MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, June 22
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Welcome back to the notes, lots to cover today!
First, new episode of the podcast is up!
Second, shame! I put out one of the worst DraftKings lineups of the year last night. Ate horrible starts from Cortes and Strider, and nobody on the offensive side did anything besides Ohtani, who literally scored half of the lineup’s total points. Now we’re down money on the experiment (-$10), which makes me look like a real schmuck. Hopefully, we can get that back positive soon so I don’t lose all my subscribers and starve to death.
Hitter of the day is Bobby Witt Jr. who had the third-highest daily JA score of the season last night. His day went like this:
28 pitches seen
15 swings
5 balls in play
9 foul balls
1 whiff
3 barrels
2 HR
1 line drive
4 fly balls
All told that’s 99 JA points! Only Paul Goldschmidt (6/14) and Trevor Story (5/29) have bested that mark, and Willy Adames (4/26) tied it once.
Witt now has a .243/.285/.458 line with 10 homers, a 10% Brl%, a 44% hard-hit%, a 24.4% K%, and a 73.5% contact rate to go along with 10 steals. A blooming fantasy stud, to be sure!
On the pitching side, Dylan Cease racked up 20 swinging-strikes and struck out 11 batters. Zac Gallen also had his best whiff start of the year with 18 whiffs and 11 strikeouts.
Gallen’s been all over the place this year, and he’s always been a tough guy to figure out. For the year his numbers don’t look all that great
27.4% CSW%
10.5% SwStr%
24.5% K%
6.6% BB%
47.6% GB%
8.4% Brl%
But he’s one of those guys that puts up good starts without the gaudy numbers underneath. He depends a ton on location and deception, and for the year he’s been a good fantasy starter for your team - so I would continue to roll him out there if you have him.
Kevin Gausman got his mojo back a bit with a 17.8% SwStr% yesterday, and the splitter was once again dominant with a 37.5% SwStr% and a 41.7% CSW%. Those were the pitches best marks since April, so a good thing to see there.
We hit both strikeout props picks that we mentioned here, so hopefully you got in on that. We’re on a pretty good streak in that regard, and I like two more today:
Should be a fun day of baseball ahead - thanks again for being here!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Civale (CLE): 13.8 SwStr%, 38.8 CSW%
2. Dylan Cease (CWS): 19.8 SwStr%, 36.6 CSW%
3. Martin Perez (TEX): 11.2 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
4. Rich Hill (BOS): 13.3 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Zac Gallen (ARI): 15.7 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
6. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 9.6 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
7. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 21.8 SwStr%, 32.2 CSW%
8. Matt Swarmer (CHC): 14.4 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 17.8 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
10. Daniel Castano (MIA): 10.0 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease - 5.67 IP - 93.25 JA Points
2. Zac Gallen - 5.67 IP - 66.0 JA Points
3. Joe Ryan - 5.67 IP - 59.25 JA Points
4. James Kaprielian - 5.33 IP - 50.25 JA Points
5. Tony Gonsolin - 5.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
6. Jose Urquidy - 6.0 IP - 44.25 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman - 5.67 IP - 44.0 JA Points
8. Martin Perez - 6.0 IP - 41.75 JA Points
9. Matt Swarmer - 4.0 IP - 39.25 JA Points
10. Aaron Civale - 5.0 IP - 37.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 14 GS - 56.78 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 14 GS - 53.89 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 14 GS - 53.79 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 5 GS - 52.32 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 14 GS - 48.45 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 8 GS - 46.64 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 9 GS - 45.62 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 13 GS - 45.12 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 79.9
Kevin Gausman's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 86.1
Dylan Cease's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 82.6
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.5
Kevin Gausman's FF velo (48 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 96.5
Kevin Gausman's FS velo (24 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.5
Sean Manaea's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.1
Trevor Williams's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.2
Jack Flaherty's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.2
Joe Ryan's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.8
Spencer Strider's FF velo (49 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 96.7
Jack Flaherty's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 90.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's SI usage (30.4%) up 13.7 points
Chi Chi Gonzalez's SL usage (44.3%) up 16.9 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (49.5%) up 11.2 points
Jack Flaherty's SI usage (18.3%) up 14.7 points
James Kaprielian's SL usage (42.7%) up 19.4 points
Jordan Lyles's FF usage (43.5%) up 15.2 points
Jose Urquidy's FF usage (69.2%) up 10.1 points
Kevin Gausman's SL usage (27.1%) up 14.5 points
Matt Swarmer's SL usage (63.3%) up 10.8 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (52.4%) up 11.1 points
Tony Gonsolin's SL usage (36.8%) up 14.5 points
Trevor Williams's FF usage (63.9%) up 14.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 74 TBF, 38.8% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 96 TBF, 38.6% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 96 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 79 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 87 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 89 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 106 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 74 TBF, 39.2% K%
Dylan Cease - 87 TBF, 36.8% K%
Hunter Greene - 79 TBF, 36.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 34.6% K%
Shane Bieber - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Shane McClanahan - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 30.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 74 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 79 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 111 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 23.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 74.0% GB%
Justin Steele - 78 TBF, 63.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 72 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 79 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Kyle Wright - 106 TBF, 57.7% GB%
