MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, May 18
What a day it was yesterday! We saw more homers hit than any other day this season.
This was buoyed by the fact that there was also a new high in plate appearances given the three double-headers, but a great day for offense nonetheless!
My home league fantasy team got eight of those dingers and racked up 16 runs and 22 RBI sending my opponent Paul (who you can hear on the podcast below!) into a tizzy. So once again, shoutout to me!
The league triple-slash line is up to .235/.307/.377 now and the home run rate is increasing as well ( we’re at 38 PA/HR now, still well above the mark of 31 from a season ago).
A new episode of the podcast is out, although I do admit there’s not a ton of fantasy baseball stuff in this one. We had #FriendOfTheShow Adam Levitan back on to BS about DFS and NFL Draft stuff and whatnot. Love talking to that guy!
Next week I’ll be in Pittsburgh for work, so the podcast is up in the air. We may be attempting something like a LIVE PODCAST as we tailgate the Pirates/Rockies game next Monday. That will certainly be a blast for Producer Lee and I, and who knows maybe you’ll even like it too!
I think it’s worth taking a look at two pitcher standouts from yesterday, Brady Singer & JT Brubaker.
We can be brief with Brubaker. He actually gave up six runs (four earned) and isn’t having a good season by the numbers (5.50 ERA), but he struck out 10 last night. That brought his K% up to 26.5%, which still isn’t something all that spectacular given the 11.7% BB% and low 41% GB%. So don’t worry about him, I guess.
As for Singer, he hasn’t seen much action this year making just four appearances. Last night was his first real outing since April 10th as he threw 93 pitches and man he looked good. Nine strikeouts, 18 whiffs, nine ground-balls, and no homers.
The arsenal doesn’t really look conducive to strikeouts. He relies heavily on a sinker with a 3.2% SwStr%, but he does have a really good slider. Last night, he elevated the slider usage (39 sliders, 38 sinkers), and that really worked. So it would be something to monitor to see if he continues to do that, but throwing that many sliders while trying to pitch multiple innings isn’t an easy thing to do.
I’m probably leaving Singer alone for now, but it was a pretty eye-popping start nonetheless.
On the hitting side, three more barrels for Aaron Judge! He has 27 barrels on the year now with 14 homers, leading the league in both of those. He has a 29% barrel rate with a respectable 26.5% K%, it’s just silliness right now.
Alright, here we go with the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brady Singer (KC): 19.4 SwStr%, 43.0 CSW%
2. Caleb Smith (ARI): 14.0 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
3. JT Brubaker (PIT): 20.7 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
4. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 13.8 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%
5. Trevor Williams (NYM): 20.0 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
6. Jose Berrios (TOR): 4.4 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15.8 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
8. Shane McClanahan (TB): 20.0 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
9. Dylan Cease (CWS): 20.2 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
10. Zach Eflin (PHI): 6.0 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Brady Singer - 7.0 IP - 93.75 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan - 7.0 IP - 72.25 JA Points
3. JT Brubaker - 5.67 IP - 64.25 JA Points
4. Logan Gilbert - 6.67 IP - 59.25 JA Points
5. Zach Eflin - 6.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease - 5.33 IP - 55.75 JA Points
7. Michael King - 3.0 IP - 54.75 JA Points
8. Trevor Williams - 4.0 IP - 54.5 JA Points
9. Davis Martin - 5.0 IP - 49.5 JA Points
10. Steven Matz - 5.0 IP - 47.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 56.99 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 8.0 GS - 56.08 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 6.0 GS - 55.98 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 7.0 GS - 53.83 JA Points
5. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 7.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 7.0 GS - 51.79 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 5.0 GS - 51.44 JA Points
8. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 7.0 GS - 50.98 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 6.0 GS - 48.41 JA Points
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 7.0 GS - 46.47 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryan Pepiot's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 86.0
Dylan Cease's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 87.6
Tyler Gilbert's FC velo (27 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 88.0
Keegan Thompson's FC velo (20 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 91.4
Joan Adon's FF velo (62 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 96.2
Dylan Cease's KC velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 80.9
Zach Plesac's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.2
Shane McClanahan's CH velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.3
Zach Eflin's FC velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.2
Spenser Watkins's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 77.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Cobb's SI usage (53.8%) up 10.8 points
Alex Cobb's KC usage (27.5%) up 16.1 points
Beau Brieske's FF usage (65.4%) up 14.1 points
Brady Singer's CH usage (17.2%) up 16.2 points
Cody Poteet's CH usage (48.1%) up 12.3 points
JT Brubaker's SL usage (43.5%) up 11.6 points
Jon Heasley's FF usage (52.9%) up 14.1 points
Jon Heasley's CU usage (22.1%) up 10.9 points
Jose Urquidy's FC usage (24.2%) up 10.7 points
Logan Gilbert's SL usage (35.6%) up 12.6 points
Merrill Kelly's FF usage (41.1%) up 12.8 points
Mike Clevinger's SL usage (37.3%) up 12.3 points
Mike Clevinger's FF usage (36.0%) up 14.8 points
Reid Detmers's FF usage (60.7%) up 12.3 points
Trevor Williams's FF usage (56.2%) up 12.4 points
Tyler Gilbert's SI usage (40.2%) up 21.5 points
Zach Eflin's SI usage (51.2%) up 13.2 points
