New look, and maybe even a little bit of a different feel for this one. Let’s be a bit more general today and isolate some interesting spots to watch tonight.
My projection model is not good at telling you how many runs a team will score. But it’s still useful to see how it projects each time in line with the rest of the teams on the slate.
And the first thing I noticed today is that the Marlins are projecting for the most runs on the freaking slate. That was striking to see.
July 7th Team Projected Runs
Marlins 6.34
Red Sox 6.30
Dodgers 6.18
Reds 5.77
Rangers 5.71
Let’s dig into this a bit. Brady Singer has a 4.08 JA ERA this year. He has just a 20.7% K% with a 9.8% BB%. What he’s done well is limit homers; he’s given up just ten in his 16 starts this year. Seven of those ten homers have come at home. We have a league-wide 14.8% HR/FB this year. That number is 17.3% in Great American Ballpark, the seventh-highest in the league. And if you play enough games, eventually, Great American Ballpark will end up on top here.
So we have Singer as a bad pitcher in a tough ballpark to pitch in. The other side of this projection is that the Marlins’ lineup just isn’t all that bad right now. Their team xwOBA since June 1st is .334, which is the sixth-highest in the league over that time.
The Marlins players’ xwOBAs since June 15th:
→ Xavier Edwards .314
→ Jesus Sanchez .395
→ Otto Lopez .381
→ Agustin Ramirez .357
→ Kyle Stowers .434
→ Eric Wagaman .258
→ Liam Hicks .391
→ Connor Norby .338
→ Dane Myers .310
Not bad at all!
The Marlins’ bats to target would be the guys who can best take advantage of the small ballpark. We know they project to strike out less tonight against Brady Singer than their average situation, so that helps. Here are your highest fly ball rates for Marlins bats in the lineup tonight.
→ Stowers 31%
→ Hicks 30%
→ Norby 28%
→ Myers 28%
I think you’ve got a good chance of seeing the fish swim over the fence a couple of times tonight.
Plays
The matchups model looks at each pitchers pitch movement and then finds the most similar pitchers to that mix of pitches, and then it sees how each hitter performs against that larger set of pitches. And then we can stack teams up against each other in that way. And today, the Royals are the #1 offense on the board tonight in this spot against Pirates lefty Andrew Heaney.
Heaney had a good beginning to the year. He was particularly good in April, posting a 17.6% K-BB% and a 3.21 JA ERA across 119 batters faced that month. However, it’s all come crashing down. Since May began:
11 GS, 16.3% K%, 8.9% BB%, 4.60 JA ERA, .359 xwOBA, .486 SLG
That’s a K% which is six points below the league average, a walk rate higher than the league average, and some loud contact allowed. The trifecta!
The Royals line up against Heaney’s mix of left-handed four-seamers, sliders, changeups, and sinkers like this:
Heaney has not been any better against lefties this year. He has a 4.01 JA ERA against lefties and a 4.23 mark against righties. There is nobody in particular to avoid on the Royals’ side.
I have been eyeballing Jonathan India lately. It hasn’t been a successful year for him in his first go-around with the Royals. But over the last month, he has a pretty great .286 xBA and a .366 xwOBA. He’s +0.035 above expectation in these 113 PAs. Impressive stuff. He’s an extremely patient hitter with a 40% Swing%. He loves taking a walk, and Heaney is no stranger to giving those up.
So I like him tonight, and I like the rest of the lineup behind him as a unit tonight.
Plays
→ Jonathan India 1+ Run -110
→ Bobby Witt Jr. 3+ Hits+Runs+RBI +100
The White Sox Opening Day starter was pitching more like Sean BBBBBBBBBBurke until the last five weeks or so.
He’s at a 51% Zone% since May 23rd, that’s way up from the 47.5% which he had posted prior.
Burke has been throwing 38% four-seamers over these last 619 pitches, and the pitch has been great. He has a 12.7% SwStr%, a 50% Strike%, and a 31% Ball% on it. He’s not wasting many pitches with it, and he’s getting a good number of whiffs (the league average on a FF is a 10.4% SwStr%). It’s a good fastball. Behind it, he has a pretty evne mix of curveballs and sliders. The curveball has been a lot better than the slider, so I’m hoping he leans into that a little bit more. That curveball has a .185 AVG allowed on the last 156 offerings with an elite 57% Strike% and a 57% GB%. It’s hard to do anything at all with.
So where do we take this? The Blue Jays are not a slouch matchup anymore. In fact, they’re now 12th in the league in runs, and they’re #2 in the league with 172 runs scored since June first. They’re slashing .267/.333/.417 in that time with a tiny, tiny 16.1% K%. That’s the lowest strikeout rate in the league by far.
That makes it tough to trust Burke tonight. But it does make me think that the Blue Jays can rack up some hits against him. Burke is throwing strikes, and the Blue Jays are getting balls into play. I think Burke can work decently deep into this game because I do think he’ll get some quick outs, but this is an elevated spot for Blue Jays hits tonight.
Plays
→ Sean Burke 6+ Hits Allowed
The Rockies finish their first half with a road trip, and it starts tonight. There’s a history of the Rockies being particularly bad the first game after the descent from the Rocky Mountains. They flew to the East Coast last night for this series against the Red Sox.
And they’ll roll out probably their worst pitcher to start it all off. Gomber has a 15.6% K%, a 5.4% BB%, and a .348 xwOBA allowed since last year in 182 innings. He’s not a Major League pitcher, but the MLB keeps punishing the Rockies by making them pitch at least eight innings 162 times per year, so this is what you get.
The Red Sox lineup has an .828 OPS against left-handed pitching since the Rafael Devers trade. They’re way down at .708 against righties. So we think they can knock in some runs early in this one.
On the other side of the pitching matchup, now.
It’s not like Richard Fitts has been much better. He has a 15.5% K% with a 7.7% BB% and a .348 xwOBA allowed over his last 45 innings in the Majors. Those numbers almost exactly match what Gomber has. But you know I like to bet on good fastballs. And Fitts has a good fastball.
