MLB DW Slate Preview - June 16
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
We have got ourselves a six-game slate and I’m jazzed up for it. We’re going game by game! Off we go.
Phillies vs. Marlins
Pitchers
Immediately, we have a super interesting pitching matchup.
Mick Abel struck out nine in his debut and then went for two strikeouts against the Blue Jays and just three against the Cubs. But his SwStr% is still at 13.5% and his Ball% at 32.3%. Those are good numbers. He has good stuff (109 Stuff+). The fastball averages 96.1 and has a big 13.2% SwStr% on 106 pitches so far. I still have no idea who the guy is, but I did add him for this two-start week in my home league. This start will tell us a good bit about him, I think. I might even try to watch some of it.
Can we do anything with Abel tonight? With all of the unknown, it’s hard for me to trust my projection on him. But it’s not a good projection, especially since he’s priced at $9,000.
The Marlins’ matchups against the kind of stuff that Abel throws:
It’s a mixed bag, but overall, they look a bit better than you might suspect. The matchups algo puts them right in the middle of the pack here. It looks like they can get some balls in play here, but they’re probably not going to be hitting multiple bombs and running Abel out of this game super early.
For what it’s worth, The Bat X really hates Abel, giving him three points less than I am. I’d say he’s a fade in DFS, and I’d be looking more toward betting against him than for him.
On the other side is Sandy Alcantara. He’s coming off two solid starts. However, those starts were against the Rockies and Pirates. So this is a much different situation here against the Phillies. And it’s another spot where I don’t have any idea, I just want to watch and see what happens while getting more data on the situation. If I had to choose, I’d bet against Sandy here and his 6.7% K-BB% on the season.
The one line that seems weird to me is Sandy Alcantara under 17.5 outs +110. Sandy has thrown 71, 70, and 85 pitches in his last three. So he’s not out there ripping 100+ pitches like usual. The price seems inflated by his two recent good starts in those good matchups, so I’d be fine going with that.
Hitters
Here are your best matchups via the matchups algorithm. There’s nothing that really stands out.
For all of Alcantara’s struggles, it’s still tough to stack Phillies against him at these prices. His problem has more been a lack of command this year rather than him going out there and giving up three homers every time out.
I do think there’s some upside with Agustin Ramirez and Otto Lopez here. Abel profiles as a fly ball pitcher (36% GB% so far), and he’s been hit hard early on this year (.407 xwOBA on the fastballs) without really giving up a ton of damage. He has a 54% hard hit rate against. The Marlins aren’t an offense to take a ton of advantage of stuff like that, and hard hit rates against also aren’t very sticky, but we know what Agustin can do with the bat so I wouldn’t be surprised if he racks up some extra bases tonight.
Plays
Bets
Mick Abel under 4.5 K -105
Sandy Alcantara under 17.5 outs +110
Agustin Ramirez over 1.5 total bases +115
DFS Cash Targets
None
DFS GPP Targets (these are large-field tournament plays, and all of the cash plays will also be considered here although I won’t type them twice).
Marlins Stacks
Xavier Edwards ($4,100)
Augustin Ramirez ($3,800)
Jesus Sanchez ($3,700)
Otto Lopez ($3,400)
Rockies vs. Nationals
Pitchers
The Rockies are clearly the worst offense in the league. But Jake Irvin is one of the worst pitchers in the league. So what happens here? Irvin has a 4.50 JA ERA with an 8.2% K-BB% on an 8% SwStr%. He’s priced pretty aggressively at $8,100 on DraftKings. But man, it’s hard to fade a pitcher taking on the Rockies on a six-game slate, right? Since Logan Gilbert is just returning from an injury, it’s hard to say that he’s a great play at his $9,700 price. And there are no other great pitchers in good spots here.
If you look at the game logs, it has been good pitchers doing most of the big damage against the Rockies. It’s not as though every pitcher that faces the Rockies is out there ripping 7-10 strikeouts. I correctly had the Bryce Elder trap spot called what it was on Friday. Another comparable guy that has faced the Rockies recently would be Cal Quantrill, he scored just eight DK points against the Rockies this month. Hayden Birdsong scored 15, Max Meyer gave up ten hits and four runs with just seven fantasy points. So I guess I’m not too interested in Irvin here, especially at the elevated price.
Carson Palmquist has been really bad in his time in the Majors. But we get an appropriate price for him at $5,500 in DFS. Palmquist has a 14.8% K% with a 12% BB%. That’s a 2.8% K-BB%. His JA ERA is 5.19. I don’t think you can touch the guy even on this slate at this price in this (admittedly good) matchup with Washington.
Hitters
Two bad pitchers here means that we should have some DFS interest on the hitting side. Nationals righties are the most appealing. Palmquist has a 10% K%, a 12.5% BB%, and a .370 xwOBA allowed against righties this year. That amounts to a 6.03 JA ERA, a ridiculously high number. You can stack the Nationals fully, and you probably should do a lot of that in multi-entry. But the stand out plays are below.
Plays
Bets
Jake Irvin under 5.5 Strikeouts -135
Carson Palmquist under 5.5 hits allowed 125
DFS Cash Targets
Alex Call ($3,700)
CJ Abrams ($5,400)
Amed Rosario ($3,600)
James Wood ($5,700)
Josh Bell ($3,100)
DFS GPP Targets
Nats stacks
all of the above
Jordan Beck ($3,600)
Jake Irvin ($8,100)