MLB DW Slate Preview - April 8th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
My favorite MLB slate is when all of the games are at night. I get to get all of my stuff done in the morning and afternoon, and then there’s no temptation to check scores and whatnot from 4-7 when I’m with my family, and then we just get a glorious three hours of a ton of action. I’m excited to watch THE LIVE GAME TRACKER track it all. If you haven’t seen that, give it a look (on tablet or PC is best) after the games get rolling. It’s a really cool tool, and I find myself checking it constantly when games are rolling.
The first kind of MLB writing I did for money was DFS write-ups. That was back in 2018 or 2019, and then things kind of took off from there and I ended up here where all of my wildest dreams have come true. I still have a soft spot for DFS, it’s so much fun to research and analyze and whatnot, so I want to finally do a full DFS preview today. I’m going to do it right at the top here, free for everybody. So if you don’t play DFS and just want to get to the game by game previews, you can skip ahead.
Full DFS Preview
There is just one minor weather concern, and that’s in Minnesota (Dodgers vs. Twins). Kevin Roth has it at yellow, so it shouldn’t be a concern.
What I am going to do tonight is roll with one lineup in three contests. Our league contest, of course (click here to join the league!), a $25 double up, and one of these “Hundo” contests. These Hundo’s are great because they are just 10% rake.
That’s a pretty big difference, the main GPPs are typically 16% from what I can see right now.
Pitchers
Since I’m going one lineup and not trying to ship a big tourney, I’m going to skip to cash plays. So I’m not going to Zac Gallen ($8,200) in Coors, even though he projects just fine there. There are plenty of ways to play a GPP, and most of the time a low-owned (aka not the best projected plays) wins it, but I’m not focusing on that here. I’m just going to find the best plays and see if we can hit the cash line.
There really isn’t a standout play here. I would say the top cash play is looking like Zach Eflin ($9,000) against the Angels (on the road). He projects for 16.9 points, the second-most to Gallen. Eflin doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he does feel very safe here with his elite walk rate and the good matchup.
Yu Darvish ($8,400) is considerable as well at home against the Cubs. He’s looked good this year, projects for 91 pitches, and the Cubs are definitely a beatable matchup. That price tag is nice, but it’s hard to say Darvish is super safe these days.
I’m not going to write up anybody else, but from the research I just did, I think Eflin + Darvish is the cash play. So that’s what I’m going to start with.
Team Offenses
We should always take a look at the team spots first and then look at individuals. It’s easy tonight with the Diamondbacks in Coors against Kyle Freeland. They lead the slate with 6.7 implied runs from the DraftKings Sportsbook line. They project for 81 fantasy points in my model, and the 1-5 stack is the top dog on the “Stacks” tab of the hitter projections file:
That’s a really tough top five for a left-handed pitcher to deal with in Coors. So I think it’s pretty clear that we need a lot of that D’Backs lineup tonight.
Let’s look at the normal automation now and we’ll add some stuff along the way:
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ARI (vs. Kyle Freeland): 81.13 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Andrew Heaney): 79.85 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Julio Teheran): 79.34 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Bailey Ober): 76.78 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Graham Ashcraft): 76.25 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
CWS (vs. Triston McKenzie): 54.13 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Zach Eflin): 56.82 Projected Points
MIA (vs. Nestor Cortes): 57.35 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Blake Snell): 57.97 Projected Points
DET (vs. Mitch Keller): 61.05 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
ARI: 81.13 Today, 63.46 Season Average
HOU: 79.85 Today, 66.2 Season Average
MIL: 76.25 Today, 63.44 Season Average
LAD: 76.78 Today, 67.11 Season Average
MIN: 70.7 Today, 62.01 Season Average
Two of these Diamondbacks are on the max projection list, meaning their projection today is higher than anything we’ve seen this year or last. I think Walker & Suarez are going into my lineup.
The Astros also stand out here against Heaney. The model really likes righties against Heaney, and that’s been profitable over time. But Heaney is also a talented arm who has some days where he goes out and really shuts you down, so I would view an Astros stack as more of a tournament option than a lineup to go to for reliability.
