MLB DW Slate Preview - April 1
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
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Pitchers to Watch
We are still in search of our early season breakout SPs. We have seen some strong outings, but most of the names we have been monitoring struggled out of the gate. We’re back to most of the league’s SP1 tonight, but there are still a few names to watch.
Thomas Harrington: The Pirates start the season with seven straight games, so they’re going to Harrington to start their sixth game of the year. Harrington is a right-handed pitcher with a 26.5% K% and a 6.1% BB% in his minor league career. The command is there. I’m doubting the strikeouts will be there in the Majors, but I think something like a 23% K% and a 5% BB% could be possible for him. If he can keep the ball in the yard, that could work pretty well. So we’ll keep an eye on him tonight against the Rays.
Shane Baz: Baz is owned in around 70% of leagues, so this is more of a guy to watch for those of you in ten team leagues. He has been healthy for a record time now, and he’ll get his 2025 campaign started tonight against the Pirates. The strikeouts and the whiffs weren’t there last year, and he didn’t look all that great in the spring, either. But there’s upside with Baz. I wouldn’t have let him stay available in any league I was in because this matchup with the Pirates is so nice. I don’t expect a great season from him, but he’s someone who should be owned, at least for right now.
Dustin May: This is another guy who is owned in sharp leagues. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen May (his last MLB start was 5/17/2023), but he won a job in the Dodgers rotation and will debut tonight. I don’t think he’s going to throw more than 80 or so pitches any time soon, and the innings will certainly be monitored overall. But the guy is nasty. He generates a ton of weak contact and is capable of posting some really great ERA and WHIP marks.
Casey Mize: There’s talk about an improved splitter from Mize this year. I’m not buying it, but we’ll see. The fastball is decent, and this is a great matchup to get him started. I’m not opposed to streaming in for this start, and who knows, maybe the secondary stuff has finally been fixed
Hayden Wesneski: He came back to Houston in the Kyle Tucker trade, and they’ve put him in the rotation, at least for now. I’m projecting him for 74 pitches. I don’t expect much production from Wesneski, but he does have an interesting pitch mix. We’ve seen the Astros get the best out of arm talent in the past, so he’s a guy worth watching.
DFS Preview
Pitchers
Logan Gilbert ($9,000) vs Tigers: It doesn’t get much safer than this. Gilbert throws an absolute ton of quality strikes, he’s pitching at home, and this Tigers lineup is poor. Fire him up.
Corbin Burnes ($8,600) vs. Yankees: The Yankees are hitting .333/.427/.804 early on with 15 homers. But that’s a three-game sample, and they haven’t seen many competent pitcher so far. This is Burnes’ Diamondbacks debut, and he’s been a very reliable pitcher for years now. Burnes also doesn’t give up many homers, so it’s a decent matchup for him in that regard. I think he’ll be pretty low-owned as people avoid the torpedo bat narrative. Maybe he’s better for a tournament-style contest where you want to get low-owned players, but I’m considering him in cash as well.
Justin Steele ($8,200) vs. Athletics: It hasn’t been the smoothest beginning to Steele’s season, but this guy has earned forgiveness in his career. He’s a solid pitcher in a decent matchup here. The Athletics will probably hit their share of homers this year, but they also will strike out a good bit - and Steele is pretty great at limiting the long ball. I think he’s a safe option tonight.
Shane Baz ($8,000) vs. Pirates: I’m not really a Baz guy, and the model doesn’t love him in this spot either. But I also won’t be surprised if he comes out and impresses against this weak Pirates lineup.
My plays are Gilbert + Burnes tonight. There are no super cheap options to like (maybe Mize for $7,500 if you have to go down below $8K?), so I’m locking in those two studs.
Stacks
Diamondbacks vs Will Warren: The Snakes play in Yankees Stadium tonight, and that’s a huge upgrade from their home park - especially for left-handed hitters. We want to load up some of these upside Arizona bats.
Brewers vs. Michael Lorenzen: The Brewers have been beaten down early on, and they’ve got to be excited to open their season at home against a super-hittable arm in Lorenzen. Lorenzen posted a 4.46 ERA with a very poor 7% K-BB% last year. There will be a bunch of balls going into play off Milwaukee bats tonight.
Royals vs. Chad Patrick: I mean… who? Chad Patrick spent all of 2024 in the minors. He was effective there with a 26% K% and a 7% BB% for a 2.90 ERA, but he looks more like a “quad-A” type pitcher. He’s 26 already and hasn’t ever made a splash in the Majors to this point, so it seems unlikely that he’ll have a bunch of success tonight against a Royals offense who also find themselves in an elevated spot because of the ballpark.
Nationals vs. Jose Berrios: Berrios got tanked on Opening Day. That might get some unearned ownership on the Nats. While Berrios gets hit around at times, he pairs that with a bunch of solid outings. The Nats have some upside bats this year (Crews, Wood, Garcia, Abrams), so I do have to give them the “upside nod” here, but I much prefer the first three stacks listed here.
Priority Bats
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,100) vs. Chad Patrick
William Contreras ($4,500) vs. Michael Lorenzen
C.J. Abrams ($5,000) vs. Jose Berrios
Matt Chapman ($4,500) vs. Hayden Wesneski
Corbin Carroll ($5,800) vs. Will Warren
Christian Yelich ($4,800) vs. Michael Lorenzen
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,700) vs. Trevor Williams
Value Bats
Pavin Smith ($3,000) vs. Will Warren
Alan Roden ($2,000) vs. Trevor Williams
Alek Thomas ($2,200) vs. Will Warren
Ryan Bliss ($3,000) vs. Casey Mize
Nick Maton ($2,000) vs. Woods Richardson
Matt Wallner ($4,000) vs. Shane Smith
Jake Mangum ($2,500) vs. Thomas Harrington