MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Share this post

MLB Data Warehouse
MLB Data Warehouse
MLB DW Slate Preview - Opening Day!

MLB DW Slate Preview - Opening Day!

Our first slate preview post of the new season.

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
Mar 28, 2024
∙ Paid
7

Share this post

MLB Data Warehouse
MLB Data Warehouse
MLB DW Slate Preview - Opening Day!
6
1
Share


Happy Opening Day everyone. I was awake at 5:45 on my volition and couldn’t go back to sleep out of excitement for baseball, and a little bit of anxiousness about being able to get everything done in time this morning.

I’m pretty pumped to be sitting here writing another slate preview post, and I’m especially excited knowing there are a ton of new subscribers here this year that are seeing this for the first time.

What you’re looking at here is an automated slate preview that uses my projections to spit out a post covering all of today’s games. It gives full game projections and recommended player prop bets, all without me having to type anything!

I try to get this post out as often as possible in the season, but I am usually not able to get to it on weekends and I will sometimes miss a weekday slate as well. There will be refinements and changes along the way, so feel free to send me your ideas and recommendations.

Sometimes I will add extra thoughts and analysis as well, and most Tuesdays and Fridays this year there will be a more full DFS preview included. I really wanted to get that done today for Opening Day, but I’m unable to spend a ton of extra time due to some stuff going on, so you’re getting a little bit less than I wanted.


Important note if you like player props. The Player Prop Comparison sheet is live! This uses my projection model results to compare with player prop lines on DraftKings and highlights the best bet values. I’ve made a free copy of it for everybody to check out if you’re deciding on signing up as a paid member and want to get a free look.

I don’t recommend betting to anybody, but if you must, my advice on using my resource is to just stick to the “Recommended Bets”, and the higher the value - the better. Pitcher strikeout, pitcher walk, and hitter strikeout props proved to be profitable last year when the bet value was above 0.10. I cannot guarantee that this will be true again this year. The moneylines, game OUs, and other bet types were losers last year, so I don’t touch those at all, and I don’t think you should either!


We also have DFS top plays in here, and that will always be tailored to the DraftKings main slate for that day. Today that’s the mid-day games.

One other cool thing you’ll see is the “max projection players”. This compares today’s projection for each player with all of this year and last and sees if anybody is projecting above every other projection from their past.


The lineups used below will probably not be fully accurate. They are projected lineups from another site, and there are at least a few spots that I personally think are wrong. These will get better after we establish what teams are doing against lefties and righties.


Slate Preview - March 28


Did you know that the Reds always open up at home? I didn’t know that until recently. And since their home ballpark is the easiest one to homer in, they are near the top of the projections today in this matchup against a pretty bad pitcher in Josiah Gray.

But that couldn’t boost them over the Dodgers, who will be near the top of the list in any matchup this year with the loaded 1-9 they have. It doesn’t hurt that they take on pitch-to-contact Miles Mikolas in this spot. The Nationals also get the Great American Ballpark boost, and then you throw on the Diamondbacks in this spot against the Rockies and those are clearly your top four offenses on the board today.

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

LAD (vs. Miles Mikolas): 79.69 Projected Points
CIN (vs. Josiah Gray): 77.62 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Frankie Montas): 75.0 Projected Points
ARI (vs. Kyle Freeland): 69.21 Projected Points
CHC (vs. Nathan Eovaldi): 67.58 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

CWS (vs. Tarik Skubal): 54.31 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Shane Bieber): 56.14 Projected Points
TOR (vs. Zach Eflin): 56.47 Projected Points
COL (vs. Zac Gallen): 58.59 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Corbin Burnes): 58.97 Projected Points

Team Projections vs. Season Averages

this will use 2023-2024 data for a few weeks
WSH: 75.0 Today, 58.8 Season Average
CIN: 77.62 Today, 63.93 Season Average
LAD: 79.69 Today, 66.65 Season Average
ARI: 69.21 Today, 63.24 Season Average
DET: 60.43 Today, 55.74 Season Average

Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today (2023-2024)
C.J. Abrams: 11.62 Today, 9.94 Previous Max
Lane Thomas: 10.06 Today, 9.07 Previous Max
Jonathan India: 9.3 Today, 9.22 Previous Max
Gabriel Moreno: 8.29 Today, 8.04 Previous Max

