MLB DW Slate Preview - April 23rd
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Dylan Cease had a big game at 49% ownership last night in the 50 cent tournament I’m trying to win, I pretty much fully faded him - so needless to say, I lost last night. I had $37.50 in and only got $16.89 out. Some of my friends would call that a “Seventeen Dollar Win”, so that’s what I’m going with.
Tonight, I will attack it again. I will either do
a) better
b) worse
c) about the same
Attempt #2
Bigger slate today. All 15 games are after 6pm eastern, but we have five of these weird 6:## eastern start times, so we have a 10-game DFS slate.
Pitchers
After seeing the numbers in the Daily Notes this morning about the White Sox, I want to just make this simple and go 100% on Pablo Lopez. I think I’m going to do that, he’s at $9,300 at home against the White Sox, and he should put up a big number tonight. If he leads the slate in points, I’m cooking. The pitchers I would consider for the build:
Lopez ($9,300), King ($7,000), G-Rod ($9,600), Gilbert ($9,000), Gausman ($8,500), Webb ($8,800), Feltner ($6,400), France ($5,600)
That’s eight pitchers, probably a few too many. I wouldn’t want to put more than a few dollars on Feltner/France with the downside on those guys (and lack of upside on France’s side). The projections are liking France for that tag against the Cubs, and he’s a guy that has gone out and put up a lot of those six or seven inning starts with a good WHIP and a win, so we can’t write him off just because of the crazy low strikeout expectations.
The fades I’m looking at:
Fried ($8,000): Just doesn’t have the swing and miss stuff yet this year and the ownership is projected to be very high.
Stroman ($9,800): You wouldn’t think this high of a price on Stroman would generate much ownership, but the projected ownership is high at 15%, even against Oakland that’s a pretty fade for me.
The lowest ownerships on the guys that I want to play are France (3%), Feltner (1%), Gausman (11%), and Gilbert (5%).
Team Offense
I wonder if I should just focus more on team offenses rather than individual pieces. The optimizer lets us do that. The top projected lineups (using just the 1-5 hitters since that’s where we want most of our hitters):
The Cardinals and Yankees seem to be the ownership leverage stacks here if we’re trusting my projections.
And I took a break there to get the lineups, and the results are in. I’m heavy on Cardinals and Astros, with generally a pretty mixed group of hitter selections and then 100% Pablo Lopez action. Running 100 lineups into this thing tonight, let’s see what happens baby!
On to the normal stuff:
Slate Preview
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
HOU (vs. Jordan Wicks): 77.78 Projected Points
SD (vs. Ryan Feltner): 75.4 Projected Points
STL (vs. Tommy Henry): 74.26 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Andrew Abbott): 74.23 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Dane Dunning): 72.98 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
CWS (vs. Pablo Lopez): 51.14 Projected Points
MIA (vs. Max Fried): 53.71 Projected Points
NYM (vs. Logan Webb): 57.26 Projected Points
BOS (vs. Ben Lively): 57.63 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Marcus Stroman): 58.19 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
HOU: 77.78 Today, 66.49 Season Average
SD: 75.4 Today, 67.0 Season Average
SEA: 72.98 Today, 65.12 Season Average
PHI: 74.23 Today, 66.39 Season Average
STL: 74.26 Today, 66.75 Season Average
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Erick Fedde: 12.99 Today, 12.86 Previous Max
Gunnar Henderson: 9.97 Today, 9.86 Previous Max
Willson Contreras: 9.56 Today, 9.29 Previous Max
Jackson Chourio: 8.96 Today, 8.7 Previous Max
Rhys Hoskins: 8.87 Today, 8.61 Previous Max
Jake Cronenworth: 8.57 Today, 8.14 Previous Max
Alex Kirilloff: 8.2 Today, 8.19 Previous Max
Masyn Winn: 7.09 Today, 6.59 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Pablo Lopez $9300 vs. CWS: 19.57 points
Michael King $7000 vs. COL: 16.65 points
Grayson Rodriguez $9600 vs. LAA: 16.04 points
Logan Gilbert $9000 vs. TEX: 15.59 points
