MLB DW Slate Preview - April 29th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Jon’s DFS Thoughts
Pitchers
There are two clear plays at the top of the board
Joe Ryan ($10,400) vs. White Sox
Max Fried ($8,700) vs. Seattle
The White Sox are hitting .207/.274/.313 with a 24.6% K%, and the Marines are the most strikeout-heavy team in the league at 28.3% as a team, and they also have a well below-average OPS of .654. I wouldn’t feel great about lock-buttoning either of these guys though. Fried has had a few bad starts early on and isn’t a reliable strikeout pitcher, and Ryan gives up so many fly balls that his day can get ruined by multiple homers on any given day.
I really don’t see any other great options for cash games, that’s clearly the duo to go to, but the ownership is certain to be incredibly high. You could go to Nick Lodolo ($9,800) in San Diego, or you could punt it off with one of those risky SPs in the Oakland game (Joe Boyle $6,200 or Bailey Falter $6,400). Personally I’ll lock in Ryan and Fried and just bet on them leading the slate.
Some not-yet-mentioned GPP options I’d consider:
Ryan Pepiot ($9,100) vs. Milwaukee
Cristopher Sanchez ($8,400) vs. Angels
Bryce Miller ($8,900) vs. Braves
Garrett Crochet ($8,600) vs. Twins
Luis Severino ($8,200) vs. Cubs
Team Stacks
Primary
Dodgers vs. Tommy Henry
Braves vs. Bryce Miller
Diamondbacks vs. James Paxton
Phillies vs. Griffin Canning
Secondary (values)
Twins vs. Garrett Crochet
Athletics vs. Bailey Falter
Pirates vs. Joe Boyle
Nationals vs. Trevor Rogers
Blue Jays vs. [bullpen game]
Hitters - Punts
Zach Neto $2,600 vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Andy Pages $3,200 vs. Tommy Henry
Chris Taylor $2,200 vs. Tomy Henry
Will Benson $4,100 vs. Matt Waldron
Mike Tauchman $3,400 vs. Luis Severino
Tyler Nevin $2,400 vs. Bailey Falter
Pete Crow-Armstrong $2,500 vs. Luis Severino
Enrique Hernandez $2,800 vs. Tommy Henry
D.J. Stewart $2,800 vs. Jameson Taillon
Kyle Farmer $2,100 vs. Garrett Crochet
Manuel Margot $2,900 vs. Garrett Crochet
Slate Preview - April 29th
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
LAD (vs. Tommy Henry): 81.74 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Bryce Miller): 76.23 Projected Points
NYY (vs. Grayson Rodriguez): 73.22 Projected Points
ARI (vs. James Paxton): 71.81 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Griffin Canning): 71.18 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
CWS (vs. Joe Ryan): 48.22 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Max Fried): 56.09 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Bailey Falter): 56.55 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Trevor Rogers): 57.7 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Joe Boyle): 58.17 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
LAD: 81.74 Today, 67.73 Season Average
ARI: 71.81 Today, 63.88 Season Average
NYY: 73.22 Today, 65.93 Season Average
CIN: 70.82 Today, 64.68 Season Average
PHI: 71.18 Today, 66.46 Season Average
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Joe Ryan $10400 vs. CWS: 19.45 points
Max Fried $8700 vs. SEA: 17.91 points
Ryan Pepiot $9100 vs. MIL: 16.05 points
Cristopher Sanchez $8400 vs. LAA: 15.89 points
Joe Boyle $6200 vs. PIT: 15.43 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Joe Boyle $6200 vs. PIT: 15.43 points, 2.49 value
Griffin Canning $6300 vs. PHI: 14.43 points, 2.29 value
Max Fried $8700 vs. SEA: 17.91 points, 2.06 value
Bailey Falter $6500 vs. OAK: 12.84 points, 1.98 value
Cristopher Sanchez $8400 vs. LAA: 15.89 points, 1.89 value
Catchers
1. Will Smith ($4800) vs. Tommy Henry: 9.2 points, 1.28 score
2. Gabriel Moreno ($3700) vs. James Paxton: 8.38 points, 1.24 score
3. Ryan Jeffers ($4200) vs. Garrett Crochet: 8.37 points, 1.17 score
4. William Contreras ($5400) vs. Ryan Pepiot: 9.13 points, 1.16 score
5. J.T. Realmuto ($5000) vs. Griffin Canning: 8.14 points, 1.11 score
First Base
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6500) vs. Tommy Henry: 11.88 points, 1.47 score
2. Freddie Freeman ($5600) vs. Tommy Henry: 10.32 points, 1.33 score
3. Matt Olson ($5900) vs. Bryce Miller: 9.76 points, 1.2 score
4. Christian Walker ($5000) vs. James Paxton: 9.22 points, 1.19 score
5. Bryce Harper ($6000) vs. Griffin Canning: 9.66 points, 1.19 score
Second Base
1. Mookie Betts ($6600) vs. Tommy Henry: 11.75 points, 1.5 score
2. Ketel Marte ($5600) vs. James Paxton: 9.41 points, 1.18 score
3. Enrique Hernandez ($2800) vs. Tommy Henry: 6.84 points, 1.14 score
4. Brandon Drury ($3600) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 7.34 points, 1.07 score
5. Ozzie Albies ($5300) vs. Bryce Miller: 8.61 points, 1.07 score
Third Base
1. Maikel Garcia ($4400) vs. Yariel Rodriguez: 8.5 points, 1.15 score
2. Austin Riley ($5800) vs. Bryce Miller: 8.96 points, 1.13 score
3. Eugenio Suarez ($4100) vs. James Paxton: 7.59 points, 1.11 score
4. Manny Machado ($4900) vs. Nick Lodolo: 7.79 points, 1.1 score
5. Christopher Morel ($4200) vs. Luis Severino: 7.68 points, 1.09 score
Shortstop
1. Mookie Betts ($6600) vs. Tommy Henry: 11.75 points, 1.5 score
