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MLB DW Slate Preview - April 27th

MLB DW Slate Preview - April 27th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
Apr 27, 2024
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MLB Data Warehouse
MLB Data Warehouse
MLB DW Slate Preview - April 27th
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Important note - my system projects these two Mexico City games as if they’re being played in Coors Field. This park in Mexico City is much more advantageous to hitters than Coors Field - which is wild. It’s as if they put Great American Ballpark in Denver, and then raised the altitude another 2,000 feet. So I’m under-projecting everything there, which is going to be hard to believe when you see the numbers. The Astros in Coors against Cal Quantrill would be a dream scenario, but it’s even dreamier. Start any Astros bat you can - and I’d put your Rockies bats in there too.


Slate Preview

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

HOU (vs. Cal Quantrill): 82.9 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Tanner Bibee): 75.79 Projected Points
NYY (vs. Joe Ross): 71.86 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Yusei Kikuchi): 71.08 Projected Points
CLE (vs. Charlie Morton): 68.79 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

CWS (vs. Aaron Civale): 54.24 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Cole Irvin): 54.4 Projected Points
DET (vs. Brady Singer): 57.46 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Edward Cabrera): 58.39 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Jordan Hicks): 59.36 Projected Points

Team Projections vs. Season Averages

HOU: 82.9 Today, 66.65 Season Average
NYY: 71.86 Today, 65.91 Season Average
CLE: 68.79 Today, 63.29 Season Average
KC: 68.76 Today, 64.2 Season Average
ATL: 75.79 Today, 72.09 Season Average

Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Brady Singer: 16.79 Today, 16.37 Previous Max
Slade Cecconi: 14.35 Today, 12.46 Previous Max
Yordan Alvarez: 12.03 Today, 11.63 Previous Max

DFS Top Plays by Position

Pitchers - Raw Projections

Dylan Cease $9700 vs. PHI: 16.83 points
Jose Soriano $7000 vs. MIN: 16.76 points
Chris Paddack $6900 vs. LAA: 16.22 points
Carlos Rodon $7400 vs. MIL: 16.1 points
George Kirby $8200 vs. ARI: 15.37 points

Pitchers - Top Values

Jose Soriano $7000 vs. MIN: 16.76 points, 2.39 value
Chris Paddack $6900 vs. LAA: 16.22 points, 2.35 value
Joe Ross $6200 vs. NYY: 14.19 points, 2.29 value
Jonathan Cannon $5500 vs. TB: 12.32 points, 2.24 value
Carlos Rodon $7400 vs. MIL: 16.1 points, 2.18 value

Catchers

1. Cal Raleigh ($4100) vs. Slade Cecconi: 9.14 points, 1.37 score
2. William Contreras ($5400) vs. Carlos Rodon: 9.34 points, 1.19 score
3. Gary Sanchez ($3000) vs. Carlos Rodon: 7.36 points, 1.18 score
4. Ryan Jeffers ($4000) vs. Jose Soriano: 7.35 points, 1.05 score
5. J.T. Realmuto ($5000) vs. Dylan Cease: 7.77 points, 1.04 score

First Base

1. Matt Olson ($5900) vs. Tanner Bibee: 9.51 points, 1.17 score
2. Bryce Harper ($6000) vs. Dylan Cease: 9.34 points, 1.16 score
3. Rhys Hoskins ($4500) vs. Carlos Rodon: 8.61 points, 1.16 score
4. Josh Naylor ($5200) vs. Charlie Morton: 9.16 points, 1.14 score
5. Brandon Drury ($3600) vs. Chris Paddack: 7.15 points, 1.06 score

Second Base

1. Jorge Polanco ($4400) vs. Slade Cecconi: 8.23 points, 1.19 score
2. Edouard Julien ($3900) vs. Jose Soriano: 8.01 points, 1.18 score
3. Ozzie Albies ($4800) vs. Tanner Bibee: 8.87 points, 1.13 score
4. Brandon Drury ($3600) vs. Chris Paddack: 7.15 points, 1.06 score
5. Xander Bogaerts ($4500) vs. Ranger Suarez: 8.03 points, 1.05 score

