MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, May 11
I followed up my sick $50,000 DraftKings win by annihilating my high school friends to the tune of a $10 profit!
Kings stay Kings!
Shout out to my high school buddies though - what a run we’ve had. There’s like a dozen of these guys I met in 9th and 10th grade back in like 2006 and we still talk every day and play football every Thanksgiving and all kinds of other stuff - and we’ve all stayed super tight even after I abandoned them to move 350 miles away from Pittsburgh just to have some nice grass and a sprinkler system.
I don’t think I’d be here doing all this fantasy baseball stuff without all the fun our league has been for me for half of my life now, so I owe them all a lot of gratitude.
And hey you can meet another one of those high school buddies of mine if you listen to the newest episode of the pod! Here it is:
New premium subscriber sheet aimed at the DFS (DraftKings) players. It’s a DraftKings scoring analysis sheet that looks like this:
Here’s your “data dictionary”, as we call it in the biz!
DKPts: Total DraftKings points scored all year
DK/GP: DK points per game
DK/PA: DK points scored per plate appearances
PA/HR: PA divided by HR (league average is around 35-40)
PA/SB: PA divided by SB
30+ Rate: Percent of games the hitter has scored 30+ DK points in
20+ Rate: Percent of games the hitter has scored 20+ DK points in
10+ Rate: Percent of games the hitter has scored 10+ DK points in
5+ Rate: Percent of games the hitter has scored 5+ DK points in
There’s also a Tableau dashboard with the data if you’re into that sort of thing - check the links in the premium section!
Reid Detmers threw a no-hitter last night, but didn’t even finish in the top 10 JA pitching scores for the day. That means one of two things
He got really lucky
My algorithm is trash
He threw 108 pitches while generating just 10 whiffs and two strikeouts. He walked a batter and gave up two barrels as well. My algorithm gives a lot of points to whiffs and strikeouts and subtracts quite a few for barrels allowed - so that’s the explanation there. The 25% CSW%, 9.3% SwStr%, 8% Brl%, 32% FB%, and 16% LD% aren’t numbers that are going to translate into great starts very often - but good on Detmers, happy for the guy!
Martin Perez actually topped the pitching chart yesterday with his 30% CSW%, 19% SwStr%, 24% K%, 0% BB%, and 0% Brl%. He has some really strong box score results on the year, but the 28.5% CSW% and 19% K% don’t get me too excited for him. He’s had these streaks before where he looks really good - so I wouldn’t be adding Perez right now outside of very deep leagues.
The rookie Kyle Bradish got it going yesterday striking out 11 batters without a single walk. That was after having just five strikeouts and three walks in his first two outings. His arsenal actually looks pretty decent with a nasty slider that has put up a 24% SwStr%. He’s been barreled up quite a bit early on, but I like the fastball velocity and the slider/curveball combination he has to back it up.
On the hitting side, Corey Seager was the top dog as he homered twice. Aaron Judge added two more barrels to bring his season total to a league-leading 21. Mike Trout also added two barrels and stayed behind Judge by the same number, he’s at 19 for the year as those two lead the league. Studs.
