MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, August 10
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Before we get into what happened in Major League Baseball last night, we’re going to talk about the Twitter “take of the day”. This should be a new regular thing on these notes - me giving my opinion about the thing people are bent out of shape about on Twitter.
Here’s the subject matter:
If you don’t want to watch it, what happened is that a little league pitcher hits the batter in the head, and then gets really upset with himself about it. He starts crying and kind of breaking down on the mound. The kid who just got plunked comes off of first base to go console and encourage him.
Let’s do a little “both sides breakdown”, since the only way to determine what side of an argument is right is to understand both sides in the first place.
The Pro-Consoling The Pitcher Side: This is a really unusual and impressive reaction from the batter to have compassion on the opponent that he really wants to beat (this is undoubtedly the biggest game/day of these kids’ lives). Being a loving, compassionate person is much more important than winning a game, and this kid is a great example for all of us on how to act.
The Anti-Consoling The Pitcher Side: This is a competition with a defined objective. The goal for these kids is to win the game, and it’s not just some small game either - it’s a huge game - if they win it they go to Williamsport to do something most kids can only dream about doing. Helping the opponent hurts your chances to accomplish your goal, and not only YOUR goal - but all of your teammates’ goals as well. You should be nice and compassionate, yes, but do it after the game - encourage the pitcher and talk to him in the handshake lineup after the game - right now the most important thing for you to do is to try to win the game (fairly and graciously) for your benefit and your teammates.
I think I have nailed the both-sides breakdown, shout out to me.
So which one is right? To me, I think the age of the kids is very important here. If this were a Major League Baseball game, it would be pretty clear-cut to me that the pitcher should get his shit together, stop crying, and the opposing team should try their best to take advantage of his current mental state.
But this isn’t the Majors, it is Little League. That makes a huge difference. In fact, the primary goal of Little League Baseball is not to win the games, even though things do get more serious and competitive in the LLWS - but still, Little League Baseball’s purpose is primarily for the kid’s enjoyment and to teach kids how to compete properly and be a part of a team.
The fact that this game is on ESPN and the Little League World Series is a big deal does slightly change things, but not nearly enough for me - I think the kid did a really good thing here and more of that should be encouraged.
That said, I don’t think Dave Portnoy’s take is like some crazy, devilish thing. He does have some half-decent point here. At some point in life, you have to just play to win the game, since that’s your team’s objective - and if an opponent is having a breakdown - you take advantage of it instead of trying to help him out of it. That’s all fair, I just don’t think these kids are that age yet.
What’s really annoying is the people on Twitter who act like Portnoy’s take is akin to terrorism or something. It is so, so lame to just dismiss someone’s opinion on something as bad or wrong or ill-intentioned without even considering what they’re arguing for. If you can’t recite the person’s argument back to them correctly and coherently, you have no business criticizing the ideas they’re presenting.
So that’s it - thanks.
Julio Urias took the cake with an elite 36.7% CSW%, striking out eight Twins and not walking anyone.
Urias had just a 20% K% over the first month, and now since May 13th he has a mark of 26%. Since June began it’s 27.7%, and since July began it’s 25.6%. He is the JA model’s #17 SP since June 1st.
Alex Cobb had another good start by the CSW% and SwStr%, but he gave up a dinger to Juan Soto and had an uncharacteristic 38.5% GB% - so the box score result wasn’t good. I’m still enthralled with the guy, and this start isn’t changing anything.
Freddy Peralta was sharp, but held to just 65 pitches - so they’re really easing him back into the fold. I’d imagine it will be at least two more starts before we can expect a full workload - and possibly more than that.
Your bottom 5 SPs yesterday (per the JA algo)
Ryan Feltner
Rich Hill
Martin Perez
Lance Lynn
Tyler Alexander
Miles Mikolas was the sixth-worst with his 22% CSW% and 5.6% SwStr%. He had one of the worst starts we’ve seen this year giving up FOURTEEN hits in 2.2 innings, a hilarious number. The Rockies had a .406 BABIP yesterday and Ryan McMahon hit a home run 495 feet. ‘Twas the second-furthest hit ball of the year:
Not a surprise that the top three there were all Coors Field bombs, but pretty interesting that it went that far despite a relatively low 110.4 exit velocity.
