Skill-wise there’s one pitcher well above the rest tonight, and that is Luis Castillo ($9,600) taking on the Twins. He’s not even the most expensive pitcher, strangely, as Mitch Keller is at $9,700.
Cole Ragans is cheap at $8,800 against the Brewers. They have been a rough matchup this year for pitchers, but Ragans is extremely good so I am plenty interested in him there. The pool of pitchers I’m clicking on tonight is pretty small
Luis Castillo ($9,600) vs. MIN
Cole Ragans ($8,800) vs. MIL
Andrew Heaney ($6,600) vs. OAK
Tyler Alexander ($6,500) vs. CWS
Alex Wood ($5,500) vs. TEX
I don’t want to play Andrew Heaney or Alex Wood, but they shouldn’t be that cheap, right? The Dodgers are at home up against the Marlins, so we want some Dodgers stacks and plugging in a sub-$7,000 pitcher would certainly help with that.
Dodgers vs. Munoz
Rays vs. Clevinger
Royals vs. Wilson
Cardinals vs. Manaea
Mariners vs. Woods Richardson
Some cheaper options:
The hardest part about playing DFS tournaments is knowing when to go with the chalk and when to fade it. Tonight it’s insanely clear that the ownership is going to be really high on the Dodgers against Munoz. They project way, way above everyone else. So do you just lean into it and hope they smash as projected and that you luck into the right combination? Or do you just play the angle that they disappoint and you focus on stacking up offenses that nobody else goes after?
I think I might try the Dodgers fade, why not. That means I’m concentrating my hitter picks on Mets, Royals, and Cardinals. Why those three? Because they are the 2-4 projected offenses (looking at just the 1-5 hitters for stacking purposes) with the much lower ownership.
The model is pretty slow to change projections on guys just because of a month of better/worse performance, and we see that with the Jack Flaherty prop bet tonight. Here are the current recommended bets:
Flaherty is fresh off a 14-strikeout game, so projecting less than 5.5 would seem crazy. But we can ignore the recency bias, realize that the Guardians don’t strike out much, and feel pretty good about this one.
You don’t see many 7.5 lines here where the under is affordable like -120, so I’d like that one as well. The model is also projecting a better K% for Keller than what he’s shown this year, and I think that’s correct as well.
So let’s take those three and pick one homer bet to make our daily $3 lotto play of the night:
Overall that’s not quite as long-shotty as what I’ve been doing, but it’s 50:1 so that’s fun enough.
LAD (vs. Roddery Munoz): 81.16 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Mason Black): 67.61 Projected Points
TB (vs. Mike Clevinger): 67.41 Projected Points
KC (vs. Bryse Wilson): 67.38 Projected Points
STL (vs. Sean Manaea): 67.07 Projected Points
DET (vs. Triston McKenzie): 56.23 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Cole Ragans): 58.89 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Tyler Alexander): 58.98 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Luis Castillo): 59.79 Projected Points
SF (vs. Zack Wheeler): 59.87 Projected Points
LAD: 81.16 Today, 67.87 Season Average
TB: 67.41 Today, 63.77 Season Average
KC: 67.38 Today, 64.23 Season Average
OAK: 59.9 Today, 57.11 Season Average
CHC: 65.84 Today, 63.86 Season Average
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Joey Bart: 5.92 Today, 5.85 Previous Max
Luis Castillo $9600 vs. MIN: 19.54 points
Mitch Keller $9700 vs. LAA: 18.54 points
Yu Darvish $8400 vs. CHC: 15.84 points
Andrew Heaney $6600 vs. OAK: 15.83 points
Andrew Heaney $6600 vs. OAK: 15.83 points, 2.4 value
Tyler Alexander $6500 vs. CWS: 13.46 points, 2.07 value
Alex Wood $5500 vs. TEX: 11.38 points, 2.07 value
Luis Castillo $9600 vs. MIN: 19.54 points, 2.04 value
Mitch Keller $9700 vs. LAA: 18.54 points, 1.91 value
1. Will Smith ($5100) vs. Roddery Munoz: 9.09 points, 1.24 score
2. Cal Raleigh ($4000) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson: 8.15 points, 1.23 score
3. Willson Contreras ($5600) vs. Sean Manaea: 8.99 points, 1.17 score
4. Gary Sanchez ($3100) vs. Cole Ragans: 7.14 points, 1.14 score
5. Mitch Garver ($3400) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson: 7.02 points, 1.1 score
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6500) vs. Roddery Munoz: 11.69 points, 1.48 score
2. Freddie Freeman ($5800) vs. Roddery Munoz: 10.08 points, 1.29 score
3. Paul Goldschmidt ($4900) vs. Sean Manaea: 8.66 points, 1.15 score