Breakout hitters piece coming on RotoBaller tomorrow morning, so keep an eye out for that! Here are the rest of the notes - have a great day!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 15.6 SwStr%, 41.1 CSW%
2. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 12.1 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
3. Mike Clevinger (SD): 14.3 SwStr%, 36.3 CSW%
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 14.6 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
5. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 14.6 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 16.7 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
7. Kyle Wright (ATL): 15.3 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
8. Packy Naughton (STL): 17.5 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
9. Alex Faedo (DET): 20.5 SwStr%, 31.3 CSW%
10. Jharel Cotton (MIN): 13.8 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Martin Perez - 6.33 IP - 84.5 JA Points
2. Kyle Bradish - 7.0 IP - 82.5 JA Points
3. Robbie Ray - 5.67 IP - 64.75 JA Points
4. Freddy Peralta - 5.33 IP - 63.25 JA Points
5. Lucas Giolito - 7.0 IP - 55.75 JA Points
6. Alex Faedo - 5.0 IP - 52.75 JA Points
7. Mike Clevinger - 4.33 IP - 49.5 JA Points
8. Adrian Martinez - 5.33 IP - 48.0 JA Points
9. Aaron Nola - 5.33 IP - 47.25 JA Points
10. Luis Severino - 4.67 IP - 43.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 59.62 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 6.0 GS - 56.28 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 6.0 GS - 55.36 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 53.42 JA Points
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 6.0 GS - 53.18 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 6.0 GS - 53.12 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 5.0 GS - 51.44 JA Points
8. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) - 4.0 GS - 50.32 JA Points
9. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 6.0 GS - 47.87 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 6.0 GS - 47.79 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 4.7mph to 88.5
Jharel Cotton's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 80.9
Jharel Cotton's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 80.9
Jharel Cotton's FF velo (21 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 93.6
Garrett Whitlock's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.8
Joe Ryan's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.0
Mike Clevinger's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 90.1
Bryse Wilson's FF velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's SI usage (30.3%) up 11.6 points
Bryse Wilson's FF usage (40.0%) up 12.1 points
Cal Quantrill's FF usage (22.4%) up 12.9 points
Carlos Carrasco's FF usage (56.6%) up 16.1 points
Cody Poteet's FF usage (40.0%) up 12.2 points
Freddy Peralta's SL usage (34.4%) up 16.4 points
Hunter Greene's SL usage (48.0%) up 15.5 points
Jesus Luzardo's CH usage (38.5%) up 27.1 points
Jharel Cotton's SL usage (19.0%) up 10.1 points
Mike Clevinger's FF usage (39.6%) up 11.6 points
Mike Clevinger's SL usage (33.0%) up 15.8 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (48.8%) up 14.6 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (22.2%) up 17.1 points
Robbie Ray's SL usage (53.8%) up 16.0 points
Yusei Kikuchi's SL usage (31.5%) up 12.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 69 TBF, 41.0% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 87 TBF, 37.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 89 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 79 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 82 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 43.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 TBF, 39.1% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 85 TBF, 38.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 37.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 90 TBF, 35.6% K%
Max Scherzer - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Lucas Giolito - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 37.0% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 TBF, 36.2% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 74 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 85 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Lucas Giolito - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 72.7% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 72 TBF, 68.5% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 95 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 79 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Dallas Keuchel - 85 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Ian Anderson - 70 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Nick Martinez - 67 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 3.1 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 37.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 32.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 87 TBF, 32.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 31.4 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Chad Wallach (LAA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Justin Turner (LAD) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Rafael Devers (BOS) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corey Seager - 4.0 PA - 82.0 JA Points
2. Mike Trout - 5.0 PA - 77.0 JA Points
3. Chad Wallach - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
4. Yonathan Daza - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
5. Nick Castellanos - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Justin Turner - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Rafael Devers - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Michael Brantley - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Giancarlo Stanton - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. J.D. Davis - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Mike Trout (LAA) - 115.0 PA - 156.87 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 132.0 PA - 143.94 JA Points
3. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 96.0 PA - 135.42 JA Points
4. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 102.0 PA - 134.9 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 123.0 PA - 129.43 JA Points
6. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 119.0 PA - 122.69 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 137.0 PA - 113.87 JA Points
8. Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 109.0 PA - 111.93 JA Points
9. Max Muncy (LAD) - 108.0 PA - 107.41 JA Points
10. Carlos Santana (KC) - 76.0 PA - 106.32 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 118.3mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 115.2mph - single
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 113.8mph - field_out
Joey Gallo (NYY) - 113.4mph - foul
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 113.1mph - foul
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.5mph - home_run
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 112.2mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.3mph - home_run
Alex Verdugo (BOS) - 111.0mph - field_out
Eric Hosmer (SD) - 111.0mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Mike Trout - 78 PA, 44 BIP, 15 Brls, 34.1 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 46 BIP, 14 Brls, 30.4 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 46 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 73 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 71 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 46 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 70 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 72 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Willy Adames - 84 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 64 PA, 96 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 68 PA, 121 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 73 PA, 125 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 47 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 58 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Ty France - 90 PA, 184 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 116 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 82 PA, 145 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 111 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 77 PA, 104 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Yelich - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 72 PA, 12.5 K%, 20.8 Brl%
George Springer - 76 PA, 18.4 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Luis Robert - 53 PA, 17.0 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Max Kepler - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel, DraftKings, and MGM Sportsbook betting lines
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me