MLB DW Slate Preview - April 19th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
With so little baseball stuff going on last night, I was able to turn my phone off at 4:00 and I didn’t turn it back on, and that was pretty great. I could do that every night, of course, but hey - baby steps.
But a day with light action really gets you excited for a loaded Friday night slate, which is what we have tonight. All 30 teams in action with just that one classic weird 2:20 Wrigley Field game. I kind of hate that to be honest, just knock it off with the 2:20 stuff bro it’s old hat.
We have the Mariners in Coors, although it’s cold there and there might be rain as well, so there isn’t a clear standout spot for bats here tonight.
It would seem that DraftKings Sportsbook isn’t really onto the fact that Triston McKenzie is pitching hurt. My model likes the under 5.5 strikeouts (-165) line there and the over 2.5 walks (+130) line as well - and that’s without any injury-related adjustments being built into the model today.
The other standout prop is MacKenzie Gore under 5.5 strikeouts at -160. That doesn’t sound great really given how good Gore has pitched, but I think my model is fine on this one, it’s really just the matchups with the Astros. The Astros have a team 14.9% K% against lefties this year (228 PA). Every single hitter in the lineup, save Jose Abreu (if he plays) has a sub-20% K% against lefties so far. So Gore is up against it today even with him clearly being a better pitcher than last year.
A non-model take from me with Quinn Priester. The model hates him, as it should, because he was garbage in the Majors last year (15.4% K%, 11.5% BB%), but he’s a different pitcher this year. He’s throwing more four-seamers, harder sinkers, and his curveball numbers are much better this year than last (even when just comparing AAA to AAA). So I think he’s going to at least have a higher strikeout rate this year given the change to the pitch mix (more four-seamers alone should raise the whiff rate). None of this is built into the model, so this is a Jon’s Pirate-Fan Brain special. At this point, there are no Priester props on DraftKings, but I’ll be checking those out when/if they arrive.
Plenty of cheap young hitter DK plays tonight, so it’s feeling like a stars-and-scrubs kind of night. We have Jonatan Clase ($2,900) in Coors. Who knows if he can hit Major League pitching, but I’m pretty sure he can handle himself in Coors against Dakota Hudson, and the steals upside alone makes him a solid DFS play. There are plenty of ways to end up on base, and if you can walk and swipe a bag, you’ve done your part for the $2,900.
Lawrence Butler ($2,100) is so much too cheap with his good start to the season (23.3% K%, 15.8% Brl%, .412 xwOBA). The Athletics stack is pretty enticing honestly against No-Elbow McKenzie in Cleveland. You are only paying more than $4,000 for one of them (Zack Gelof).
Pitching wise, we’re all over Joe Ryan against the Tigers, and the model is even pretty hot on Jack Flaherty on the other side against the Twins. It’s giving him some credit for the walk rate gains and this Twins lineup is very susceptible to the strikeout:
At the bottom of this list we find the Astros and even the Padres, who are putting out a contact-heavy lineup this year:
So that’s it for my extra commentary, onto the normal stuff. Thanks for reading, happy Friday night baby!