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Jose Altuve: 10.41 Today, 10.22 Previous Max
Chas McCormick: 9.29 Today, 9.16 Previous Max
Christian Walker: 10.53 Today, 10.45 Previous Max
Eugenio Suarez: 9.18 Today, 9.06 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Zac Gallen $8200 vs. COL: 17.24 points
Zach Eflin $9000 vs. LAA: 16.95 points
Blake Snell $10300 vs. WSH: 16.23 points
Yu Darvish $8400 vs. CHC: 16.02 points
Framber Valdez $8000 vs. TEX: 15.66 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Miles Mikolas $5300 vs. PHI: 11.83 points, 2.23 value
Zac Gallen $8200 vs. COL: 17.24 points, 2.1 value
Trevor Williams $5800 vs. SF: 11.52 points, 1.99 value
Framber Valdez $8000 vs. TEX: 15.66 points, 1.96 value
Yu Darvish $8400 vs. CHC: 16.02 points, 1.91 value
DFS is all about price, and this $5,300 on Mikolas is just too low. He has averaged 11 fantasy points since 2023, which is just fine at $5,300, and clearly there’s 20+ upside there if things go well for him (he went above 20 points seven times last year). But I think we can make Eflin + Darvish work tonight, so we won’t have to go there. But Mikolas + D’Backs + Astros is a nice GPP idea.
Jeffers and Diaz are the top projected dudes here, but it might be a good night to save some money at catcher. Catchers are kind of expensive this year, the cheapest one I feel decent about is Francisco Alvarez at $3,500 against Charlie Morton.
Catchers
1. Ryan Jeffers ($4000) vs. James Paxton: 8.93 points, 1.28 score
2. Yainer Diaz ($4200) vs. Andrew Heaney: 9.12 points, 1.26 score
3. Willson Contreras ($4000) vs. Spencer Turnbull: 8.12 points, 1.15 score
4. Francisco Alvarez ($3500) vs. Charlie Morton: 7.67 points, 1.11 score
5. J.T. Realmuto ($4500) vs. Miles Mikolas: 8.22 points, 1.1 score
No shortage of targets at first base. The Dodgers are up against Ober, who as we saw last time can definitely give up the long ball. I think Ober could have a good outing here too, so I’m not in love with the Dodgers as much as I would be in other spots, but Ohtani and Freeman are fine options. But Walker is the guy tonight.
First Base
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6300) vs. Bailey Ober: 11.36 points, 1.34 score
2. Christian Walker ($5200) vs. Kyle Freeland: 10.53 points, 1.32 score
3. Matt Olson ($6000) vs. Julio Teheran: 10.13 points, 1.25 score
4. Freddie Freeman ($6100) vs. Bailey Ober: 10.01 points, 1.2 score
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3300) vs. Trevor Williams: 7.92 points, 1.14 score
The price on Ketel Marte is restrictive at second base. $5,500 might be a bit too much. But with Altuve just $300 cheaper and us plugging in Walker and Suarez, it makes sense to just pay the tag for Marte and get fully invested in this Arizona spot. Nolan Gorman at $4,000 is considerable as well.
Second Base
1. Jose Altuve ($5200) vs. Andrew Heaney: 10.41 points, 1.35 score
2. Mookie Betts ($6500) vs. Bailey Ober: 10.69 points, 1.27 score
3. Ketel Marte ($5500) vs. Kyle Freeland: 10.2 points, 1.24 score
4. Nolan Gorman ($4000) vs. Spencer Turnbull: 8.67 points, 1.21 score
5. Ozzie Albies ($5300) vs. Julio Teheran: 9.06 points, 1.14 score
It’s pretty rough at third base, so it’s easy enough to take the $4,300 on Suarez. If anybody can put up a goose egg in Coors, it would be this guy, but he certainly has homer upside here and he’s the second-highest raw projection on the slate.
