MLB DW Slate Preview - June 27
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Projection-Powered Props
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts -145
The model is revved up on this Cease spot. He is the top projected arm on a pretty loaded slate. The projection is 8.4 strikeouts. And the advanced matchups model agrees. That model ranks the Reds as the worst offense on the board tonight when considering how their hitters perform against the type of stuff that Cease throws. This is pretty wild stuff.
It will be a good test of the stuff I’m doing here. Not that one outcome can ever tell you anything useful about a projection model.
There’s just a lot of swing-and-miss in this Reds lineup these days. And maybe the better point to make is that Cease has been really good under the hood. He’s at a 29.3% K%, a 17.1% SwStr%, and a 2.81 JA ERA on the year. He’s gotten double-digit whiffs in every start but one, averaging 16.2 whiffs per start. Those are incredible numbers. I can’t say for sure that he’ll keep the Reds off the board tonight. This game is in Cincy and it’s going to be 90 degrees, so there will likely be some long balls, but Cease is in a phenomenal strikeout spot.
Here’s the ladder:
→ 6 K -290
→ 7 K -145
→ 8 K +130
→ 9 K +240
→ 10 K +450
→ 11 K +850
→ 12 K +1700
Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 Steals +850
I’ve talked recently in the daily notes about the improvements we’ve seen from Durbin. He’s hitting the ball with much more authority while continuing to post a strong K%. That has him playing a lot more, and more playing time means more steals for the guy.
The Durbinator has swiped nine bags in 283 PAs this year with a 21% attempt rate.
The Brewers get the added benefit of facing the Rockies tonight. It’s not a Coors game, which hurts the projection a little bit, but the Rockies do not have pitchers that are good at keeping guys off the bases. I’m loving this price on a Durbin steal.
Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 Walks -180
The projection for Sugano against the Rays is 1.08 walks, and that turns this -180 price into one that is very advantageous.
Sugano has a 4.6% BB% this year; the Rays check in with a projected 7.7% BB% for their projected lineup tonight. I don’t think you’re getting multiple walks from Sugano tonight.
That’s all I’ve got props, I have to get the DFS preview going. But our boy Stu should be posting some picks this afternoon for you.
Here’s the full list of recommended props. This is available to paid subs every day. It slims down the list to only the prop types and bet values that have been profitable so far this year.
