MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, June 29
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
I don’t think we give enough credence to randomness in life. Over the last several years, I’ve gotten really, really into the data side of life, putting things into numerical form and using that dimension to try to figure things out. That approach has filtered into all aspects of my life, I look at things much differently than I did before - and I probably look at things way, way differently than most or all of you just given my brain wiring, or whatever.
I am lucky that for whatever reason I haven’t fallen into the trap of thinking everything (or even most things, or even half of things) have an explanation. We see all the time that people let our progress in science and research and development make them insanely arrogant - they think they know and can explain and predict how things work and will work, and that bloats their ego to the point where they think they can instruct the world on how things should be done in order to get to the desired endpoint. Except they don’t know know what they don’t know, they see the tip of the iceberg and ignore what is below the water. Science can only tell you so much, we need to have a much greater reverence for the unknown and for randomness.
A solid book on the subject that I read recently:
I say all of this to transition into what Patrick Corbin did last night. He threw 117 pitches and struck out 12 Pirates over eight innings in a winning effort. He racked up 20 swings and misses. He scored 39.8 DraftKings points after averaging 7.8 for the season and having just one other start above 20 this season.
The 20 whiffs were his most since September 17, 2019. He hadn’t struck out double-digit batters since that same day. His slider, which he threw 51 times (43.5% usage) went for a 29.4% SwStr% and a 51% CSW%. Those marks on the slider prior to this start were 16.1% SwStr% and 26.9% CSW%. Some combination of these three things happened last night
His slider was working great, he had a great feel for it and was disguising and locating it well
The Pirates helped him out by being awful
Lots of positive randomness went Corbin’s way
I would do absolutely nothing about this start other than to be sure to stack against him next start even harder to take advantage of the depressed ownership on that stack given this start.
Luis Castillo led the way in whiffs with 23, striking out 11. He threw 57 four-seam fastballs and got a swing and miss on 19 of them, which is absolutely ridiculous. That was the most whiffs on a four-seamer of the entire season, here’s that top 5
Luis Castillo 6/28: 19 Whiffs
Carlos Rodon 4/20: 17 Whiffs
Lance Lynn 6/25: 16 Whiffs
Carlos Rodon 5/9: 16 Whiffs
Gerrit Cole 5/8: 14 Whiffs
That total was tied for ninth-most since 2018 (James Paxton on 5/2/2018 got 25 whiffs on his four-seamer).
So that won’t happen ever again for Luis Castillo. Interestingly, he didn’t get a single whiff on the changeup (18 offerings), which has come to be his best pitch over his career. For the year, his changeup is his most commonly thrown pitch and has a strong (but short of elite) 14.6% SwStr%, and the four-seamer now has a 21.0% SwStr% mark (still incredibly unsustainable).
So what do we take from this start? It’s all positive. It’s great to see him able to dominate even without the changeup working, and even more interesting to see him really evenly distributing his four pitches this year. Here’s how many times he’s thrown each pitch this year.
Changeup: 274
Four-Seam: 267
Sinker: 253
Slider: 220
What’s that? You want a pie graph? What are you, twelve?
Four pitches, all serving their own purpose - and all pretty good. I like Castillo moving forward, but I do think the walks will continue to keep him out of top-ten territory.
Brandon Woodruff was also very, very good yesterday - so you can start him with ace-level confidence again if you weren’t already. And shoutout to Jon Gray who has been awesome lately and is now a Magic Formula qualifier! He’s taken full advantage of a soft schedule, so it will be good to see what he can do against the Mets this weekend in his first real challenge in awhile.
On the hitting side, the great Shohei Ohtani led the way with three barrels, a dinger, two doubles, and 84 JA points - and he starts on the bump tonight. Life is great. Ohtani leads the league in barrels (14) and barrel rate (28%) over the last three weeks, and he’s hitting .354 with a 22% K and a 12% BB% over that time.
Robert Refsnyder also barreled two up as the Red Sox lead-off hitter, but who cares about that!
