MLB DW Slate Preview - June 30
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Projection-Powered Props
Strikeout Parlay
We want to get in on some Chase Burns action tonight, right? Since we have one start under his belt already, we can now use his pitch movement stuff in the advanced matchups model. And it’s looking very good. The Red Sox have a slate-high 17.6% SwStr% against the stuff they’ll see from their opposing starter. Burns is going to grab at least a handful of strikeouts pretty much any time he’s on the bump. His stuff is that good. There’s not a ton of value on his props, though, with the books being around a 6.5-strikeout projection on him. So let’s buy a safety net and team him up with the model’s actual favorite guy George Kirby.
Parlay it for -160
Chase Burns over 4.5 strikeouts -370
George Kirby over 3.5 strikeouts -330
One Walk Parlay
We have three guys projecting well above the what the book thinks here, so we can slap them together for one walk a piece and get close to even money. Here are your three names:
Logan Webb -245
Erick Fedde -575
Ryne Nelson -475
This gets you to -108. The biggest obstacle there is Logan Webb -245. His season walk rate sits at just 5.3%. He’s been at zero walks in 7 of his 17 starts, but this is not a matchup likely for that to happen in. The D’Backs have four guys in their projected lineup with double-digit walk rates. It’s a patient lineup. Fedde shouldn’t be a problem as he’s walked 38 in his 87.2 innings for a 10.2% BB%. He’s made just three starts without a walk this year in 16 tries. Ryne Nelson is working as a traditional starter now with Corbin Burnes gone. So he’s gone 5+ innings in three straight, and he’s walked six in that time.