MLB DW Slate Preview - May 19
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Covered a bunch of angles in the Money Matchups article, and I think Stu is gonna give us some more props today. So I’ll focus on the DFS slate for my part here.
Weather
Roth has this Guardians / Twins game in trouble, but the forecast I have says just a 17% chance of rain. So I don’t think we need to completely scratch that game off the slate. It probably makes sense to not play the pitchers since an in-game delay could end an outing early. So that drops my interest in Bailey Ober ($8,200) down a bit. But let’s just move forward assuming that the weather isn’t a consideration, and we’ll adjust closer to lock.
Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez ($8,000) vs. Rockies
I already went over this in that money matchups article. But to recap. Sanchez has a great strikeout rate and a great ground ball rate this year. Those are the two ways to beat Coors Field. Few pitchers are better equipped to succeed in Coors, so I wouldn’t downgrade Sanchez much at all. And the model doesn’t. It makes him the top overall pitcher on the slate tonight as well as the top value.
Kris Bubic ($9,700) vs. Giants
It’s a high price for Bubic. But there isn’t a standout SP2 play behind Sanchez, so that puts Bubic and his strong 19.3% K-BB% in play. Bubic has four games above six strikeouts, and he’s been under five strikeouts in just two of his nine starts.
The Giants are about a middle-of-the-pack lineup against lefties. They aren’t overly scary, but they also aren’t a lineup you’re loving to face. So I don’t know, I’m not thrilled with Bubic, but on this slate I can’t deny that he’s one of the better plays.
Sonny Gray ($9,000) vs. Tigers
Gray is coming off of a start where he gave up seven earned runs, and he’s coming into face a lineup that is now fourth in the league in runs scored.
Dodgers 272
Cubs 270
Yankees 266
Tigers 253
D’Backs 343
So yeah, Gray has a very low floor here. But what he also brings you is a high ceiling and (probably?) low ownership. Gray has a 24.8% K% and a 12% SwStr%. So he’s a long way from his highs of last year. But he has a way about him where he’ll lull you to sleep for a month and then come out and strike out 11. He had an eight-strikeout game just recently against the Pirates, and has a 22-whiff game under his belt this year as well. He’s not a safe play, but he’s someone I’d like to sprinkle into my tourney lineups. There are probably only a few guys here with 10+ strikeout upside, and I think Gray is one of them.