DFS Top Plays by Position

Pitchers - Raw Projections

Tarik Skubal $9100 vs. CWS: 19.5 points
Jesus Luzardo $7600 vs. PIT: 16.69 points
Yu Darvish $8200 vs. SF: 15.71 points
Zach Eflin $7300 vs. TOR: 14.66 points
Pablo Lopez $9300 vs. KC: 14.62 points

Pitchers - Top Values

Jesus Luzardo $7600 vs. PIT: 16.69 points, 2.2 value
Tarik Skubal $9100 vs. CWS: 19.5 points, 2.14 value
Josiah Gray $6000 vs. CIN: 12.13 points, 2.02 value
Zach Eflin $7300 vs. TOR: 14.66 points, 2.01 value
Garrett Crochet $6500 vs. DET: 13.09 points, 2.01 value

Catchers

1. Keibert Ruiz ($3700) vs. Frankie Montas: 8.13 points, 1.23 score
2. Tyler Stephenson ($3600) vs. Josiah Gray: 7.16 points, 1.07 score
3. Ryan Jeffers ($3600) vs. Cole Ragans: 7.04 points, 1.06 score
4. Yainer Diaz ($3000) vs. Nestor Cortes: 6.56 points, 1.04 score
5. Salvador Perez ($4200) vs. Pablo Lopez: 6.95 points, 0.98 score

First Base

1. Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($4000) vs. Josiah Gray: 8.19 points, 1.26 score
2. Joey Gallo ($3500) vs. Frankie Montas: 8.26 points, 1.23 score
3. Spencer Steer ($4700) vs. Josiah Gray: 9.04 points, 1.21 score
4. LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3400) vs. Yu Darvish: 8.1 points, 1.18 score
5. Jeimer Candelario ($4200) vs. Josiah Gray: 8.57 points, 1.18 score

Second Base

1. Jonathan India ($3900) vs. Josiah Gray: 9.3 points, 1.37 score
2. Brandon Lowe ($4000) vs. Jose Berrios: 8.37 points, 1.22 score
3. Gleyber Torres ($4500) vs. Framber Valdez: 8.71 points, 1.15 score
4. Jose Altuve ($5500) vs. Nestor Cortes: 8.52 points, 1.09 score
5. Luis Garcia ($3300) vs. Frankie Montas: 6.97 points, 0.99 score

Third Base

1. Jake Burger ($4300) vs. Mitch Keller: 9.16 points, 1.36 score
2. Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($4000) vs. Josiah Gray: 8.19 points, 1.26 score
3. Jeimer Candelario ($4200) vs. Josiah Gray: 8.57 points, 1.18 score
4. Matt Chapman ($4000) vs. Yu Darvish: 8.11 points, 1.14 score
5. Royce Lewis ($4900) vs. Cole Ragans: 8.09 points, 1.13 score

Shortstop

1. C.J. Abrams ($4600) vs. Frankie Montas: 11.62 points, 1.69 score
2. Elly De La Cruz ($5600) vs. Josiah Gray: 9.92 points, 1.37 score
3. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6200) vs. Pablo Lopez: 10.59 points, 1.36 score
4. Anthony Volpe ($3800) vs. Framber Valdez: 7.72 points, 1.13 score
5. Carlos Correa ($4100) vs. Cole Ragans: 7.2 points, 1.05 score

Outfield

1. Lane Thomas ($4300) vs. Frankie Montas: 10.06 points, 1.43 score
2. Jake Fraley ($4300) vs. Josiah Gray: 9.65 points, 1.4 score
3. Will Benson ($3300) vs. Josiah Gray: 8.42 points, 1.35 score
4. Aaron Judge ($6300) vs. Framber Valdez: 9.94 points, 1.3 score
5. Eddie Rosario ($3100) vs. Frankie Montas: 8.08 points, 1.3 score
6. Joey Gallo ($3500) vs. Frankie Montas: 8.26 points, 1.23 score
7. Spencer Steer ($4700) vs. Josiah Gray: 9.04 points, 1.21 score
8. Jesse Winker ($2800) vs. Frankie Montas: 7.25 points, 1.18 score
9. Jazz Chisholm ($5100) vs. Mitch Keller: 8.15 points, 1.15 score
10. Luis Robert ($5500) vs. Tarik Skubal: 8.72 points, 1.14 score
11. Byron Buxton ($4600) vs. Cole Ragans: 7.52 points, 1.13 score
12. Juan Soto ($6100) vs. Framber Valdez: 8.99 points, 1.13 score
13. Jorge Soler ($4900) vs. Yu Darvish: 8.65 points, 1.13 score
14. Connor Joe ($3000) vs. Jesus Luzardo: 7.08 points, 1.12 score
15. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5800) vs. Logan Webb: 8.4 points, 1.12 score