2. Elly De La Cruz ($5900) vs. Matt Waldron: 9.98 points, 1.29 score
3. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6100) vs. Yariel Rodriguez: 9.99 points, 1.24 score
4. Zach Neto ($2600) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 7.78 points, 1.2 score
5. Francisco Lindor ($5000) vs. Jameson Taillon: 8.76 points, 1.15 score
Outfield
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6500) vs. Tommy Henry: 11.88 points, 1.47 score
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6400) vs. Bryce Miller: 11.49 points, 1.44 score
3. Teoscar Hernandez ($4900) vs. Tommy Henry: 9.77 points, 1.35 score
4. Will Benson ($4100) vs. Matt Waldron: 9.33 points, 1.3 score
5. Kyle Schwarber ($5500) vs. Griffin Canning: 9.79 points, 1.29 score
6. Chris Taylor ($2200) vs. Tommy Henry: 6.92 points, 1.26 score
7. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5300) vs. Nick Lodolo: 9.23 points, 1.23 score
8. Byron Buxton ($4300) vs. Garrett Crochet: 8.4 points, 1.2 score
9. Andy Pages ($3200) vs. Tommy Henry: 8.4 points, 1.18 score
10. Mike Trout ($6300) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 9.52 points, 1.17 score
11. Jake Fraley ($4300) vs. Matt Waldron: 8.6 points, 1.17 score
12. Mike Tauchman ($3400) vs. Luis Severino: 8.02 points, 1.16 score
13. Sal Frelick ($3600) vs. Ryan Pepiot: 8.35 points, 1.14 score
14. Enrique Hernandez ($2800) vs. Tommy Henry: 6.84 points, 1.14 score
15. George Springer ($4300) vs. Jonathan Bowlan: 8.15 points, 1.12 score
Game-by-Game Previews
NYY @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
NYY 5.48 - BAL 4.32
NYY 56.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 9.8
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Grayson Rodriguez: 28 GS, 2548 Pitches, 25.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 13.6 SwStr%, 49.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%, 44.4 GB%, 8 Brl%
Clarke Schmidt: 37 GS, 3157 Pitches, 22.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 10.9 SwStr%, 47.5 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 43.4 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 88 Pitches 5.48 IP, 5.2 H, 3.0 ER, 5.5 K, 2.6 BB, 13.35 FPts
Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 84 Pitches 4.9 IP, 5.0 H, 2.5 ER, 4.6 K, 1.5 BB, 11.83 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Grayson Rodriguez - 5.5 strikeouts
Clarke Schmidt - 4.5 strikeouts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Anthony Volpe: 4.58 PA, 0.98 H, 1.66 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.9 FPts
2. Juan Soto: 4.44 PA, 1.02 H, 1.95 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.08 SB, 10.65 FPts
3. Aaron Judge: 4.38 PA, 0.98 H, 2.19 TB, 0.33 HR, 0.04 SB, 10.76 FPts
4. Anthony Rizzo: 4.28 PA, 0.92 H, 1.59 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.78 FPts
5. Giancarlo Stanton: 4.13 PA, 0.79 H, 1.65 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.58 FPts
6. Oswaldo Cabrera: 4.05 PA, 0.83 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.26 FPts
7. Gleyber Torres: 3.95 PA, 0.93 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.25 FPts
8. Austin Wells: 3.73 PA, 0.91 H, 1.64 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.65 FPts
9. Trent Grisham: 3.5 PA, 0.62 H, 1.13 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.39 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Gunnar Henderson: 4.48 PA, 1.08 H, 1.98 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.01 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.41 PA, 1.06 H, 1.71 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.96 FPts
3. Ryan O'Hearn: 4.08 PA, 1.03 H, 1.63 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.98 FPts
4. Anthony Santander: 4.23 PA, 0.95 H, 1.76 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.79 FPts
5. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.06 PA, 0.96 H, 1.67 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.25 FPts
6. Cedric Mullins II: 3.98 PA, 0.89 H, 1.41 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.1 FPts
7. Jordan Westburg: 3.75 PA, 0.92 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.79 FPts
8. Colton Cowser: 3.62 PA, 0.75 H, 1.21 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.23 FPts
9. Ramon Urias: 3.48 PA, 0.77 H, 1.17 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.1 FPts
Best Bets
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
STL @ DET
Projected Game Score:
STL 4.46 - DET 3.7
STL 54.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.16
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Steven Matz: 21 GS, 2294 Pitches, 20.4 K%, 7.3 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 47.6 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 43.4 GB%, 5 Brl%
Kenta Maeda: 25 GS, 2096 Pitches, 25.4 K%, 6.6 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 47.0 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%, 35.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Steven Matz (STL): 91 Pitches 5.48 IP, 5.2 H, 2.4 ER, 5.2 K, 1.6 BB, 14.49 FPts