Slate Preview
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
SEA (vs. Dakota Hudson): 80.88 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Nick Lodolo): 74.73 Projected Points
HOU (vs. MacKenzie Gore): 74.12 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Sean Manaea): 73.88 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Andrew Heaney): 71.7 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
WSH (vs. Justin Verlander): 54.67 Projected Points
DET (vs. Joe Ryan): 56.17 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Spencer Turnbull): 58.03 Projected Points
CLE (vs. Joe Boyle): 58.39 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Triston McKenzie): 59.74 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
SEA: 80.88 Today, 65.03 Season Average
LAA: 74.73 Today, 62.27 Season Average
HOU: 74.12 Today, 66.38 Season Average
CIN: 71.03 Today, 64.5 Season Average
LAD: 73.88 Today, 67.52 Season Average
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Garrett Crochet: 14.89 Today, 14.27 Previous Max
Spencer Turnbull: 13.79 Today, 13.21 Previous Max
Logan O'Hoppe: 9.94 Today, 8.72 Previous Max
J.P. Crawford: 9.06 Today, 8.65 Previous Max
Anthony Rendon: 8.76 Today, 8.01 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Joe Ryan $8900 vs. DET: 18.41 points
Jack Flaherty $7700 vs. MIN: 16.54 points
Blake Snell $9300 vs. ARI: 16.43 points
Freddy Peralta $9500 vs. STL: 15.84 points
Chris Sale $9400 vs. TEX: 15.39 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Tyler Alexander $5500 vs. NYY: 12.33 points, 2.24 value
Yariel Rodriguez $5000 vs. SD: 11.14 points, 2.23 value
Jack Flaherty $7700 vs. MIN: 16.54 points, 2.15 value
Joe Ryan $8900 vs. DET: 18.41 points, 2.07 value
Emerson Hancock $6400 vs. COL: 11.99 points, 1.87 value
Catchers
1. Cal Raleigh ($4500) vs. Dakota Hudson: 8.9 points, 1.23 score
2. Will Smith ($4700) vs. Sean Manaea: 8.64 points, 1.18 score
3. William Contreras ($5000) vs. Kyle Gibson: 8.9 points, 1.17 score
4. Danny Jansen ($3300) vs. Matt Waldron: 7.5 points, 1.16 score
5. Ryan Jeffers ($4200) vs. Jack Flaherty: 8.33 points, 1.13 score
First Base
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6300) vs. Sean Manaea: 10.24 points, 1.27 score
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4800) vs. Matt Waldron: 8.91 points, 1.19 score
3. Matt Olson ($6000) vs. Andrew Heaney: 9.47 points, 1.18 score
4. Freddie Freeman ($5900) vs. Sean Manaea: 9.07 points, 1.17 score
5. Pete Alonso ($5300) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8.95 points, 1.15 score
Second Base
1. Mookie Betts ($6600) vs. Sean Manaea: 10.93 points, 1.35 score
2. Jorge Polanco ($5000) vs. Dakota Hudson: 9.94 points, 1.32 score
3. Edouard Julien ($3800) vs. Jack Flaherty: 8.67 points, 1.23 score
4. Zack Gelof ($4700) vs. Triston McKenzie: 8.21 points, 1.06 score
5. Marcus Semien ($5100) vs. Chris Sale: 8.08 points, 1.06 score
Third Base
1. Austin Riley ($6000) vs. Andrew Heaney: 9.59 points, 1.17 score
2. Willi Castro ($3000) vs. Jack Flaherty: 7.26 points, 1.09 score
3. Ryan McMahon ($5300) vs. Emerson Hancock: 8.73 points, 1.08 score
4. Jose Ramirez ($5900) vs. Joe Boyle: 7.97 points, 1.07 score
5. Manny Machado ($5100) vs. Yariel Rodriguez: 7.61 points, 1.05 score
Shortstop
1. Mookie Betts ($6600) vs. Sean Manaea: 10.93 points, 1.35 score
2. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6400) vs. Dean Kremer: 10.64 points, 1.28 score
3. Gunnar Henderson ($5400) vs. Alec Marsh: 9.16 points, 1.24 score
4. Anthony Volpe ($4600) vs. Tyler Alexander: 9.15 points, 1.18 score
5. Orlando Arcia ($4000) vs. Andrew Heaney: 8.69 points, 1.16 score
Outfield
1. Jonatan Clase ($2900) vs. Dakota Hudson: 10.16 points, 1.6 score
2. Aaron Judge ($6100) vs. Tyler Alexander: 11.87 points, 1.53 score
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6500) vs. Andrew Heaney: 12.03 points, 1.5 score
4. Julio Rodriguez ($5900) vs. Dakota Hudson: 11.27 points, 1.41 score
5. Shohei Ohtani ($6300) vs. Sean Manaea: 10.24 points, 1.27 score
6. Nolan Jones ($4900) vs. Emerson Hancock: 9.14 points, 1.23 score
7. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5700) vs. Yariel Rodriguez: 9.05 points, 1.21 score
8. Sal Frelick ($3600) vs. Kyle Gibson: 8.67 points, 1.2 score
9. Juan Soto ($6000) vs. Tyler Alexander: 9.83 points, 1.2 score
10. Lawrence Butler ($2100) vs. Triston McKenzie: 7.06 points, 1.19 score
