MLB DW Slate Preview - May 3rd
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Jon’s Full DFS Preview
I say “Jon’s” even though I’m the only one that writes here because so much of the stuff I do here is the result of a Python script. But this section is all me, baby. Not artificial intelligence, the real thing, although I’m not as sure about the intelligence part since my DFS record is pretty crappy this year… but don’t tell anybody that.
Weather
The games to worry about weather-wise are
Rockies at Pirates
Angels at Guardians
Orioles at Reds
The only one of those three that is on the main slate is the Cleveland game, so that makes it easier on us, and that’s the least-likely to be a problem anyway. So we’ll just move forward with no weather impact at all here.
Pitchers
Sonny Gray ($10,100) vs. White Sox: I do generally want to be on the fade side of Gray, but it’s hard to do today. He’s the top projected arm in this dream spot against the White Sox. He has an enormous chance of getting the win, and he’s pitched extremely well this year. The reason I want to be on the fade side is that I don’t expect him to be much more than a 25% K% pitcher, and that is typically not what we want from these five-figure salaries. I think he’s an obvious safety play, but I’d rather be under the field in GPPs given the perception of his ceiling is probably too high.
Tanner Houck ($8,100) vs. Twins: Minnesota has scored a ton of runs lately, but for the year they are still a middling matchup for pitchers in terms of scoring DraftKings points (24.2% team K%). Houck has pitched great this year with a 26.5% K% and 3.2% BB%, having gone above 25 DraftKings points in four of his six starts. I don’t love him given that I think this April performance was an over-performance (K% last two seasons = 22.7%), but he might be a bit under-owned here and the price tag is pretty nice.
Tanner Bibee ($8,500) vs. Angels: Two Tanners on the slate, how about that. Bibee got right last time out with nine strikeouts against the Braves, and now he gets this beat-down Angels lineup. He’s the top projected ownership pitcher, which takes off a lot of the GPP allure, but he’s a solid play.
Chris Paddack ($6,300) vs. Red Sox: He’s been bad this year but the 10 strikeout game is still there. He has the ability to have very good outings given the command he has, so at $6,300 I’d take a few shots.
JP Sears ($6.100) vs. Marlins: This is a really good price for Sears. The Marlins are pretty hapless right now and this game is in Oakland, which helps Sears out. The projection makes him the #2 value behind Paddack, so he’s a good punt option to include in the player pool.
Dylan Cease ($9,300) vs. Diamondbacks: I like Cease when he’ll be low-owned and don’t like him when he’ll be highly owned. It seems like the ownership will be in the middle somewhere tonight, so I don’t know what to do. The projection is pretty low given the price tag, so I guess I’d be more down on him.
George Kirby ($7,800) vs. Astros: Pitchers tend to project poorly against the Astros, and they are the second-toughest matchup in the league this year (to the Dodgers). But Kirby at $7,800 is pretty enticing given what he’s capable of.
So that’s my pool right now. There are no plays I’m really in love with here, so I’ll probably end up with a pretty even mix of those names, although seven is one or two more SPs than I typically want.
If I had to make a list of plays with everything considered:
Bibee
Gray
Sears
Kirby
Houck
Cease
Paddack
Team Offenses
We have a few really bad pitchers on the board
Brad Keller returns and takes on the Cardinals. He was completely unable to get anybody out last year so he was gone after just nine starts. He was insanely wild, that was his big problem, he had way more walks than strikes. I would guess he’ll be better than that this year, because it’s hard to be that bad, and the Cardinals haven’t really been an offense to stack this year, but they should have a lot of action on the base paths tonight.
Gavin Stone has been able to get whiffs (14.4% SwStr%), but clearly doesn’t have the best command. He’s given up a very high .494 SLG over the last two seasons and the K-BB% is just 15-10%.
I guess those are the two big strugglers here, some other guys that you can definitely rack up hits against:
Yankees vs. Reese Olson
Red Sox vs. Chris Paddack
Rangers vs. Brady Singer
By the implied totals, the best spots for runs:
Cardinals vs. Keller (5.6 runs)
Dodgers vs. Morton (4.9 runs)
Guardians vs. Soriano (4.9 runs)
Braves vs. Stone (4.9 runs)
I like to focus in on the top five in each lineup using the Team Hitting Projections tab on the dashboard:
I want to really focus in on some Yankees stacks if that ownership is going to be anywhere near accurate. If you sort by value:
The White Sox and Athletics show up here almost every time just because they are so, so cheap. That doesn’t ever mean they’re a good idea to play, but they do tend to give us guys hitting in the top three of the lineup for really cheap.
The offenses I’m most attacking:
Yankees vs. Olson
Judge $6,100
Soto $6,300
Volpe $4,700
Stanton $4,500
Torres $3,700
Cardinals vs. Keller
Donovan $4,300
Contreras $5,300
Nootbaar $4,100
Burleson $2,600
Gorman $3,900
Braves vs. Stone
Acuna $6,400
Albies $5,400
Riley $5,500
Olson $5,700
Ozuna $6,000
Harris $4,900
Athletics vs. Weathers
Ruiz $4,200
Nevin $2,600
Rooker $3,800
Langeliers $3,700
Favorite Plays by Position
Catcher
Contreras $5,300 vs. Keller
Garver $3,300 vs. Blanco
Raleigh $3,900 vs. Blanco
Langeliers $3,700 vs. Weathers
First Base
Burleson $2,600 vs. Keller
Ohtani $6,500 vs. Morton
Olson $5,700 vs. Stone
Naylor $5,000 vs. Soriano
Second Base
Gorman $3,900 vs. Keller
Donovan $4,300 vs. Keller
Betts $6,600 vs. Morton
Polanco $3,800 vs. Blanco
Schuemann $2,700 vs. Weathers
Third Base
Riley $5,500 vs. Stone
Rojas $3,200 vs. Blanco
Nevin $2,600 vs. Weathers
Devers $5,100 vs. Paddack
Shortstop
Witt $6,200 vs. Lorenzen
Betts $6,600 vs. Morton
Seager $5,700 vs. Singer
Volpe $4,00 vs. Olson
Hamilton $2,600 vs. Paddack
Hernaiz $2,000 vs. Weathers
Outfield
Nootbaar $4,100 vs. Keller
Soto $6,300 vs. Olson
Judge $6,400 vs. Olson
Acuna Jr. $6,400 vs. Stone
Ruiz $4,200 vs. Weathers
Ohtani $6,500 vs. Morton
Tatis Jr. $5,300 vs. Cecconi
Rooker $3,800 vs. Weathers
Burleson $2,600 vs. Keller
Rodriguez $5,100 vs. Blanco
Harris II $4,900 vs. Stone
McCarthy $3,700 vs. Cease
Abreu $3,800 vs. Paddack
JA Projection Optimal Lineup
SP1: Bibee $8,500
SP2: Paddack $6,300
C: Garver $3,300
1B: Burleson $2,600
2B: Donovan $4,300
3B: Nevin $2,600
SS: Betts $6,600
OF: Acuna $6,400
OF: Tatis $5,300
OF: Nootbaar $4,100
^ Not sure I’d actually play that, would probably make some manual edits, but that’s the current opto just to give you an idea.
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