Kevin Gausman $8500 vs. KC: 15.54 points
Pitchers - Top Values
J.P. France $5600 vs. CHC: 14.99 points, 2.68 value
Michael King $7000 vs. COL: 16.65 points, 2.38 value
Pablo Lopez $9300 vs. CWS: 19.57 points, 2.1 value
Max Fried $8000 vs. MIA: 15.3 points, 1.91 value
Griffin Canning $6800 vs. BAL: 12.89 points, 1.9 value
Catchers
1. Willson Contreras ($4500) vs. Tommy Henry: 9.56 points, 1.37 score
2. Cal Raleigh ($3900) vs. Dane Dunning: 8.97 points, 1.32 score
3. Ivan Herrera ($3200) vs. Tommy Henry: 7.98 points, 1.14 score
4. Adley Rutschman ($5100) vs. Griffin Canning: 8.59 points, 1.13 score
5. Yainer Diaz ($4200) vs. Jordan Wicks: 8.48 points, 1.11 score
First Base
1. Paul Goldschmidt ($4600) vs. Tommy Henry: 9.79 points, 1.36 score
2. Jake Cronenworth ($4300) vs. Ryan Feltner: 8.57 points, 1.15 score
3. LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3400) vs. Luis Severino: 7.9 points, 1.12 score
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4700) vs. Michael Wacha: 8.45 points, 1.11 score
5. Miguel Sano ($3400) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 7.75 points, 1.08 score
Second Base
1. Edouard Julien ($3700) vs. Erick Fedde: 8.69 points, 1.28 score
2. Jose Altuve ($5500) vs. Jordan Wicks: 10.01 points, 1.25 score
3. Brendan Donovan ($4000) vs. Tommy Henry: 8.77 points, 1.23 score
4. Xander Bogaerts ($5000) vs. Ryan Feltner: 9.14 points, 1.2 score
5. Jorge Polanco ($4300) vs. Dane Dunning: 8.38 points, 1.17 score
Third Base
1. Nolan Arenado ($4700) vs. Tommy Henry: 9.24 points, 1.29 score
2. Willi Castro ($2900) vs. Erick Fedde: 7.84 points, 1.23 score
3. Christopher Morel ($4200) vs. J.P. France: 8.28 points, 1.18 score
4. Alex Bregman ($4600) vs. Jordan Wicks: 8.58 points, 1.1 score
5. Graham Pauley ($3200) vs. Ryan Feltner: 8.14 points, 1.1 score
Shortstop
1. Gunnar Henderson ($5600) vs. Griffin Canning: 9.97 points, 1.28 score
2. Willi Castro ($2900) vs. Erick Fedde: 7.84 points, 1.23 score
3. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6300) vs. Kevin Gausman: 10.13 points, 1.21 score
4. Corey Seager ($5700) vs. Logan Gilbert: 9.71 points, 1.2 score
5. Ha-Seong Kim ($4500) vs. Ryan Feltner: 8.67 points, 1.14 score
Outfield
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6000) vs. Ryan Feltner: 10.64 points, 1.4 score
2. Aaron Judge ($6100) vs. Paul Blackburn: 10.76 points, 1.38 score
3. Julio Rodriguez ($5000) vs. Dane Dunning: 10.3 points, 1.36 score
4. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6500) vs. Trevor Rogers: 11.14 points, 1.35 score
5. Yordan Alvarez ($5400) vs. Jordan Wicks: 10.87 points, 1.34 score
6. Jonatan Clase ($3000) vs. Dane Dunning: 9.01 points, 1.31 score
7. Trevor Larnach ($2800) vs. Erick Fedde: 8.24 points, 1.29 score
8. Juan Soto ($6200) vs. Paul Blackburn: 10.55 points, 1.28 score
9. Byron Buxton ($4400) vs. Erick Fedde: 8.96 points, 1.27 score
10. Kyle Tucker ($5600) vs. Jordan Wicks: 10.4 points, 1.26 score
11. Jordan Walker ($2900) vs. Tommy Henry: 7.82 points, 1.24 score
12. Brendan Donovan ($4000) vs. Tommy Henry: 8.77 points, 1.23 score
13. Mike Trout ($6400) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 10.26 points, 1.23 score
14. Anthony Santander ($4500) vs. Griffin Canning: 8.66 points, 1.18 score
15. Heston Kjerstad ($2400) vs. Griffin Canning: 7.44 points, 1.16 score
Game-by-Game Previews
BOS @ CLE
Projected Game Score:
CLE 3.6 - BOS 3.42
CLE 51.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.02
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Ben Lively: 13 GS, 1462 Pitches, 21.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 9.4 SwStr%, 44.3 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%, 38.0 GB%, 8 Brl%
Tanner Houck: 25 GS, 2114 Pitches, 22.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 13.5 SwStr%, 45.9 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%, 53.1 GB%, 6 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Ben Lively (CLE): 87 Pitches 5.7 IP, 5.4 H, 2.7 ER, 5.7 K, 1.8 BB, 14.95 FPts
Tanner Houck (BOS): 86 Pitches 5.49 IP, 6.1 H, 2.7 ER, 3.7 K, 1.5 BB, 9.99 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Ben Lively - 4.5 strikeouts
