MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, September 14
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Tableau was back up and humming along yesterday evening, but now it’s jacked up again. I can’t do much of anything without it, so hopefully that gets completely sorted out soon.
My two kids are in swimming lessons, which is wild because they’re just three and one. Before a couple of years ago, I would’ve thought that was insane that a one-year-old would have swim lessons, but now I get it. It’s essentially just teaching them to survive in a pool if they ever fell into one. The instructors don’t mess around either, they’ll go dunking them in and basically just throwing them in the pool. I haven’t gone yet, but I’m going this morning - I’m expecting it to be tough to watch. But it’s a good lesson I think, you have to put kids in tough situations intentionally if you want them to ever really learn anything. It would seem to me that we’ve gone way too far with coddling our kids and not letting them ever get into difficult situations, and we don’t put enough strict limits on them either.
I read “The Coddling of the American Mind” by Jonathan Haidt a few years ago before I had kids, and it talks a lot about that - good reading for any parents out there, I highly recommend it - along with anything else that Haidt writes, that guy is the man.
Hunter Brown did it again, this time against the Tigers. Without the dashboard being able to be refreshed, we have to once again to the ugly Excel screenshots:
None of those swinging-strike rates are good, but he threw a lot of strikes - and that’s what you want to do against a bad lineup like Detroit. It’s also a ton of four-seamers (66%). Really not a convincing pitch arsenal, I’m hands-off of Brown for now.
Jeffrey Springs had a great start yesterday, throwing six scoreless against the Blue Jays. I’m not sure I’ll feel confident starting him moving forward given that they clearly want to cut back on his innings, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a three-inning guy moving forward and the six innings yesterday were just because they had two games to cover. If there’s a good streamer available, I think you can drop Springs for them in the playoff weeks here, but I suppose it’s a little bit of a risk in case Springs does go out with full pitch counts here in the last few weeks.
Skin Garia put up two barrels and a dinger for the Athletics last night. He now has a 15% Brl% but a 42% K% - CLASSIC. I really only typed this to make that dermis joke again.
Joe Ryan was elite once again with seven scoreless and nine punchies against the Royals. He has a 29.1% K% and an 8.8% BB% since August 1st (eight starts). That walk rate is higher than ever, we saw him with rates between 5-7% coming up to the Majors and in the Majors last year. He’ll be a very interesting pitcher to rank next year, but certainly there’s a lot of talent.
Here are the second-half K-BB% leaders (5+ GS)
deGrom 39.2%
Strider 32.4%
Rodon 29.8%
Gausman 28.0%
Heaney 27.8%
Lynn 27.6%
Gallen 26.8%
Snell 26.8%
Cole 26.2%
Nola 26.1%
Ryan Mountcastle is good again:
His 25.9% Brl% over the last three weeks is second only to Aaron Judge (naturally), but the 25% K% has kept his slash line down to .247/.309/.479. That’s a shockingly low SLG given the inputs, but you may not have even noticed how well he’s hitting the ball lately because it hasn’t shown up a ton in the box scores. He gets to face Patrick Corbin tonight, so if you believe in “hot”, you should be putting some scratch on a Mountcastle dinger tonight.
The dashboards are working again now, just playing games with me now, hopefully they hold it together today so I can polish off that NFL Dashboard. The link for that is in the premium section of the notes below, so check that out. It will be enhanced quite a bit over the next few weeks as I get all my bearings figured out, but right now it’s in pretty decent shape. If you see anything wrong, please bring it to my attention - I’m sure there are still some player names that aren’t mapping correctly between my different data sources.
Here is the rest of the MLB report:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jacob deGrom (NYM): 25.0 SwStr%, 41.7 CSW%
2. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 21.4 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 24.4 SwStr%, 37.2 CSW%
4. Hunter Brown (HOU): 7.3 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
5. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 16.2 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
6. Jose Suarez (LAA): 7.7 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
7. Bailey Falter (PHI): 10.2 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
8. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 14.6 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
9. Taylor Hearn (TEX): 13.0 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
10. Cole Ragans (TEX): 17.1 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jacob deGrom - 6.67 IP - 104.25 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole - 6.0 IP - 70.75 JA Points
3. Jeffrey Springs - 6.0 IP - 54.25 JA Points
4. Clayton Kershaw - 7.0 IP - 53.25 JA Points
5. Joe Ryan - 7.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
6. Alek Manoah - 6.67 IP - 47.5 JA Points
7. Johan Oviedo - 5.0 IP - 42.0 JA Points
8. Bailey Falter - 6.0 IP - 38.25 JA Points
9. Yu Darvish - 8.0 IP - 36.25 JA Points
10. Jose Suarez - 5.33 IP - 35.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 19.0 GS - 57.58 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 53.29 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 24.0 GS - 49.94 JA Points
5. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 28.0 GS - 49.37 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 28.0 GS - 48.84 JA Points
7. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 28.0 GS - 48.5 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 20.0 GS - 46.76 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 20.0 GS - 45.6 JA Points
10. Lance Lynn (CWS) - 16.0 GS - 45.29 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's CU velo (22 pitches) UP 3.7mph to 77.8
Joe Ryan's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 87.4
Luis Ortiz's FF velo (64 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 98.2
Dean Kremer's FC velo (21 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 89.8
Jeffrey Springs's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.2
Taylor Hearn's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 86.6
Cole Ragans's FC velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 89.8
Chad Kuhl's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 81.1
Jose Suarez's SI velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.0
Michael Kopech's FF velo (54 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.4
Adrian Sampson's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.6
Logan Gilbert's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 85.2
Alek Manoah's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's CU usage (36.4%) up 19.4 points
Cole Ragans's CH usage (45.7%) up 12.6 points
Cory Abbott's CU usage (33.3%) up 12.1 points
Drew Hutchison's SI usage (23.6%) up 13.5 points
Gerrit Cole's SL usage (33.7%) up 11.7 points
Hunter Brown's FF usage (65.9%) up 14.0 points
Jeffrey Springs's CH usage (43.6%) up 10.3 points
Joe Ryan's CU usage (20.8%) up 14.8 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (41.5%) up 25.8 points
Jose Suarez's SL usage (29.7%) up 12.3 points
Kris Bubic's CU usage (36.1%) up 15.6 points
Logan Gilbert's SI usage (11.2%) up 10.4 points
Luis Ortiz's FF usage (58.2%) up 16.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 95 TBF, 39.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 79 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 91 TBF, 37.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 106 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 90 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 99 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 99 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 41.0% K%
Jacob deGrom - 95 TBF, 37.9% K%
Gerrit Cole - 106 TBF, 36.8% K%
Andrew Heaney - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Zac Gallen - 91 TBF, 34.1% K%
