MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, June 15
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Little bit later on the notes here because I was finishing up the repair job on my sprinkler system. Last winter, like an idiot, I didn’t shut off the water - so we had a classic freeze-and-burst situation that destroyed my BACKFLOW PREVENTER VALVE. So I had to replace that last night, and this morning I was fighting against the TEST COCKS (lmao!) to try to figure out how to shut them off - but everything is working great now and my grass is being watered - which is clutch because it’s hot as hell out here and several patches of my grass died while I was away for two weeks.
Important to note that when I say “I had to replace it last night”, I really mean that my father-in-law did most of the work - so shout out to that guy! I’m not a total idiot at home repair stuff, but I’m still in my first decade of the home-owning game so I’ve got a lot to learn and more experiences to encounter. My in-laws live like 200 yards from us, which most people wouldn’t like - but we love it. They’re great people and help us a ton with the kids and with all the other goings-on of life. Life is great.
The hitter of the day was Paul Goldschmidt, hitting three homers - but again it took him two games to do it, and both games were against the Pirates - so who even cares.
Rhys Hoskins also had himself a ball game with four hits and two doinkers, he’s hitting .354/.446/.750 with five homers and a 14% Brl% this month. Even so, he’s only third on his own team in JA points this month, with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper also going crazy this month. That’s a pretty scary lineup right now, here are more of those June numbers for this trio:
The Phillies as a team are slugging .526 this month, fourth-best in the league (ATL, TOR, NYY). They’ve hit 24 homers, 15 of which coming from the three we mentioned. They also just aren’t striking out at just 19.7%. Imagine if Nick Castellanos ever gets his stuff together! I’d avoid starting average SPs against the Phillies moving forward.
Shane Bieber had another marvelous start, this time in Coors, although a last-minute homer from Blackmon kinda soiled his box score line. He went for a 36.2% CSW% and an 11.4% SwStr% with a 52% GB% - a good recipe for success. He’s been elite lately and you’ll see that reflected in the notes below.
Tyler Mahle threw nine innings of shutout ball and did not win, he struck out a dozen batters on an elite 15% SwStr% and didn’t walk a single batters. Things have really corrected for him lately, he has a 32% CSW%, a 15% SwStr%, and a 5% Brl% over his last five starts. You have been rewarded for holding on through the tough patch or acquiring him on the cheap. Good to see, but quite a bad beat there on the Reds not being able to scratch a single run out for him.
New RotoBaller post up as my writing heavy week continues: Starting Pitcher Luck Analysis
Okay now to the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber (CLE): 11.4 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
2. Logan Webb (SF): 17.9 SwStr%, 35.7 CSW%
3. Tyler Mahle (CIN): 15.1 SwStr%, 35.3 CSW%
4. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 17.9 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
5. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 17.9 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
6. Corey Kluber (TB): 7.5 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 12.0 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
8. Zach Davies (ARI): 11.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
9. Jordan Lyles (BAL): 14.6 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
10. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 14.7 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Tyler Mahle - 9.0 IP - 103.5 JA Points
2. Logan Webb - 6.67 IP - 80.0 JA Points
3. Chris Bassitt - 8.0 IP - 69.75 JA Points
4. Gerrit Cole - 6.0 IP - 66.25 JA Points
5. Kyle Hendricks - 5.0 IP - 62.0 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease - 5.0 IP - 61.5 JA Points
7. Miles Mikolas - 8.67 IP - 60.25 JA Points
8. Max Fried - 5.67 IP - 50.75 JA Points
9. Jordan Lyles - 5.33 IP - 47.75 JA Points
10. Zach Davies - 6.67 IP - 45.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 12 GS - 55.49 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 12 GS - 53.65 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 13 GS - 51.5 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 3 GS - 50.92 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 13 GS - 47.77 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 7 GS - 46.62 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Luis Severino (NYY) - 11 GS - 45.82 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 10 GS - 45.69 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kris Bubic's CH velo (25 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.1
Kris Bubic's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 80.5
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.0
Kris Bubic's FF velo (55 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.0
Matthew Liberatore's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.3
Nick Pivetta's KC velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 78.2
Zach Eflin's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 76.8
Yusei Kikuchi's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.8
Nick Pivetta's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.4
Zach Eflin's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.2
Bryse Wilson's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -4.1mph to 82.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Drew Hutchison's SI usage (21.0%) up 17.4 points
Jared Koenig's SI usage (40.6%) up 14.3 points
Joe Ryan's FF usage (68.9%) up 12.7 points
Jose Urquidy's SL usage (31.0%) up 25.0 points
Jose Urquidy's CU usage (22.6%) up 10.4 points
Kris Bubic's FF usage (57.9%) up 10.3 points
Kyle Hendricks's CH usage (39.7%) up 10.5 points
Matthew Liberatore's SL usage (19.0%) up 12.9 points
Max Fried's SL usage (32.7%) up 11.2 points
Tony Gonsolin's FF usage (48.8%) up 13.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 69 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 78 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 69 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Luis Severino - 70 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 70 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 87 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Severino - 70 TBF, 40.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 69 TBF, 36.2% K%