He has thrown 161 of these bad boys this year and has a super-elite 58% Strike% on the pitch. He’s on the first page of the leaderbord with that number.
It’s not going to stay that high, but it’s a great sign for his ability to get outs in the Major Leagues at some point. And there’s no better spot than this one against the Rockies at home in the first game of a roadie.
Plays
→ First 5 Innings, Red Sox -0.5 (-140)
I just want to let you know that I don’t know what Zac Gallen is going to do tonight. Everything was looking super awful for him this year until he popped off last start against the Giants:
7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 10 SO, 0 BB, 1 HR, 34.8 DraftKings points
It’s a two-start week for him. So I went and picked him up, and I’m guessing a lot of people did the same after the original Gallen owner got fed up and cut him. And that might prove to be an awful idea. His 5.45 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 21.9% K%, 9.4% BB%, and 1.73 HR/9 do not inspire in us any form of confidence about his game. But we do have a much better track record of success from Gallen, so in the back of your mind you’re still thinking that maybe he can just figure out what he’s been doing wrong and rekindle that old flame.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
He’s up against Yu Darvish, which is also interesting. This will be his first MLB start of the year. He made just one rehab outing back on May 14th. So we’ve seen basically none of the guy. I wouldn’t expect more than a couple of innings from Darvish tonight, which makes this a fine spot for the Diamondbacks as a team.
I’m rooting for Gallen. That’s all I’m trying to say. But if you’re begging me for a play, I think there’s a pretty good shot at a run being scored early in this one. The Padres are loaded at the top of the lineup, Corbin Carroll is back, and Yu Darvish has quite a bit of rust to shake off.
→ Over 0.5 Runs in First Inning -115
My scripts this year are now smart enough to decide to “recommend” a prop bet or not based on how recommendations like them have performed so far this year.
For example, we have this one first:
Heliot Ramos Over 0.5 HR
Price: +800
Bet Value: +0.78
So it looks at the bet type (a home run over bet) and the bet value (somewhere around 8%) and then sees if those recommendations have been profitable so far this year. In this case, they have.
It does that for every prop bet over a 5% value, and then gives you the thinned-down list on the “Recommended Bets” tab of the JonPGH Player Prop Comparison sheet. But this list has been thinning. The books adjust through the year, and the lines they’re doing poorly on will often sharpen up, and that’s what we’ve seen. So we have just five, here they are:
I’m going back to basics and getting into the $5 and $1 Hundo contests. I’m pulling back on the volume here and just focusing on the beauty of the game. I won the Hundo a handful of times last year, so let’s get back into that. It’s the lowest rake tourney DraftKings offers, although they’ve taken the $10 option away from us this year.
There are 100 entrants, and $450 comes back to the players, so that’s a 10% rake. Much easier to actually win it, and more fun since you can actually track the contest pretty well since it’s just 99 other lineups. Let’s get to these best plays.
There’s a clear top four tonight, and that’s where our two should be chosen from if we’re building for some relative safety and upside.
It’s a dream spot for deGrom against an Angels team that is back in the league lead with a 26.5% K%. deGrom has five straight starts with 6+ strikeouts, and he’s sailed over 20 DraftKings points in each of his last three.
The Angels bleed fantasy points to opposing pitchers. They’ve allowed 0.74 DraftKings points per batter faced to opposing pitchers this year. Only the Rockies are worse.
So you have the combination of a truly great SP and a truly great matchup. This price tag could be $11,000 and I think you’d still have to consider it.
I don’t think it’s very tough to choose deGrom over Yamamoto in a single lineup situation. The Brewers aren’t a tough matchup this season, but they’re nowhere near the Angels.
Yamamoto has been awesome this year, though, so he could certainly outscore deGrom here. He’s at a 28.6% K% with an 8.4% BB% and a 2.77 JA ERA which is buoyed by his high 55% GB%. The floor is great for him, but I’d rather take the higher strikeout floor that the Angels lineup gives us.
Kikuchi has a 37.6% K%, a 5.0% BB%, and a 1.51 JA ERA over his last four starts. That’s a small sample, and we should be wary of it. But it is tough to see this $7,200 tag and not jump at it.
His K% by Month:
→ March 22%
→ April 20%
→ May 21%
→ June 32%
→ July 29%
It’s all been great for the lefty. And this is a good matchup to boot. The Rangers have allowed 0.68 DraftKings points per batter faced to opposing pitchers, that’s the seventh-most in the league.
The best way to put up a decent outing is just to not give up a homer. Sanchez is great at that, and he gets some extra help from the ballpark tonight. Going from Philly to San Francisco is a huge bosot to your home run suppression expectations. Sanchez has been fantastic this year. And who knows, maybe he’s even a little bit perturbed by the All Star Game snub.
If you’re one to be concerned about recent form, you’re in luck. Sanchez has a 24% K-BB% and a 2.09 JA ERA over his last five starts with 34 strikeouts and just two walks in that time (he actually hasn’t walked a batter since June 8th).
Sanchez is a very strong option at this price tag.
Fitts is the clear salary-saver pick of the night. LIke we saw above, he hasn’t actually been good in the Major Leagues. Maybe that’s enough reason to fade him in my one lineup; he’s sure to garner some ownership. But yeah, I think he’s a great play in this spot for all of the reasons I already talked about.
Just throwing this in there as a GPP option. I don’t think anybody will touch the guy, and I do think Burke is capable of six strong innings tonight if the batted balls go right at some of his fielders. But it’s much too low of a strikeout expectation for me to use in a single lineup.
We have some cheap bats in great spots tonight. The top stacks I’m eyeing up:
Here’s how it came together:
SP Jacob deGrom
SP Yusei Kikuchi
C Agustin Ramirez
1B Romy Gonzalez
2B Jonathan India
3B Nate Eaton
SS Elly De La Cruz
OF Kyle Stowers
OF Jesus Sanchez
OF Addison Barger
Alright that’s it, onto the automated part. Hope you enjoyed the new format!
