MLB DW Slate Preview - April 25
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game.
Alright, boys, let’s do this. I have three entries reserved in the DraftKings MLB $8K Home Plate tournament tonight, so let’s get into these main slate games in detail.
If you want to some DFS for $5 against me and other MLB DW readers, click here and join our league!
From a high level, it’s going to be a very, very chalky night at SP.
But man, how do you fade those spots? Those are two of the top ten or so arms in the league in two of the best three or four matchups in the game. Maybe we can’t quite spend $20,700 on two SPs if we’re going for first place, but I don’t know.
We’ll be looking for other viable options, but they’re going to have to be pretty enticing to pull us off those two studs.
I will go through all of the games. It won’t be solely focused on DFS, so you’ll still get some interesting stuff out of it if you’re not a DFS bro.
Mets vs. Nationals
My guy Carlos Carrasco is looking OLD! And he does not have much left these days. Just a 19.4% K% with a .335 xwOBA allowed since last year. The one thing he does decently well is get ground balls. It’s a 45% GB% since last year (and higher at 48% to lefties), but he still has given up a high 1.72 HR/9 in these last 27 starts.
We can’t play either of these SPs. Jose Berrios ($6,900) can be interesting at that price, but not in this spot in NYY. The home run ball is his main issue, and there aren’t many worse spots for that kind of issue than in Yankees Stadium right now.
Blue Jays Bats
Carrasco is a great matchup. But we should note that the Yankees bullpen is pretty good behind him, and the Blue Jays are not a high-upside offense. I don’t think I’m in love with the idea of a full Toronto stack. And we don’t have any “best matchups” qualifying on the Blue Jays side of things:
They’re also annoyingly expensive:
I’m not sure everything is adding up here for us to use Blue Jays bats heavily. Maybe Anthony Santander ($4,000) is in play. His price has been falling throughout the year, as he’s off to a bad start (.569 OPS, .269 xwOBA). But it’s a good matchup for a Santander bomb.
A Yankees stack against Berrios is something to consider.
Berrios has given up a .343 xwOBA to lefties and a .333 mark to righties. The K% are both poor, and the Yankees have upside that few other offenses have.
Props
Both pitchers have their “over” hitting on the walks prop:
Those recommendations (10% or greater on an “over”) are +10% ROI this year (25 bets).
DFS Plays
There are no fantastic, lock-button type plays here. But I will consider a Yankees stack against Berrios for one of my three lineups. Aaron Judge ($6,500) and Ben Rice ($4,600) are both in the top four of the raw projections tonight.
Red Sox vs. Guardians
We have rain in Cleveland, so this might be an easy one to ignore. Here’s Roth:
Even if things were clear, I don’t think we’d be considering either pitcher. And the rain takes them completely off the board. There are some spots against Ben Lively, as usual:
Lively is much worse against lefties (.335 xwOBA since last year), so I wouldn’t hate Jarren Duran ($5,000) or Wilyer Abreu ($4,800). But neither are fantastic plays at those prices, and the weather probably just washes away our interest in this game, even if it plays.
Astros vs. Royals
We should get an update on how Hayden Wesneski ($8,200) is holding up. He did not have the greatest start last time out against the Padres. But prior to that he had 21 strikeouts in three outings, and the season K% is high at 27.8% right now on a 13.5% SwStr%. That price is tough, but this matchup is a good one. The Royals have hit .221/.284/.320 this year with just a dozen homers, so I think the floor is decent for Wesneski. I’ll put him on the list - he could be one of those lower-owned guys to consider if we aren’t loading up fully on Yamamoto and Gilbert.
Matchups
Neither pitcher is one to target, and both bullpens are solid. So I don’t think this is a great place to go for bats.
Here are the matchups:
Maybe we shouldn’t be targeting Wesneski after seeing that right side. The Royals have done very well against the kind of stuff that Wesneski offers. They do have a lot of strong contact hitters, if nothing else.
I still don’t want to play those bats, but yeah, maybe I push Wesneski down the priority list at SP.
Props
Nonezo!