11. Giancarlo Stanton ($4600) vs. Tyler Alexander: 8.8 points, 1.18 score
12. Byron Buxton ($4400) vs. Jack Flaherty: 8.56 points, 1.18 score
13. Starling Marte ($3800) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8.09 points, 1.16 score
14. Teoscar Hernandez ($5000) vs. Sean Manaea: 8.59 points, 1.15 score
15. George Springer ($4500) vs. Matt Waldron: 8.69 points, 1.15 score
Game-by-Game Previews
MIA @ CHC
Projected Game Score:
CHC 4.46 - MIA 4.28
CHC 51.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 8.74
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
A.J. Puk: 3 GS, 1204 Pitches, 28.9 K%, 8.4 BB%, 14.4 SwStr%, 50.7 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%, 42.7 GB%, 6 Brl%
Jameson Taillon: 29 GS, 2533 Pitches, 21.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 47.4 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%, 38.4 GB%, 11 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
A.J. Puk (MIA): 86 Pitches 5.0 IP, 4.7 H, 2.4 ER, 5.3 K, 1.8 BB, 13.5 FPts
Jameson Taillon (CHC): 76 Pitches 4.85 IP, 5.2 H, 2.4 ER, 4.3 K, 1.2 BB, 11.43 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
A.J. Puk - 4.5 strikeouts
Jameson Taillon - 4.5 strikeouts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.52 PA, 1.32 H, 1.79 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.79 FPts
2. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.45 PA, 1.11 H, 1.9 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.01 FPts
3. Jazz Chisholm: 4.22 PA, 1.0 H, 1.94 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.18 SB, 9.28 FPts
4. Josh Bell: 4.27 PA, 0.99 H, 1.75 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.02 FPts
5. Jesus Sanchez: 3.94 PA, 0.9 H, 1.62 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.51 FPts
6. Tim Anderson: 3.99 PA, 0.97 H, 1.3 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.1 FPts
7. Nick Gordon: 3.56 PA, 0.9 H, 1.47 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.49 FPts
8. Emmanuel Rivera: 3.6 PA, 0.81 H, 1.32 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.84 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.51 PA, 0.75 H, 1.15 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.26 FPts
CHC Hitter Projections
1. Nico Hoerner: 4.51 PA, 1.13 H, 1.51 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.0 FPts
2. Patrick Wisdom: 4.02 PA, 0.77 H, 1.72 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.86 FPts
3. Cody Bellinger: 4.31 PA, 0.96 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.28 FPts
4. Christopher Morel: 4.15 PA, 0.92 H, 1.83 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.63 FPts
5. Dansby Swanson: 4.08 PA, 0.93 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.7 FPts
6. Ian Happ: 3.99 PA, 0.83 H, 1.36 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.1 FPts
7. Garrett Cooper: 3.85 PA, 0.88 H, 1.48 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.53 FPts
8. Nick Madrigal: 3.73 PA, 0.94 H, 1.2 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.75 FPts
9. Miguel Amaya: 3.39 PA, 0.77 H, 1.28 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.0 FPts
Best Bets
A.J. Puk MIA - Walks Under 2.5 (+105) - 0.24 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
LAA @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
LAA 5.7 - CIN 5.04
LAA 53.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 10.74
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Nick Lodolo: 8 GS, 737 Pitches, 30.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 14.7 SwStr%, 50.3 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%, 46.4 GB%, 12 Brl%
Tyler Anderson: 28 GS, 2698 Pitches, 18.7 K%, 9.9 BB%, 13.9 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%, 31.3 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Nick Lodolo (CIN): 92 Pitches 5.54 IP, 5.0 H, 3.1 ER, 7.4 K, 1.8 BB, 17.02 FPts
Tyler Anderson (LAA): 91 Pitches 5.67 IP, 5.6 H, 3.0 ER, 5.3 K, 2.1 BB, 13.3 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Nick Lodolo - Prop Not Found
Tyler Anderson - 5.5 strikeouts
LAA Hitter Projections
1. Anthony Rendon: 4.44 PA, 0.97 H, 1.71 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.76 FPts
2. Mike Trout: 4.39 PA, 1.06 H, 2.33 TB, 0.35 HR, 0.06 SB, 10.85 FPts
3. Taylor Ward: 4.33 PA, 1.05 H, 1.96 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.05 SB, 9.4 FPts
