MLB DW Slate Preview - April 21
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Let’s go game-by-game here because I’m so hype about the MLB DW Slate Analysis App (check the resource glossary for access - best used on PC/tablet).
Yankees vs. Guardians
This one isn’t on the DFS slate, so we don’t have to worry about DFS pricing. We have two pitchers who like pretty hittable over the last couple of years.
Clarke Schmidt is just getting his season started after beginning the year on the IL. This will be his second start. Dating back to last year, he’s been awesome against lefties with a 31% K% and .303 xwOBA allowed. He’s also limited hard contact to righties (.300 xwOBA), but he doesn’t get nearly as many strikeouts (19%). None of that really makes sense to me. I don’t really believe in “reverse splits”, I think they’re just a consequence of random things happening in small sample (89 innings in this sample). Some Guardians pop against the right-handed movement that Schmidt puts out there:
Manzardo doesn’t have the “hot” notation there, but he has homered in back-to-back games and is off to a pretty nice start this season in the power hitting arena.
As for Gavin Williams, it’s been a struggle. He now has double-digit walk rates (just above 10%) to both sides of the plate, but he’s also not a guy getting whalloped out there often (.326 xwOBA).
With the park downgrade, it’s tough to buy into the established prices on the Yankees. These guys are all going to be juiced up (whether it be DFS or betting lines) because of the power show they’ve put on early on. And that’s less likely to play out the same in Cleveland as compared to Yankees Stadium. Although, Cleveland does have a relatively short porch to lefties as well. So these two “best matchups” make some sense on the Yankees side:
Emmanuel Clase is considered unavailable. And despite his recent performance, that has to be considered a good thing for the New York offense.
Plays
Gavin Williams Under 5.5 K
Over 8.5 runs scored
Reds vs. Marlins
Exciting matchup of young arms. Nick Lodolo has struggled with the strikeout this year, and he’s at just 23% if you consider last year as well. That said, he’s very tough to square up, and the Marlins lineup doesn’t do a lot of such business. We also have a very pitcher-friendly umpire. I like both pitchers’ chances of getting deep into this game.
Max Meyer has been great this year with a 20.4% K-BB% and a 57% GB%. The Reds scored 20 runs yesterday, but no matter how much you want to believe that it matters for today - it doesn’t.
The Marlins have the worst bullpen on the slate, according to my calculations:
So the Reds might have to get their runs late in this one.
I like the Marlins’ chances here, but so does DraftKings putting this one at CIN -122. I think that’s perfectly fair. You aren’t going to have any long-term success betting on game winners.
The prop model has been pretty strong at pitcher strikeout props, and in this spot it does like Nick Lodolo over 5.5 strikeouts (+114). And there no model-recommended hitter matchups popping in that algorithm.
On the DFS side of things, Max Meyer ($7,600) is pretty enticing. That’s a nice price for a guy looking very good here, and no Reds hitters really seem capable of doing a ton against his slider. I don’t want to use any hitters in this game, it feels like a pitcher’s duel.
DFS Plays
Max Meyer ($7,600)
Eric Wagaman ($3,100)
Connor Norby ($3,100)
Model Based Predictions
Under eight runs
Nick Lodolo over 5.5 K
Marlins F5 (-110)