MIA (vs. Brady Singer): 78.62 Projected Points
BOS (vs. Austin Gomber): 78.3 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Freddy Peralta): 76.98 Projected Points
CIN (vs. Janson Junk): 74.09 Projected Points
TEX (vs. Yusei Kikuchi): 73.43 Projected Points
SF (vs. Cristopher Sanchez): 60.44 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Jose Berrios): 60.73 Projected Points
CLE (vs. Colton Gordon): 61.63 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Noah Cameron): 61.66 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Tanner Bibee): 62.3 Projected Points
MIA: 78.62 Today, 60.31 Season Average
BOS: 78.3 Today, 66.61 Season Average
COL: 71.35 Today, 62.51 Season Average
TEX: 73.43 Today, 65.85 Season Average
CIN: 74.09 Today, 67.77 Season Average
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Hunter Goodman: 8.99 Today, 8.97 Previous Max
Romy Gonzalez: 10.66 Today, 10.22 Previous Max
Rob Refsnyder: 9.55 Today, 9.39 Previous Max
Trevor Story: 8.6 Today, 7.97 Previous Max
Xavier Edwards: 9.98 Today, 9.57 Previous Max
Jesus Sanchez: 9.98 Today, 9.83 Previous Max
Otto Lopez: 9.62 Today, 8.97 Previous Max
Agustin Ramirez: 9.83 Today, 9.54 Previous Max
Sam Haggerty: 9.55 Today, 9.44 Previous Max
Jacob deGrom $10300.0 vs. LAA: 20.94 points
Yoshinobu Yamamoto $10500.0 vs. MIL: 20.2 points
Cristopher Sanchez $8800.0 vs. SF: 17.39 points
Yusei Kikuchi $7200.0 vs. TEX: 17.26 points
Freddy Peralta $9000.0 vs. LAD: 15.77 points
Yusei Kikuchi $7200.0 vs. TEX: 17.26 points, 2.4 value
Richard Fitts $6200.0 vs. COL: 13.84 points, 2.23 value
Janson Junk $6000.0 vs. CIN: 13.19 points, 2.2 value
Austin Gomber $4500.0 vs. BOS: 9.36 points, 2.08 value
Jacob deGrom $10300.0 vs. LAA: 20.94 points, 2.03 value
1. Agustin Ramirez ($4000.0) vs. Brady Singer: 9.83 points, 1.38 score
2. Connor Wong ($2200.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 7.12 points, 1.23 score
3. Hunter Goodman ($5100.0) vs. Richard Fitts: 8.99 points, 1.19 score
4. Liam Hicks ($3400.0) vs. Brady Singer: 7.88 points, 1.09 score
5. Kyle Teel ($3100.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 7.11 points, 1.08 score
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6500.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 12.52 points, 1.45 score
2. Romy Gonzalez ($4400.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 10.66 points, 1.4 score
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5200.0) vs. Sean Burke: 9.84 points, 1.23 score
4. Jake Burger ($3000.0) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 8.25 points, 1.23 score
5. David Fry ($2600.0) vs. Colton Gordon: 8.05 points, 1.22 score
1. Romy Gonzalez ($4400.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 10.66 points, 1.4 score
2. Xavier Edwards ($4200.0) vs. Brady Singer: 9.98 points, 1.31 score
3. Matt McLain ($4100.0) vs. Janson Junk: 8.86 points, 1.21 score
4. Marcus Semien ($3800.0) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 8.83 points, 1.14 score
5. Jonathan India ($3400.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 7.93 points, 1.12 score
1. Nate Eaton ($2500.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 8.41 points, 1.32 score
2. Jose Ramirez ($5500.0) vs. Colton Gordon: 9.69 points, 1.16 score
3. Ryan McMahon ($3600.0) vs. Richard Fitts: 8.45 points, 1.15 score
4. Matt Chapman ($3700.0) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 8.23 points, 1.11 score
5. Will Wagner ($2300.0) vs. Sean Burke: 7.0 points, 1.05 score
1. Elly De La Cruz ($5900.0) vs. Janson Junk: 11.71 points, 1.48 score
2. Bobby Witt Jr. ($5400.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 10.49 points, 1.33 score
3. Otto Lopez ($3700.0) vs. Brady Singer: 9.62 points, 1.29 score
4. Corey Seager ($4300.0) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 9.63 points, 1.21 score
5. Mookie Betts ($4700.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 9.12 points, 1.15 score
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6500.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 12.52 points, 1.45 score
2. Jesus Sanchez ($3800.0) vs. Brady Singer: 9.98 points, 1.4 score
3. Roman Anthony ($3900.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 10.03 points, 1.37 score
4. Rob Refsnyder ($3700.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 9.55 points, 1.31 score
5. Wyatt Langford ($3900.0) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 9.65 points, 1.29 score
6. Sam Haggerty ($4100.0) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 9.55 points, 1.23 score
7. Corbin Carroll ($5800.0) vs. Yu Darvish: 10.0 points, 1.21 score
8. Jordan Beck ($4200.0) vs. Richard Fitts: 9.23 points, 1.2 score
9. George Springer ($5000.0) vs. Sean Burke: 8.83 points, 1.18 score
10. Mickey Moniak ($3800.0) vs. Richard Fitts: 8.53 points, 1.16 score
11. Adolis Garcia ($3700.0) vs. Yusei Kikuchi: 8.52 points, 1.15 score
12. Brenton Doyle ($3200.0) vs. Richard Fitts: 7.96 points, 1.13 score
13. Nathan Lukes ($3100.0) vs. Sean Burke: 8.35 points, 1.13 score
14. Jackson Merrill ($4600.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 9.46 points, 1.12 score
15. Hyeseong Kim ($3900.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 8.93 points, 1.11 score
TB 4.3 - DET 4.16
TB 50.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.46
Shane Baz: 31 GS, 2761 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 8.7 BB%, 12.2 SwStr%, 47.4 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%, 45.5 GB%, 9 Brl%
Dietrich Enns: 2 GS, 160 Pitches, 17.9 K%, 10.3 BB%, 13.8 SwStr%, 49.4 Strike%, 33.1 Ball%, 50.0 GB%, 7 Brl%
Shane Baz (TB): 91 Pitches 5.94 IP, 4.7 H, 2.4 ER, 5.8 K, 2.2 BB, 17.04 FPts