4. Miguel Sano: 4.25 PA, 0.75 H, 1.51 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.92 FPts
5. Logan O'Hoppe: 4.11 PA, 1.07 H, 2.28 TB, 0.34 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.94 FPts
6. Aaron Hicks: 3.91 PA, 0.79 H, 1.33 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.01 FPts
7. Jo Adell: 3.79 PA, 0.69 H, 1.27 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.03 FPts
8. Luis Rengifo: 3.64 PA, 0.92 H, 1.66 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.76 FPts
9. Zach Neto: 3.5 PA, 0.79 H, 1.49 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.06 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Jonathan India: 4.44 PA, 1.01 H, 1.67 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.61 FPts
2. Spencer Steer: 4.44 PA, 1.05 H, 1.79 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.17 FPts
3. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 4.27 PA, 1.1 H, 2.05 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.88 FPts
4. Jeimer Candelario: 4.19 PA, 0.98 H, 1.78 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.12 FPts
5. Stuart Fairchild: 3.74 PA, 0.82 H, 1.47 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.9 FPts
6. Elly De La Cruz: 4.01 PA, 0.91 H, 1.64 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.25 SB, 8.77 FPts
7. Santiago Espinal: 3.57 PA, 0.88 H, 1.23 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.31 FPts
8. Luke Maile: 3.5 PA, 0.8 H, 1.44 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.77 FPts
9. Bubba Thompson: 3.55 PA, 0.79 H, 1.18 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.24 SB, 6.5 FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
CWS @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 4.47 - CWS 3.58
PHI 55.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.05
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Garrett Crochet: 4 GS, 641 Pitches, 28.3 K%, 11.2 BB%, 14.5 SwStr%, 49.1 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%, 40.0 GB%, 7 Brl%
Spencer Turnbull: 10 GS, 808 Pitches, 19.0 K%, 9.8 BB%, 9.9 SwStr%, 45.2 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%, 47.9 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Garrett Crochet (CWS): 86 Pitches 5.13 IP, 4.3 H, 2.3 ER, 5.7 K, 2.2 BB, 14.89 FPts
Spencer Turnbull (PHI): 88 Pitches 5.31 IP, 4.7 H, 2.3 ER, 5.0 K, 1.9 BB, 13.79 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Garrett Crochet - 6.5 strikeouts
Spencer Turnbull - 5.5 strikeouts
CWS Hitter Projections
1. Robbie Grossman: 4.46 PA, 0.79 H, 1.24 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.93 FPts
2. Andrew Vaughn: 4.49 PA, 1.04 H, 1.66 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.06 FPts
3. Gavin Sheets: 4.15 PA, 0.91 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.03 FPts
4. Eloy Jimenez: 4.28 PA, 1.08 H, 1.81 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.65 FPts
5. Andrew Benintendi: 4.16 PA, 1.0 H, 1.36 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.61 FPts
6. Paul DeJong: 3.98 PA, 0.72 H, 1.21 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.42 FPts
7. Braden Shewmake: 3.98 PA, 0.88 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.05 FPts
8. Nicky Lopez: 3.68 PA, 0.86 H, 1.11 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.88 FPts
9. Martin Maldonado: 3.42 PA, 0.54 H, 0.95 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.4 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.54 PA, 0.72 H, 1.53 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.43 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.41 PA, 1.06 H, 1.75 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.67 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.28 PA, 0.9 H, 1.58 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.48 FPts
4. J.T. Realmuto: 4.21 PA, 0.95 H, 1.71 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.17 FPts
5. Alec Bohm: 4.12 PA, 0.98 H, 1.51 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.03 FPts
6. Nick Castellanos: 4.01 PA, 0.89 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.64 FPts
7. Bryson Stott: 3.9 PA, 0.88 H, 1.28 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.8 FPts
8. Whit Merrifield: 3.7 PA, 0.81 H, 1.16 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.08 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.42 PA, 0.76 H, 1.06 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.22 SB, 6.2 FPts