Spencer Strider - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 35.4% K%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 34.0% K%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Shane McClanahan - 78 TBF, 30.8% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Severino - 70 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 78 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 81 TBF, 69.2% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Jason Alexander - 74 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 90 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 92 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Dane Dunning - 93 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 27.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 65.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 57.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7 K%, 7.0 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.8 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Walker Buehler - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Tyler Mahle - +2.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.5% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.6% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +3.8% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Paul Blackburn - +2.3% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 9 PA, 17 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Austin Hays (BAL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Avisail Garcia (MIA) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luke Voit (SD) 6 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Chapman (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Harris II (ATL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mike Moustakas (CIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nick Senzel (CIN) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Paul Goldschmidt - 5.0 PA - 101.0 JA Points
2. Rhys Hoskins - 5.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
3. Brendan Donovan - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
4. Willson Contreras - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Stephen Vogt - 3.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. Ryan Mountcastle - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Robert Refsnyder - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Jorge Alfaro - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Marcell Ozuna - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. Jacob Stallings - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 235.0 PA - 150.13 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 244.0 PA - 137.54 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 256.0 PA - 135.0 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 268.0 PA - 126.12 JA Points
5. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 162.0 PA - 125.93 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 277.0 PA - 115.81 JA Points
7. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 187.0 PA - 113.8 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 196.0 PA - 108.16 JA Points
9. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 255.0 PA - 107.61 JA Points
10. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 248.0 PA - 105.81 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Amed Rosario (CLE) - 115.8mph - double
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 114.4mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 113.7mph - foul
Josh Naylor (CLE) - 112.4mph - double
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 111.8mph - single
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 111.6mph - single
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 110.8mph - nan
Ian Happ (CHC) - 110.4mph - field_out
Corey Seager (TEX) - 110.1mph - double
Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 109.9mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 87 PA, 48 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Jake Burger - 64 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 64 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 57 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.8 Brl%
Austin Riley - 89 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 67 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 69 PA, 47 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 68 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
William Contreras - 54 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 52 PA, 77 Swings, 96.1 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 113 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 58 PA, 95 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 73 PA, 118 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 73 PA, 104 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 86 PA, 156 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 64 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 75 PA, 112 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 53 PA, 90 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 76 PA, 132 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 58 PA, 12.1 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Joey Votto - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 84 PA, 13.1 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 84 PA, 19.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 87 PA, 18.4 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 69 PA, 18.8 K%, 19.1 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Will Smith - 72 PA, 12.5 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 77 PA, 18.2 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 10.3 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jake Cronenworth - +3.3% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +4.9% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -9.4 Chase%
Carlos Santana - +7.4% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -6.5 Chase%
Ian Happ - +9.9% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -4.2 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Michael Chavis - 36.8% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.949 Cold Rating
Julio Rodriguez - 36.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.946 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 46.6% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.924 Cold Rating
Jeff McNeil - 31.0% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 30.9% Whiff%, 73.5% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Nelson Cruz - 38.9% Whiff%, 65.7% Weak%, 0.847 Cold Rating
Kevin Kiermaier - 30.0% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.847 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 36.6% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 34.2% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.828 Cold Rating
Cody Bellinger - 31.8% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.824 Cold Rating
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