Dietrich Enns (DET): 80 Pitches 5.24 IP, 4.9 H, 2.3 ER, 4.5 K, 1.7 BB, 13.19 FPts
Shane Baz - 6.5 strikeouts
Dietrich Enns - Prop Not Found
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.38 PA, 1.18 H, 1.85 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.94 FPts
2. Josh Lowe: 4.47 PA, 0.98 H, 1.46 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.32 FPts
3. Junior Caminero: 4.37 PA, 1.11 H, 2.08 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.74 FPts
4. Jonathan Aranda: 4.27 PA, 1.02 H, 1.53 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.17 FPts
5. Jake Mangum: 4.16 PA, 1.27 H, 1.74 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.96 FPts
6. Taylor Walls: 3.99 PA, 0.74 H, 1.02 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.2 SB, 6.27 FPts
7. Jose Caballero: 3.93 PA, 0.8 H, 1.19 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.33 SB, 7.57 FPts
8. Chandler Simpson: 3.8 PA, 1.0 H, 1.12 TB, 0.0 HR, 0.49 SB, 8.38 FPts
9. Danny Jansen: 3.36 PA, 0.61 H, 1.09 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.28 FPts
1. Colt Keith: 4.61 PA, 1.09 H, 1.69 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.62 FPts
2. Gleyber Torres: 4.47 PA, 1.01 H, 1.57 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.78 FPts
3. Wenceel Perez: 4.4 PA, 0.99 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.59 FPts
4. Riley Greene: 4.3 PA, 1.02 H, 1.86 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.36 FPts
5. Spencer Torkelson: 4.19 PA, 0.82 H, 1.48 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.95 FPts
6. Zach McKinstry: 3.77 PA, 0.84 H, 1.26 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.42 FPts
7. Dillon Dingler: 3.96 PA, 0.9 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.13 FPts
8. Parker Meadows: 3.82 PA, 0.75 H, 1.23 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.62 FPts
9. Trey Sweeney: 3.63 PA, 0.77 H, 1.2 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.84 FPts
Josh Lowe TB - Hitter K Over 1.5 (+340) - 0.143 value
Dillon Dingler DET - Hitter K Over 1.5 (+360) - 0.106 value
Game not on slate
BOS 5.92 - COL 5.22
BOS 53.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 11.14
Richard Fitts: 10 GS, 729 Pitches, 15.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 48.1 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%, 38.4 GB%, 8 Brl%
Austin Gomber: 34 GS, 2934 Pitches, 15.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 9.5 SwStr%, 45.2 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%, 37.9 GB%, 10 Brl%
Richard Fitts (BOS): 82 Pitches 5.17 IP, 5.2 H, 2.7 ER, 5.0 K, 1.4 BB, 13.84 FPts
Austin Gomber (COL): 84 Pitches 5.0 IP, 5.7 H, 2.8 ER, 3.7 K, 1.4 BB, 9.36 FPts
Richard Fitts - 5.5 strikeouts
Austin Gomber - 5.5 strikeouts
1. Mickey Moniak: 4.22 PA, 1.05 H, 1.94 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.53 FPts
2. Hunter Goodman: 4.47 PA, 1.09 H, 2.15 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.99 FPts
3. Jordan Beck: 4.37 PA, 1.05 H, 1.98 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.13 SB, 9.23 FPts
4. Thairo Estrada: 4.05 PA, 1.04 H, 1.65 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.3 FPts
5. Ryan McMahon: 4.16 PA, 0.94 H, 1.75 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.45 FPts
6. Brenton Doyle: 4.05 PA, 0.95 H, 1.67 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.96 FPts
7. Michael Toglia: 3.93 PA, 0.85 H, 1.68 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.67 FPts
8. Ryan Ritter: 3.8 PA, 0.83 H, 1.3 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.49 FPts
9. Yanquiel Fernandez: 3.6 PA, 0.9 H, 1.56 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.73 FPts
1. Nate Eaton: 4.58 PA, 0.99 H, 1.51 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.41 FPts
2. Romy Gonzalez: 4.47 PA, 1.22 H, 2.3 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.17 SB, 10.66 FPts
3. Roman Anthony: 4.37 PA, 1.05 H, 1.95 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.09 SB, 10.03 FPts
4. Rob Refsnyder: 4.22 PA, 1.14 H, 1.91 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.55 FPts
5. Trevor Story: 4.06 PA, 1.02 H, 1.83 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.6 FPts
6. Jarren Duran: 4.05 PA, 1.09 H, 1.82 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.83 FPts
7. Abraham Toro: 3.93 PA, 1.0 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.01 FPts
8. Connor Wong: 3.8 PA, 0.96 H, 1.52 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.12 FPts
9. Ceddanne Rafaela: 3.6 PA, 0.99 H, 1.78 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.09 FPts
Nate Eaton BOS - Hitter K Over 0.5 (+105) - 0.159 value
Romy Gonzalez (BOS) 1B/2B $4400: 10.66 Proj, 1.4 Score
Roman Anthony (BOS) OF $3900: 10.03 Proj, 1.37 Score
Nate Eaton (BOS) 3B $2500: 8.41 Proj, 1.32 Score
Rob Refsnyder (BOS) OF $3700: 9.55 Proj, 1.31 Score
Connor Wong (BOS) C $2200: 7.12 Proj, 1.23 Score
MIA 5.96 - CIN 5.4
MIA 52.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 11.36
Brady Singer: 48 GS, 4432 Pitches, 21.7 K%, 8.0 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 44.6 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%, 44.2 GB%, 9 Brl%
Janson Junk: 3 GS, 711 Pitches, 20.6 K%, 3.0 BB%, 10.7 SwStr%, 49.6 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%, 40.8 GB%, 9 Brl%
Brady Singer (CIN): 95 Pitches 5.99 IP, 5.5 H, 3.0 ER, 5.0 K, 2.6 BB, 13.73 FPts
Janson Junk (MIA): 80 Pitches 4.88 IP, 5.1 H, 2.5 ER, 5.0 K, 1.1 BB, 13.19 FPts
Brady Singer - 6.5 strikeouts
Janson Junk - 5.5 strikeouts
1. Xavier Edwards: 4.67 PA, 1.17 H, 1.56 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.27 SB, 9.98 FPts
2. Jesus Sanchez: 4.51 PA, 1.09 H, 1.96 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.13 SB, 9.98 FPts
