MLB DW Slate Preview - June 9
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
I’m fully back and ready for a Monday slate of baseball, so let’s get deep into the thick of this thing.
Player Props
Mike Burrows Strikeout Overs
The projection model is high on Burrows in this spot. Or, at least, higher than the DraftKings model is. Burrows has made three MLB starts this year, and he’s coming off of his best work by far.
In that last outing, he struck out six Astros with a 14.3% SwStr%. For the season, his SwStr% is 12%, and that’s turned into a poor 18.6% K%.
The good with Burrows is the changeup. He’s thrown 67 of them this year and has a 26.9% SwStr% on the pitch with a 33% Ball%. It’s a really good pitch. His fastball has held him back thus far with a very poor 36% Strike% and a 6.3% SwStr%. It’s not a slow heater (94.8), so there’s some reason to think he can do better than this after he gets established.
The best line here seems to be over 4.5 strikeouts for +140. If you’re building a parlay around it, maybe you go for over 3.5 strikeouts for -160. Burrows has been under 3.5 strikeouts in two of his three, but he’s faced some solid opponents so far (MIL, ARI, HOU). This will be his easiest matchup of the season and it helps that he’s coming off of a start where he looked a lot better.
Addison Barger Over 0.5 Homers, +700
+700 for a guy with a 14.8% Brl% and a 21.7% K% feels pretty good to me. The catch is that the Blue Jays are up against the ground baller Andre Pallante.
And while Pallante has mostly kept the ball on the ground, he’s stlil given up a 1.5 HR/9 on the year. He’s given up three homers in his last two starts and five in his last five starts. He strikes out so few batters, that even a high GB% still turns into a handful of fly balls per game.
Barger matches up just fine here, and +700 just seems like a wrong price, and the model has picked that out.
Here are the rest of those recommended homer props:
Chris Sale Walks Overs
We have a couple of data points working on our favor here. First, the Brewers are a patient team with a 9% walk rate coming from their projected lineup tonight.
The second thing is that we haven’t seen Sale really looking to avoid the walk all of the time this year. His season ball rate is strong, but short of elite, at 33.3%. What is notable is that his ball rate has been way above that at 44.4% when he’s been behind in the count. That is the highest mark on the slate.
Admittedly, there’s some small sampling here. I just believe that Sale is confident enough in his abilities to not worry too much if he gives up a few walks. He’s not going to just lay a fastball in there down the pipe just because he’s down 3-1 in the count.
And that has turned into these walk totals in his last six starts: 4, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2.
Sale does not get taken out early. He’s gone at least six innings in 6 of his last 7. He’ll throw 90+ pitches in this game with almost certainty, and I think that will turn into 2+ walks against a patient Brewers lineup.
Chris Sale Over 1.5 Walks -120
Matt Olson for Extra Bases
Olson is my headline on the BOOM hitters today. He and the Braves get a matchup with Aaron Civale. Civale has generated a tiny 26.4% GB% this year. That’s the fourth-lowest in the league when filtering to at least four starts. It’s a small sample size on Civale to be sure, but this isn’t new for him. He’s been giving up homers at a high rate for awhile now. Dating back to last year, he’s made 35 starts and has given up 33 homers (1.7 HR/90.
The one thing Olson knows how to do is to hit the longball. He’s hit 10 this year against righties in 207 PAs, for a very strong 20.7 PA/HR. He’s slugged .457 with a .402 xwOBA.
There’s also a park boost here for Olson. Milwaukee is a better place for homers than Atlanta.
So we can go for Olson for a homer (+225), or take the safer option and just go for over 1.5 total bases (+110).
Let’s go for a little parlay action and see if we can find some Monday magic.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 TB
Chris Sale Over 1.5 BB
Mike Burrows Over 2.5 SO
Total: +299 on DraftKings
DFS Preview
Pitchers
Chris Sale ($10,000) vs. Brewers
Merrill Kelly ($8,500) vs. Mariners
Dustin May ($8,000) vs. Padres
Zack Wheeler ($10,500) vs. Cubs
It seems to be a night to go 100% Sale. He has the highest projection on the board with Wheeler and Pivetta up against the league’s top two offenses. He’s also $500 cheaper than Wheeler, which makes him the clear choice there.
I’m locking in Sale in every single lineup I play. That might just be one lineup tonight, I don’t know yet, but if I was playing 150 - I’d still go full Sale.
After Sale, I really can’t find another safe play when you consider the price. I do suppose Zack Wheeler can handle the Cubs, but it’s tough to pay $10,500 for a guy against the team allowing the fewer pitcher fantasy points in the league this year.
The model likes Yusei Kikuchi just fine, but it’s tough to click that button when you see that Kikuchi has an 8.8% K-BB% this year. He’s been extremely wild lately with 16.5% BB% in his last four starts. I’m not seeing much reason to risk it with Kikuchi even in the good matchup with the A’s.