Tanner Houck - 4.5 strikeouts
BOS Hitter Projections
1. Jarren Duran: 4.26 PA, 0.97 H, 1.51 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.57 FPts
2. Rafael Devers: 4.25 PA, 1.04 H, 1.98 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.35 FPts
3. Tyler O'Neill: 4.19 PA, 0.88 H, 1.61 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.52 FPts
4. Wilyer Abreu: 3.88 PA, 0.76 H, 1.35 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.51 FPts
5. Connor Wong: 3.84 PA, 0.77 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.54 FPts
6. Masataka Yoshida: 3.86 PA, 0.99 H, 1.52 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.39 FPts
7. Bobby Dalbec: 3.39 PA, 0.57 H, 1.04 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 4.95 FPts
8. Enmanuel Valdez: 3.32 PA, 0.71 H, 1.27 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.58 FPts
9. Ceddanne Rafaela: 3.38 PA, 0.66 H, 1.04 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.22 FPts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.41 PA, 1.14 H, 1.46 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.17 FPts
2. Andres Gimenez: 4.28 PA, 1.06 H, 1.61 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.58 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.21 PA, 1.08 H, 1.75 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.99 FPts
4. Josh Naylor: 4.12 PA, 1.12 H, 1.86 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.92 FPts
5. Will Brennan: 3.87 PA, 1.05 H, 1.47 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.53 FPts
6. Tyler Freeman: 3.69 PA, 0.87 H, 1.29 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.12 FPts
7. Bo Naylor: 3.73 PA, 0.69 H, 1.17 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.9 FPts
8. Estevan Florial: 3.56 PA, 0.7 H, 1.24 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.13 FPts
9. Brayan Rocchio: 3.46 PA, 0.76 H, 1.06 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.07 FPts
Best Bets
Tanner Houck BOS - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (-115) - 0.156 value
Ben Lively CLE - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-125) - 0.115 value
Enmanuel Valdez BOS - Hitter Hits Under 0.5 (+155) - 0.1 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIL @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
MIL 4.72 - PIT 3.88
MIL 54.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.6
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Bryse Wilson: 1 GS, 1355 Pitches, 19.8 K%, 6.6 BB%, 9.0 SwStr%, 46.1 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 37.6 GB%, 7 Brl%
Bailey Falter: 18 GS, 1585 Pitches, 16.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 9.1 SwStr%, 45.6 Strike%, 33.6 Ball%, 39.0 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Bryse Wilson (MIL): 84 Pitches 5.17 IP, 5.2 H, 2.6 ER, 4.9 K, 1.8 BB, 12.81 FPts
Bailey Falter (PIT): 77 Pitches 4.88 IP, 5.1 H, 2.5 ER, 3.9 K, 1.4 BB, 10.43 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Bryse Wilson - Prop Not Found
Bailey Falter - 3.5 strikeouts
MIL Hitter Projections
1. Jackson Chourio: 4.52 PA, 1.11 H, 1.83 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.96 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.41 PA, 1.2 H, 2.06 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 9.4 FPts
3. Willy Adames: 4.27 PA, 0.96 H, 1.75 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.16 FPts
4. Rhys Hoskins: 4.22 PA, 0.97 H, 1.82 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.87 FPts
5. Gary Sanchez: 4.03 PA, 0.9 H, 1.76 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.74 FPts
6. Blake Perkins: 3.83 PA, 0.74 H, 1.11 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.66 FPts
7. Owen Miller: 3.76 PA, 0.89 H, 1.25 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.05 FPts
8. Joey Wiemer: 3.58 PA, 0.76 H, 1.28 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.34 FPts
9. Joey Ortiz: 3.11 PA, 0.8 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.67 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Andrew McCutchen: 4.33 PA, 0.9 H, 1.45 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.29 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.21 PA, 1.08 H, 1.85 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.33 FPts