4. Vinnie Pasquantino ($4500) vs. Bryse Wilson: 8.41 points, 1.12 score
5. Andrew Vaughn ($2800) vs. Tyler Alexander: 7.13 points, 1.11 score
1. Mookie Betts ($6400) vs. Roddery Munoz: 10.98 points, 1.41 score
2. Jorge Polanco ($3900) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson: 8.45 points, 1.27 score
3. Brandon Drury ($3600) vs. Mitch Keller: 6.83 points, 1.05 score
4. Marcus Semien ($5500) vs. Alex Wood: 8.1 points, 1.04 score
5. Bryan Ramos ($2000) vs. Tyler Alexander: 6.16 points, 1.02 score
1. Max Muncy ($4600) vs. Roddery Munoz: 8.56 points, 1.2 score
2. Manny Machado ($4800) vs. Justin Steele: 8.02 points, 1.14 score
3. Josh Rojas ($3400) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson: 7.54 points, 1.14 score
4. Christopher Morel ($4500) vs. Yu Darvish: 8.2 points, 1.12 score
5. Maikel Garcia ($4700) vs. Bryse Wilson: 8.55 points, 1.11 score
1. Mookie Betts ($6400) vs. Roddery Munoz: 10.98 points, 1.41 score
2. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6200) vs. Bryse Wilson: 10.67 points, 1.36 score
3. Francisco Lindor ($5000) vs. Kyle Gibson: 8.62 points, 1.18 score
4. Corey Seager ($5400) vs. Alex Wood: 8.13 points, 1.05 score
5. Dansby Swanson ($4000) vs. Yu Darvish: 7.23 points, 0.99 score
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6500) vs. Roddery Munoz: 11.69 points, 1.48 score
2. Julio Rodriguez ($5000) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson: 9.54 points, 1.31 score
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5100) vs. Justin Steele: 8.87 points, 1.25 score
4. Teoscar Hernandez ($4900) vs. Roddery Munoz: 8.59 points, 1.2 score
5. Dylan Carlson ($2400) vs. Sean Manaea: 7.02 points, 1.19 score
6. Tommy Pham ($3800) vs. Tyler Alexander: 8.16 points, 1.19 score
7. Jazz Chisholm ($5300) vs. Walker Buehler: 9.23 points, 1.18 score
8. Esteury Ruiz ($4300) vs. Andrew Heaney: 8.55 points, 1.17 score
9. James Outman ($3200) vs. Roddery Munoz: 7.55 points, 1.15 score
10. Starling Marte ($4400) vs. Kyle Gibson: 8.36 points, 1.14 score
11. Josh Lowe ($4500) vs. Mike Clevinger: 8.45 points, 1.13 score
12. Jonny Deluca ($2500) vs. Mike Clevinger: 6.94 points, 1.12 score
13. Bryan De La Cruz ($3800) vs. Walker Buehler: 8.09 points, 1.1 score
14. Robbie Grossman ($2600) vs. Tyler Alexander: 6.87 points, 1.1 score
15. Brendan Donovan ($4300) vs. Sean Manaea: 8.23 points, 1.1 score
PHI 4.61 - SF 3.92
PHI 54.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.53
Zack Wheeler: 7 GS, 704 Pitches, 30.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 15.1 SwStr%, 51.6 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 50.0 GB%, 6 Brl%
No MLB data available for Mason Black
Zack Wheeler (PHI): 98 Pitches 5.74 IP, 5.4 H, 2.6 ER, 6.2 K, 1.5 BB, 17.34 FPts
Mason Black (SF): 74 Pitches 4.56 IP, 4.2 H, 2.3 ER, 4.5 K, 2.0 BB, 11.64 FPts
Zack Wheeler - 7.5 strikeouts
Mason Black - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Jung Hoo Lee: 4.51 PA, 1.26 H, 1.82 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.19 FPts
2. Thairo Estrada: 4.39 PA, 1.02 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.13 FPts
3. LaMonte Wade Jr.: 4.05 PA, 0.86 H, 1.48 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.17 FPts
4. Wilmer Flores: 4.17 PA, 0.93 H, 1.56 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.93 FPts
5. Michael Conforto: 3.95 PA, 0.87 H, 1.47 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.64 FPts
6. Matt Chapman: 3.97 PA, 0.81 H, 1.53 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.72 FPts
7. Mike Yastrzemski: 3.64 PA, 0.72 H, 1.33 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.95 FPts
8. Tyler Fitzgerald: 3.67 PA, 0.7 H, 1.12 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.14 SB, 5.6 FPts
9. Jakson Reetz: 3.53 PA, 0.7 H, 1.22 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.54 FPts
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.55 PA, 0.79 H, 1.73 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.11 FPts
2. J.T. Realmuto: 4.42 PA, 1.03 H, 1.8 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.32 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.29 PA, 1.0 H, 1.79 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.2 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 4.23 PA, 1.03 H, 1.56 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.24 FPts
5. Brandon Marsh: 4.04 PA, 0.88 H, 1.43 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.34 FPts
6. Nick Castellanos: 4.01 PA, 0.9 H, 1.51 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.63 FPts