But this is a good time to note that there are many more factors than just launch velocity and angle that go into distance. Spin and climate play a huge factor, and just about everything was optimized on that absolute cock-rocket from McMahon last night. Majestic.
The game in Oakland was much more interesting last night. Shohei threw six scoreless innings but only struck out five hitters (wtf?).
Seth Brown barreled him up in the first inning and got thrown out at second because of the thing where you pop off the bag for a quarter-second while the tag is still on you. I was happy to see that, but honestly, I think that rule should be changed. It’s lame to be called out after you beat the tag but then popped off the base. Imagine how many thousands of times that happened before replay-review and the runner was deemed safe. I mean the injustice of it all is just too much to take, I think I need to go have a cry.
Brown is hitting .268/.317/.526 with seven dingers and a 21% K% since 7/1 though (104 PAs). He’s been on the report a lot lately with high xwOBA’s and barrel rates and stuff - and the guy can steal bags too. He’s a pretty interesting fantasy bat right now.
xwOBA Leaders Since 7/20
Aaron Judge - .585
Seth Brown - .468
Yordan Alvarez - .467
Austin Riley - .464
Eloy Jimenez - .445
J.T. Realmuto - .430
Trayce Thompson - .424
Pete Alonso - .417
Daniel Vogelbach - .414
Luke Voit - .413
HR + SB Leaders Since 7/20
Aaron Judge 14 (11+3)
Seth Brown 8 (7+1)
Mookie Betts 8 (5+3)
Matt Chapman 8 (7+1)
Jorge Mateo 8 (4+4)
Vladimir Guerrero 7 (3+4)
Shohei Ohtani 7 (6+1)
Andres Gimenez 7 (2+5)
Cedric Mullins 7 (2+5)
Alrighty, let’s get on with it!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Julio Urias (LAD): 17.8 SwStr%, 36.7 CSW%
2. Ryan Yarbrough (TB): 14.3 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
3. Alex Cobb (SF): 15.4 SwStr%, 36.3 CSW%
4. Packy Naughton (STL): 12.7 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
5. Charlie Morton (ATL): 12.5 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
6. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 11.0 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
7. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 15.4 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
8. Shane Bieber (CLE): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
9. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 19.3 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
10. Davis Martin (CWS): 16.9 SwStr%, 31.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Julio Urias - 7.0 IP - 77.0 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole - 6.67 IP - 65.75 JA Points
3. Luis Castillo - 8.0 IP - 63.5 JA Points
4. Shane Bieber - 7.0 IP - 62.75 JA Points
5. Joe Musgrove - 7.0 IP - 57.75 JA Points
6. Zack Wheeler - 6.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
7. Davis Martin - 5.67 IP - 48.0 JA Points
8. Carlos Carrasco - 6.67 IP - 46.75 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb - 5.0 IP - 44.0 JA Points
10. Freddy Peralta - 5.0 IP - 42.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13 GS - 56.81 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 22 GS - 54.39 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 19 GS - 52.76 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 21 GS - 52.71 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 22 GS - 52.14 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 23 GS - 49.02 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 15 GS - 48.45 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 22 GS - 47.72 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 16 GS - 46.61 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 17 GS - 44.41 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 84.1
Braxton Garrett's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.8
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.8
Freddy Peralta's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 75.2
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Braxton Garrett's CH usage (22.0%) up 13.0 points
Carlos Carrasco's SL usage (35.2%) up 10.6 points
Carlos Carrasco's SI usage (23.9%) up 12.7 points
Davis Martin's FF usage (51.8%) up 11.2 points
Gerrit Cole's FF usage (67.0%) up 11.6 points
Joe Musgrove's FF usage (35.8%) up 13.1 points
Jose Urquidy's CU usage (22.9%) up 10.0 points
Luis Castillo's SI usage (40.9%) up 18.3 points
Marcus Stroman's SI usage (50.0%) up 13.4 points
Mike Minor's CU usage (19.1%) up 10.5 points
Miles Mikolas's FF usage (37.5%) up 13.8 points
Rich Hill's FC usage (26.5%) up 18.9 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (46.0%) up 23.2 points
Tyler Alexander's FF usage (31.0%) up 10.2 points
Zach Thompson's CU usage (40.0%) up 25.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 30.7% K%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 30.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 70.2% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 101 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 77 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Max Fried - 79 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Kyle Wright - 79 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
George Kirby - 60 TBF, 31.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 27.2 K%, 3.9 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Brady Singer - +2.6% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +3.3% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +3.6% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.0% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +3.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Nick Pratto (KC) 8 PA, 21 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
