MLB DW Slate Preview - April 22nd
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
I am trying to win this 50 cent contest this week. Imagine that, right? Trying to win money… crazy idea.
But I am going to throw in a ton of lineups using projections and an optimizer and see what happens. Should be a fun time and good content here if nothing else.
So I’ll break that down today. It’s a shorter slate (seven games) tonight starting at 7:20. That makes it pretty easy to break down. So I’m just going to do my own thing here at the top before I eventually post all the automated stuff like usual.
Pitchers
Just cause you’re playing a ton of lineups doesn’t mean you want wide exposure. If you can run a full fade of a handful of guys and they all suck, you’re really likely to have a good night because you have so many of the other scenarios covered.
Full fades: Cannon, Gomber, Quintana, Elder
Cease: Top projected ownership pitcher in Coors. This smells like someone I want very little of here if I’m gunning for first place. Cease is over-performing, is always susceptible to the bad outing, in Coors, and just a generally good pitcher to fade when other people are on him. I’m going max 10% exposure for now.
Detmers: Tough matchup and a guy that hasn’t been reliable in the past. But his numbers are elite this year. The projected ownership is about half of Cease. Tough call but I think I’m willing to take a good amount of him tonight.
Singer: He’s the top pitcher on the board at $9,200 and the projections hate him at 11.78. The ownership is projected to be really low, but that is for good reason. The price is ridiculous, he’s not nearly as good as what he’s shown and the Blue Jays are still a fine lineup. Going for a near full fade (5% max).
Lynn: The numbers look awful, but this matchup with Arizona is one of those where he probably won’t get homered out of the game in the 3rd inning. It’s not the most stacked lineup power wise (7.2% team Brl%), but they also don’t strike out much at all (17%). So it’s not a good spot for Lynn and the 20% projected ownership is something I want to be way under on. Going 5% max.
Kikuchi: Good spot for him in Kansas City, he has a huge 33% K% this year but a much lower 12.5% SwStr%. His problem has long been the long ball (not this year, but in the past), and the park here helps that. I’m on Kikuchi.
Pfaadt: I really like this buy-low. Pfaadt has had two good starts and two bad, and the SwStr% is now down to 12% with a 23-3 K-BB%. There’s some upside with him that we saw late last year, so I’ll be a bit over the field on him.
Suarez: This is a really interesting wrinkle here at the minimum price of $4,000. He made one start so far and went for a huge 18.7% SwStr% in that start with a 4:0 K:BB on 75 pitches. The strikeout stuff was there in the spring as well, and it’s really hard to not attack this mistake price. I’d guess the ownership projection is tough to nail down here but it’s sitting at 18% right now, so I’ll go at least 20% on Suarez. There are going to be a ton of Coors stacks + Suarez lineups, that just makes too much sense tonight.
Paddack: He really hasn’t shown much strikeout ability (8.6% SwStr%, 12.9% K%), but the White Sox should be able to help with that. He’s at $7,400, around 20% projected ownership. That’s actually a pretty enticing fade since people are going to chase a low-strikeout guy given the matchup… so I’ll be under on Paddack.
Winn: I like him for fantasy purposes but probably not much for DFS. I just don’t see strikeout upside on him. The $7,000 price is about right, so I’ll just take a little bit of him and be okay if I don’t end up with any.
Weathers: Nobody is going to play him here against the Braves. But I don’t hate it. Acuna isn’t quite himself, Albies isn’t in the lineup, and you have the platoon advantage over Olson/Harris here. I’ll take some Weathers for the price tag, he does have a nice 13.2% SwStr% and 118 Stuff+ this year.
Catchers
Targets: Ryan Jeffers ($4,000), Luis Campusano ($3,900), Adley Rutschman ($5,100), Salvador Perez ($4,400). Freddy Fermin ($2,800)
I guess Campusano could be an interesting fade since he’s pretty unlikely to hit a homer and he’ll be the top owned catcher in Coors. But he puts a ton of balls in play in a lineup that should score some runs tonight, so it’s still a bit of a scary fade.
First Base
Targets: Alec Burleson ($2,200), Christian Walker ($4,900), Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($4,700), Ryan Mountcastle ($4,600), Gavin Sheets ($3,200)
Not sure if Burleson will really be in the middle of the lineup like he’s projected to be, but at $2,200 he’s a steal there against Pfaadt who can give up the long ball.