7. Bryson Stott: 3.91 PA, 0.94 H, 1.41 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.16 FPts
8. Whit Merrifield: 3.72 PA, 0.83 H, 1.15 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.08 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.45 PA, 0.84 H, 1.15 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.53 FPts
Zack Wheeler PHI - Strikeouts Under 7.5 (-120) - 0.178 value
Jung Hoo Lee SF - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+105) - 0.143 value
Game not on slate
CLE 4.08 - DET 3.44
CLE 54.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.0
Projected Total: 7.52
Jack Flaherty: 6 GS, 568 Pitches, 34.0 K%, 3.4 BB%, 17.8 SwStr%, 51.2 Strike%, 33.1 Ball%, 44.9 GB%, 7 Brl%
Triston McKenzie: 6 GS, 498 Pitches, 18.8 K%, 14.1 BB%, 10.2 SwStr%, 43.0 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%, 33.7 GB%, 8 Brl%
Jack Flaherty (DET): 93 Pitches 5.62 IP, 5.7 H, 2.7 ER, 4.4 K, 2.0 BB, 12.12 FPts
Triston McKenzie (CLE): 83 Pitches 5.07 IP, 4.5 H, 2.3 ER, 4.1 K, 2.6 BB, 11.78 FPts
Jack Flaherty - 5.5 strikeouts
Triston McKenzie - 5.5 strikeouts
1. Riley Greene: 4.24 PA, 0.95 H, 1.62 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.66 FPts
2. Mark Canha: 4.11 PA, 0.85 H, 1.32 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.78 FPts
3. Wenceel Perez: 4.08 PA, 0.82 H, 1.27 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.88 FPts
4. Kerry Carpenter: 3.8 PA, 0.92 H, 1.62 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.99 FPts
5. Matt Vierling: 3.79 PA, 0.84 H, 1.29 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.84 FPts
6. Colt Keith: 3.55 PA, 0.78 H, 1.33 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.08 FPts
7. Spencer Torkelson: 3.66 PA, 0.74 H, 1.34 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.18 FPts
8. Zach McKinstry: 3.36 PA, 0.64 H, 1.01 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.2 FPts
9. Carson Kelly: 3.17 PA, 0.63 H, 1.0 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.62 FPts
1. Estevan Florial: 4.48 PA, 0.75 H, 1.22 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.8 FPts
2. Andres Gimenez: 4.48 PA, 1.09 H, 1.68 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.12 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.4 PA, 1.12 H, 1.88 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.88 FPts
4. Josh Naylor: 4.31 PA, 1.17 H, 1.99 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.64 FPts
5. Will Brennan: 4.05 PA, 1.08 H, 1.55 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.97 FPts
6. Bo Naylor: 3.99 PA, 0.7 H, 1.19 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.19 FPts
7. Tyler Freeman: 3.78 PA, 0.85 H, 1.27 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.49 FPts
8. Kyle Manzardo: 3.84 PA, 0.81 H, 1.41 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.48 FPts
9. Brayan Rocchio: 3.62 PA, 0.78 H, 1.15 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.8 FPts
Jack Flaherty DET - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-105) - 0.21 value
Triston McKenzie CLE - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-155) - 0.168 value
Matt Vierling DET - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+210) - 0.149 value
Spencer Torkelson DET - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-185) - 0.145 value
Mark Canha DET - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+160) - 0.132 value
Colt Keith DET - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+130) - 0.119 value
Zach McKinstry DET - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+175) - 0.118 value
Tyler Freeman CLE - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+125) - 0.105 value
Game not on slate
PIT 4.14 - LAA 3.88
PIT 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.02
Mitch Keller: 7 GS, 650 Pitches, 21.8 K%, 8.4 BB%, 10.2 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%, 38.0 GB%, 9 Brl%
Tyler Anderson: 6 GS, 559 Pitches, 18.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 13.8 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%, 35.9 GB%, 11 Brl%
Mitch Keller (PIT): 97 Pitches 6.42 IP, 6.1 H, 3.0 ER, 6.9 K, 1.9 BB, 18.54 FPts
Tyler Anderson (LAA): 92 Pitches 5.71 IP, 5.4 H, 2.7 ER, 5.1 K, 2.3 BB, 13.69 FPts
Mitch Keller - 5.5 strikeouts
Tyler Anderson - 5.5 strikeouts
1. Nolan Schanuel: 4.31 PA, 0.98 H, 1.36 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.29 FPts