Adley Rutschman shows up in the Magic Formula qualifiers today, which is scary for me given this tweet from May:
He’s hitting .228/.296/.421 right now, making me okay on average and OBP, but the slugging has been much better than I expected. He has three homers and a 7.8% Brl% in his 125 plate appearances while keeping the strikeout rate below 20%. Over the last three weeks, he’s gone .305/.359/.627 with three homers, a 14% Brl%, and a 14% K% - so that’s a really, really good stretch of games (64 PAs).
Again, there’s nothing to do about this. If you spent significant draft capital on Rutschman this year, I think you’re doing this all wrong - but it’s been working out well for you this month, at least. #NeverCatcher.
On the daily gambling side of things, I once again failed to get there in the Relay Throw DraftKings tournament, but our lineup cashed in the double-up. I’ve decided now that those big tournaments are just too top-heavy cash wise, so it’s not a good idea for a cash lineup - we’re going to pivot to playing smaller contests again.
One of my readers has been betting and tracking total base bets using my Total Base Prop Comparison Sheet (for paid subs only!), and he has found that if you had bet the over on my top five differentials each night over the last two weeks, you would have gone 44-18 in bets (a 71% win rate). So that’s cool. Today’s top five:
Jesse Winker (over 0.5 TB, -190)
Eugenio Suarez (over 0.5 TB, -155)
Jack Suwinski (over 0.5 TB, -180)
Gavin Sheets (over 0.5 TB, -125)
Brandon Belt (over 0.5 TB, -150)
Alrighty, now we can get into the usual stuff
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 17.7 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
2. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 22.4 SwStr%, 39.5 CSW%
3. Keegan Thompson (CHC): 12.8 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
4. Trevor Williams (NYM): 19.6 SwStr%, 35.3 CSW%
5. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 14.3 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
6. Devin Smeltzer (MIN): 12.6 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
7. Zach Plesac (CLE): 17.9 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 18.3 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
9. Robbie Ray (SEA): 17.3 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
10. Luis Castillo (CIN): 18.7 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Brandon Woodruff - 5.0 IP - 87.75 JA Points
2. Patrick Corbin - 8.0 IP - 86.25 JA Points
3. Luis Castillo - 5.67 IP - 83.0 JA Points
4. Devin Smeltzer - 6.0 IP - 65.25 JA Points
5. Zack Wheeler - 6.33 IP - 63.25 JA Points
6. Jon Gray - 7.0 IP - 61.75 JA Points
7. Robbie Ray - 7.0 IP - 60.25 JA Points
8. Jose Quintana - 6.0 IP - 55.5 JA Points
9. Sean Manaea - 6.0 IP - 51.25 JA Points
10. Shane Baz - 5.67 IP - 48.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 15 GS - 55.71 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 15 GS - 55.02 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 15 GS - 54.64 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 6 GS - 51.09 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 10 GS - 50.03 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 15 GS - 48.15 JA Points
7. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 12 GS - 47.24 JA Points
8. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 8 GS - 46.64 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 15 GS - 46.14 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Sean Manaea's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 83.6
Jaime Barria's SI velo (15 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 93.7
Patrick Corbin's SI velo (29 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 94.1
Jaime Barria's SL velo (33 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.0
Brandon Woodruff's SI velo (24 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 97.2
Brandon Woodruff's FF velo (27 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 97.7
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.1
Patrick Corbin's FF velo (30 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.2
Zac Gallen's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.5
Konnor Pilkington's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 74.8
Carlos Rodon's FF velo (50 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 93.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Carrasco's SL usage (33.8%) up 10.1 points
Chase Silseth's SL usage (29.2%) up 10.4 points
Dakota Hudson's SL usage (43.0%) up 15.1 points
Devin Smeltzer's SL usage (23.2%) up 15.2 points
Framber Valdez's FC usage (16.5%) up 10.4 points
JP Sears's CH usage (26.9%) up 17.8 points
Johnny Cueto's SL usage (38.1%) up 17.3 points
Josh Winder's FF usage (51.9%) up 13.6 points
Luis Castillo's FF usage (46.3%) up 22.7 points
Patrick Corbin's SL usage (45.1%) up 12.9 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (36.7%) up 26.7 points
Trevor Williams's SI usage (21.6%) up 10.6 points
Zac Gallen's FF usage (60.6%) up 13.4 points
Zach Plesac's SL usage (33.7%) up 10.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 102 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 101 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 97 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 75 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Jon Gray - 97 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 102 TBF, 36.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 35.1% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Max Fried - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Luis Garcia - 101 TBF, 30.7% K%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 102 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Max Fried - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 110 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Luis Garcia - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Andre Pallante - 79 TBF, 63.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 76 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 121 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Mitch Keller - 92 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 78 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 75 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Alex Wood - 81 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Blake Snell - 73 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 55.4% GB%
