MLB DW Slate Preview - April 23
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game.
I want to get into each game again as I have done the last two days. But the slate starts at noon, so we’re going to have to fill this post out throughout the day. So, you should open this in a browser or in the Substack app to see the updates. I will be adding to it after I sent the original email. If you read my stuff often, I really do recommend the Substack app. It is by far the best experience (short of being on a PC and looking at a full browser).
STL vs. ATL
Not the most exciting start to a day full of baseball, but we could see some offensive fireworks in this guy.
There will be about a zillion balls put into play in this game. It’s a very good spot for Cardinals left-handed bats, as Elder has surrendered a .386 xwOBA to lefties in those last 32 innings with a shockingly low 13% K%.
Nolan Gorman gets himself the blast-off emoji. He’s projected for a significantly higher HR total than usual.
But there’s no value on a home run bet, as this price on DraftKings is ludicrous at +275. But you can’t dream of a better spot for an empty-power lefty like Gorman than this.
Really anything can happen against Miles Mikolas. His ERA last year was 5.35, so he’s not a good pitcher, but he does this thing where he just throws a ton of pitches in the zone and lets things happen. That will turn into bad results overall, but if he gets a bunch of balls hit at guys, it goes quite well for him. He makes you earn it, so to speak.
Will the Braves earn it? Who is to say!
Let’s do something new and silly and pick a winner in each game. I’ll take the Cardinals in this one. Nootbaar and Gorman power them with big games, and Mikolas gets some lucky BABIP and grabs himself a W.
CIN vs. MIA
It’s been a slowwww start for Sandy, and he’s one of the more interesting early-season SPs to track.
What he doesn’t have early on is the command. The 13% BB% is unheard of from him, and he’s been hit hard more often than ever before as well with that 9.6% Brl%. I can’t offer an explanation for it, and I can’t tell you what will happen next. Maybe he’ll shake off the rust, maybe he’s just not the same guy after the surgeries.
As for Singer, he’s been looking like a different guy in his first few outings with the Reds. We have not seen anything close to a 26% K% from him in the past, but it’s also not backed up at all by that 11.7% SwStr%. Singer has done this a lot in the past. He will go on these runs where he has pinpoint command and gets a bunch of called strikes and backwards-k punchies. But it always comes back to earth. And that’s going to happen again.
The Marlins even stack up decently well:
So I’m rolling with some loud contact from Matt Mervis and another Marlins W! And that would get them to 12-12 on the year, how about that!