Second Base
Targets: Xander Bogaerts ($5,000), Edouard Julien ($3,700), Ketel Marte ($5,500), Nolan Gorman ($4,200), Michael Massey ($2,900)
Third Base
Targets: Manny Machado ($5,500), Austin Riley ($5,800), Maikel Garcia ($4,700), Ryan McMahon 9$5,200), Eguy Rosario ($3,100), Jordan Westburg ($4,300)
Shortstop
Targets: Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,200), Manny Machado ($5,500), Ha-Seong Kim ($4,500), Bo Bichette ($4,400), Willi Castro ($2,900)
Outfield
Targets: Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000), Mike Trout ($6,300), Jackson Merrill ($4,200), Lars Nootbaar ($4,100), Jurickson Profar ($3,900), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500), Adam Duvall ($3,600), Trevor Larnach ($2,600), Nelson Velazquez ($4,200), Davis Schneider $3,800)
So I tweaked everything and ran an optimizer to get 75 lineups, and here’s a look at the top exposures:
So we’ll see how that goes. Chances are it’ll be losing venture, but maybe one of these 75 will find some magic.
Onto the normal stuff now
Slate Preview - April 22nd
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
SD (vs. Austin Gomber): 77.75 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Ryan Weathers): 75.78 Projected Points
NYY (vs. JP Sears): 73.12 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Jonathan Cannon): 69.79 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Hunter Greene): 69.29 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
TB (vs. Tarik Skubal): 58.43 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Chris Paddack): 59.39 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Carlos Rodon): 59.85 Projected Points
DET (vs. Zack Littell): 60.34 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Joe Ross): 60.62 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
SD: 77.75 Today, 66.96 Season Average
MIN: 69.79 Today, 61.96 Season Average
NYY: 73.12 Today, 65.72 Season Average
KC: 68.42 Today, 64.14 Season Average
DET: 60.34 Today, 56.23 Season Average
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Jared Jones: 18.05 Today, 15.43 Previous Max
Xander Bogaerts: 9.45 Today, 9.35 Previous Max
Orlando Arcia: 9.14 Today, 8.77 Previous Max
Trevor Larnach: 8.33 Today, 8.0 Previous Max
Luis Campusano: 8.06 Today, 7.59 Previous Max
Jose Azocar: 6.71 Today, 6.6 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Dylan Cease $8700 vs. COL: 17.97 points
Reid Detmers $8500 vs. BAL: 15.47 points
Albert Suarez $4000 vs. LAA: 14.63 points
Lance Lynn $8400 vs. ARI: 13.04 points
Chris Paddack $7400 vs. CWS: 12.86 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Albert Suarez $4000 vs. LAA: 14.63 points, 3.66 value
Dylan Cease $8700 vs. COL: 17.97 points, 2.07 value
Reid Detmers $8500 vs. BAL: 15.47 points, 1.82 value
Jose Quintana $6700 vs. SF: 11.97 points, 1.79 value
Jonathan Cannon $6000 vs. MIN: 10.54 points, 1.76 value
Catchers
1. Ryan Jeffers ($4000) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 8.76 points, 1.23 score
2. Willson Contreras ($4400) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.72 points, 1.22 score
3. Luis Campusano ($3900) vs. Austin Gomber: 8.06 points, 1.12 score
4. Adley Rutschman ($5100) vs. Reid Detmers: 8.53 points, 1.09 score
5. Travis d'Arnaud ($4200) vs. Ryan Weathers: 7.75 points, 1.07 score
First Base
1. Matt Olson ($5900) vs. Ryan Weathers: 9.88 points, 1.25 score
2. Ryan Mountcastle ($4600) vs. Reid Detmers: 8.4 points, 1.1 score
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4700) vs. Brady Singer: 8.18 points, 1.09 score
4. Paul Goldschmidt ($4500) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.79 points, 1.07 score
5. Salvador Perez ($4400) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 7.87 points, 1.06 score
Second Base
1. Edouard Julien ($3700) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 9.09 points, 1.33 score
2. Xander Bogaerts ($5000) vs. Austin Gomber: 9.45 points, 1.23 score
3. Brendan Donovan ($4000) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.22 points, 1.13 score
4. Davis Schneider ($3800) vs. Brady Singer: 7.74 points, 1.11 score
5. Nicky Lopez ($2100) vs. Chris Paddack: 6.91 points, 1.11 score
Third Base
1. Manny Machado ($5500) vs. Austin Gomber: 9.44 points, 1.23 score
2. Austin Riley ($5800) vs. Ryan Weathers: 10.07 points, 1.23 score
3. Willi Castro ($2900) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 7.47 points, 1.12 score
4. Matt Chapman ($4500) vs. Jose Quintana: 8.7 points, 1.11 score
5. Nolan Arenado ($4600) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.96 points, 1.08 score
