MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, June 8
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Special birthday shout out to my dad, who absolutely does not read any of these posts. What up, Dad!
Wonder if he tells his friends that his son is a fantasy baseball writer, PROBABLY! Dads are crazy important though. Did you ever hear the stat that 85% of people in prison didn’t have a dad in the house while growing up?
Pretty striking stuff. We do all of this fighting about what legal and political things to do to try to fix the problems we have, but it’s pretty rare that anybody talks about the personal responsibility that men have to their children. I mean, obviously, it’s easier to pass a law then to change how tens of millions of men behave - so I’m not saying we shouldn’t focus on the stuff we’re focused on right now - but if we could just get back to every kid having a mom and a dad in the house while they grow up, I think a ton of these problems recede in a major way.
Anyways, if you could all wish my dad a Happy Birthday in the comments of this post, that would be great. He wouldn’t see any of those well wishes, but I would find that pretty funny.
A quick reminder that we have a nice strikeout prop comparison sheet going for premium subs. It looks at my projection and compares to DraftKings and FanDuel sports books to highlight the biggest differences. Here’s a look at the biggest differentials for today:
So you can see that Chris Archer on FanDuel is a pretty good bet right now (that may get moved to 4.5 soon), although the juiced line of -164 takes a lot of it away. Anyways, I think it’s a good tool if you’re into strikeout props betting.
We’re talking about Graham Ashcraft again today, because he posted another elite SwStr% with his slider last night.
It was 21% on 29 sliders last night, which makes me very excited for this guy.
He was really into the cutter last night, but he’s been more than willing to throw the sinker this year as well - so he really is a guy with two variations of the fastball, which I personally just love to see. They are both insanely quick and he gets a ton of ground-balls on both. Two solid fastball variations to keep hitters guessing, and then a wipeout slider - that’s the recipe for an ace. I’m not sure if the slider success will continue given what we saw in his first two outings and the lack of completely dominance in the minors, but hey that’s two great marks in a row so pick this guy up.
Here’s how he threw his pitches last night, for funsies:
How can the hitter of the day not be Marcus Semien? He hit three homers and stole a base, although it take him TWO GAMES to do it - weenie!
His SLG bottomed out at .209 on May 17th. Since then he has hit .310/.365/.563 with six dingers, an 84% contact%, and a 13.5% K%. He’s doing the same Semien-thing as last year, hitting homers without a high barrel rate (just 8% even through this heater)
He hasn’t been striking out much all year, so that hasn’t been the key cog in the change. The launch angle profile doesn’t look much different either:
You can see he’s turned some pop-ups in fly-balls since May 17th, so that’s obviously a very good thing - but nothing is insanely different. He has hit the ball harder, for sure, averaging 3 extra mph on the average exit velo and the hard hit rate has come up a dozen points. He’s swinging better now, but a lot of this just seems to be about the bad luck turning into good luck.
The elite homer production he’s shown this month just isn’t something sustainable - I know I probably would have been saying that during the entire 2021 season and would’ve been perpetually eating a hat. But with the new ballpark and new ball and all of this business, I just can’t see it. His six homers have been hit at
97.6 mph
99.5 mph
100.2 mph
100.6 mph
101.5 mph
103.3 mph
The average exit velocity of homers hit this season is 104.5, with the 25th percentile mark being 101.8. So Semien hasn’t reached the average even once on his six homers, giving him very little room for error. To me, he’s still a batting average, runs, and steals guy only. I might even be looking to trade him right now if someone will think he’s firmly back to 2021 form.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Wright (ATL): 20.0 SwStr%, 37.1 CSW%
2. Yu Darvish (SD): 16.0 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
3. Tarik Skubal (DET): 20.7 SwStr%, 35.9 CSW%
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 16.7 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
5. Michael Kopech (CWS): 13.3 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
6. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 5.4 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
7. Dakota Hudson (STL): 13.8 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
8. Cole Irvin (OAK): 15.7 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. Mitch White (LAD): 14.5 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
10. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 13.2 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal - 6.67 IP - 83.25 JA Points
2. Justin Verlander - 7.0 IP - 81.25 JA Points
3. Michael Kopech - 6.0 IP - 78.0 JA Points
4. Kyle Wright - 8.0 IP - 75.25 JA Points
5. Yu Darvish - 7.0 IP - 70.5 JA Points
6. Ranger Suarez - 7.0 IP - 57.5 JA Points
7. Dakota Hudson - 7.0 IP - 57.0 JA Points
8. Mitch White - 5.0 IP - 47.25 JA Points
9. Graham Ashcraft - 5.67 IP - 43.0 JA Points
10. Taylor Hearn - 5.67 IP - 41.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 11 GS - 55.82 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 11 GS - 54.25 JA Points
3. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
4. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 11 GS - 49.74 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 11 GS - 49.2 JA Points
6. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 6 GS - 47.75 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 11 GS - 47.09 JA Points
8. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8 GS - 46.79 JA Points
9. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 9 GS - 46.63 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Garrett Whitlock's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 85.8
Graham Ashcraft's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 87.4
Jeffrey Springs's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 85.9
Cal Quantrill's FC velo (33 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 89.1
Caleb Smith's FF velo (37 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.5
Mitch White's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.1
Edward Cabrera's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.4
Cole Irvin's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 76.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brad Keller's FF usage (41.8%) up 11.4 points
Caleb Smith's CH usage (35.9%) up 17.3 points
Chris Flexen's FC usage (46.4%) up 11.2 points
Cole Sands's CH usage (26.6%) up 17.3 points
Edward Cabrera's CU usage (28.9%) up 20.4 points
German Marquez's SI usage (41.0%) up 25.7 points
Graham Ashcraft's SL usage (38.2%) up 10.0 points