Third Base
1. Eugenio Suarez ($4300) vs. Kyle Freeland: 9.18 points, 1.24 score
2. Matt Chapman ($3900) vs. Trevor Williams: 8.41 points, 1.18 score
3. Austin Riley ($5400) vs. Julio Teheran: 9.29 points, 1.17 score
4. Kyle Farmer ($2800) vs. James Paxton: 7.42 points, 1.15 score
5. Alex Bregman ($4700) vs. Andrew Heaney: 8.77 points, 1.14 score
Betts has played like this year’s Acuna so far this year, but I think $6,500 is too much in this particular spot (although he does project more than two points above the rest of the field, which is a ridiculous advantage). We could get another D’Back in the lineup with Blaze Alexander at $3,700. It’s not certain he’ll be in the lineup, but he’s got a homer and a steal already this season in limited time, so he’s showing that he can score some fantasy points. That’s probably my preference right now, it’ll help to save a bit of cash.
Shortstop
1. Mookie Betts ($6500) vs. Bailey Ober: 10.69 points, 1.27 score
2. Carlos Correa ($4400) vs. James Paxton: 8.49 points, 1.15 score
3. Francisco Lindor ($5200) vs. Charlie Morton: 8.85 points, 1.13 score
4. Manny Machado ($4900) vs. Javier Assad: 8.18 points, 1.1 score
5. Ha-Seong Kim ($4200) vs. Javier Assad: 7.91 points, 1.04 score
I really need a punt option. One or two of those usually come up later on when the lineups start coming out, so there are often some late changes to the lineup I’m playing. But for now, there are three super cheap outfielders we could use to save some money:
Austin Martin (MIN): $2,000
Victor Scott II (STL): $2,600
Jacob Young (WSH): $2,200
Martin has started just one game since getting called up, but for some reason he’s in the projection lineup tonight. A $2,000 price tag is usually a mistake, it’s just the result of the DraftKings pricing algorithm not having the player in the player pool - and most players are worth more than $2,000. So I’m always looking for a minimum-priced guy.
If you are like me, you have played Victor Scott II a bunch of times and have gotten nothing from him, but the projection remains solid given the price. He’s up against Spencer Turnbull and company tonight, so there should be some balls put in play here, and if the guy gets on first base he’s got like a 50/50 chance of getting five points with a steal. So I’ll be looking to play Martin or him.
The model really likes Michael Harris II and Chas McCormick for the price as well. They’re both under $4,500. I’m hesitant to play Lourdes Gurriel at that price, I know he’s got a few homers already but he’s really not a great power hitter and he won’t steal any bases, so I’d rather leave him off the lineup.
Outfield
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6400) vs. Julio Teheran: 11.83 points, 1.48 score
2. Yordan Alvarez ($5600) vs. Andrew Heaney: 10.98 points, 1.37 score
3. Shohei Ohtani ($6300) vs. Bailey Ober: 11.36 points, 1.34 score
4. Byron Buxton ($4800) vs. James Paxton: 9.74 points, 1.33 score
5. Corbin Carroll ($5700) vs. Kyle Freeland: 10.48 points, 1.32 score
6. Kyle Tucker ($5500) vs. Andrew Heaney: 10.2 points, 1.28 score
7. Austin Martin ($2000) vs. James Paxton: 7.72 points, 1.28 score
8. Michael Harris II ($4400) vs. Julio Teheran: 9.42 points, 1.27 score
9. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5500) vs. Javier Assad: 9.67 points, 1.26 score
10. Chas McCormick ($4000) vs. Andrew Heaney: 9.29 points, 1.26 score
11. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($5300) vs. Kyle Freeland: 9.68 points, 1.19 score
12. Marcell Ozuna ($4600) vs. Julio Teheran: 9.04 points, 1.19 score
13. Kyle Schwarber ($5200) vs. Miles Mikolas: 9.23 points, 1.16 score
14. Randal Grichuk ($4000) vs. Kyle Freeland: 8.41 points, 1.15 score
15. LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3300) vs. Trevor Williams: 7.92 points, 1.14 score
Gotta love it when things come together, and the lineup came together perfectly at the $50,000 budget:
So that’s what I’m locking in for now, but I will be checking lineups and watching the projections as we get closer to game time.
