MLB DW Slate Preview - July 11
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
What is going on tonight? Let’s dive into some game and spots that stand out to me.
Spot #1: Rays New Tandem
It’s day #2 of Drew Rasmussen giving Joe Boyle a piggyback ride. We saw that happen last Sunday. Here are the pitch counts and some quick data from that day.
We saw Rasmussen throw 32 pitches in two innings. He had given up three hits and a run in those innings. I don’t think this is necessarily some “two innings and done” situation. I don’t know why they wouldn’t let him go three innings if he’s cruising through there. Let him see the lineup once and then Boyle take it from there.
For his part, Joe Boyle was great. He fired a 51% Strike% overall and the same 51% mark on the four-seamer. It was a 38% Ball% overall. That’s a touch high, but it’s a massive improvement for Boyle. We know he’s going to strike guys out. His stuff is so good, and if he has truly learned to command it, he’s in for a great run of innings in the Majors over this second half. But I am a long way from calling the guy safe.
DraftKings seems to think this is a two-inning appearance from Rasmussen. And maybe they’re right, but I’m perfectly fine with recommending 3+ strikeouts for Rasmussen once you see the +135 price on it. The Red Sox are beatable with righties, and Rasmussen has mostly been great this year. I think it’s a really nasty duo of Rasmussen + Boyle, so I’d expect the Red Sox to have another pretty quiet night with the bats.
→ Plays: Rays Moneyline -103
Spot #2: Ketel MaRHBte
The titles are intentionally stupid. The D’Backs face off with a lefty tonight in Tyler Anderson. That means we want to fire up Ketel Marte in the appropriate spots. Over the last two years against lefties:
.318/.368/.621, 15% K%, 14% Brl%, .430 xwOBA
He’s just so, so good against lefties.
→ Play: Ketel Marte 2+ Total Bases -130
Spot #3: The Flex of Giancarlo
It took a while, but Stanton’s 2025 season has begun.