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.14 PA, 1.02 H, 1.52 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.79 FPts
4. Rowdy Tellez: 3.89 PA, 0.86 H, 1.51 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.69 FPts
5. Jack Suwinski: 3.85 PA, 0.77 H, 1.52 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.48 FPts
6. Michael A. Taylor: 3.58 PA, 0.77 H, 1.27 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.77 FPts
7. Oneil Cruz: 3.71 PA, 0.8 H, 1.42 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.53 FPts
8. Henry Davis: 3.62 PA, 0.76 H, 1.2 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.84 FPts
9. Jared Triolo: 3.38 PA, 0.79 H, 1.13 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.72 FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
PHI @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
PHI 5.46 - CIN 4.51
PHI 54.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 9.97
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Cristopher Sanchez: 22 GS, 1820 Pitches, 24.8 K%, 4.9 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 48.5 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%, 58.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Andrew Abbott: 25 GS, 2289 Pitches, 24.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 11.2 SwStr%, 47.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 30.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 87 Pitches 5.61 IP, 5.8 H, 2.9 ER, 6.4 K, 1.4 BB, 15.86 FPts
Andrew Abbott (CIN): 90 Pitches 5.24 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 5.0 K, 1.8 BB, 13.16 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Cristopher Sanchez - 5.5 strikeouts
Andrew Abbott - 5.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.67 PA, 0.85 H, 1.97 TB, 0.32 HR, 0.02 SB, 10.1 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.53 PA, 1.14 H, 2.03 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.16 SB, 9.98 FPts
3. Alec Bohm: 4.45 PA, 1.1 H, 1.83 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.65 FPts
4. J.T. Realmuto: 4.33 PA, 1.03 H, 2.0 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.47 FPts
5. Nick Castellanos: 4.23 PA, 0.99 H, 1.77 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.14 FPts
6. Bryson Stott: 4.12 PA, 0.93 H, 1.43 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.58 FPts
7. Whit Merrifield: 3.94 PA, 0.87 H, 1.3 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.74 FPts
8. Edmundo Sosa: 3.65 PA, 0.86 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.86 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.53 PA, 0.82 H, 1.19 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.71 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Stuart Fairchild: 4.19 PA, 0.9 H, 1.56 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.94 FPts
2. Spencer Steer: 4.51 PA, 1.05 H, 1.74 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.68 FPts
3. Tyler Stephenson: 4.32 PA, 1.02 H, 1.73 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.73 FPts
4. Jeimer Candelario: 4.26 PA, 0.95 H, 1.67 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.55 FPts
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 4.14 PA, 1.0 H, 1.85 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.73 FPts
6. Elly De La Cruz: 4.07 PA, 0.91 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.25 SB, 8.46 FPts
7. Santiago Espinal: 3.65 PA, 0.92 H, 1.27 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.25 FPts
8. Luke Maile: 3.56 PA, 0.79 H, 1.39 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.33 FPts
9. Bubba Thompson: 3.61 PA, 0.8 H, 1.16 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.24 SB, 6.28 FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
LAD @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
LAD 5.24 - WSH 3.9
LAD 57.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.0
Projected Total: 9.14
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
