MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, September 21
Playoff update
Nick Lodolo and Taylor Rogers didn’t help the ole pitching ratios last night, but with only a handful of innings logged so far the ERA/WHIP aren’t much of a problem. Stupid Ass Clint has very little going on for him in pitching so far, so I’m feeling pretty good about winning those three pitching ratio categories.
It’s not great that Stupid Ass Clint is hitting .378 with a .432 OBP, but that is kind of all his offense can do - get base knocks and steal bases. I’m pretty confident in R/HR/RBI, and I’m firing up Bubba Thompson tonight to completely close that steals gap. I’m the #2 seed so all I need is six categories to move on, and I feel pretty solid about
Runs
Homers
RBI
ERA
WHIP
K/9
And I’m probably the slight favorite on QS/W as well with Verlander, Fried, Nola, Ohtani, May, Springs, Jon Gray, Gallen, and Cobb still to make starts (and hopefully a Sunday start from Lodolo as well).
Another big day today as I sweat all of this out, and my four Dodgers get to face Bumgarner - so that’s exciting.
What I’ve learned this week is that I don’t like doing anything at all for fantasy football. The projections are fun to have and whatnot, but the dashboard has been a pain and the analysis just isn’t that interesting to me. I will finish what I started, but overall it’s just so clear that fantasy football is inferior to baseball. The Twitter bro’s too for fantasy football, my God. You see stuff all the time like “Raheem Mostert is a great buy this week!” and then the next week it’s “Chase Edmonds is a great buy this week!” (those two are teammates). Everybody just completely changes their entire world view with every game that passes. Slaves to the small sample size.
But in fairness, there is no such thing as a good sample size in football. There are all of 17 games in a season, the teams change pretty drastically every year, and most players have really short careers to boot. It’s just not a game that is conducive to data analysis, aka it’s a game of luck and not that cool.
But I won’t deny that it’s really freaking fun to play fantasy football and watch your players.
There is a little bit of this “I have kids now and can’t justify watching a ton of football on weekends, so let me try to convince myself that I don’t really like football” going on here - no doubt about it.
That’s typically how I go about my life, whatever I can’t have I just convince myself I don’t want. I don’t think many people can actually pull that off - but I seem to be able to. I learned it from the great Epictetus:
What an absolutely phenomenal way to view it. Our natural desire, which only the strongest people can even get close to overcoming, is to get everything we want. So there are two ways to actually fulfill that:
Actually get everything you want
Don’t want that much stuff
Both are pretty tough, but no doubt that the second one is way more feasible. The best life is a simple life, and the less you desire the happier you will be. I think that’s true. Shoutout Epictetus.
A glimmer of hope for the Pirates in this two-game set in New York. Luis Ortiz pitched well again with a 13.5% SwStr% and a 32.4% CSW%. Here’s his pitch mix data for the season (two starts)
That’s a hot fastball without great marks (yet?”), but the slider has been awesome. He is not the only Luis Ortiz in the big leagues, so he will forever have the ID number appended on his name, which kind of makes me hate him - but I’ll do my best to be moral here, recognizing that Luis Ortiz Dash Six Eight Two Eight Four Seven is also a child of God and he didn’t have anything to say about what he was named.
The other ray of light is Roansy Contreras, who will pitch tonight. He’s looked pretty good in this most recent stretch in the bigs
He also has strong velocity with a sick slider. He’s mixed in the curveball, which is good to see for the future since it’s tough to make due with just a fastball and slider. The results aren’t anything astounding, his K% is under 21% and the BB% is near 10% in the Majors, but the upside is there with his stuff.
The Pirates haven’t been a completely useless offense over the last few years, I mean they are bottom-third of the league for sure but it’s nothing that you could never see being good - the problems have all been the starting pitching. Maybe some of these young guys will work out in the next few years and we can have some more interesting summer baseball games being played in my home town.