Game-by-Game Previews


LAA @ BAL

Projected Game Score:

BAL 4.22 - LAA 3.82
BAL 52.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.04

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Corbin Burnes: 32 GS, 3079 Pitches, 25.5 K%, 8.4 BB%, 13.3 SwStr%, 46.7 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%, 44.1 GB%, 5 Brl%
Patrick Sandoval: 27 GS, 2620 Pitches, 19.7 K%, 11.1 BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%, 47.0 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Corbin Burnes (BAL): 92 Pitches 5.64 IP, 4.7 H, 2.4 ER, 6.1 K, 2.0 BB, 16.59 FPts
Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 82 Pitches 4.72 IP, 4.7 H, 2.3 ER, 4.0 K, 1.9 BB, 10.61 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Corbin Burnes - Prop Not Found
Patrick Sandoval - Prop Not Found

LAA Hitter Projections

1. Anthony Rendon: 4.45 PA, 0.86 H, 1.23 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.57 FPts
2. Aaron Hicks: 4.33 PA, 0.77 H, 1.07 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.41 FPts
3. Mike Trout: 4.33 PA, 0.93 H, 1.71 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.86 FPts
4. Taylor Ward: 4.26 PA, 0.89 H, 1.37 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.71 FPts
5. Brandon Drury: 4.14 PA, 0.94 H, 1.59 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.68 FPts
6. Nolan Schanuel: 3.94 PA, 0.86 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.48 FPts
7. Miguel Sano: 3.95 PA, 0.59 H, 1.12 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.82 FPts
8. Logan O'Hoppe: 3.79 PA, 0.84 H, 1.6 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.71 FPts
9. Zach Neto: 3.5 PA, 0.75 H, 1.25 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.73 FPts

BAL Hitter Projections

1. Austin Hays: 4.39 PA, 1.03 H, 1.71 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.65 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.35 PA, 1.05 H, 1.77 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.76 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.25 PA, 0.95 H, 1.73 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.99 FPts
4. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.08 PA, 0.98 H, 1.66 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.52 FPts
5. Gunnar Henderson: 3.99 PA, 0.89 H, 1.52 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.35 FPts
6. Jordan Westburg: 3.76 PA, 0.89 H, 1.41 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.58 FPts
7. Ramon Urias: 3.75 PA, 0.83 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.66 FPts
8. Jorge Mateo: 3.43 PA, 0.75 H, 1.13 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.2 SB, 6.2 FPts
9. Cedric Mullins II: 3.45 PA, 0.75 H, 1.12 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.85 FPts

Best Bets

Nolan Schanuel LAA - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+180.0) - 0.16 value
Zach Neto LAA - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-180.0) - 0.126 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

NYY @ HOU

Projected Game Score:

HOU 4.53 - NYY 4.5
HOU 50.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.03

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Framber Valdez: 29 GS, 2952 Pitches, 24.8 K%, 7.1 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 55.2 GB%, 8 Brl%
Nestor Cortes: 12 GS, 1068 Pitches, 25.3 K%, 7.2 BB%, 12.0 SwStr%, 49.3 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 26.1 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Framber Valdez (HOU): 93 Pitches 5.76 IP, 5.3 H, 2.8 ER, 5.4 K, 2.4 BB, 14.16 FPts
Nestor Cortes (NYY): 80 Pitches 4.75 IP, 4.6 H, 2.2 ER, 3.9 K, 1.6 BB, 10.88 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Framber Valdez - 5.5 strikeouts
Nestor Cortes - 4.5 strikeouts

NYY Hitter Projections

1. Gleyber Torres: 4.5 PA, 1.13 H, 1.87 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.71 FPts
2. Juan Soto: 4.34 PA, 0.98 H, 1.66 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.99 FPts
3. Aaron Judge: 4.3 PA, 0.99 H, 2.06 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.94 FPts
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 4.15 PA, 0.79 H, 1.62 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.47 FPts
5. Anthony Volpe: 4.09 PA, 0.84 H, 1.46 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.72 FPts
6. Anthony Rizzo: 3.98 PA, 0.87 H, 1.28 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.15 FPts
7. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.86 PA, 0.74 H, 1.09 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.62 FPts
8. Jose Trevino: 3.49 PA, 0.85 H, 1.16 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.0 FPts
9. Trent Grisham: 3.46 PA, 0.63 H, 1.09 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.98 FPts

