MLB DW Slate Preview - June 25
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Player Props
Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts
It feels risky to bet on a 92 mile per hour fastball guy for strikeouts, but Lopez is no ordinary soft-tosser. The guy has 87 strikeouts in his 63 innings pitched this year. 27 of those innings have come in the minors, but if we throw those out you still have a 29.7% K% on the guy in his 36 big league innings. I’m doubting he can sustain a K% this high, but if he settles into 26-27%, the over 5.5 is a good line here against the Tigers.
This particular line curretly is +110 on DraftKings. You could also grab something a bit safer like over 4.5 strikeouts for -185.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeuots
The splitter is one of the pitches that is least effected by the thin air in Coors. I think Yamamoto’s game should play just fine here, and we know all about the Rockies propensity for strikeouts.
Yamamoto has made Coors start in his career. It was last September when he threw up five four-hit innings giving up just two runs while striking out six. He was limited that day as the Dodgers were coasting into the playoffs and he was still recovering from the injury that cost him so much time. He’s in good form this year, and the Rockies are in very bad form. I feel pretty good about the strikeouts here for Yamamoto.
Chase Dollander Under 2.5 Walks -125
This gives Dollander three options for winning this bet. He can walk none, one, or two. How’s that for an explanation you didn’t need! But the point is that you don’t often get an under 2.5 for this kind of price. Dollander hasn’t been good this year with a 6.19 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9. He’ll probaby get hit around tonight. But the one thing he isn’t completely hopeless at is limiting walks. His 9.9% BB% for the year is higher than you’d like, but this betting line would suggest he’s more of a 12% guy. He’s been under this mark in seven of his 12 starts this year.