2. Mickey Moniak: 4.12 PA, 0.87 H, 1.52 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.44 FPts
3. Taylor Ward: 4.25 PA, 0.99 H, 1.7 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.84 FPts
4. Willie Calhoun: 3.97 PA, 0.92 H, 1.36 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.76 FPts
5. Brandon Drury: 4.03 PA, 0.95 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.83 FPts
6. Logan O'Hoppe: 3.91 PA, 0.93 H, 1.75 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.35 FPts
7. Jo Adell: 3.75 PA, 0.74 H, 1.27 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 5.86 FPts
8. Ehire Adrianza: 3.72 PA, 0.71 H, 1.02 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.39 FPts
9. Zach Neto: 3.42 PA, 0.77 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.12 FPts
1. Andrew McCutchen: 4.42 PA, 0.87 H, 1.41 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.77 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.31 PA, 1.05 H, 1.78 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.27 FPts
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.22 PA, 1.04 H, 1.57 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.16 FPts
4. Connor Joe: 4.11 PA, 0.92 H, 1.47 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.52 FPts
5. Edward Olivares: 3.99 PA, 0.96 H, 1.66 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.54 FPts
6. Joey Bart: 3.73 PA, 0.75 H, 1.24 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.92 FPts
7. Oneil Cruz: 3.8 PA, 0.76 H, 1.28 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.26 FPts
8. Jared Triolo: 3.67 PA, 0.81 H, 1.15 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.31 FPts
9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.23 PA, 0.68 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.69 FPts
Mitch Keller PIT - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (-105) - 0.176 value
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) OF $4800: 8.27 Proj, 1.09 Score
Willie Calhoun (LAA) OF $2500: 6.76 Proj, 1.07 Score
Brandon Drury (LAA) 2B $3600: 6.83 Proj, 1.05 Score
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) OF $4200: 7.77 Proj, 1.05 Score
Taylor Ward (LAA) OF $5300: 7.84 Proj, 1.03 Score
TB 4.62 - CWS 3.62
TB 56.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.24
Tyler Alexander: 3 GS, 481 Pitches, 18.4 K%, 7.2 BB%, 9.4 SwStr%, 48.9 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%, 27.2 GB%, 9 Brl%
No MLB data available for Mike Clevinger
Tyler Alexander (TB): 84 Pitches 5.39 IP, 5.4 H, 2.5 ER, 4.4 K, 1.2 BB, 13.46 FPts
Mike Clevinger (CWS): 86 Pitches 5.51 IP, 5.1 H, 2.6 ER, 4.8 K, 1.8 BB, 13.2 FPts
Tyler Alexander - Prop Not Found
Mike Clevinger - Prop Not Found
1. Robbie Grossman: 4.26 PA, 0.91 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.87 FPts
2. Tommy Pham: 4.19 PA, 1.0 H, 1.77 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.16 FPts
3. Andrew Vaughn: 4.2 PA, 1.02 H, 1.73 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.13 FPts
4. Eloy Jimenez: 4.1 PA, 1.05 H, 1.83 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.4 FPts
5. Andrew Benintendi: 3.98 PA, 0.99 H, 1.38 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.13 FPts
6. Paul DeJong: 3.8 PA, 0.78 H, 1.41 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.87 FPts
7. Korey Lee: 3.69 PA, 0.69 H, 1.13 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.19 FPts
8. Bryan Ramos: 3.68 PA, 0.82 H, 1.37 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.16 FPts
9. Braden Shewmake: 3.46 PA, 0.79 H, 1.28 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.07 FPts
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.44 PA, 1.07 H, 1.68 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.99 FPts
2. Richie Palacios: 4.25 PA, 1.01 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.84 FPts
3. Isaac Paredes: 4.25 PA, 0.91 H, 1.66 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.8 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.22 PA, 0.93 H, 1.62 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.25 FPts
5. Josh Lowe: 4.02 PA, 1.0 H, 1.74 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.45 FPts
6. Jose Caballero: 3.89 PA, 0.85 H, 1.29 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.25 SB, 7.41 FPts
7. Ben Rortvedt: 3.56 PA, 0.69 H, 1.11 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.52 FPts
8. Jonny Deluca: 3.77 PA, 0.85 H, 1.4 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.94 FPts
9. Jose Siri: 3.49 PA, 0.76 H, 1.5 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.21 FPts