Third Base

1. Jose Ramirez ($5900) vs. Charlie Morton: 9.37 points, 1.2 score
2. Matt Chapman ($4600) vs. Martin Perez: 8.5 points, 1.14 score
3. Josh Rojas ($3100) vs. Slade Cecconi: 7.14 points, 1.13 score
4. Isaac Paredes ($4700) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 7.52 points, 1.06 score
5. Austin Riley ($5800) vs. Tanner Bibee: 8.63 points, 1.05 score

Shortstop

1. Anthony Volpe ($4800) vs. Joe Ross: 8.71 points, 1.14 score
2. Willi Castro ($2900) vs. Jose Soriano: 7.09 points, 1.11 score
3. Willy Adames ($4500) vs. Carlos Rodon: 8.26 points, 1.1 score
4. Manny Machado ($5200) vs. Ranger Suarez: 7.64 points, 1.03 score
5. Trea Turner ($6200) vs. Dylan Cease: 8.4 points, 1.02 score

Outfield

1. Aaron Judge ($6100) vs. Joe Ross: 11.01 points, 1.45 score
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6600) vs. Tanner Bibee: 11.31 points, 1.37 score
3. Juan Soto ($6300) vs. Joe Ross: 10.58 points, 1.31 score
4. Julio Rodriguez ($5300) vs. Slade Cecconi: 9.71 points, 1.3 score
5. Mike Trout ($6500) vs. Chris Paddack: 10.29 points, 1.24 score
6. Byron Buxton ($4200) vs. Jose Soriano: 8.37 points, 1.23 score
7. Josh Lowe ($4400) vs. Jonathan Cannon: 8.63 points, 1.18 score
8. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5800) vs. Ranger Suarez: 9.15 points, 1.17 score
9. Kyle Schwarber ($5600) vs. Dylan Cease: 9.11 points, 1.17 score
10. Michael Harris II ($4900) vs. Tanner Bibee: 9.03 points, 1.14 score
11. Austin Slater ($3000) vs. Martin Perez: 7.52 points, 1.12 score
12. Jorge Soler ($4800) vs. Martin Perez: 8.67 points, 1.11 score
13. Trevor Larnach ($3300) vs. Jose Soriano: 7.4 points, 1.11 score
14. Bryan Reynolds ($4700) vs. Jordan Hicks: 8.18 points, 1.11 score
15. Joc Pederson ($4100) vs. George Kirby: 8.34 points, 1.1 score


Game-By-Game Previews


LAD @ TOR

Projected Game Score:

LAD 5.14 - TOR 3.74
LAD 57.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.88

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Tyler Glasnow: 26 GS, 2435 Pitches, 32.8 K%, 7.3 BB%, 16.7 SwStr%, 50.3 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 49.5 GB%, 11 Brl%
Yusei Kikuchi: 37 GS, 3268 Pitches, 26.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 13.5 SwStr%, 48.0 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 90 Pitches 5.81 IP, 5.1 H, 2.6 ER, 6.7 K, 1.9 BB, 18.02 FPts
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 87 Pitches 5.11 IP, 5.4 H, 2.7 ER, 4.9 K, 1.9 BB, 11.95 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Tyler Glasnow - 7.5 strikeouts
Yusei Kikuchi - 5.5 strikeouts

LAD Hitter Projections

1. Mookie Betts: 4.52 PA, 1.14 H, 2.19 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.09 SB, 10.4 FPts
2. Shohei Ohtani: 4.48 PA, 1.1 H, 2.25 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.11 SB, 10.52 FPts
3. Freddie Freeman: 4.35 PA, 1.11 H, 1.87 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 9.06 FPts
4. Will Smith: 4.33 PA, 0.98 H, 1.62 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.96 FPts
5. Teoscar Hernandez: 4.2 PA, 1.0 H, 1.88 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.14 FPts
6. Enrique Hernandez: 3.94 PA, 0.82 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.1 FPts
7. Andy Pages: 4.0 PA, 0.87 H, 1.61 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.51 FPts
8. Miguel Rojas: 3.63 PA, 0.88 H, 1.29 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.94 FPts
9. Chris Taylor: 3.49 PA, 0.58 H, 1.03 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.45 FPts