3. Otto Lopez: 4.46 PA, 1.17 H, 1.87 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.13 SB, 9.62 FPts
4. Agustin Ramirez: 4.36 PA, 1.09 H, 2.1 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.83 FPts
5. Kyle Stowers: 4.24 PA, 0.99 H, 1.84 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.98 FPts
6. Eric Wagaman: 4.13 PA, 0.98 H, 1.63 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.37 FPts
7. Liam Hicks: 4.01 PA, 0.84 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.88 FPts
8. Connor Norby: 3.87 PA, 0.85 H, 1.53 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.39 FPts
9. Dane Myers: 3.68 PA, 0.9 H, 1.45 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.59 FPts
1. TJ Friedl: 4.58 PA, 1.14 H, 1.82 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.91 FPts
2. Matt McLain: 4.47 PA, 1.08 H, 1.87 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.86 FPts
3. Elly De La Cruz: 4.37 PA, 1.17 H, 2.29 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.26 SB, 11.71 FPts
4. Austin Hays: 4.25 PA, 1.07 H, 1.93 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.41 FPts
5. Gavin Lux: 4.12 PA, 1.05 H, 1.57 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.63 FPts
6. Spencer Steer: 4.05 PA, 0.93 H, 1.58 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.57 FPts
7. Tyler Stephenson: 3.75 PA, 0.92 H, 1.6 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.99 FPts
8. Will Benson: 3.8 PA, 0.81 H, 1.52 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.73 FPts
9. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3.6 PA, 0.83 H, 1.51 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.28 FPts
Brady Singer CIN - Walks Over 2.5 (+285) - 0.232 value
Janson Junk MIA - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (+270) - 0.112 value
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) SS $5900: 11.71 Proj, 1.48 Score
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) OF $3800: 9.98 Proj, 1.4 Score
Agustin Ramirez (MIA) C $4000: 9.83 Proj, 1.38 Score
Xavier Edwards (MIA) 2B $4200: 9.98 Proj, 1.31 Score
Otto Lopez (MIA) SS $3700: 9.62 Proj, 1.29 Score
KC 4.56 - PIT 3.96
KC 53.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.52
Noah Cameron: 10 GS, 853 Pitches, 19.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, 11.6 SwStr%, 44.2 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%, 43.5 GB%, 6 Brl%
Andrew Heaney: 48 GS, 4207 Pitches, 21.4 K%, 6.6 BB%, 12.2 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 36.1 GB%, 8 Brl%
Noah Cameron (KC): 85 Pitches 5.27 IP, 4.8 H, 2.3 ER, 4.1 K, 1.6 BB, 12.82 FPts
Andrew Heaney (PIT): 85 Pitches 5.16 IP, 5.2 H, 2.5 ER, 2.9 K, 1.5 BB, 9.04 FPts
Noah Cameron - 4.5 strikeouts
Andrew Heaney - 3.5 strikeouts
1. Tommy Pham: 4.46 PA, 0.96 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.95 FPts
2. Andrew McCutchen: 4.26 PA, 0.9 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.98 FPts
3. Bryan Reynolds: 4.35 PA, 1.06 H, 1.76 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.07 FPts
4. Nick Gonzales: 4.27 PA, 1.09 H, 1.7 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.35 FPts
5. Oneil Cruz: 4.16 PA, 0.85 H, 1.46 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.83 FPts
6. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.04 PA, 1.01 H, 1.42 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.54 FPts
7. Jared Triolo: 3.93 PA, 0.77 H, 1.19 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.03 FPts
8. Joey Bart: 3.8 PA, 0.88 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.22 FPts
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 3.6 PA, 0.91 H, 1.21 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.69 FPts
1. Jonathan India: 4.39 PA, 1.03 H, 1.6 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.93 FPts
2. Bobby Witt Jr.: 4.38 PA, 1.27 H, 2.3 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.18 SB, 10.49 FPts
3. Vinnie Pasquantino: 4.29 PA, 1.03 H, 1.6 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.29 FPts
4. Maikel Garcia: 4.19 PA, 1.05 H, 1.63 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.33 FPts
5. Salvador Perez: 3.98 PA, 0.98 H, 1.82 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.44 FPts
6. Jac Caglianone: 3.97 PA, 0.99 H, 1.62 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.06 FPts
7. Mark Canha: 3.84 PA, 0.83 H, 1.22 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.07 FPts
8. Freddy Fermin: 3.73 PA, 0.92 H, 1.32 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.8 FPts
9. Nick Loftin: 3.53 PA, 0.77 H, 1.19 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.91 FPts
Andrew Heaney PIT - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (+100) - 0.165 value
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) SS $5400: 10.49 Proj, 1.33 Score
Jonathan India (KC) 2B $3400: 7.93 Proj, 1.12 Score
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) OF $3600: 8.07 Proj, 1.1 Score
Jac Caglianone (KC) 1B $2500: 7.06 Proj, 1.08 Score
Tommy Pham (PIT) OF $2500: 6.95 Proj, 1.08 Score
TOR 4.82 - CWS 3.84
TOR 55.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.66
Jose Berrios: 50 GS, 4510 Pitches, 20.1 K%, 7.2 BB%, 10.3 SwStr%, 45.7 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%, 41.7 GB%, 9 Brl%
Sean Burke: 17 GS, 1766 Pitches, 20.8 K%, 9.9 BB%, 12.1 SwStr%, 44.2 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%, 34.5 GB%, 10 Brl%
Jose Berrios (TOR): 90 Pitches 5.57 IP, 4.9 H, 2.4 ER, 4.5 K, 1.9 BB, 13.85 FPts
Sean Burke (CWS): 87 Pitches 5.38 IP, 5.5 H, 2.7 ER, 4.0 K, 2.0 BB, 10.81 FPts
Jose Berrios - 5.5 strikeouts
Sean Burke - 6.5 strikeouts