David Peterson - 73 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 75 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Jason Alexander - 100 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Carrasco - 101 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Charlie Morton - 74 TBF, 39.2 K%, 5.4 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 30.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 89 TBF, 34.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 79 TBF, 29.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 59.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 57.4% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +2.0% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Shane Bieber - +4.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Kyle Wright - +2.3% CSW%, -6.6 BB%
Carlos Carrasco - +2.1% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Jordan Montgomery - +3.0% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Charlie Morton - +7.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.3% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Johan Oviedo - +3.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Trent Thornton - +4.0% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Chi Chi Gonzalez - +2.6% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 5 PA, 15 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Christian Vazquez (BOS) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jared Walsh (LAA) 6 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Javier Baez (DET) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ryan McMahon (COL) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 6 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Bobby Witt Jr. - 5.0 PA - 97.0 JA Points
2. Isaac Paredes - 4.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
3. Nolan Gorman - 4.0 PA - 66.0 JA Points
4. Ryan McMahon - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
5. Patrick Wisdom - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
6. Javier Baez - 5.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
7. Matt Olson - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
8. Jared Walsh - 6.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
9. Pete Alonso - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 250.0 PA - 148.0 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 283.0 PA - 130.04 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 262.0 PA - 126.87 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 214.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points
5. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 198.0 PA - 115.35 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 291.0 PA - 115.05 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 302.0 PA - 111.26 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 239.0 PA - 110.79 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 219.0 PA - 109.22 JA Points
10. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 257.0 PA - 108.64 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 113.6mph - foul
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 113.5mph - home_run
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 113.2mph - single
C.J. Cron (COL) - 112.3mph - foul
Jared Walsh (LAA) - 112.1mph - double
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 112.0mph - double
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.8mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.7mph - single
Franmil Reyes (CLE) - 111.7mph - home_run
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.6mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Christian Bethancourt - 49 PA, 34 BIP, 10 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 54 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 55 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 87 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 77 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Jake Burger - 60 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 70 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 73 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 77 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 59 PA, 91 Swings, 93.4 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 56 PA, 94 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 71 PA, 100 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 65 PA, 122 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 66 PA, 116 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 81 PA, 127 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 68 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 67 PA, 125 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 72 PA, 122 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 55 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 71 PA, 14.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 63 PA, 11.1 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Jace Peterson - 58 PA, 19.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 49 PA, 16.3 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 90 PA, 14.4 K%, 14.1 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 85 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 85 PA, 18.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 93 PA, 18.3 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Will Smith - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 69 PA, 8.7 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Brendan Rodgers - +4.9% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -14.9 Chase%
Geraldo Perdomo - +3.3% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
Manny Machado - +17.1% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -12.0 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Max Stassi - 36.6% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.941 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 37.5% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Eduardo Escobar - 36.4% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Harold Ramirez - 30.7% Whiff%, 82.8% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
George Springer - 36.4% Whiff%, 69.4% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Jordan Luplow - 35.0% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
Jonathan Villar - 31.6% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.834 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 33.3% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating
Jorge Soler - 33.7% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.825 Cold Rating
Jason Heyward - 30.3% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.821 Cold Rating
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