Nick Lodolo - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 32.4% K%
Lance Lynn - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%
Blake Snell - 86 TBF, 31.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 36.0% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 95 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 91 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 75 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 106 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 94 TBF, 62.9% GB%
Kyle Wright - 93 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 121 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Luis Castillo - 77 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 93 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 97 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Jose Urena - 86 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Martin Perez - 102 TBF, 53.6% GB%
George Kirby - 79 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Woodruff - 99 TBF, 30.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 79 TBF, 30.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 68 TBF, 33.8 K%, 1.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 121 TBF, 28.9 K%, 7.4 BB%, 59.7% GB%
George Kirby - 79 TBF, 27.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 53.6% GB%
Luis Castillo - 77 TBF, 32.5 K%, 3.9 BB%, 56.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 75 TBF, 33.3 K%, 2.7 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 32.4 K%, 2.9 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Trevor Rogers - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Spencer Strider - +3.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Lance Lynn - +4.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Framber Valdez - +2.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Aaron Nola - +2.4% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Chad Kuhl - +2.7% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Corbin Burnes - +3.8% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.3% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Jose Suarez - +3.3% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Ross Stripling - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +7.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Paolo Espino - +4.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.7% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Adam Oller - +4.9% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Sean Manaea - +2.1% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Dermis Garcia (OAK) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) 3 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) 8 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Adolis Garcia - 4.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Ryan Mountcastle - 5.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
4. Ji-Man Choi - 3.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
5. Jose Miranda - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
6. Mark Mathias - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
7. Triston Casas - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
8. Yordan Alvarez - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
9. Max Muncy - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
10. Jose Abreu - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 591.0 PA - 143.42 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 481.0 PA - 142.29 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 573.0 PA - 133.89 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 615.0 PA - 119.54 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 584.0 PA - 110.27 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 482.0 PA - 103.32 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 523.0 PA - 103.17 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 574.0 PA - 102.37 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 531.0 PA - 91.68 JA Points
10. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 382.0 PA - 90.37 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 114.2mph - double
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 113.7mph - field_out
Sam Huff (TEX) - 112.9mph - double
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 112.9mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.4mph - home_run
Corey Dickerson (STL) - 112.1mph - single
Ian Happ (CHC) - 111.6mph - home_run
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 111.3mph - foul
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.3mph - single
J.D. Martinez (BOS) - 110.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 77 PA, 51 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 79 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 73 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 77 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 53 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 55 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 75 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 68 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Eduardo Escobar - 58 PA, 47 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 74 PA, 0.513 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 68 PA, 0.492 xwOBA
Eduardo Escobar - 58 PA, 0.488 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 55 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 73 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 82 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 95 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe - 83 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 77 PA, 0.412 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 64 PA, 89 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 70 PA, 115 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 137 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 144 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 67 PA, 102 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Santiago Espinal - 52 PA, 99 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 67 PA, 110 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 75 PA, 151 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
David Fletcher - 69 PA, 92 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bo Bichette - 95 PA, 15.8 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 83 PA, 19.3 K%, 18.3 Brl%
Eduardo Escobar - 58 PA, 13.8 K%, 19.1 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 68 PA, 16.2 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Justin Turner - 73 PA, 15.1 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Luke Voit - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 55 PA, 10.9 K%, 20.5 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jose Abreu - +4.5% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Taylor Ward - +3.4% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -8.3 Chase%
Michael Harris II - +6.5% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Riley Greene - +7.0% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Yuli Gurriel - +7.5% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -8.6 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Eugenio Suarez - 0.415 xwOBA, 22.0% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 18.4% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Nick Pratto - 33.3% Whiff%, 76.2% Weak%, 0.946 Cold Rating
Bryce Harper - 32.9% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.923 Cold Rating
Mitch Haniger - 35.9% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating
JJ Bleday - 32.9% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.908 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 33.6% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Gary Sanchez - 34.9% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.89 Cold Rating
Oswaldo Cabrera - 33.0% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Emmanuel Rivera - 34.2% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Nick Allen - 28.2% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 33.0% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.829 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Minor League Stat Dashboards
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.