MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, October 5
I am writing this while I sit through a financials update meeting at my company. It’s all very bad news because we didn’t GROW in the last year and we missed our PROJECTIONS.
Now, I’m a numbers guy - I like it more than the next guy, but you have to see through so much of this stuff. The expectation is that the economy and big corporations in the world will grow ad infinitum. Like I suppose that has been true for decades now with constant growth outside of those outlier events like 2008 and 2020, but at some point, you run out of people to sell stuff to, right? World population is still growing every year, but the growth has majorly slowed down:
This is certainly an over-simplistic model, but economic growth does have a lot to do with population, right?
So anyways, my company is also worried that they didn’t mean their projections for the year. That puts some pressure on the projectors to just project lower than they actually think, cause then they’ll be able to say they beat their projections! Set that bar low and profit! And this is an actual profit too because so much of the economy is based on trust and perception. If my company at the end of the year comes out and says they crushed their sales projections, that’s a positive signifier to stock holders. That will by itself make the stock price go up. But that fact alone tells you nothing. If I project I’ll eat 6,000 calories today but then only eat 5,000 and then brag about eating 1,000 calories less than I expected - I still freaking ate 5,000 calories.
I understand that I benefit massively from this whole economic and financial scam we have running, my 401K and IRA’s have been growing every year and chances are I’ll be able to retire pretty comfortably someday, but it’s real eye-opening when you just see things for how they are.
Also, the government response to COVID was a complete disaster and we will feel those negative affects for the rest of our lives, probably. Poor kids too. I think about COVID all the time, like all the time. What a wild time that was.
This is the penultimate daily notes post for MLB regular season, at least. We just have one day of games left, and hey - none of them mean anything! Well done MLB! The playoff should be fun, I will have some content - might even lay out “one bet per game” in the mornings based on the projections and some other thoughts I have, see if we can’t make a little scratch that way.
Here’s the report, we will wrap this whole shabang up tomorrow!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 17.5 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
2. Alex Cobb (SF): 21.9 SwStr%, 38.4 CSW%
3. Sean Manaea (SD): 16.7 SwStr%, 37.9 CSW%
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 18.2 SwStr%, 36.4 CSW%
5. Andrew Heaney (LAD): 17.7 SwStr%, 35.5 CSW%
6. Eric Lauer (MIL): 12.4 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
7. Kolby Allard (TEX): 16.7 SwStr%, 35.0 CSW%
8. Julio Urias (LAD): 13.3 SwStr%, 34.9 CSW%
9. Michael Lorenzen (LAA): 16.8 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
10. Taijuan Walker (NYM): 17.3 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Taijuan Walker - 4.33 IP - 77.5 JA Points
2. Justin Verlander - 5.0 IP - 75.75 JA Points
3. Gerrit Cole - 5.67 IP - 73.0 JA Points
4. Alex Cobb - 5.0 IP - 70.75 JA Points
5. Eric Lauer - 6.0 IP - 57.25 JA Points
6. Michael Lorenzen - 6.0 IP - 54.25 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito - 7.0 IP - 53.25 JA Points
8. Jake Odorizzi - 5.0 IP - 52.0 JA Points
9. Javier Assad - 5.33 IP - 50.5 JA Points
10. Sean Manaea - 6.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 20.0 GS - 57.89 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 31.0 GS - 50.99 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 31.0 GS - 50.54 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 27.0 GS - 49.87 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 32.0 GS - 48.38 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 28.0 GS - 47.89 JA Points
7. Blake Snell (SD) - 24.0 GS - 47.48 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 23.0 GS - 47.02 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 24.0 GS - 45.89 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Zac Gallen's CU velo (28 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.5
Justus Sheffield's CH velo (27 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.5
Kolby Allard's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.2
Ryan Feltner's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.9
Dakota Hudson's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.1
Eric Lauer's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.3
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.3
Bryse Wilson's SI velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.5
Cory Abbott's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.9
Elvin Rodriguez's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 77.3
Lucas Giolito's CH velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.3
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 76.0
Sean Manaea's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -4.6mph to 77.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Braxton Garrett's SI usage (37.4%) up 15.7 points
Bryse Wilson's CH usage (28.0%) up 13.6 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (36.8%) up 16.6 points
Cory Abbott's FF usage (62.5%) up 11.5 points
Dakota Hudson's FF usage (40.3%) up 21.3 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's SI usage (33.7%) up 15.8 points
Eric Lauer's FF usage (56.7%) up 13.4 points
Jake Odorizzi's FS usage (29.2%) up 12.5 points
Javier Assad's SL usage (18.4%) up 10.3 points
Justus Sheffield's CH usage (33.8%) up 26.3 points
Luis Cessa's FF usage (32.8%) up 13.3 points
Ranger Suarez's FC usage (22.4%) up 13.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 90 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 89 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 37.7% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 36.9% K%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Michael Lorenzen - 85 TBF, 32.9% K%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Nestor Cortes - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 32.3% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 70.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 80 TBF, 70.0% GB%
