MLB DW Slate Preview - July 23rd
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Jon’s DFS Preview
I did it in video/screen-sharing format today, so check that out for my full DFS thoughts.
The quick summary is that I don’t like any of the cheaper pitchers, so I’m going with two studs. Sale is a lock, and the the second slot will be either Gilbert or Crochet, depending on how the price fits once we get the lineups out.
The Yankees and Dodgers are in great spots, so I want to get to both Judge and Ohtani. That means we need some punts. Luckily, there are a few minimum-priced hitters to like; we just need to hope they make their respective lineups.
There’s also another resource out there for anybody who wants it. It’s called “Todays Hitter vs. Pitch Matchups”. Check it out here.
The best way I can explain it is with an example. So let’s take Aaron Judge.
He faces Jose Quintana tonight. Quintana throws sinkers, four-seamers, and changeups, and he’s left-handed. So we look back to 2023 to see when Judge has faced left-handed sinkers, four-seamers, and changeups. Then we look up his ISO, xwOBA, and xwOBACON against those pitches. And those are the numbers you’ll see there. So Quintana throws a sinker 26% of the time, and Judge has a .412 ISO against left-handed sinkers dating back to last year on 38 balls in play.
You can filter it by team or sort. Use it however you want. I’m personally skeptical on using such small sample sizes. I only made it because a paid subscriber requested it. It will run automatically every morning, so you’ll be able to get the numbers by 9am eastern. It will not be updated during the day, I only run it once.
This post is entirely behind the paywall, but check out a sample here of what you get with this post and become a paid subscriber to get these moving forward.