James Paxton: 21 GS, 1968 Pitches, 23.2 K%, 9.8 BB%, 13.2 SwStr%, 47.5 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%, 43.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Patrick Corbin: 36 GS, 3265 Pitches, 15.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 9.8 SwStr%, 40.9 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%, 45.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
James Paxton (LAD): 94 Pitches 5.73 IP, 5.4 H, 2.6 ER, 5.0 K, 2.0 BB, 14.59 FPts
Patrick Corbin (WSH): 90 Pitches 5.53 IP, 7.0 H, 3.4 ER, 3.6 K, 1.8 BB, 8.2 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
James Paxton - 5.5 strikeouts
Patrick Corbin - 3.5 strikeouts
LAD Hitter Projections
1. Mookie Betts: 4.24 PA, 1.14 H, 2.2 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.09 SB, 10.39 FPts
2. Shohei Ohtani: 4.21 PA, 1.13 H, 2.26 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.11 SB, 10.39 FPts
3. Freddie Freeman: 4.09 PA, 1.13 H, 1.86 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.72 FPts
4. Will Smith: 4.06 PA, 0.99 H, 1.63 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.83 FPts
5. Teoscar Hernandez: 3.96 PA, 1.1 H, 2.1 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.88 FPts
6. Enrique Hernandez: 3.7 PA, 0.84 H, 1.36 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.14 FPts
7. Andy Pages: 3.76 PA, 0.89 H, 1.63 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.51 FPts
8. Miguel Rojas: 3.41 PA, 0.86 H, 1.23 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.64 FPts
9. Chris Taylor: 3.27 PA, 0.67 H, 1.2 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.0 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. Jacob Young: 4.56 PA, 1.05 H, 1.37 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.29 SB, 8.05 FPts
2. C.J. Abrams: 4.5 PA, 1.05 H, 1.65 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.25 SB, 8.2 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.44 PA, 1.09 H, 1.66 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.14 FPts
4. Jesse Winker: 4.06 PA, 0.78 H, 1.19 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.51 FPts
5. Lane Thomas: 4.2 PA, 1.01 H, 1.76 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.21 FPts
6. Joey Gallo: 3.83 PA, 0.52 H, 1.16 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.78 FPts
7. Ildemaro Vargas: 4.0 PA, 1.0 H, 1.44 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.29 FPts
8. Riley Adams: 3.8 PA, 0.8 H, 1.46 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.13 FPts
9. Nick Senzel: 3.47 PA, 0.77 H, 1.12 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.14 FPts
Best Bets
Freddie Freeman LAD - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+145) - 0.146 value
Chris Taylor LAD - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-170) - 0.135 value
James Paxton LAD - Pitcher Hits Over 4.5 (+105) - 0.132 value
Andy Pages LAD - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-250) - 0.127 value
Jacob Young WSH - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+160) - 0.112 value
Joey Gallo WSH - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+135) - 0.109 value
Ildemaro Vargas WSH - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-155) - 0.104 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
DET @ TB
Projected Game Score:
DET 4.1 - TB 3.96
DET 50.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.06
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Ryan Pepiot: 7 GS, 1019 Pitches, 26.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 15.3 SwStr%, 49.6 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 36.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Kenta Maeda: 24 GS, 2008 Pitches, 25.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 46.8 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 34.4 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Ryan Pepiot (TB): 87 Pitches 5.15 IP, 4.2 H, 2.2 ER, 5.9 K, 1.7 BB, 15.66 FPts
Kenta Maeda (DET): 86 Pitches 5.26 IP, 4.9 H, 2.4 ER, 4.6 K, 1.9 BB, 12.38 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Ryan Pepiot - 6.5 strikeouts