HOU Hitter Projections

1. Jose Altuve: 4.45 PA, 1.03 H, 1.71 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.52 FPts
2. Yordan Alvarez: 4.45 PA, 1.02 H, 1.85 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.66 FPts
3. Alex Bregman: 4.34 PA, 0.96 H, 1.52 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.65 FPts
4. Kyle Tucker: 4.23 PA, 1.02 H, 1.75 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.74 FPts
5. Jose Abreu: 4.12 PA, 0.9 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.57 FPts
6. Chas McCormick: 4.02 PA, 0.95 H, 1.68 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.14 FPts
7. Yainer Diaz: 3.94 PA, 0.97 H, 1.65 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.56 FPts
8. Jeremy Pena: 3.79 PA, 0.89 H, 1.28 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.93 FPts
9. Jake Meyers: 3.47 PA, 0.72 H, 1.17 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.39 FPts

Best Bets

Gleyber Torres NYY - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+200.0) - 0.154 value
Kyle Tucker HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+140.0) - 0.143 value
Nestor Cortes NYY - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (-105.0) - 0.142 value
Juan Soto NYY - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-225.0) - 0.12 value
Aaron Judge NYY - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.112 value
Anthony Rizzo NYY - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+190.0) - 0.109 value
Alex Bregman HOU - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-105.0) - 0.107 value
Jose Trevino NYY - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-110.0) - 0.101 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6300: 9.94 Proj, 1.3 Score
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 2B $4500: 8.71 Proj, 1.15 Score
Anthony Volpe (NYY) SS $3800: 7.72 Proj, 1.13 Score
Juan Soto (NYY) OF $6100: 8.99 Proj, 1.13 Score
Chas McCormick (HOU) OF $4200: 8.14 Proj, 1.11 Score

TOR @ TB

Projected Game Score:

TB 4.06 - TOR 3.36
TB 54.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.42

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Zach Eflin: 31 GS, 2577 Pitches, 26.5 K%, 3.3 BB%, 12.0 SwStr%, 49.9 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%, 50.4 GB%, 9 Brl%
Jose Berrios: 32 GS, 2937 Pitches, 23.7 K%, 6.2 BB%, 11.8 SwStr%, 46.7 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 42.1 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Zach Eflin (TB): 85 Pitches 5.41 IP, 5.4 H, 2.3 ER, 5.2 K, 1.0 BB, 14.66 FPts
Jose Berrios (TOR): 82 Pitches 5.44 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 5.5 K, 1.6 BB, 14.15 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Zach Eflin - 4.5 strikeouts
Jose Berrios - 5.5 strikeouts

TOR Hitter Projections

1. George Springer: 4.31 PA, 1.01 H, 1.68 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.32 FPts
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.2 PA, 1.07 H, 1.87 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.66 FPts
3. Bo Bichette: 4.1 PA, 1.1 H, 1.8 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.29 FPts
4. Justin Turner: 3.96 PA, 0.92 H, 1.48 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.29 FPts
5. Daulton Varsho: 3.83 PA, 0.78 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.22 FPts
6. Alejandro Kirk: 3.81 PA, 0.93 H, 1.35 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.81 FPts
7. Cavan Biggio: 3.53 PA, 0.74 H, 1.25 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.68 FPts
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 3.49 PA, 0.82 H, 1.14 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.37 FPts
9. Kevin Kiermaier: 3.22 PA, 0.73 H, 1.08 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.07 SB, 4.83 FPts

TB Hitter Projections

1. Yandy Diaz: 4.25 PA, 1.12 H, 1.83 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.09 FPts
2. Brandon Lowe: 4.13 PA, 0.91 H, 1.84 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.37 FPts
3. Randy Arozarena: 4.15 PA, 0.97 H, 1.75 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.14 FPts
4. Isaac Paredes: 3.98 PA, 0.85 H, 1.62 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.23 FPts
5. Harold Ramirez: 3.88 PA, 0.96 H, 1.41 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.99 FPts
6. Richie Palacios: 3.71 PA, 0.88 H, 1.37 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.51 FPts
7. Jose Siri: 3.71 PA, 0.77 H, 1.66 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.37 FPts
8. Jose Caballero: 3.46 PA, 0.64 H, 0.97 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.19 SB, 5.72 FPts
9. Rene Pinto: 3.14 PA, 0.59 H, 1.06 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.4 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Brandon Lowe (TB) 2B $4000: 8.37 Proj, 1.22 Score
Jose Siri (TB) OF $3800: 7.37 Proj, 1.06 Score
Randy Arozarena (TB) OF $5400: 8.14 Proj, 1.04 Score
Yandy Diaz (TB) 1B $5200: 8.09 Proj, 1.03 Score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $5600: 7.66 Proj, 1.01 Score