TOR Hitter Projections

1. Bo Bichette: 4.46 PA, 1.11 H, 1.83 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.61 FPts
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.37 PA, 1.05 H, 1.87 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.95 FPts
3. Daulton Varsho: 4.19 PA, 0.82 H, 1.51 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.31 FPts
4. Justin Turner: 4.1 PA, 0.9 H, 1.43 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.5 FPts
5. Danny Jansen: 3.98 PA, 0.85 H, 1.72 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.17 FPts
6. Davis Schneider: 3.97 PA, 0.73 H, 1.58 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.13 FPts
7. Cavan Biggio: 3.66 PA, 0.66 H, 1.09 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.44 FPts
8. Ernie Clement: 3.42 PA, 0.78 H, 1.14 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.04 FPts
9. Addison Barger: 3.52 PA, 0.67 H, 1.09 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.31 FPts

Best Bets

Andy Pages LAD - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-130) - 0.163 value
Yusei Kikuchi TOR - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (+110) - 0.159 value
Chris Taylor LAD - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+115) - 0.151 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

OAK @ BAL

Projected Game Score:

BAL 4.52 - OAK 3.18
BAL 58.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 7.7

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Cole Irvin: 16 GS, 1607 Pitches, 18.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 9.7 SwStr%, 47.6 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%, 43.3 GB%, 11 Brl%
JP Sears: 37 GS, 3302 Pitches, 21.0 K%, 7.3 BB%, 12.4 SwStr%, 47.8 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%, 30.5 GB%, 10 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Cole Irvin (BAL): 88 Pitches 5.91 IP, 5.8 H, 2.8 ER, 5.0 K, 1.4 BB, 13.76 FPts
JP Sears (OAK): 88 Pitches 5.36 IP, 5.6 H, 2.8 ER, 4.8 K, 1.6 BB, 11.95 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Cole Irvin - 4.5 strikeouts
JP Sears - 4.5 strikeouts

OAK Hitter Projections

1. Esteury Ruiz: 4.18 PA, 1.05 H, 1.54 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.34 SB, 8.17 FPts
2. Tyler Nevin: 3.78 PA, 0.84 H, 1.23 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.69 FPts
3. Shea Langeliers: 4.04 PA, 0.84 H, 1.6 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.53 FPts
4. Brent Rooker: 3.83 PA, 0.88 H, 1.75 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.5 FPts
5. Abraham Toro: 3.67 PA, 0.78 H, 1.25 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.39 FPts
6. JJ Bleday: 3.6 PA, 0.66 H, 1.06 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.05 FPts
7. Max Schuemann: 3.66 PA, 0.81 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.34 FPts
8. Nick Allen: 3.42 PA, 0.74 H, 0.94 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.1 SB, 4.63 FPts
9. Darell Hernaiz: 3.33 PA, 0.77 H, 1.17 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.1 FPts

BAL Hitter Projections

1. Gunnar Henderson: 4.4 PA, 0.98 H, 1.74 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.26 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.34 PA, 1.08 H, 1.78 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.45 FPts
3. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.18 PA, 1.07 H, 1.96 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.55 FPts
4. Anthony Santander: 4.16 PA, 0.96 H, 1.81 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.26 FPts
5. Jordan Westburg: 3.89 PA, 1.0 H, 1.72 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.87 FPts
6. Cedric Mullins II: 3.92 PA, 0.84 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.75 FPts
7. James McCann: 3.6 PA, 0.9 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.31 FPts
8. Colton Cowser: 3.55 PA, 0.73 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.21 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.22 PA, 0.7 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.18 SB, 5.89 FPts

Best Bets

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 1B $4700: 8.55 Proj, 1.17 Score
Anthony Santander (BAL) OF $4600: 8.26 Proj, 1.13 Score
Adley Rutschman (BAL) C $5200: 8.45 Proj, 1.12 Score
Esteury Ruiz (OAK) OF $4300: 8.17 Proj, 1.08 Score
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) SS $6000: 8.26 Proj, 1.08 Score

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