Kenta Maeda - 4.5 strikeouts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Riley Greene: 4.69 PA, 1.03 H, 1.76 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.19 FPts
2. Mark Canha: 4.54 PA, 0.95 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.52 FPts
3. Kerry Carpenter: 4.32 PA, 1.03 H, 1.85 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.93 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.4 PA, 0.87 H, 1.58 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.29 FPts
5. Matt Vierling: 4.21 PA, 0.9 H, 1.34 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.17 FPts
6. Colt Keith: 4.19 PA, 0.84 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.67 FPts
7. Parker Meadows: 3.94 PA, 0.7 H, 1.24 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.97 FPts
8. Javier Baez: 3.86 PA, 0.79 H, 1.28 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.81 FPts
9. Carson Kelly: 3.49 PA, 0.68 H, 1.08 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.88 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.44 PA, 1.09 H, 1.7 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.93 FPts
2. Randy Arozarena: 4.43 PA, 0.95 H, 1.64 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.3 FPts
3. Richie Palacios: 4.16 PA, 0.97 H, 1.5 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.36 FPts
4. Isaac Paredes: 4.17 PA, 0.85 H, 1.53 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.22 FPts
5. Harold Ramirez: 4.06 PA, 1.0 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.36 FPts
6. Amed Rosario: 3.96 PA, 0.99 H, 1.45 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.71 FPts
7. Curtis Mead: 3.8 PA, 0.84 H, 1.27 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.75 FPts
8. Jose Caballero: 3.66 PA, 0.76 H, 1.13 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.64 FPts
9. Ben Rortvedt: 3.24 PA, 0.57 H, 0.93 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.62 FPts
Best Bets
Ryan Pepiot TB - Strikeouts Under 6.5 (-110) - 0.103 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
OAK @ NYY
Projected Game Score:
NYY 5.16 - OAK 3.6
NYY 58.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.76
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Marcus Stroman: 28 GS, 2596 Pitches, 20.7 K%, 9.2 BB%, 10.1 SwStr%, 43.6 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%, 57.9 GB%, 5 Brl%
Paul Blackburn: 24 GS, 2236 Pitches, 21.8 K%, 8.9 BB%, 11.0 SwStr%, 44.6 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%, 44.0 GB%, 5 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Marcus Stroman (NYY): 91 Pitches 5.4 IP, 4.4 H, 2.3 ER, 5.6 K, 2.3 BB, 15.22 FPts
Paul Blackburn (OAK): 89 Pitches 5.25 IP, 4.9 H, 2.7 ER, 4.9 K, 2.6 BB, 12.08 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Marcus Stroman - 5.5 strikeouts
Paul Blackburn - 4.5 strikeouts
OAK Hitter Projections
1. Abraham Toro: 4.14 PA, 0.89 H, 1.49 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.65 FPts
2. JJ Bleday: 4.04 PA, 0.7 H, 1.16 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.51 FPts
3. Seth Brown: 3.9 PA, 0.83 H, 1.58 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.11 FPts
4. Brent Rooker: 3.9 PA, 0.76 H, 1.47 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.9 FPts
5. Ryan Noda: 3.81 PA, 0.67 H, 1.21 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.93 FPts
6. Zack Gelof: 3.84 PA, 0.85 H, 1.49 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.3 FPts
7. Shea Langeliers: 3.71 PA, 0.71 H, 1.35 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.75 FPts
8. Lawrence Butler: 3.37 PA, 0.75 H, 1.33 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.62 FPts
9. Nick Allen: 3.28 PA, 0.68 H, 0.84 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.1 SB, 4.42 FPts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Anthony Volpe: 4.41 PA, 0.95 H, 1.63 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.74 FPts
2. Juan Soto: 4.27 PA, 0.97 H, 1.85 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.08 SB, 10.55 FPts
3. Aaron Judge: 4.22 PA, 0.98 H, 2.17 TB, 0.34 HR, 0.04 SB, 10.76 FPts
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 4.08 PA, 0.82 H, 1.7 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.96 FPts