1. Nathan Lukes: 4.56 PA, 1.07 H, 1.61 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.35 FPts
2. George Springer: 4.23 PA, 0.95 H, 1.81 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.83 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.31 PA, 1.15 H, 2.15 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.84 FPts
4. Bo Bichette: 4.23 PA, 1.08 H, 1.81 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.09 FPts
5. Addison Barger: 4.14 PA, 0.97 H, 1.83 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.24 FPts
6. Alejandro Kirk: 3.82 PA, 0.96 H, 1.59 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.11 FPts
7. Will Wagner: 3.91 PA, 0.91 H, 1.45 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.0 FPts
8. Ernie Clement: 3.78 PA, 0.92 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.26 FPts
9. Joey Loperfido: 3.59 PA, 0.7 H, 1.06 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.36 FPts
1. Mike Tauchman: 4.41 PA, 0.95 H, 1.55 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.67 FPts
2. Chase Meidroth: 4.44 PA, 1.08 H, 1.45 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.49 FPts
3. Andrew Benintendi: 4.28 PA, 1.03 H, 1.73 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.46 FPts
4. Miguel Vargas: 4.25 PA, 0.8 H, 1.38 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.77 FPts
5. Kyle Teel: 4.14 PA, 0.84 H, 1.43 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.11 FPts
6. Lenyn Sosa: 4.03 PA, 0.98 H, 1.56 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.19 FPts
7. Colson Montgomery: 3.91 PA, 0.8 H, 1.41 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.24 FPts
8. Brooks Baldwin: 3.78 PA, 0.79 H, 1.26 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.9 FPts
9. Josh Rojas: 3.56 PA, 0.78 H, 1.17 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.9 FPts
Jose Berrios TOR - Pitcher Outs Under 17.5 (+115) - 0.127 value
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $5200: 9.84 Proj, 1.23 Score
George Springer (TOR) OF $5000: 8.83 Proj, 1.18 Score
Nathan Lukes (TOR) OF $3100: 8.35 Proj, 1.13 Score
Kyle Teel (CWS) C $3100: 7.11 Proj, 1.08 Score
Will Wagner (TOR) 3B $2300: 7.0 Proj, 1.05 Score
LAD 5.8 - MIL 4.42
LAD 56.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 10.22
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 35 GS, 3039 Pitches, 28.6 K%, 7.2 BB%, 12.8 SwStr%, 49.2 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 51.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Freddy Peralta: 50 GS, 4773 Pitches, 26.9 K%, 9.0 BB%, 14.3 SwStr%, 46.0 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%, 37.2 GB%, 9 Brl%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 97 Pitches 6.48 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 7.2 K, 2.9 BB, 20.2 FPts
Freddy Peralta (MIL): 95 Pitches 6.16 IP, 5.0 H, 2.8 ER, 5.8 K, 2.9 BB, 15.77 FPts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 7.5 strikeouts
Freddy Peralta - 5.5 strikeouts
1. Shohei Ohtani: 4.6 PA, 1.09 H, 2.33 TB, 0.31 HR, 0.22 SB, 12.52 FPts
2. Mookie Betts: 4.5 PA, 1.06 H, 1.72 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.12 FPts
3. Freddie Freeman: 4.4 PA, 1.05 H, 1.74 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 9.22 FPts
4. Andy Pages: 4.37 PA, 1.1 H, 1.85 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.6 FPts
5. Michael Conforto: 4.23 PA, 0.89 H, 1.57 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.02 FPts
6. Hyeseong Kim: 4.15 PA, 0.95 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.29 SB, 8.93 FPts
7. Miguel Rojas: 3.95 PA, 0.89 H, 1.22 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.04 FPts
8. Dalton Rushing: 3.89 PA, 0.79 H, 1.41 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.64 FPts
9. Esteury Ruiz: 3.69 PA, 0.82 H, 1.19 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.24 SB, 6.89 FPts
1. Sal Frelick: 4.57 PA, 1.12 H, 1.54 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.11 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.36 PA, 0.93 H, 1.51 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.95 FPts
3. Christian Yelich: 4.29 PA, 0.92 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.31 FPts
4. Jackson Chourio: 4.26 PA, 1.01 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.37 FPts
5. Brice Turang: 4.15 PA, 0.95 H, 1.4 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.23 SB, 8.02 FPts
6. Isaac Collins: 4.04 PA, 0.73 H, 1.15 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.9 FPts
7. Caleb Durbin: 3.92 PA, 0.86 H, 1.29 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.58 FPts
8. Jake Bauers: 3.7 PA, 0.6 H, 1.12 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.25 FPts
9. Joey Ortiz: 3.6 PA, 0.74 H, 1.11 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.9 FPts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD - Walks Over 2.5 (+180) - 0.204 value
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD - Pitcher Outs Over 18.5 (+154) - 0.176 value
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD - Strikeouts Over 7.5 (+265) - 0.15 value
Freddy Peralta MIL - Walks Over 2.5 (+130) - 0.126 value
Jake Bauers MIL - Hitter K Over 1.5 (+180) - 0.115 value
Freddy Peralta MIL - Pitcher Outs Over 17.5 (+112) - 0.104 value
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 1B/OF $6500: 12.52 Proj, 1.45 Score
Mookie Betts (LAD) SS $4700: 9.12 Proj, 1.15 Score
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1B $4900: 9.22 Proj, 1.12 Score
Hyeseong Kim (LAD) 2B/OF $3900: 8.93 Proj, 1.11 Score
Michael Conforto (LAD) OF $2900: 8.02 Proj, 1.1 Score
HOU 4.06 - CLE 3.94
HOU 50.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.0