Richie Palacios TB - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+145) - 0.109 value
Tommy Pham (CWS) OF $3800: 8.16 Proj, 1.19 Score
Josh Lowe (TB) OF $4500: 8.45 Proj, 1.13 Score
Jonny Deluca (TB) OF $2500: 6.94 Proj, 1.12 Score
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) 1B $2800: 7.13 Proj, 1.11 Score
Robbie Grossman (CWS) OF $2600: 6.87 Proj, 1.1 Score
KC 4.61 - MIL 3.74
KC 55.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.35
Cole Ragans: 7 GS, 626 Pitches, 29.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 15.3 SwStr%, 49.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%, 41.4 GB%, 5 Brl%
Bryse Wilson: 3 GS, 365 Pitches, 22.6 K%, 7.5 BB%, 9.3 SwStr%, 48.2 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 39.1 GB%, 8 Brl%
Cole Ragans (KC): 90 Pitches 5.52 IP, 5.0 H, 2.7 ER, 5.5 K, 2.3 BB, 14.94 FPts
Bryse Wilson (MIL): 83 Pitches 5.18 IP, 6.1 H, 3.0 ER, 3.5 K, 1.3 BB, 9.14 FPts
Cole Ragans - 6.5 strikeouts
Bryse Wilson - 3.5 strikeouts
1. William Contreras: 4.38 PA, 1.06 H, 1.8 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.28 FPts
2. Rhys Hoskins: 4.25 PA, 0.87 H, 1.62 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.48 FPts
3. Gary Sanchez: 4.08 PA, 0.81 H, 1.6 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.14 FPts
4. Willy Adames: 4.04 PA, 0.78 H, 1.42 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.73 FPts
5. Blake Perkins: 3.83 PA, 0.72 H, 1.11 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.14 FPts
6. Joey Ortiz: 3.44 PA, 0.78 H, 1.17 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.87 FPts
7. Brice Turang: 3.63 PA, 0.8 H, 1.11 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.35 FPts
8. Jackson Chourio: 3.38 PA, 0.67 H, 1.09 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.13 SB, 5.38 FPts
9. Sal Frelick: 3.34 PA, 0.73 H, 0.96 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.13 SB, 5.52 FPts
1. Maikel Garcia: 4.37 PA, 1.15 H, 1.77 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.55 FPts
2. Bobby Witt Jr.: 4.3 PA, 1.25 H, 2.3 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.23 SB, 10.67 FPts
3. Vinnie Pasquantino: 4.19 PA, 1.09 H, 1.81 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.41 FPts
4. Salvador Perez: 4.05 PA, 1.06 H, 1.9 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.62 FPts
5. Michael Massey: 3.88 PA, 0.91 H, 1.44 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.29 FPts
6. Nelson Velazquez: 3.78 PA, 0.83 H, 1.72 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.47 FPts
7. MJ Melendez: 3.74 PA, 0.85 H, 1.52 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.01 FPts
8. Hunter Renfroe: 3.62 PA, 0.81 H, 1.36 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.79 FPts
9. Kyle Isbel: 3.32 PA, 0.78 H, 1.21 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.57 FPts
Cole Ragans KC - Strikeouts Under 6.5 (+105) - 0.196 value
Joey Ortiz MIL - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+185) - 0.161 value
Cole Ragans KC - Pitcher Hits Over 4.5 (+115) - 0.103 value
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) SS $6200: 10.67 Proj, 1.36 Score
Gary Sanchez (MIL) C $3100: 7.14 Proj, 1.14 Score
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 1B $4500: 8.41 Proj, 1.12 Score
Maikel Garcia (KC) 3B $4700: 8.55 Proj, 1.11 Score
Nelson Velazquez (KC) OF $3800: 7.47 Proj, 1.09 Score
SEA 4.68 - MIN 3.84
SEA 54.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.52
Luis Castillo: 7 GS, 695 Pitches, 28.8 K%, 4.1 BB%, 15.1 SwStr%, 51.4 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%, 37.7 GB%, 7 Brl%
Simeon Woods Richardson: 3 GS, 255 Pitches, 20.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 8.2 SwStr%, 48.6 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%, 34.8 GB%, 9 Brl%
Luis Castillo (SEA): 97 Pitches 5.89 IP, 4.9 H, 2.4 ER, 7.2 K, 2.1 BB, 19.54 FPts
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 84 Pitches 4.72 IP, 4.6 H, 2.4 ER, 5.0 K, 1.7 BB, 13.01 FPts
Luis Castillo - 6.5 strikeouts
Simeon Woods Richardson - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Josh Rojas: 4.22 PA, 0.98 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.54 FPts
2. Julio Rodriguez: 4.42 PA, 1.15 H, 2.11 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.54 FPts
3. Jorge Polanco: 4.31 PA, 0.89 H, 1.68 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.45 FPts
4. Mitch Haniger: 4.11 PA, 0.86 H, 1.58 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.04 FPts
