MLB DW Slate Preview - June 23
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Projection-Powered Props
Braxton Ashcraft Unders
It’s a curious spot for Ashcraft and the Pirates. He was a starter in AAA, but then was called up to join the Pirates bullpen. They have used him in plenty of longer spots, but most often he’s thrown one or two innings. That’s what I’d envision for him. Just two innings, unless he really cruises through those innings. So we like these lines:
Under 3.5 Hits
-105 on MGM
Under 2.5 Strikeouts
+106 on FanDuel
Under 1.5 Walks
-195 on DraftKings
Matthew Liberatore Under 17.5 Outs
We can get this for -130 on DraftKings, and I’m all about that. The Cardinals take on the Cubs, which is a brutal matchup for any SP. We have 95+ degree temperatures there, not an easy spot for a pitcher to go long in.
We have also seen a fall-off for Liberatore since his hot start to the year. He has just a 16.6% K% and an 8.5% SwStr% in his last six starts with a 3.83 JA ERA. He’s been in the single digits in whiffs in three starts. Opposing offenses are getting a lot of balls in play against him, and they’re going into the air quite a bit as well (40% GB%, .489 SLG, .348 xwOBA).
Over the last 20 games, just six staters have cleared 17.5 outs against the Cubs. They are
Tarik Skubal
Jack Flaherty
Zack Wheeler
Jesus Luzardo
Andrew Heaney
Mitch Keller
All things considered, a pretty strong grouping of pitchers, and I don’t the current form of Liberatore fits in. I feel pretty good about this one.
Nick Lodolo Under 1.5 Walks
This one is close by the projection (1.2 walks projected), but the +135 you can get on DraftKings makes it a profitable bet. And the model has been quite good on “unders” in this market.
Unlike the first two here, my personal confidence level is pretty low on this one. Pitchers are always trying to avoid the strike zone when Aaron Judge is up there, so walks come easily there (Judge has a 20% BB% vs. LHP the last two years). However, the intentional walks don’t count against us here. That helps.
I’m just going to trust the projection model here and take the +135 for less than one unit of betting.
Matt McLain Under 0.5 Hits
The Bat X and my model both agree on this one, giving this bet a 9% edge combined. It’s only because of the +195 return you can get on it on DraftKings.
McLain has been better lately, of course, but the price is all that matters.
Homer UNDERS
You have to go to MGM to bet these, but the model likes this trio of “no homer” bets tonight:
Christian Yelich -500
Eugenio Suarez -325
Edgar Quero -900
Steals Props
I repeat to you that this has been a good market for the model. We don’t hit them at a high rate, but the model is pretty good at picking out the misprices. Here are today’s qualifying bets:
Caleb Durbin +650
Daylen Lite +1100
Jacob Young +700
David Hamilton +300
That’s it for the props. I really want to get into this DFS slate.
DFS Preview
We have an eight-game Monday slate with no weather issues, besides it being really, really hot. We’ll have to be careful with the pitcher selections. We want to lean more into the great arms and the ground ball guys when we have temperatures and humidity like this. The ball is flying a long way.
I’ll be playing a cash lineup and a GPP tonight. I might even dig in for 50-100 lineups here to try to make something happen.
Pitchers
Bryan Woo ($9,600) vs. MIN: Few pitchers feel safer this year than Woo, especially as far is “limiting damage” goes. He’s just so hard to hit. The command is so good, the release point is so unique. The matchup here is fine against the Twins. They have Buxton swinging as good of a bat as he ever has, and some other competent bats behind him, but generally speaking, they aren’t a matchup to completely avoid. Woo’s given up 11 homers in his 14 starts. So he’s not perfect at this, but it’s not a horrible rate overall at 1.1 hR/9. He’s scored double-digit points in all but one start this year, and has been over 20 in eight of his 14 starts. The floor is the reason to play him, because I don’t particularly love the ceiling he offers for this particular price. But on a tough slate, he’s probably the best option for cash games.