Tanner Bibee: 48 GS, 4491 Pitches, 24.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 48.2 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%, 39.0 GB%, 8 Brl%
Colton Gordon: 9 GS, 762 Pitches, 20.9 K%, 2.6 BB%, 9.3 SwStr%, 48.4 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%, 36.2 GB%, 9 Brl%
Tanner Bibee (CLE): 97 Pitches 5.95 IP, 5.6 H, 2.6 ER, 4.7 K, 1.6 BB, 14.09 FPts
Colton Gordon (HOU): 83 Pitches 5.2 IP, 5.1 H, 2.4 ER, 3.7 K, 1.4 BB, 11.74 FPts
Tanner Bibee - 5.5 strikeouts
Colton Gordon - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Steven Kwan: 4.58 PA, 1.18 H, 1.66 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.92 FPts
2. David Fry: 4.47 PA, 0.99 H, 1.77 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.05 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.28 PA, 1.13 H, 2.1 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.19 SB, 9.69 FPts
4. Carlos Santana: 4.18 PA, 0.89 H, 1.54 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.28 FPts
5. Angel Martinez: 4.16 PA, 0.94 H, 1.41 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.34 FPts
6. Johnathan Rodriguez: 4.05 PA, 0.89 H, 1.62 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.99 FPts
7. Will Wilson: 3.93 PA, 0.76 H, 1.22 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.65 FPts
8. Austin Hedges: 3.67 PA, 0.57 H, 0.86 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.13 FPts
9. Brayan Rocchio: 3.6 PA, 0.73 H, 1.13 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.58 FPts
1. Isaac Paredes: 4.54 PA, 0.99 H, 1.74 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.98 FPts
2. Jake Meyers: 4.43 PA, 1.05 H, 1.64 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.76 FPts
3. Jose Altuve: 4.27 PA, 1.03 H, 1.63 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.53 FPts
4. Cam Smith: 4.23 PA, 1.09 H, 1.79 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.99 FPts
5. Christian Walker: 4.03 PA, 0.86 H, 1.6 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.91 FPts
6. Victor Caratini: 3.98 PA, 0.9 H, 1.51 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.52 FPts
7. Yainer Diaz: 3.9 PA, 1.03 H, 1.71 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.73 FPts
8. Cooper Hummel: 3.76 PA, 0.64 H, 1.12 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.71 FPts
9. Mauricio Dubon: 3.46 PA, 0.84 H, 1.21 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.17 FPts
David Fry (CLE) 1B $2600: 8.05 Proj, 1.22 Score
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3B $5500: 9.69 Proj, 1.16 Score
Johnathan Rodriguez (CLE) OF $2300: 6.99 Proj, 1.04 Score
Cam Smith (HOU) OF $3700: 7.99 Proj, 1.04 Score
Jake Meyers (HOU) OF $3600: 7.76 Proj, 1.02 Score
TEX 5.34 - LAA 4.16
TEX 56.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 9.5
Jacob deGrom: 20 GS, 1626 Pitches, 26.5 K%, 5.1 BB%, 15.3 SwStr%, 49.4 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%, 42.3 GB%, 6 Brl%
Yusei Kikuchi: 50 GS, 4651 Pitches, 26.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 13.1 SwStr%, 48.2 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%, 42.2 GB%, 10 Brl%
Jacob deGrom (TEX): 86 Pitches 5.47 IP, 4.2 H, 2.1 ER, 7.4 K, 1.2 BB, 20.94 FPts
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 95 Pitches 6.02 IP, 5.4 H, 2.9 ER, 6.6 K, 2.0 BB, 17.26 FPts
Jacob deGrom - 9.5 strikeouts
Yusei Kikuchi - 7.5 strikeouts
1. Sam Haggerty: 4.6 PA, 1.04 H, 1.61 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.25 SB, 9.55 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.48 PA, 1.14 H, 2.22 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.63 FPts
3. Marcus Semien: 4.45 PA, 1.03 H, 1.82 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.83 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.36 PA, 0.94 H, 1.82 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.52 FPts
5. Wyatt Langford: 4.24 PA, 1.04 H, 2.01 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.65 FPts
6. Jonah Heim: 3.88 PA, 0.92 H, 1.55 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.82 FPts
7. Jake Burger: 4.01 PA, 0.96 H, 1.96 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.25 FPts
8. Kyle Higashioka: 3.73 PA, 0.74 H, 1.41 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.07 FPts
9. Ezequiel Duran: 3.68 PA, 0.78 H, 1.25 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.11 FPts
1. Zach Neto: 4.32 PA, 1.04 H, 1.97 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.74 FPts
2. Nolan Schanuel: 4.21 PA, 1.03 H, 1.62 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.57 FPts
3. Mike Trout: 4.04 PA, 0.91 H, 1.95 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.54 FPts
4. Taylor Ward: 4.0 PA, 0.84 H, 1.62 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.03 FPts
5. Jo Adell: 3.92 PA, 0.84 H, 1.68 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.37 FPts
6. Jorge Soler: 3.54 PA, 0.68 H, 1.29 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.66 FPts
7. Travis d'Arnaud: 3.64 PA, 0.76 H, 1.44 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.88 FPts
8. Luis Rengifo: 3.54 PA, 0.87 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.1 FPts
9. Chad Stevens: 3.4 PA, 0.74 H, 1.26 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.69 FPts
Jacob deGrom TEX - Pitcher Outs Under 17.5 (+145) - 0.213 value
Kyle Higashioka TEX - Hitter K Over 1.5 (+330) - 0.112 value
Wyatt Langford (TEX) OF $3900: 9.65 Proj, 1.29 Score
Sam Haggerty (TEX) OF $4100: 9.55 Proj, 1.23 Score
Jake Burger (TEX) 1B $3000: 8.25 Proj, 1.23 Score
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $4300: 9.63 Proj, 1.21 Score
Adolis Garcia (TEX) OF $3700: 8.52 Proj, 1.15 Score
SD 4.58 - ARI 4.56
SD 50.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.14