Best Bets
Garrett Crochet CWS - Strikeouts Under 6.5 (-115) - 0.126 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
BOS @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
BOS 4.68 - PIT 4.28
BOS 52.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.96
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Brayan Bello: 32 GS, 2985 Pitches, 20.0 K%, 6.6 BB%, 12.0 SwStr%, 44.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%, 55.3 GB%, 7 Brl%
Quinn Priester: 8 GS, 866 Pitches, 15.4 K%, 11.5 BB%, 10.4 SwStr%, 41.5 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%, 53.0 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Brayan Bello (BOS): 91 Pitches 5.2 IP, 5.1 H, 2.5 ER, 4.9 K, 1.8 BB, 12.98 FPts
Quinn Priester (PIT): 87 Pitches 5.34 IP, 5.6 H, 3.0 ER, 4.1 K, 2.6 BB, 9.83 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Brayan Bello - 4.5 strikeouts
Quinn Priester - Prop Not Found
BOS Hitter Projections
1. Jarren Duran: 4.35 PA, 1.07 H, 1.63 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.24 SB, 8.9 FPts
2. Triston Casas: 4.31 PA, 0.88 H, 1.62 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.71 FPts
3. Masataka Yoshida: 4.24 PA, 1.14 H, 1.73 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.02 FPts
4. Wilyer Abreu: 3.95 PA, 0.8 H, 1.4 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.5 FPts
5. Enmanuel Valdez: 3.69 PA, 0.85 H, 1.5 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.32 FPts
6. Connor Wong: 3.81 PA, 0.85 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.45 FPts
7. David Hamilton: 3.7 PA, 0.79 H, 1.24 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.35 SB, 8.26 FPts
8. Pablo Reyes: 3.47 PA, 0.84 H, 1.22 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.23 FPts
9. Ceddanne Rafaela: 3.44 PA, 0.81 H, 1.38 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.84 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Oneil Cruz: 4.48 PA, 0.95 H, 1.64 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.81 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.39 PA, 1.09 H, 1.83 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.49 FPts
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.31 PA, 1.06 H, 1.56 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.1 FPts
4. Rowdy Tellez: 4.09 PA, 0.86 H, 1.5 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.91 FPts
5. Edward Olivares: 4.08 PA, 1.02 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.61 FPts
6. Jack Suwinski: 3.92 PA, 0.74 H, 1.45 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.42 FPts
7. Connor Joe: 3.88 PA, 0.83 H, 1.26 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.27 FPts
8. Jared Triolo: 3.74 PA, 0.84 H, 1.2 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.31 FPts
9. Henry Davis: 3.55 PA, 0.73 H, 1.13 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.78 FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
HOU @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
HOU 5.54 - WSH 3.22
HOU 63.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.76
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Justin Verlander: 27 GS, 2602 Pitches, 21.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 11.1 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%, 36.2 GB%, 8 Brl%
MacKenzie Gore: 30 GS, 2745 Pitches, 26.9 K%, 9.6 BB%, 13.8 SwStr%, 48.2 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%, 38.5 GB%, 12 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Justin Verlander (HOU): 85 Pitches 5.72 IP, 5.4 H, 2.5 ER, 5.3 K, 1.4 BB, 15.03 FPts
MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 91 Pitches 5.07 IP, 5.5 H, 2.9 ER, 3.9 K, 2.3 BB, 9.3 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Justin Verlander - 5.5 strikeouts
MacKenzie Gore - 5.5 strikeouts
HOU Hitter Projections
1. Jose Altuve: 4.39 PA, 1.07 H, 1.94 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.68 FPts
2. Yordan Alvarez: 4.39 PA, 1.1 H, 2.17 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.02 SB, 10.26 FPts
3. Alex Bregman: 4.27 PA, 0.95 H, 1.54 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.03 FPts
4. Kyle Tucker: 4.19 PA, 1.03 H, 1.89 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.53 FPts
5. Yainer Diaz: 4.11 PA, 1.08 H, 2.02 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.41 FPts
6. Jeremy Pena: 3.99 PA, 0.98 H, 1.51 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.27 FPts
