MLB DW Slate Preview - April 1st
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
If you play DraftKings DFS, join our league here. I will run daily $5 contests in there.
First regular day for me here, so I’m excited to get into the game previews and play a little DFS myself. I’ve been entering the contests in the league linked above, but I haven’t really been able to look much into stuff.
Games start early today with one of those classic Cubs 2:20 games. I’m glad that’s not on the main slate, because I don’t friggin know what to do with Shota Imanaga. The best I can do right now is just pretend that he is Nestor Cortes, so that’s where my projection comes from today. That could be overly optimistic, or it could be a little bit pessimistic. We’ll know more after this outing today.
April 1st Slate Preview
The Braves get to face off against Chris Flexen, so that’s the spot of the day. That’s an early game though, so not on the main slate. Flexen went for a putrid 15.9% K% last year with a .370 xwOBA allowed. He is one of the worst pitchers in the league, and the Braves are arguably the best lineup.
Baseball is incredibly random, just keep that in mind. It’s not like the Braves are guaranteed to score seven runs today, but they’ll almost certainly put a bunch of balls in play that will be hit very hard.
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ATL (vs. Chris Flexen): 83.38 Projected Points
NYY (vs. Ryne Nelson): 81.26 Projected Points
SF (vs. James Paxton): 74.7 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Keaton Winn): 72.82 Projected Points
CHC (vs. Dakota Hudson): 72.56 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
CWS (vs. Charlie Morton): 55.53 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Tanner Houck): 57.95 Projected Points
DET (vs. Sean Manaea): 59.39 Projected Points
COL (vs. Shota Imanaga): 61.11 Projected Points
MIA (vs. Chase Silseth): 61.48 Projected Points
I’ve got lineup scores on the pitcher projection sheet. This takes today’s lineup and averages out each team’s OPS, K%, and BB%. That gives you a quick idea of what lineups are most exploitable.
Usually there aren’t many surprises there, but it’s worth checking especially when a key bat is out of the lineup.
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
NYY: 81.26 Today, 65.18 Season Average
SF: 74.7 Today, 61.87 Season Average
ATL: 83.38 Today, 71.7 Season Average
CHC: 72.56 Today, 63.7 Season Average
PHI: 72.46 Today, 65.93 Season Average
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Cristopher Sanchez: 14.89 Today, 13.68 Previous Max
Juan Soto: 11.15 Today, 11.01 Previous Max
Gunnar Henderson: 9.86 Today, 9.35 Previous Max
Michael Busch: 7.83 Today, 7.71 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Tanner Houck $8400 vs. OAK: 16.2 points
Triston McKenzie $9000 vs. SEA: 15.3 points
Joe Boyle $7500 vs. BOS: 14.64 points
Sean Manaea $7800 vs. DET: 14.49 points
James Paxton $8600 vs. SF: 12.7 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Joe Boyle $7500 vs. BOS: 14.64 points, 1.95 value
Tanner Houck $8400 vs. OAK: 16.2 points, 1.93 value
Sean Manaea $7800 vs. DET: 14.49 points, 1.86 value
Triston McKenzie $9000 vs. SEA: 15.3 points, 1.7 value
James Paxton $8600 vs. SF: 12.7 points, 1.48 value
I wouldn’t touch Joe Boyle with a ten foot poll with the walk rate that we’ve talked about. But he does have some strikeout upside if enough of pitches can find the strike zone. He is pretty nasty, so he’s a fine-ish GPP play, I guess.
We are on the SP4 or SP5 for almost every team, which means it’s a light slate for pitching. I don’t think Houck has as much upside as people think, but it’s hard to deny the matchup here at $8,400.
My cash pitchers will probably be Houck and McKenzie, but you could consider the very cheap dudes like Ronel Blanco and Ryne Nelson here just to save some money without giving up a ton at SP2 since there aren’t any true aces on the board.
The GPP options in my opinion: Houck, McKenzie, Boyle, Paxton, Olson, Gil, Blanco, Nelson
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