MLB DW Slate Preview - July 10
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Matchups Model Team Ranks
Spot #1: Halo Homers
Your best spot of the night belongs to the Los Angeles Angels. They take on Patrick Corbin. While Corbin has largely avoided major damage this year (4.18 ERA, only one start with more than 4 ER), he’s still been very bad with an 11.6% K-BB% and just a 43.6% Strike%. He is not throwing quality pitches.
The Angels find themselves in better spots against left-handed pitching. They’ll load up their lineup with righties tonight, and the six guys with the most game-breaking ability in the lineup are all right-handed (Neto, Trout, Ward, Adell, Soler, O’Hoppe).
Here’s what it looks like in the matchups models:
They also top the fantasy points projection list in the normal projection model.
They still aren’t likely to base hit a guy to death, and they do their share of striking out even against soft lefties. But you do have to respect the power in this Angels lineups, especially against a southpaw.
The play I’m picking out is for the Angels to have a good day with the power production. You can bet on their total bases, or you can take this line on DraftKings:
→ Angels Over 1.5 Home Runs +100
Spot #2: A Taj Ma-Haul of Points
Do you get the joke there? The Red Sox since June 1st:
→ vs. LHP: .871 OPS, 20 HR (24.7 PA/HR)
→ vs. RHP: .771 OPS, 28 HR (28 PA/HR)
They’ve been fine against righties, a .770 OPS is nothing to sneeze at. But you can see the disparity there. And it makes sense, it’s something you would expect when looking at how the roster is built.
And the advanced matchups model cuts right to the heart of it, we’re seeing the Red Sox profile extremely poorly against what Bradley offers Tehy rank #19 of 20 on the slate with a horrible .237 batting average.
So it’s a very nice spot for Bradley. There are all kinds of whiffs in this Boston lineup (Story at 24%, Abreu at 33%, Mayer at 31%, Duran at 24% against RHP since June 1st), and they aren’t a huge home run threat in these spots.
Bradley is coming off three straight outings allowing an xwOBA under .300. He’s been a lot better lately and has a solid 11:2 K:BB in his last three.
I’m not betting on Bradley to pile up K’s here, I just think he’ll have a nice day in the hits and ER columns, and I think the Rays can grab a win here as a -106 favorite against the blowup-prone Walker Buehler.
Plays
→ Bradley Under 5.5 Hits Allowed -120
→ Rays to Win
Braves and A’s in Sunscramento
This was an awful title, but let’s go. Check out the weather forecast for tonight in Sacramento:
We expect the run totals to really blow up in these summer games in Sacramento.
The good news for the Braves is that they have Spencer Strider on the mound. But hot temperatures and small parks don’t fit him very well as a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls. I would not be surprised to see the A’s park a couple of homers off of Strider tonight and lead him to another not-so-great outing.