MLB DW Slate Preview - June 18
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Let’s get it started today with some more player props, because we had a nice time with it last night, and I’m in that sort of mood this week. I believe that Stu will be here later with his own player props article. But the more, the merrier!
Mitchell Parker Under 4.5 Strikeouts +115
FanDuel has this at +118. So you can make a few more cents there if that’s the level you take this too.
Parker, of course, is against the Rockies. But my model isn’t giving him extra credit for this. He projects for 3.67 strikeouts today. That’s actually below his season average of 3.81.
That doesn’t make a ton of sense, does it? Well, let’s look at this Rockies lineup and their splits.
A lot of green there! Kyle Farmer, Orlando Arcia, Thairo Estrada, and Tyler Freeman are all names that haven’t been in the Rockies lineup consistently this year. But they’re all in there today, and they’re all good contact hitters against lefties. So this specific lineup doesn’t project for many strikeouts, and it doesn’t seem like the sports book is properly cooking this in. The Bat X has Parker for 4.7 strikeouts. That’s a lot higher than mine, but it still turns into a positive expected value when you take the +118 you can grab on FanDuel.
Jacob Misiorowski Over 2.5 BB +145
If it makes you feel a bit more comfortable, you can grab over 1.5 for -110. That’s a big difference in price for just one extra walk, and it turns into a big difference in bet value. Over 2.5 is at a 21.4% value, over 1.5 is at just 15.3%.
Mis went for a 39.5% Ball% in his first start and has a long history of being erratic. He also gets the tough task of facing the Cubs here. The Cubbies have a team 8.7% BB%, which is above the league average. There are plenty of guys in this lineup more than willing to take a walk.
We have Happ, Tucker, Busch, and Kelly over at (or just barely below) a double-digit walk rate against righties.
The Bat X is more optimistic here, giving Misiorowski 2.3 walks. So if you really are just looking for spots where it’s more than just me recommending him, I’d stay away from this one.
Trenton Brooks Over 0.5 Walks +240
Brooks is a Padres first baseman who just got the call-up recently. He homered last night, and we think he’ll get a start tonight because of it.
The Padres take on Emmet Sheehan tonight. It will be his first Major League appearance since 2023. And back then, he was a double-digit walk rate guy. So we’re guessing that he won’t be a command specialist, especially not right away here in his first start at the highest level in a really long time.
But the bet is all about Brooks’ approach. In AAA this year, Brooks swung the bat just 43% of the time.
If we look at some of the current MLB guys with swing rates around 43%:
We see a bunch of double-digit walk rates. Low swing rates equal high walk rates. And this approach will carry over, at least generally, from AAA to MLB. Brooks isn’t suddenly going to be up there hacking. He wants to take pitches, and that gives him a great chance at a walk in any game he plays. This +240 is just a mistake by DraftKings, and we’re hopping on it.