Jameson Taillon's CH usage (19.5%) up 11.1 points
Jon Gray's CU usage (13.4%) up 10.3 points
Jose Suarez's CU usage (37.4%) up 15.1 points
Justin Verlander's CU usage (29.6%) up 11.6 points
Keegan Thompson's SI usage (14.3%) up 10.9 points
Kyle Bradish's CH usage (22.9%) up 13.6 points
Taijuan Walker's SL usage (23.3%) up 11.3 points
Yu Darvish's SI usage (22.0%) up 14.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 84 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 98 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 86 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 102 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 83 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 81 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 97 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Zack Wheeler - 102 TBF, 34.3% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 33.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Cristian Javier - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Shane Bieber - 84 TBF, 31.0% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 81 TBF, 30.9% K%
Justin Verlander - 108 TBF, 29.6% K%
Frankie Montas - 85 TBF, 29.4% K%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 29.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 102 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 86 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 87 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 81 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 84 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 108 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Ranger Suarez - 83 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 111 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 91 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 103 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Walker Buehler - 86 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 91 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Kyle Wright - 97 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Martin Perez - 111 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 98 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 35.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 68.9% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 33.3 K%, 2.9 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 81 TBF, 30.9 K%, 3.7 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 86 TBF, 33.7 K%, 4.7 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 34.3 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 52.9% GB%
Tony Gonsolin - 63 TBF, 30.2 K%, 3.2 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 102 TBF, 34.3 K%, 3.9 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Christopher Morel (CHC) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jorge Soler (MIA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Garcia (WSH) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Marcus Semien (TEX) 9 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Marcus Semien - 5.0 PA - 86.0 JA Points
2. Jurickson Profar - 5.0 PA - 73.0 JA Points
3. Bo Bichette - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
4. Nick Fortes - 4.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
5. Anthony Santander - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. D.J. LeMahieu - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
7. Tommy Pham - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
8. Sean Murphy - 3.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
9. Mike Trout - 2.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
10. Jorge Polanco - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 209.0 PA - 150.24 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 219.0 PA - 141.92 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 229.0 PA - 132.93 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 158.0 PA - 127.85 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 171.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points
6. Joc Pederson (SF) - 156.0 PA - 115.13 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 251.0 PA - 113.31 JA Points
8. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 226.0 PA - 113.1 JA Points
9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 239.0 PA - 111.8 JA Points
10. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 186.0 PA - 104.95 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 114.7mph - home_run
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.8mph - home_run
Luis Garcia (WSH) - 113.4mph - home_run
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 112.5mph - double
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.3mph - nan
Javier Baez (DET) - 112.1mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.8mph - home_run
Jake Burger (CWS) - 111.7mph - double
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.6mph - single
Mike Trout (LAA) - 111.1mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 82 PA, 42 BIP, 13 Brls, 31.0 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 57 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 56 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Austin Riley - 84 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 52 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Trevor Story - 83 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 69 PA, 126 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 58 PA, 96 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 85 PA, 131 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 60 PA, 117 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 69 PA, 116 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 71 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Jean Segura - 54 PA, 100 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jose Altuve - 78 PA, 137 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 56 PA, 95 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 85 PA, 154 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Ian Happ - 86 PA, 18.6 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 12.5 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Joey Votto - 69 PA, 17.4 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 76 PA, 18.4 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 84 PA, 19.0 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 19.2 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 75 PA, 10.7 K%, 19.6 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Nick Senzel - +6.7% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -6.3 Chase%
Santiago Espinal - +5.7% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Austin Riley - +3.1% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -6.4 Chase%
Ryan Mountcastle - +14.0% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -12.3 Chase%
Kyle Farmer - +6.7% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Yandy Diaz - +9.8% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -10.6 Chase%
Cal Raleigh - +11.6% Contact%, +9.8 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
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