Lance McCullers Jr. - 75 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 104 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 105 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 102 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Drey Jameson - 98 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Luis Castillo - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.2 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 31.3 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 63.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +8.1% CSW%, -7.1 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +4.6% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Sandy Alcantara - +5.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jordan Lyles - +3.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +4.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +3.7% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) 2 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Urias (MIL) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 9 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Luis Urias - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez - 5.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
3. Francisco Alvarez - 2.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
4. Brandon Nimmo - 3.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. Mitch Haniger - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
6. Bryan Reynolds - 6.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
7. Brandon Nimmo - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
8. Oswaldo Cabrera - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Elvis Andrus - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. Ke'Bryan Hayes - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 673.0 PA - 149.06 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 545.0 PA - 146.2 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 651.0 PA - 129.28 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 684.0 PA - 116.49 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 533.0 PA - 103.04 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 650.0 PA - 100.98 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 555.0 PA - 100.68 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 647.0 PA - 100.03 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 593.0 PA - 88.09 JA Points
10. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 615.0 PA - 85.66 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 113.2mph - double
Mike Trout (LAA) - 113.1mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.4mph - field_out
Matt Olson (ATL) - 112.3mph - single
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.5mph - single
Jeimer Candelario (DET) - 111.3mph - single
Adam Engel (CWS) - 111.2mph - double
Luke Voit (WSH) - 111.2mph - foul
Spencer Torkelson (DET) - 110.6mph - home_run
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) - 110.6mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 40 BIP, 13 Brls, 32.5 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 65 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 51 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 62 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Jarred Kelenic - 55 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Seth Brown - 76 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 74 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 47 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 0.49 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
Taylor Ward - 77 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Bryan De La Cruz - 74 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
George Springer - 79 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - 62 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Trayce Thompson - 50 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
J.D. Davis - 54 PA, 0.409 xwOBA
Jose Altuve - 66 PA, 0.406 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 62 PA, 105 Swings, 98.1 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 53 PA, 88 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 91 PA, 160 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 59 PA, 89 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 51 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 67 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 62 PA, 124 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 73 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Jose Altuve - 66 PA, 108 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Brandon Nimmo - 73 PA, 133 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 17.1 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 60 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 76 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 77 PA, 16.9 K%, 18.3 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 22.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 17.2 K%, 27.7 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Kyle Schwarber - +15.1% Contact%, +8.5 mph exit velo, -6.9 Chase%
Jeff McNeil - +5.5% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -6.5 Chase%
Seiya Suzuki - +17.4% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Rafael Devers - +4.8% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Gilberto Celestino - +8.1% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -8.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Pete Alonso - 0.394 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 78.4% Contact%, 23.9% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Taylor Ward - 0.475 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 19.1% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Triston Casas - 0.378 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 20.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Bubba Thompson - 34.8% Whiff%, 84.6% Weak%, 0.945 Cold Rating
Jose Siri - 34.2% Whiff%, 86.4% Weak%, 0.94 Cold Rating
Nick Gordon - 32.4% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Corbin Carroll - 31.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.895 Cold Rating
David Villar - 39.2% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating
Matt Wallner - 39.0% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating
JJ Bleday - 28.9% Whiff%, 90.0% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Dermis Garcia - 39.1% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Christian Yelich - 29.1% Whiff%, 80.6% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Matt Chapman - 30.3% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Minor League Stat Dashboards
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.