7. Chas McCormick: 3.86 PA, 0.88 H, 1.6 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.1 FPts
8. Jose Abreu: 3.72 PA, 0.86 H, 1.51 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.78 FPts
9. Mauricio Dubon: 3.5 PA, 0.86 H, 1.32 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.06 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.28 PA, 1.06 H, 1.73 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.24 SB, 8.24 FPts
2. Jesse Winker: 3.93 PA, 0.78 H, 1.2 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.17 FPts
3. Lane Thomas: 4.1 PA, 0.93 H, 1.63 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.28 FPts
4. Luis Garcia: 3.98 PA, 1.03 H, 1.56 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.65 FPts
5. Joey Meneses: 3.92 PA, 0.92 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.75 FPts
6. Joey Gallo: 3.55 PA, 0.52 H, 1.22 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.74 FPts
7. Nick Senzel: 3.54 PA, 0.74 H, 1.08 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.06 SB, 4.99 FPts
8. Eddie Rosario: 3.39 PA, 0.74 H, 1.22 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.1 FPts
9. Riley Adams: 3.32 PA, 0.66 H, 1.14 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.75 FPts
Best Bets
MacKenzie Gore WSH - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-160) - 0.186 value
Joey Gallo WSH - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+125) - 0.158 value
Jesse Winker WSH - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+200) - 0.149 value
Justin Verlander HOU - Pitcher Hits Over 4.5 (+110) - 0.147 value
Alex Bregman HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+105) - 0.131 value
Kyle Tucker HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+135) - 0.128 value
Mauricio Dubon HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-125) - 0.108 value
Jose Abreu HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+190) - 0.104 value
Yordan Alvarez HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+190) - 0.1 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
TB @ NYY
Projected Game Score:
NYY 5.06 - TB 4.12
NYY 55.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.18
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Clarke Schmidt: 35 GS, 2963 Pitches, 21.8 K%, 7.1 BB%, 10.9 SwStr%, 47.2 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 43.6 GB%, 7 Brl%
Tyler Alexander: 2 GS, 940 Pitches, 22.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 8.9 SwStr%, 50.6 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%, 30.8 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 86 Pitches 5.28 IP, 4.8 H, 2.3 ER, 4.7 K, 1.8 BB, 13.06 FPts
Tyler Alexander (TB): 84 Pitches 5.35 IP, 5.6 H, 2.8 ER, 4.9 K, 1.6 BB, 12.33 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Clarke Schmidt - 5.5 strikeouts
Tyler Alexander - 3.5 strikeouts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.4 PA, 1.1 H, 1.68 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.06 FPts
2. Randy Arozarena: 4.38 PA, 0.96 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.42 FPts
3. Richie Palacios: 4.12 PA, 0.98 H, 1.51 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.4 FPts
4. Isaac Paredes: 4.13 PA, 0.86 H, 1.55 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.46 FPts
5. Harold Ramirez: 4.02 PA, 1.02 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.44 FPts
6. Amed Rosario: 3.91 PA, 0.99 H, 1.4 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.51 FPts
7. Jose Caballero: 3.74 PA, 0.78 H, 1.16 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.25 SB, 6.93 FPts
8. Jose Siri: 3.72 PA, 0.76 H, 1.46 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.2 SB, 7.37 FPts
9. Ben Rortvedt: 3.2 PA, 0.59 H, 0.98 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.92 FPts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Anthony Volpe: 4.39 PA, 1.01 H, 1.83 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.19 SB, 9.15 FPts
2. Juan Soto: 4.24 PA, 1.0 H, 1.94 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.83 FPts
3. Aaron Judge: 4.19 PA, 1.14 H, 2.66 TB, 0.44 HR, 0.03 SB, 11.87 FPts
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 4.05 PA, 0.9 H, 2.03 TB, 0.33 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.8 FPts
5. Anthony Rizzo: 3.98 PA, 0.9 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.02 FPts
