MLB DW Slate Preview - July 8
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Spot #1: Byron Buxton vs. Shota Imanaga
He’s not quite a BOOM hitter tonight, because there is a fair bit of strikeout potential here. Imanaga gets plenty of whiffs and has had a very successful MLB career to this point.
So, while the strikeout part of the projection favors Imanaga, the projection on what happens if a ball gets hit into play here vastly favors Buxton. This year, Buxton has a 27% GB% against left-handed pitching. Imanaga has the same 27% GB% when facing right-handed bats. The league average GB% is 42%, and the lowest numbers you’ll typically see are in the low-30s.
Buxton is extremely likely to get a ball or two in the air against Imanaga tonight. And when Buxton gets a ball in the air, it’s a home run about 32% of the time (19 homers on 62 fly balls and he’s slugging 1.410 on those fly balls).
I’m expecting a hard struck fly ball or two from Buxton tonight.
Plays
→ Buxton 1+ Strikeouts -275
→ Buxton 1+ Home Runs +270
→ SGP +400
Spot #2: Cardinals vs. Jake Irvin
St. Louis tops the matchup model team rankings tonight in this spot against the very hittable Jake Irvin.
Irvin has a 4.32 JA ERA this year. He’s been one of the worst pitchers who has been allowed to consistently take the ball. The K% is under 17% against both sides of the plate, he does not keep the ball on the ground (41.7% GB%), and hitters have no trouble taking him deep (2o homers in 18 starts, .455 SLG against).
He throws a bunch of curveballs and slow fastballs, and that seems to be just like how these Cards bats like it.
Great spot for St. Louis just looking at the SP matchup. It gets even better when you look behind Irvin to the Washington bullpen, which ranks #28 of 30 teams playing tonight in my model.
Plays
→ Cardinals over 4.5 runs (-125)
→ Brendan Donovan 2+ Hits (+150)