5. Cal Raleigh: 4.13 PA, 0.9 H, 1.85 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.15 FPts
6. Ty France: 4.01 PA, 1.0 H, 1.56 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.89 FPts
7. Mitch Garver: 3.92 PA, 0.8 H, 1.54 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.02 FPts
8. Luke Raley: 3.59 PA, 0.75 H, 1.35 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.51 FPts
9. Dylan Moore: 3.32 PA, 0.57 H, 1.01 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.67 FPts
1. Alex Kirilloff: 4.31 PA, 0.99 H, 1.56 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.99 FPts
2. Edouard Julien: 4.23 PA, 0.75 H, 1.34 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.19 FPts
3. Ryan Jeffers: 4.35 PA, 0.91 H, 1.6 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.23 FPts
4. Max Kepler: 4.14 PA, 0.93 H, 1.66 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.48 FPts
5. Carlos Correa: 4.08 PA, 0.9 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.8 FPts
6. Trevor Larnach: 3.82 PA, 0.76 H, 1.36 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.41 FPts
7. Carlos Santana: 3.94 PA, 0.79 H, 1.32 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.32 FPts
8. Willi Castro: 3.81 PA, 0.8 H, 1.24 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.38 FPts
9. Christian Vazquez: 3.5 PA, 0.77 H, 1.13 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.99 FPts
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) OF $5000: 9.54 Proj, 1.31 Score
Jorge Polanco (SEA) 2B $3900: 8.45 Proj, 1.27 Score
Cal Raleigh (SEA) C $4000: 8.15 Proj, 1.23 Score
Josh Rojas (SEA) 3B $3400: 7.54 Proj, 1.14 Score
Mitch Garver (SEA) C $3400: 7.02 Proj, 1.1 Score
CHC 4.54 - SD 4.28
CHC 51.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.82
Yu Darvish: 6 GS, 459 Pitches, 21.2 K%, 7.6 BB%, 10.9 SwStr%, 47.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%, 38.6 GB%, 5 Brl%
Justin Steele: 1 GS, 67 Pitches, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 14.9 SwStr%, 55.2 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%, 45.5 GB%, 0 Brl%
Yu Darvish (SD): 85 Pitches 5.31 IP, 4.7 H, 2.5 ER, 5.9 K, 1.8 BB, 15.84 FPts
Justin Steele (CHC): 78 Pitches 4.88 IP, 5.1 H, 2.2 ER, 3.9 K, 1.3 BB, 11.58 FPts
Yu Darvish - 5.5 strikeouts
Justin Steele - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Luis Arraez: 4.54 PA, 1.27 H, 1.67 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.28 FPts
2. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.47 PA, 1.05 H, 1.82 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.87 FPts
3. Jake Cronenworth: 4.4 PA, 0.96 H, 1.5 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.15 FPts
4. Manny Machado: 4.29 PA, 1.01 H, 1.78 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.02 FPts
5. Jurickson Profar: 4.1 PA, 0.92 H, 1.34 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.66 FPts
6. Xander Bogaerts: 4.07 PA, 0.97 H, 1.46 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.21 FPts
7. Luis Campusano: 3.94 PA, 1.06 H, 1.63 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.64 FPts
8. Ha-Seong Kim: 3.79 PA, 0.81 H, 1.22 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.03 FPts
9. Jose Azocar: 3.3 PA, 0.79 H, 1.13 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.17 SB, 5.81 FPts
1. Nico Hoerner: 4.48 PA, 1.1 H, 1.52 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.85 FPts
2. Mike Tauchman: 4.29 PA, 0.93 H, 1.48 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.23 FPts
3. Ian Happ: 4.26 PA, 0.9 H, 1.51 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.92 FPts
4. Christopher Morel: 4.12 PA, 0.89 H, 1.72 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.2 FPts
5. Michael Busch: 4.05 PA, 0.78 H, 1.48 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.0 FPts
6. Dansby Swanson: 3.96 PA, 0.88 H, 1.52 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.23 FPts
7. Patrick Wisdom: 3.53 PA, 0.68 H, 1.53 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.86 FPts
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong: 3.76 PA, 0.86 H, 1.59 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.18 SB, 7.45 FPts
9. Yan Gomes: 3.44 PA, 0.76 H, 1.19 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.1 FPts
Justin Steele CHC - Pitcher Hits Over 4.5 (+125) - 0.136 value
Luis Arraez SD - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-135) - 0.11 value
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) OF $5100: 8.87 Proj, 1.25 Score