Zach Eflin's FC usage (23.8%) up 13.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 85 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 70 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 113 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 76 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 98 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 113 TBF, 42.5% K%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Eric Lauer - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Sean Manaea - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Lucas Giolito - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 30.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 113 TBF, 34.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Eric Lauer - 71 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Lucas Giolito - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Corey Kluber - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 67.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 74 TBF, 65.3% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 72 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Dane Dunning - 76 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 93 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 79 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Alex Wood - 89 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Joan Adon - 80 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Adrian Houser - 94 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 2.7 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 32.1 K%, 5.1 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 80 TBF, 28.8 K%, 2.5 BB%, 52.7% GB%
Luis Garcia - 109 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, 50.7% GB%
Michael King - 53 TBF, 35.8 K%, 3.8 BB%, 53.1% GB%
Nick Martinez - 63 TBF, 27.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, 51.2% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 98 TBF, 29.6 K%, 5.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 30.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 27.1 K%, 3.1 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Christian Walker (ARI) 8 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
J.D. Martinez (BOS) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Tucker (HOU) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Aaron Judge - 5.0 PA - 80.0 JA Points
2. Kole Calhoun - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
3. Mike Trout - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
4. Darin Ruf - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
5. Tommy La Stella - 6.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
6. Mookie Betts - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
7. Anthony Rendon - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
9. Rafael Devers - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
10. J.D. Martinez - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 122.0 PA - 150.16 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 147.0 PA - 149.39 JA Points
3. Mike Trout (LAA) - 139.0 PA - 140.72 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 158.0 PA - 131.9 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 134.0 PA - 131.64 JA Points
6. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 150.0 PA - 119.73 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 167.0 PA - 117.13 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 152.0 PA - 109.21 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 127.0 PA - 101.1 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 101.0 PA - 100.59 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 117.9mph - foul
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 113.8mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.6mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.2mph - home_run
Nate Lowe (TEX) - 111.7mph - single
Royce Lewis (MIN) - 111.7mph - double
Luis Robert (CWS) - 111.7mph - single
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 111.3mph - home_run
Eric Hosmer (SD) - 110.9mph - field_out
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.8mph - fielders_choice
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 47 BIP, 16 Brls, 34.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 80 PA, 46 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 79 PA, 54 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 51 PA, 24 BIP, 6 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 48 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 79 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 55 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 81 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 67 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 72 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 62 PA, 87 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 74 PA, 123 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 58 PA, 103 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Wander Franco - 79 PA, 162 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Ty France - 88 PA, 175 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 85 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 69 PA, 129 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 77 PA, 152 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 125 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
A.J. Pollock - 64 PA, 17.2 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Brendan Rodgers - 55 PA, 16.4 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 68 PA, 19.1 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 19.6 Brl%
Corey Seager - 75 PA, 17.3 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Ha-Seong Kim - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Jeimer Candelario - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 70 PA, 18.6 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 16.5 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 83 PA, 15.7 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel, DraftKings, and MGM Sportsbook betting lines
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
If you’re seeing this, you’ve become a paid sub! Thanks so much for that! If you still don’t have access to any of the below links, please DM me on Twitter or email me and I’ll get you added ASAP.