5. Anthony Rizzo: 4.0 PA, 0.85 H, 1.47 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.1 FPts
6. Gleyber Torres: 3.91 PA, 0.92 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.35 FPts
7. Alex Verdugo: 3.71 PA, 0.93 H, 1.43 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.64 FPts
8. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.66 PA, 0.76 H, 1.13 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.01 FPts
9. Austin Wells: 3.42 PA, 0.85 H, 1.53 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.88 FPts
Best Bets
Austin Wells NYY - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+150) - 0.143 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6100: 10.76 Proj, 1.38 Score
Juan Soto (NYY) OF $6200: 10.55 Proj, 1.28 Score
Anthony Volpe (NYY) SS $4800: 8.74 Proj, 1.11 Score
Lawrence Butler (OAK) OF $2100: 6.62 Proj, 1.08 Score
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) OF $4500: 7.96 Proj, 1.08 Score
MIA @ ATL
Projected Game Score:
ATL 4.56 - MIA 3.06
ATL 59.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.62
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Max Fried: 18 GS, 1564 Pitches, 23.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 12.1 SwStr%, 45.2 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%, 59.5 GB%, 4 Brl%
Trevor Rogers: 8 GS, 690 Pitches, 22.7 K%, 8.1 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 47.0 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 52.6 GB%, 5 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Max Fried (ATL): 94 Pitches 5.65 IP, 5.6 H, 2.4 ER, 5.4 K, 1.3 BB, 15.3 FPts
Trevor Rogers (MIA): 86 Pitches 5.13 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 4.7 K, 1.8 BB, 11.49 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Max Fried - 4.5 strikeouts
Trevor Rogers - 4.5 strikeouts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.33 PA, 1.21 H, 1.53 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.38 FPts
2. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.27 PA, 1.01 H, 1.65 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.82 FPts
3. Josh Bell: 4.19 PA, 0.93 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.8 FPts
4. Tim Anderson: 4.02 PA, 1.02 H, 1.35 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.07 FPts
5. Jazz Chisholm: 3.85 PA, 0.79 H, 1.29 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.31 FPts
6. Avisail Garcia: 3.7 PA, 0.82 H, 1.36 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.55 FPts
7. Emmanuel Rivera: 3.59 PA, 0.85 H, 1.29 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.48 FPts
8. Otto Lopez: 3.68 PA, 0.84 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.54 FPts
9. Jhonny Pereda: 3.46 PA, 0.73 H, 1.05 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.76 FPts
ATL Hitter Projections
1. Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.5 PA, 1.17 H, 2.0 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.32 SB, 11.14 FPts
2. Orlando Arcia: 4.42 PA, 1.05 H, 1.71 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.02 FPts
3. Austin Riley: 4.33 PA, 1.04 H, 1.92 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.64 FPts
4. Matt Olson: 4.21 PA, 0.89 H, 1.71 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.44 FPts
5. Marcell Ozuna: 4.09 PA, 0.95 H, 1.79 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.15 FPts
6. Travis d'Arnaud: 4.0 PA, 0.92 H, 1.62 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.02 FPts
7. Adam Duvall: 3.8 PA, 0.75 H, 1.49 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.64 FPts
8. Michael Harris II: 3.75 PA, 1.0 H, 1.57 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.37 FPts
9. David Fletcher: 3.22 PA, nan H, nan TB, nan HR, nan SB, nan FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) OF $6500: 11.14 Proj, 1.35 Score
Matt Olson (ATL) 1B $5900: 8.44 Proj, 1.04 Score
Austin Riley (ATL) 3B $5800: 8.64 Proj, 1.04 Score
Orlando Arcia (ATL) SS $4000: 8.02 Proj, 1.03 Score
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) OF $5400: 8.15 Proj, 1.01 Score
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