Manny Machado (SD) 3B $4800: 8.02 Proj, 1.14 Score
Christopher Morel (CHC) 3B $4500: 8.2 Proj, 1.12 Score
Mike Tauchman (CHC) OF $4200: 8.23 Proj, 1.09 Score
Nico Hoerner (CHC) 2B $4400: 7.85 Proj, 1.02 Score
STL 4.68 - NYM 4.44
STL 51.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 9.12
Kyle Gibson: 6 GS, 558 Pitches, 19.1 K%, 9.2 BB%, 10.6 SwStr%, 39.6 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%, 49.1 GB%, 11 Brl%
Sean Manaea: 6 GS, 547 Pitches, 23.4 K%, 14.1 BB%, 13.7 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%, 32.1 GB%, 8 Brl%
Kyle Gibson (STL): 93 Pitches 6.03 IP, 6.4 H, 3.0 ER, 4.5 K, 1.8 BB, 12.85 FPts
Sean Manaea (NYM): 84 Pitches 4.74 IP, 4.6 H, 2.3 ER, 3.9 K, 2.1 BB, 10.63 FPts
Kyle Gibson - 4.5 strikeouts
Sean Manaea - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Brandon Nimmo: 4.6 PA, 1.09 H, 1.77 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.49 FPts
2. Starling Marte: 4.46 PA, 1.14 H, 1.71 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.36 FPts
3. Francisco Lindor: 4.39 PA, 1.01 H, 1.73 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.62 FPts
4. Pete Alonso: 4.32 PA, 0.99 H, 1.98 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.73 FPts
5. J.D. Martinez: 4.14 PA, 0.93 H, 1.71 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.36 FPts
6. Jeff McNeil: 4.1 PA, 1.05 H, 1.39 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.56 FPts
7. Tyrone Taylor: 3.82 PA, 0.85 H, 1.47 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.52 FPts
8. Brett Baty: 3.79 PA, 0.84 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.0 FPts
9. Omar Narvaez: 3.34 PA, 0.71 H, 1.06 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.97 FPts
1. Brendan Donovan: 4.57 PA, 1.09 H, 1.61 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.23 FPts
2. Willson Contreras: 4.44 PA, 0.97 H, 1.82 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.99 FPts
3. Paul Goldschmidt: 4.32 PA, 0.97 H, 1.7 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.66 FPts
4. Nolan Arenado: 4.23 PA, 1.06 H, 1.77 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.03 FPts
5. Dylan Carlson: 4.07 PA, 0.88 H, 1.36 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.02 FPts
6. Ivan Herrera: 4.01 PA, 0.84 H, 1.4 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.92 FPts
7. Masyn Winn: 3.93 PA, 0.81 H, 1.09 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.17 FPts
8. Jose Fermin: 3.83 PA, 0.83 H, 1.27 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.65 FPts
9. Lars Nootbaar: 3.55 PA, 0.68 H, 1.11 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.4 FPts
Sean Manaea NYM - Pitcher Outs Under 16.5 (-145) - 0.146 value
Sean Manaea NYM - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (-115) - 0.115 value
Dylan Carlson (STL) OF $2400: 7.02 Proj, 1.19 Score
Francisco Lindor (NYM) SS $5000: 8.62 Proj, 1.18 Score
Willson Contreras (STL) C $5600: 8.99 Proj, 1.17 Score
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 1B $4900: 8.66 Proj, 1.15 Score
Starling Marte (NYM) OF $4400: 8.36 Proj, 1.14 Score
TEX 4.24 - OAK 3.84
TEX 52.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.08
Andrew Heaney: 6 GS, 494 Pitches, 20.8 K%, 7.2 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 47.8 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%, 35.6 GB%, 9 Brl%
Alex Wood: 7 GS, 618 Pitches, 19.1 K%, 10.5 BB%, 9.1 SwStr%, 44.3 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%, 35.3 GB%, 8 Brl%
Andrew Heaney (TEX): 87 Pitches 5.13 IP, 4.3 H, 2.3 ER, 5.8 K, 1.6 BB, 15.83 FPts
Alex Wood (OAK): 87 Pitches 5.18 IP, 5.2 H, 2.5 ER, 4.2 K, 2.1 BB, 11.38 FPts
Andrew Heaney - 5.5 strikeouts
Alex Wood - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Marcus Semien: 4.44 PA, 1.06 H, 1.72 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.1 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.33 PA, 1.08 H, 1.89 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.13 FPts
3. Nathaniel Lowe: 4.25 PA, 1.0 H, 1.48 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.43 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.12 PA, 0.88 H, 1.64 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.0 FPts
5. Jonah Heim: 4.0 PA, 0.9 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.66 FPts
6. Josh Smith: 3.75 PA, 0.78 H, 1.22 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.28 FPts
7. Ezequiel Duran: 3.66 PA, 0.84 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.22 FPts