Jon Gray - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Max Fried - 100 TBF, 31.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 32.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 72 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 93 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Miles Mikolas - +3.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.5% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Luis Garcia - +4.9% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.7% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Jon Gray - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.1% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Dylan Cease - +3.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Keegan Thompson - +3.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +2.6% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.2% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +4.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +3.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Chris Archer - +4.3% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Trent Thornton - +3.5% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Byron Buxton (MIN) 6 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Carlos Correa (MIN) 9 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Robert Refsnyder (BOS) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani - 4.0 PA - 84.0 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez - 5.0 PA - 76.0 JA Points
3. Matt Olson - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
4. Jose Abreu - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Robert Refsnyder - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
6. Julio Rodriguez - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
7. Carlos Correa - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
8. Yuli Gurriel - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
9. Josh Harrison - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
10. Brandon Drury - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 272.0 PA - 155.74 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 236.0 PA - 137.12 JA Points
3. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 320.0 PA - 124.88 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 315.0 PA - 124.06 JA Points
5. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 295.0 PA - 113.9 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 313.0 PA - 112.97 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 326.0 PA - 112.52 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 276.0 PA - 111.45 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 247.0 PA - 111.09 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 275.0 PA - 109.53 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 115.2mph - double
Luis Robert (CWS) - 113.5mph - double
Trevor Story (BOS) - 113.4mph - home_run
Tommy Edman (STL) - 111.8mph - double
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.5mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.4mph - home_run
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.0mph - double
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 110.9mph - single
Luis Robert (CWS) - 110.8mph - home_run
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 110.8mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 76 PA, 50 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 65 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 82 PA, 55 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.6 Brl%
Christian Bethancourt - 57 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 73 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 54 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Luke Voit - 83 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 66 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 59 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 91 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
J.P. Crawford - 78 PA, 139 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 85 PA, 145 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 57 PA, 114 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 57 PA, 95 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 69 PA, 101 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Harold Castro - 52 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 69 PA, 117 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 53 PA, 97 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 47 PA, 72 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Pavin Smith - 49 PA, 95 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Adley Rutschman - 64 PA, 14.1 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Alejandro Kirk - 65 PA, 10.8 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Corey Seager - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Josh Bell - 81 PA, 16.0 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 70 PA, 8.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 81 PA, 18.5 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 74 PA, 14.9 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 72 PA, 19.4 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 88 PA, 19.3 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Will Smith - 77 PA, 9.1 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 63 PA, 19.0 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jose Abreu - +8.6% Contact%, +6.2 mph exit velo, -9.3 Chase%
Kole Calhoun - +9.0% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -7.1 Chase%
Shohei Ohtani - +3.9% Contact%, +8.2 mph exit velo, -10.3 Chase%
Randy Arozarena - +6.6% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Jonah Heim - +9.6% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -6.2 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
George Springer - 41.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.962 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 33.8% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.939 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 34.4% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.93 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 36.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Jake Burger - 35.6% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.898 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 32.4% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Jackie Bradley Jr. - 32.9% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Eduardo Escobar - 31.2% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Christian Bethancourt - 39.1% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.842 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 38.7% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.84 Cold Rating
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