A.J. Pollock (CWS) 9 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Keibert Ruiz (WSH) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Michael Chavis (PIT) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Rougned Odor (BAL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 8 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Yoan Moncada (CWS) 8 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Keibert Ruiz - 4.0 PA - 76.0 JA Points
2. Juan Soto - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
3. Randal Grichuk - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
4. Seiya Suzuki - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. Michael Chavis - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
6. Rougned Odor - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Nick Pratto - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
8. Taylor Ward - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Jake Fraley - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Vinnie Pasquantino - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 385.0 PA - 153.66 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 467.0 PA - 142.7 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 462.0 PA - 133.33 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 368.0 PA - 115.54 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 482.0 PA - 114.19 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 446.0 PA - 107.89 JA Points
7. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 443.0 PA - 104.56 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
9. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 257.0 PA - 100.23 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 392.0 PA - 97.65 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 113.6mph - field_out
Joey Gallo (LAD) - 112.3mph - double
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 111.9mph - foul
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.7mph - double
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.2mph - single
Darin Ruf (NYM) - 111.1mph - field_out
C.J. Cron (COL) - 111.0mph - home_run
C.J. Cron (COL) - 110.8mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.6mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.6mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 84 PA, 48 BIP, 17 Brls, 35.4 Brl%
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 51 BIP, 14 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 73 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 70 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 51 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Seth Brown - 51 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 67 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 65 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 51 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 73 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 84 PA, 0.585 xwOBA
Seth Brown - 51 PA, 0.468 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 73 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 65 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 56 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Trayce Thompson - 52 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 73 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Eric Hosmer - 48 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Daniel Vogelbach - 50 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 62 PA, 115 Swings, 94.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 83 PA, 135 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 143 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 58 PA, 114 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 91 PA, 153 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 69 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Myles Straw - 68 PA, 100 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 64 PA, 110 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 57 PA, 102 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 52 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 54 PA, 11.1 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Daulton Varsho - 65 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 65 PA, 16.9 K%, 22.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 56 PA, 14.3 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 56 PA, 19.6 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 73 PA, 15.1 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Seth Brown - 51 PA, 17.6 K%, 22.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jo Adell - +4.6% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -9.9 Chase%
Tyler O'Neill - +12.0% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.445 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 81.7% Contact%, 15.7% Chase%, 9.1% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.424 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 78.5% Contact%, 16.8% Chase%, 12.8% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.383 xwOBA, 12.7% Brl%, 90.0% Contact%, 22.3% Chase%, 10.4% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.459 xwOBA, 23.7% Brl%, 82.1% Contact%, 20.9% Chase%, 17.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Eugenio Suarez - 33.9% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.908 Cold Rating
Josh H. Smith - 30.9% Whiff%, 85.0% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Leody Taveras - 39.6% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Victor Robles - 36.2% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 31.6% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Ramon Urias - 33.7% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Ian Happ - 34.3% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 33.8% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 36.3% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Cal Raleigh - 30.0% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.845 Cold Rating
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