Zac Gallen: 46 GS, 4209 Pitches, 23.8 K%, 8.9 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 45.3 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%, 44.0 GB%, 10 Brl%
Yu Darvish: 16 GS, 1261 Pitches, 23.6 K%, 6.4 BB%, 13.2 SwStr%, 49.0 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%, 39.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Zac Gallen (ARI): 96 Pitches 5.88 IP, 5.9 H, 2.8 ER, 3.8 K, 2.4 BB, 11.3 FPts
Yu Darvish (SD): 75 Pitches 4.9 IP, 4.1 H, 2.2 ER, 3.6 K, 2.5 BB, 11.06 FPts
Zac Gallen - 4.5 strikeouts
Yu Darvish - 3.5 strikeouts
1. Corbin Carroll: 4.58 PA, 1.0 H, 1.9 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.2 SB, 10.0 FPts
2. Ketel Marte: 4.33 PA, 1.03 H, 1.94 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.05 SB, 9.32 FPts
3. Geraldo Perdomo: 4.2 PA, 0.92 H, 1.4 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.11 FPts
4. Josh Naylor: 4.18 PA, 1.04 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.42 FPts
5. Eugenio Suarez: 4.09 PA, 0.85 H, 1.59 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.12 FPts
6. Jake McCarthy: 4.05 PA, 0.93 H, 1.26 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.79 FPts
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 3.75 PA, 0.87 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.38 FPts
8. Alek Thomas: 3.8 PA, 0.81 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.84 FPts
9. Jose Herrera: 3.6 PA, 0.59 H, 0.76 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.65 FPts
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.43 PA, 1.1 H, 1.97 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.14 SB, 9.46 FPts
2. Jackson Merrill: 4.43 PA, 1.26 H, 2.19 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.08 SB, 9.46 FPts
3. Manny Machado: 4.22 PA, 1.08 H, 1.89 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.66 FPts
4. Luis Arraez: 4.2 PA, 1.17 H, 1.53 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.01 FPts
5. Gavin Sheets: 3.68 PA, 0.91 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.13 FPts
6. Xander Bogaerts: 3.95 PA, 1.0 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.4 FPts
7. Jake Cronenworth: 3.89 PA, 0.89 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.16 FPts
8. Trenton Brooks: 3.77 PA, 0.76 H, 1.17 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.41 FPts
9. Elias Diaz: 3.53 PA, 0.74 H, 1.17 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.23 FPts
Zac Gallen ARI - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (+100) - 0.158 value
Corbin Carroll (ARI) OF $5800: 10.0 Proj, 1.21 Score
Jackson Merrill (SD) OF $4600: 9.46 Proj, 1.12 Score
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) OF $5600: 9.46 Proj, 1.1 Score
Ketel Marte (ARI) 2B $6000: 9.32 Proj, 1.02 Score
Trenton Brooks (SD) 1B $2000: 6.41 Proj, 1.01 Score
PHI 4.99 - SF 3.88
PHI 56.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.0
Projected Total: 8.87
Cristopher Sanchez: 48 GS, 4327 Pitches, 22.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 47.7 Strike%, 33.2 Ball%, 58.0 GB%, 5 Brl%
Landen Roupp: 21 GS, 2336 Pitches, 21.0 K%, 10.6 BB%, 10.7 SwStr%, 44.6 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%, 46.5 GB%, 7 Brl%
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 90 Pitches 5.83 IP, 5.1 H, 2.5 ER, 6.1 K, 1.9 BB, 17.39 FPts
Landen Roupp (SF): 85 Pitches 5.24 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 4.3 K, 2.6 BB, 11.43 FPts
Cristopher Sanchez - 6.5 strikeouts
Landen Roupp - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Trea Turner: 4.46 PA, 1.18 H, 1.84 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.99 FPts
2. Kyle Schwarber: 4.27 PA, 0.86 H, 1.7 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.06 SB, 9.27 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.24 PA, 1.02 H, 1.72 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.87 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 4.16 PA, 1.06 H, 1.6 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.35 FPts
5. Nick Castellanos: 3.97 PA, 1.04 H, 1.74 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.74 FPts
6. Max Kepler: 3.93 PA, 0.89 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.11 FPts
7. J.T. Realmuto: 3.84 PA, 0.93 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.94 FPts
8. Bryson Stott: 3.76 PA, 0.88 H, 1.32 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.18 FPts
9. Brandon Marsh: 3.57 PA, 0.83 H, 1.35 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.28 FPts
1. Heliot Ramos: 4.43 PA, 1.07 H, 1.94 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.35 FPts
2. Rafael Devers: 4.3 PA, 0.92 H, 1.62 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.66 FPts
3. Wilmer Flores: 3.92 PA, 0.9 H, 1.45 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.37 FPts
4. Matt Chapman: 4.12 PA, 0.97 H, 1.76 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.23 FPts
5. Willy Adames: 3.97 PA, 0.8 H, 1.46 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.99 FPts
6. Luis Matos: 3.92 PA, 0.93 H, 1.42 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.42 FPts
7. Mike Yastrzemski: 3.75 PA, 0.74 H, 1.24 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.7 FPts
8. Patrick Bailey: 3.68 PA, 0.74 H, 1.1 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.08 FPts
9. Tyler Fitzgerald: 3.49 PA, 0.74 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.64 FPts
Matt Chapman (SF) 3B $3700: 8.23 Proj, 1.11 Score
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $5400: 9.27 Proj, 1.11 Score
Bryce Harper (PHI) 1B $5300: 8.87 Proj, 1.07 Score
Trea Turner (PHI) SS $5500: 8.99 Proj, 1.03 Score
Heliot Ramos (SF) OF $4300: 8.35 Proj, 1.02 Score