Shortstop
1. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6200) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 10.91 points, 1.31 score
2. Manny Machado ($5500) vs. Austin Gomber: 9.44 points, 1.23 score
3. Orlando Arcia ($4000) vs. Ryan Weathers: 9.14 points, 1.21 score
4. Ha-Seong Kim ($4500) vs. Austin Gomber: 8.9 points, 1.14 score
5. Willi Castro ($2900) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 7.47 points, 1.12 score
Outfield
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6400) vs. Ryan Weathers: 12.73 points, 1.58 score
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6000) vs. Austin Gomber: 11.16 points, 1.43 score
3. Trevor Larnach ($2600) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 8.33 points, 1.31 score
4. Byron Buxton ($4400) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 9.05 points, 1.24 score
5. Marcell Ozuna ($5400) vs. Ryan Weathers: 9.42 points, 1.18 score
6. Adam Duvall ($3600) vs. Ryan Weathers: 8.16 points, 1.18 score
7. Lars Nootbaar ($4100) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.7 points, 1.16 score
8. Mike Trout ($6300) vs. Albert Suarez: 9.41 points, 1.15 score
9. Corbin Carroll ($5300) vs. Lance Lynn: 9.42 points, 1.14 score
10. Brendan Donovan ($4000) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.22 points, 1.13 score
11. Michael Harris II ($4600) vs. Ryan Weathers: 8.63 points, 1.13 score
12. Nolan Jones ($4800) vs. Dylan Cease: 8.69 points, 1.12 score
13. Davis Schneider ($3800) vs. Brady Singer: 7.74 points, 1.11 score
14. Nelson Velazquez ($4200) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 8.53 points, 1.11 score
15. Jazz Chisholm ($5200) vs. Bryce Elder: 8.86 points, 1.1 score
Game-by-Game Previews
PHI @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
PHI 4.86 - CIN 4.66
PHI 51.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 9.52
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Hunter Greene: 25 GS, 2491 Pitches, 30.9 K%, 9.5 BB%, 15.1 SwStr%, 50.2 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 37.0 GB%, 8 Brl%
Ranger Suarez: 26 GS, 2397 Pitches, 23.0 K%, 8.2 BB%, 10.7 SwStr%, 45.4 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%, 50.9 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Hunter Greene (CIN): 96 Pitches 5.71 IP, 4.5 H, 2.5 ER, 7.5 K, 2.1 BB, 19.39 FPts
Ranger Suarez (PHI): 95 Pitches 5.94 IP, 5.7 H, 2.9 ER, 6.2 K, 2.2 BB, 15.9 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Hunter Greene - 7.5 strikeouts
Ranger Suarez - 5.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.67 PA, 0.82 H, 2.02 TB, 0.35 HR, 0.02 SB, 10.12 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.53 PA, 1.06 H, 1.84 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.16 SB, 9.01 FPts
3. Alec Bohm: 4.45 PA, 1.03 H, 1.65 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.71 FPts
4. J.T. Realmuto: 4.33 PA, 0.97 H, 1.84 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.51 FPts
5. Brandon Marsh: 4.13 PA, 0.82 H, 1.42 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.47 FPts
6. Nick Castellanos: 4.12 PA, 0.87 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.93 FPts
7. Bryson Stott: 4.0 PA, 0.94 H, 1.51 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.56 FPts
8. Johan Rojas: 3.75 PA, 0.81 H, 1.13 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.56 FPts
9. Kody Clemens: 3.45 PA, 0.65 H, 1.19 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.42 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Jonathan India: 4.49 PA, 0.99 H, 1.57 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.17 FPts
2. Elly De La Cruz: 4.47 PA, 0.98 H, 1.73 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.3 SB, 9.68 FPts
3. Spencer Steer: 4.39 PA, 1.0 H, 1.62 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.64 FPts
4. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 4.23 PA, 1.0 H, 1.82 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.74 FPts
5. Jeimer Candelario: 4.13 PA, 0.9 H, 1.57 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.41 FPts
6. Stuart Fairchild: 3.69 PA, 0.79 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.14 FPts
7. Tyler Stephenson: 3.86 PA, 0.89 H, 1.51 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.76 FPts
8. Santiago Espinal: 3.5 PA, 0.86 H, 1.17 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.12 FPts
9. Bubba Thompson: 3.59 PA, 0.8 H, 1.16 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.24 SB, 6.38 FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
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