That was fun, here’s hoping we can avoid losing any money tonight!
Prop Betting Update
I have this prop bet tracker running, and so far it shows that we’re up eight units. What I don’t want to do is hype up the prop bets. I’m not 100% sure the tracker is working exactly as it should, and I really don’t want to be the guy telling people they can win money sports betting. So again, please don’t take this very seriously. I don’t really bet myself, it’s just a fun thing to track and put out.
The best prop so far has been the hitter strikeouts:
But it’s much too early to make any declarations. The pitcher walks were really good last year, but have not been so far this year. Anyways, the player prop comparison sheet is the resource for you if you’re a betting dude. Link at the bottom of the page below the paywall.
On to the game-by-game previews…
Game-by-Game Previews
CWS @ CLE
Projected Game Score:
CLE 4.0 - CWS 3.14
CLE 56.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.14
2023-2024 Pitcher Stats
Triston McKenzie: 5 GS, 378 Pitches, 20.0 K%, 16.7 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 43.9 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%, 35.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Tanner Banks: 3 GS, 1047 Pitches, 20.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 11.7 SwStr%, 45.3 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%, 36.7 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Triston McKenzie (CLE): 90 Pitches 5.84 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 4.5 K, 2.9 BB, 12.84 FPts
Tanner Banks (CWS): 21 Pitches 1.36 IP, 1.6 H, 0.6 ER, 0.7 K, 0.3 BB, 2.43 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Triston McKenzie - 5.5 strikeouts
Tanner Banks - Prop Not Found
CWS Hitter Projections
1. Robbie Grossman: 4.1 PA, 0.69 H, 1.12 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.37 FPts
2. Yoan Moncada: 4.07 PA, 0.88 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.56 FPts
3. Gavin Sheets: 3.82 PA, 0.76 H, 1.29 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.16 FPts
4. Andrew Vaughn: 3.96 PA, 0.89 H, 1.49 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.34 FPts
5. Andrew Benintendi: 3.83 PA, 0.87 H, 1.19 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.01 FPts
6. Dominic Fletcher: 3.6 PA, 0.79 H, 1.36 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.99 FPts
7. Braden Shewmake: 3.67 PA, 0.79 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.19 SB, 6.64 FPts
8. Nicky Lopez: 3.39 PA, 0.73 H, 0.97 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.22 FPts
9. Korey Lee: 3.21 PA, 0.63 H, 1.05 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 4.84 FPts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.45 PA, 1.1 H, 1.41 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.25 FPts
2. Andres Gimenez: 4.32 PA, 1.07 H, 1.69 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.1 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.24 PA, 1.11 H, 1.9 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.75 FPts
4. Josh Naylor: 4.15 PA, 1.1 H, 1.87 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.16 FPts
5. Tyler Freeman: 3.82 PA, 0.92 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.84 FPts
6. Will Brennan: 3.83 PA, 1.05 H, 1.47 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.58 FPts
7. Ramon Laureano: 3.71 PA, 0.8 H, 1.41 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.68 FPts
8. Bo Naylor: 3.63 PA, 0.7 H, 1.22 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.03 FPts
9. Brayan Rocchio: 3.48 PA, 0.72 H, 1.14 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.34 FPts
Best Bets
Triston McKenzie CLE - Walks Over 1.5 (-150) - 0.192 value
Andrew Vaughn CWS - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+190) - 0.147 value
Triston McKenzie CLE - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-125) - 0.147 value
Triston McKenzie CLE - Pitcher Hits Over 4.5 (+125) - 0.121 value
Steven Kwan CLE - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-125) - 0.108 value
Gavin Sheets CWS - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+150) - 0.107 value
Andres Gimenez CLE - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+150) - 0.107 value
Tyler Freeman CLE - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+105) - 0.107 value
Nicky Lopez CWS - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-125) - 0.101 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
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