Kenta Maeda (DET): 86 Pitches 5.06 IP, 4.6 H, 2.4 ER, 4.4 K, 2.2 BB, 11.91 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Steven Matz - 4.5 strikeouts
Kenta Maeda - 3.5 strikeouts
STL Hitter Projections
1. Brendan Donovan: 4.49 PA, 1.09 H, 1.6 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.03 FPts
2. Willson Contreras: 4.36 PA, 0.95 H, 1.73 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.37 FPts
3. Lars Nootbaar: 4.24 PA, 0.88 H, 1.51 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.38 FPts
4. Nolan Arenado: 4.16 PA, 1.0 H, 1.7 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.49 FPts
5. Paul Goldschmidt: 4.05 PA, 0.85 H, 1.49 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.53 FPts
6. Alec Burleson: 3.72 PA, 0.91 H, 1.47 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.54 FPts
7. Nolan Gorman: 3.85 PA, 0.8 H, 1.57 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.48 FPts
8. Masyn Winn: 3.73 PA, 0.76 H, 1.03 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.69 FPts
9. Mike Siani: 3.54 PA, 0.68 H, 1.03 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.84 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Matt Vierling: 4.41 PA, 1.1 H, 1.6 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.87 FPts
2. Mark Canha: 4.34 PA, 0.97 H, 1.52 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.14 FPts
3. Riley Greene: 4.27 PA, 1.0 H, 1.53 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.02 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.2 PA, 0.94 H, 1.65 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.19 FPts
5. Buddy Kennedy: 4.1 PA, 0.88 H, 1.32 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.54 FPts
6. Javier Baez: 3.92 PA, 0.91 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.41 FPts
7. Jake Rogers: 3.74 PA, 0.8 H, 1.45 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.13 FPts
8. Wenceel Perez: 3.75 PA, 0.82 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.11 FPts
9. Carson Kelly: 3.33 PA, 0.74 H, 1.21 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.26 FPts
Best Bets
Steven Matz STL - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+100) - 0.102 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
WSH @ MIA
Projected Game Score:
MIA 3.62 - WSH 3.4
MIA 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 7.02
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Jake Irvin: 29 GS, 2570 Pitches, 19.0 K%, 9.3 BB%, 8.3 SwStr%, 44.9 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%, 42.5 GB%, 9 Brl%
Trevor Rogers: 9 GS, 774 Pitches, 21.7 K%, 7.6 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 46.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 52.6 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Jake Irvin (WSH): 88 Pitches 5.39 IP, 5.5 H, 2.5 ER, 4.8 K, 1.6 BB, 12.87 FPts
Trevor Rogers (MIA): 89 Pitches 5.55 IP, 5.9 H, 2.5 ER, 4.1 K, 1.3 BB, 11.93 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jake Irvin - 4.5 strikeouts
Trevor Rogers - 4.5 strikeouts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.39 PA, 1.05 H, 1.67 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.23 SB, 7.91 FPts
2. Nick Senzel: 4.12 PA, 0.91 H, 1.32 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.04 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.23 PA, 1.06 H, 1.57 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.65 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.12 PA, 1.03 H, 1.51 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.45 FPts
5. Ildemaro Vargas: 4.02 PA, 1.03 H, 1.47 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.49 FPts
6. Trey Lipscomb: 3.92 PA, 0.95 H, 1.55 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.54 FPts
7. Alex Call: 3.7 PA, 0.73 H, 1.1 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.76 FPts
8. Riley Adams: 3.62 PA, 0.74 H, 1.3 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.5 FPts
9. Jacob Young: 3.38 PA, 0.89 H, 1.17 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.36 FPts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.46 PA, 1.31 H, 1.8 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.48 FPts
2. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.39 PA, 1.08 H, 1.85 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.58 FPts
3. Jazz Chisholm: 4.17 PA, 0.96 H, 1.84 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.75 FPts
4. Josh Bell: 4.22 PA, 0.95 H, 1.65 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.42 FPts
5. Jesus Sanchez: 3.91 PA, 0.89 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.25 FPts
6. Tim Anderson: 3.93 PA, 0.96 H, 1.3 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.85 FPts
7. Nick Gordon: 3.58 PA, 0.89 H, 1.43 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.19 FPts
8. Vidal Brujan: 3.56 PA, 0.63 H, 0.92 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.13 SB, 4.88 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.46 PA, 0.71 H, 1.05 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.74 FPts
Best Bets
Vidal Brujan MIA - Hitter Hits Under 0.5 (+135) - 0.107 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
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