Is this Cole Ragans guy not the gas can we thought he was? He had a sick 14.3% SwStr% and a 26.3% K% last night against the Angels and he didn’t walk anybody. His 16.5%-10.5% K-BB% for the year is awful, but it’s 25.5%-7.8% over his last three starts. I’m not really saying anything there other than maybe don’t go full stack against him in DFS over his last couple of starts this season.
I’m pretty pumped for the offseason baseball writing here, that is a lot of fun for me going team-by-team reviewing and previewing for the next season - and I’m taking that to the next level this fall and winter. If you’re a paid subscriber here, you’ll get all of that - and I guarantee it will be hugely helpful for your 2023 success. I might have to block Stupid Ass Clint from seeing any of it though, especially if he beats me this week.
I haven’t paid enough attention to the Magic Formula Hitting Qualifiers this year. This is really a useful thing I run every day, I think, as it has helped me identify a ton of under-the-radar hitters over the last few years. We should really focus on that moving forward into future years, here’s what it looks like today:
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Escobar - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 57 PA, 17.5 K%, 23.8 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 76 PA, 14.5 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Garrett Cooper - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 14.9 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 25.6 Brl%
Justin Turner - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 28.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 61 PA, 11.5 K%, 29.8 Brl%
I imagine Escobar, Cooper, and Justin Turner are available in some leagues and may be worth an add if you’re still playing competitive fantasy baseball here.
Let’s get on to the report - thanks for reading all of this, felt good to write some extra words here again!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 20.7 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
2. Luis Ortiz (PIT): 13.5 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
3. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 19.1 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
4. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 12.0 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
5. JP Sears (OAK): 10.5 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
6. Cole Ragans (TEX): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
7. Mike Clevinger (SD): 13.0 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
8. Cristian Javier (HOU): 18.9 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
9. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 17.2 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
10. Dylan Bundy (MIN): 9.2 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton - 5.33 IP - 63.25 JA Points
2. Pablo Lopez - 6.67 IP - 56.0 JA Points
3. Tyler Anderson - 6.0 IP - 55.0 JA Points
4. Drey Jameson - 6.0 IP - 54.5 JA Points
5. Patrick Sandoval - 5.0 IP - 47.0 JA Points
6. Cristian Javier - 5.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
7. Ryan Pepiot - 3.0 IP - 42.5 JA Points
8. Cole Ragans - 4.33 IP - 39.5 JA Points
9. Mike Clevinger - 5.67 IP - 39.25 JA Points
10. Joey Wentz - 5.67 IP - 37.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 20.0 GS - 57.89 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 29.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 26.0 GS - 50.62 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 29.0 GS - 50.07 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 25.0 GS - 50.04 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 29.0 GS - 48.52 JA Points
7. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 30.0 GS - 47.37 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 21.0 GS - 47.14 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 24.0 GS - 45.29 JA Points
10. Blake Snell (SD) - 21.0 GS - 45.12 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Shane McClanahan's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 84.2
Kyle Gibson's SI velo (23 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 93.6
Aaron Civale's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 77.4
Cristian Javier's SL velo (32 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.3
Patrick Sandoval's FF velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.6
Kyle Gibson's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.7
Kyle Gibson's FF velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.4
Ross Stripling's CH velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 84.0
Adrian Sampson's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.7
Austin Voth's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.1
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Sampson's SI usage (42.7%) up 11.1 points
Brayan Bello's SL usage (32.1%) up 12.7 points
Carlos Carrasco's FF usage (47.8%) up 13.4 points
Drey Jameson's SL usage (35.1%) up 18.4 points
Michael Grove's CU usage (45.7%) up 22.3 points
Mike Clevinger's SI usage (28.3%) up 15.9 points
Nestor Cortes's SL usage (29.9%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (39.3%) up 10.5 points
Ross Stripling's CH usage (37.7%) up 10.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 92 TBF, 39.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 106 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 100 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Logan Webb - 73 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 106 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 44.9% K%
Jacob deGrom - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 39.6% K%
Logan Gilbert - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Cristian Javier - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Lance McCullers Jr. - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 92 TBF, 41.3% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 37.8% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 90 TBF, 32.2% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 107 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Wright - 95 TBF, 68.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 73 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Brady Singer - 74 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 73 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 68 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Jose Quintana - 88 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 89 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 106 TBF, 52.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Woodruff - 106 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 80 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 54.3% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 32.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.9 BB%, 63.6% GB%
