MLB DraftKings Analysis 8/30
I re-discovered these “Hundo” contests on DraftKings. There are typically only three of them open at a time, and you’re limited to single entry. The reason for that is that they are only 10% rake - which is a huge difference from the 15% you usually give away.
I lucked into a big lineup last night and actually won the $10, the $5, and took second in the $1 - for a couple hundred dollars profit there. I’ll be playing these for the rest of the season, really encouraging people to jump in with me - definitely the best contests out there.
Pitchers
Max Fried $9900 vs. COL
The Rockies away from Coors allow pitchers to score 17.08 points per start against them, the highest mark in the league. Fried is one of the most consistent pitchers in the league too in terms of tightness of the distribution of his scoring.
I just added this “Scoring Distribution” tab to the DraftKings Pitcher Scoring dashboard, you can use that to get an idea about consistency stuff like this.You can see that Fried and Manoea are the only two there with a high average and a strong consistency mark.
Fried is my cash SP1 tonight!
Aaron Nola $10,600 vs. ARI
The Diamondbacks are a better offense than you might think, and in fact, have really limited pitcher scoring over the last few months
Starters are averaging just 12.64 points per start since July 1st, a top-ten mark in the league. Team that together with Nola’s very high price tag and I don’t think he’s the guy for cash lineups.
George Kirby ($8,500) vs. DET
Great matchup, great form (30+ K% over the last month, averaging 21.3 DraftKings points per start since the break, and a really talented pitcher showing more upside lately. The floor is very high given the fact that he doesn’t walk anybody and hasn’t given up a homer in more than a month, and it helps that he’s facing the lineup in the league least likely to hit homers, so let’s go baby!
Team Offense
Bit of a shame that the Cardinals aren’t on the main slate, which makes the Braves the go-to offense here. Brewers also getting a decent bump, although I’m way less gung-ho on them since Keller has shown some competency recently and they may be without Rowdy Tellez tonight. So we’re really just focused on the Braves.
Here’s what the Braves have done since July began:
Matt Olson and Austin Riley are priority plays for me. Olson has a .347 xwOBA and 15 homers since July began, and he’s currently on all of the hot hitter indicators in the daily notes.
Those two are immediately going into my lineup against Urena, and I’ll likely end up on Grissom as well, with an outside chance of landing on Acuna, Harris, and Swanson.
Hitters projecting for 8.0+ points and a 2.0+ value
Witt Jr. (9.92, 2.02)
Yelich (9.06, 2.21)
Renfroe (8.56, 2.14)
Melendez (8.54, 2.03)
Happ (8.18, 2.05)
Wong (8.07, 2.60)
Paywall incoming, if you’re a paid subscriber, you’ll get my full player pool as well as an example lineup to start with. Sign up now for this and the full array of stuff I offer for MLB and NFL!