6. Gleyber Torres: 3.89 PA, 0.98 H, 1.68 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.79 FPts
7. Alex Verdugo: 3.69 PA, 0.9 H, 1.36 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.12 FPts
8. Jose Trevino: 3.42 PA, 0.81 H, 1.25 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.4 FPts
9. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.42 PA, 0.73 H, 1.13 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.47 FPts
Best Bets
Richie Palacios TB - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+160) - 0.127 value
Tyler Alexander TB - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-145) - 0.124 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6100: 11.87 Proj, 1.53 Score
Juan Soto (NYY) OF $6000: 9.83 Proj, 1.2 Score
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) OF $4600: 8.8 Proj, 1.18 Score
Anthony Volpe (NYY) SS $4600: 9.15 Proj, 1.18 Score
Randy Arozarena (TB) OF $5600: 8.42 Proj, 1.02 Score
OAK @ CLE
Projected Game Score:
OAK 3.8 - CLE 3.42
OAK 52.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 7.22
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Triston McKenzie: 7 GS, 549 Pitches, 15.6 K%, 18.5 BB%, 9.3 SwStr%, 41.3 Strike%, 42.4 Ball%, 34.8 GB%, 9 Brl%
Joe Boyle: 6 GS, 497 Pitches, 24.8 K%, 10.7 BB%, 10.5 SwStr%, 44.9 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%, 32.5 GB%, 3 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Triston McKenzie (CLE): 90 Pitches 5.68 IP, 4.6 H, 2.7 ER, 4.6 K, 3.5 BB, 12.3 FPts
Joe Boyle (OAK): 85 Pitches 5.05 IP, 4.6 H, 2.1 ER, 4.0 K, 1.8 BB, 11.65 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Triston McKenzie - 5.5 strikeouts
Joe Boyle - 4.5 strikeouts
OAK Hitter Projections
1. Abraham Toro: 4.27 PA, 0.89 H, 1.49 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.99 FPts
2. Zack Gelof: 4.17 PA, 0.89 H, 1.64 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.21 FPts
3. JJ Bleday: 3.9 PA, 0.63 H, 1.06 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.54 FPts
4. Brent Rooker: 3.85 PA, 0.75 H, 1.49 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.13 FPts
5. Seth Brown: 3.66 PA, 0.76 H, 1.46 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.91 FPts
6. Shea Langeliers: 3.77 PA, 0.74 H, 1.46 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.29 FPts
7. Lawrence Butler: 3.47 PA, 0.74 H, 1.34 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.06 FPts
8. Nick Allen: 3.44 PA, 0.67 H, 0.87 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.11 SB, 4.61 FPts
9. Ryan Noda: 3.23 PA, 0.51 H, 0.94 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.0 FPts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.45 PA, 1.07 H, 1.36 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.07 FPts
2. Andres Gimenez: 4.32 PA, 1.0 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.37 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.25 PA, 1.04 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.97 FPts
4. Josh Naylor: 4.16 PA, 1.08 H, 1.79 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.75 FPts
5. Bo Naylor: 3.98 PA, 0.67 H, 1.12 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.1 FPts
6. Ramon Laureano: 3.82 PA, 0.71 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.74 FPts
7. Will Brennan: 3.71 PA, 0.96 H, 1.34 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.11 FPts
8. Gabriel Arias: 3.57 PA, 0.65 H, 1.06 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.16 FPts
9. Brayan Rocchio: 3.49 PA, 0.71 H, 1.07 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.12 FPts
Best Bets
Triston McKenzie CLE - Walks Over 2.5 (+130) - 0.237 value
Joe Boyle OAK - Walks Under 2.5 (-150) - 0.144 value
Ryan Noda OAK - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-175) - 0.136 value
Abraham Toro OAK - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+155) - 0.12 value
JJ Bleday OAK - Hitter Hits Under 0.5 (+135) - 0.107 value
Seth Brown OAK - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-240) - 0.103 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Lawrence Butler (OAK) OF $2100: 7.06 Proj, 1.19 Score
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3B $5900: 7.97 Proj, 1.07 Score
Zack Gelof (OAK) 2B $4700: 8.21 Proj, 1.06 Score
Seth Brown (OAK) OF $3100: 6.91 Proj, 1.01 Score
Josh Naylor (CLE) 1B $4900: 7.75 Proj, 1.01 Score
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