George Kirby - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 1.9 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Luis Castillo - 99 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 39.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Paolo Espino - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 1.9 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Shane Bieber - 107 TBF, 29.0 K%, 2.8 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Trevor Rogers - 77 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Chad Kuhl - +3.0% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Framber Valdez - +3.6% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Dylan Bundy - +2.1% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Logan Webb - +3.0% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Jose Suarez - +3.3% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Blake Snell - +2.5% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Paolo Espino - +6.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +6.9% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Multiple Barrels
C.J. Cron (COL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Dansby Swanson (ATL) 4 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.D. Martinez (BOS) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ketel Marte (ARI) 8 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kolten Wong (MIL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. J.T. Realmuto - 5.0 PA - 68.0 JA Points
2. Jeremy Pena - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
3. Dansby Swanson - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. C.J. Cron - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
5. Justin Turner - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Teoscar Hernandez - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
7. Kyle Schwarber - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
8. A.J. Pollock - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
9. Willy Adames - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Andrew McCutchen - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 615.0 PA - 149.14 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 502.0 PA - 148.53 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 599.0 PA - 133.62 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 638.0 PA - 121.76 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 609.0 PA - 109.16 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 488.0 PA - 104.18 JA Points
7. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 602.0 PA - 101.93 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 546.0 PA - 101.39 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 556.0 PA - 89.06 JA Points
10. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 409.0 PA - 87.92 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 118.0mph - home_run
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 112.4mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.6mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 111.3mph - field_out
Carlos Santana (SEA) - 110.6mph - field_out
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 110.3mph - double
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 110.3mph - double
Josh Bell (SD) - 110.1mph - single
Tommy Pham (BOS) - 109.8mph - single
Kolten Wong (MIL) - 109.7mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 15 Brls, 34.9 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 61 PA, 47 BIP, 14 Brls, 29.8 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 73 PA, 50 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 78 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 57 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Seth Brown - 68 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 53 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 54 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Dermis Garcia - 52 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 61 PA, 0.558 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 74 PA, 0.537 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 76 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 67 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Eduardo Escobar - 77 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 91 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 73 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 78 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Carlos Santana - 59 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 62 PA, 88 Swings, 94.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 77 PA, 156 Swings, 93.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 66 PA, 98 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 69 PA, 124 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 97 PA, 163 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 76 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Santiago Espinal - 49 PA, 84 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Nolan Arenado - 74 PA, 147 Swings, 86.4 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 87 PA, 165 Swings, 86.1 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 70 PA, 99 Swings, 85.9 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Escobar - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 57 PA, 17.5 K%, 23.8 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 76 PA, 14.5 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Garrett Cooper - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 14.9 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 25.6 Brl%
Justin Turner - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 28.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 61 PA, 11.5 K%, 29.8 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
A.J. Pollock - +10.3% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -3.2 Chase%
Rodolfo Castro - +3.8% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -3.8 Chase%
J.P. Crawford - +6.8% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +6.6% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -14.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Freddie Freeman - 0.499 xwOBA, 21.1% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 13.5% K%
Gleyber Torres - 0.397 xwOBA, 15.0% Brl%, 78.3% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 20.7% K%
Taylor Ward - 0.396 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 83.0% Contact%, 17.6% Chase%, 21.2% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Joey Gallo - 40.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.967 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 35.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.934 Cold Rating
Ramon Urias - 29.9% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 42.3% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.89 Cold Rating
Josh Donaldson - 29.7% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating
Hunter Renfroe - 27.6% Whiff%, 78.8% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Wilmer Flores - 27.3% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.838 Cold Rating
Matt Olson - 32.0% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Luis Garcia - 26.6% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.819 Cold Rating
Bryce Harper - 33.6% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.817 Cold Rating
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