8. Evan Carter: 3.66 PA, 0.69 H, 1.1 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.99 FPts
9. Leody Taveras: 3.48 PA, 0.8 H, 1.15 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.69 FPts
1. Esteury Ruiz: 4.45 PA, 1.04 H, 1.56 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.35 SB, 8.55 FPts
2. Tyler Nevin: 4.07 PA, 0.86 H, 1.32 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.39 FPts
3. Abraham Toro: 4.04 PA, 0.87 H, 1.44 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.41 FPts
4. Brent Rooker: 4.1 PA, 0.84 H, 1.67 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.7 FPts
5. J.D. Davis: 4.01 PA, 0.84 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.62 FPts
6. Shea Langeliers: 4.01 PA, 0.76 H, 1.47 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.27 FPts
7. Max Schuemann: 3.91 PA, 0.79 H, 1.27 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.65 FPts
8. Darell Hernaiz: 3.55 PA, 0.71 H, 1.09 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.42 FPts
9. Brett Harris: 3.56 PA, 0.71 H, 1.14 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.89 FPts
Brett Harris OAK - Hitter BB Over 0.5 (+340) - 0.129 value
Corey Seager TEX - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+190) - 0.123 value
Max Schuemann OAK - Hitter BB Over 0.5 (+330) - 0.103 value
Esteury Ruiz (OAK) OF $4300: 8.55 Proj, 1.17 Score
Brent Rooker (OAK) OF $4000: 7.7 Proj, 1.08 Score
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $5400: 8.13 Proj, 1.05 Score
Marcus Semien (TEX) 2B $5500: 8.1 Proj, 1.04 Score
Adolis Garcia (TEX) OF $5900: 8.0 Proj, 1.0 Score
LAD 6.48 - MIA 4.06
LAD 61.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 10.54
No MLB data available for Walker Buehler
Roddery Munoz: 2 GS, 159 Pitches, 34.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 49.7 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%, 41.7 GB%, 17 Brl%
Roddery Munoz (MIA): 76 Pitches 4.51 IP, 4.3 H, 2.6 ER, 4.0 K, 2.7 BB, 9.46 FPts
Walker Buehler - 5.5 strikeouts
Roddery Munoz - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Jazz Chisholm: 4.49 PA, 0.98 H, 1.83 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.2 SB, 9.23 FPts
2. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.53 PA, 1.08 H, 1.89 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.09 FPts
3. Josh Bell: 4.44 PA, 0.95 H, 1.63 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.77 FPts
4. Jesus Sanchez: 4.13 PA, 0.89 H, 1.55 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.72 FPts
5. Tim Anderson: 4.14 PA, 0.99 H, 1.36 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.52 FPts
6. Nick Gordon: 3.84 PA, 0.92 H, 1.45 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.7 FPts
7. Vidal Brujan: 3.83 PA, 0.67 H, 0.96 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.52 FPts
8. Emmanuel Rivera: 3.7 PA, 0.82 H, 1.33 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.07 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.56 PA, 0.74 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.25 FPts
1. Mookie Betts: 4.46 PA, 1.13 H, 2.07 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.11 SB, 10.98 FPts
2. Shohei Ohtani: 4.43 PA, 1.09 H, 2.28 TB, 0.31 HR, 0.13 SB, 11.69 FPts
3. Freddie Freeman: 4.29 PA, 1.13 H, 1.92 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 10.08 FPts
4. Will Smith: 4.27 PA, 1.0 H, 1.7 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.09 FPts
5. Max Muncy: 4.1 PA, 0.72 H, 1.46 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.56 FPts
6. Teoscar Hernandez: 4.04 PA, 0.97 H, 1.85 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.59 FPts
7. Andy Pages: 3.94 PA, 0.91 H, 1.7 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.09 FPts
8. James Outman: 3.69 PA, 0.72 H, 1.25 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.55 FPts
9. Gavin Lux: 3.44 PA, 0.76 H, 1.15 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.53 FPts
Roddery Munoz MIA - Pitcher Outs Under 14.5 (+120) - 0.168 value
Roddery Munoz MIA - Pitcher Hits Under 4.5 (+125) - 0.121 value
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 1B/OF $6500: 11.69 Proj, 1.48 Score
Mookie Betts (LAD) 2B/SS $6400: 10.98 Proj, 1.41 Score
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1B $5800: 10.08 Proj, 1.29 Score
Will Smith (LAD) C $5100: 9.09 Proj, 1.24 Score
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) OF $4900: 8.59 Proj, 1.2 Score
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