PIT @ MIA

Projected Game Score:

MIA 3.68 - PIT 3.64
MIA 50.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.32

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Jesus Luzardo: 31 GS, 2888 Pitches, 27.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 15.0 SwStr%, 48.4 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 10 Brl%
Mitch Keller: 32 GS, 3119 Pitches, 25.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 11.1 SwStr%, 48.8 Strike%, 33.6 Ball%, 44.2 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 88 Pitches 5.29 IP, 4.8 H, 2.4 ER, 6.4 K, 1.7 BB, 16.69 FPts
Mitch Keller (PIT): 85 Pitches 5.08 IP, 5.5 H, 2.4 ER, 5.5 K, 1.2 BB, 14.07 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Jesus Luzardo - 6.5 strikeouts
Mitch Keller - 4.5 strikeouts

PIT Hitter Projections

1. Andrew McCutchen: 4.4 PA, 0.84 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.91 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.27 PA, 1.01 H, 1.76 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.75 FPts
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.2 PA, 1.02 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.14 FPts
4. Connor Joe: 4.09 PA, 0.88 H, 1.45 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.08 FPts
5. Edward Olivares: 3.98 PA, 0.93 H, 1.74 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.57 FPts
6. Henry Davis: 3.9 PA, 0.76 H, 1.29 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.2 FPts
7. Michael A. Taylor: 3.5 PA, 0.69 H, 1.26 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.73 FPts
8. Jared Triolo: 3.64 PA, 0.78 H, 1.17 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.69 FPts
9. Oneil Cruz: 3.46 PA, 0.59 H, 1.08 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.09 FPts

MIA Hitter Projections

1. Luis Arraez: 4.4 PA, 1.31 H, 1.77 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.42 FPts
2. Josh Bell: 4.34 PA, 0.96 H, 1.66 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.25 FPts
3. Jake Burger: 4.14 PA, 1.12 H, 2.35 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.16 FPts
4. Jazz Chisholm: 3.99 PA, 0.88 H, 1.71 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.15 FPts
5. Tim Anderson: 3.98 PA, 0.95 H, 1.25 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.7 FPts
6. Jesus Sanchez: 3.73 PA, 0.87 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.73 FPts
7. Bryan De La Cruz: 3.82 PA, 0.92 H, 1.57 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.37 FPts
8. Avisail Garcia: 3.55 PA, 0.74 H, 1.22 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.03 FPts
9. Christian Bethancourt: 3.37 PA, 0.72 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.6 FPts

Best Bets

Oneil Cruz PIT - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+165.0) - 0.211 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Jake Burger (MIA) 3B $4300: 9.16 Proj, 1.36 Score
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) OF $5100: 8.15 Proj, 1.15 Score
Connor Joe (PIT) 1B/OF $3000: 7.08 Proj, 1.12 Score
Edward Olivares (PIT) OF $3400: 7.57 Proj, 1.09 Score
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) OF $5200: 7.75 Proj, 1.04 Score

MIN @ KC

Projected Game Score:

KC 4.26 - MIN 4.14
KC 50.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.4

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Pablo Lopez: 32 GS, 3024 Pitches, 29.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 15.6 SwStr%, 50.4 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%, 45.3 GB%, 6 Brl%
Cole Ragans: 11 GS, 1490 Pitches, 28.8 K%, 9.9 BB%, 15.4 SwStr%, 49.3 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 44.3 GB%, 6 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Pablo Lopez (MIN): 88 Pitches 5.41 IP, 5.4 H, 2.6 ER, 5.5 K, 1.3 BB, 14.62 FPts
Cole Ragans (KC): 89 Pitches 5.49 IP, 5.1 H, 2.6 ER, 5.2 K, 2.0 BB, 13.66 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Pablo Lopez - 5.5 strikeouts
Cole Ragans - 6.5 strikeouts

MIN Hitter Projections

1. Carlos Santana: 4.41 PA, 0.89 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.14 FPts
2. Byron Buxton: 4.25 PA, 0.78 H, 1.55 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.52 FPts
3. Carlos Correa: 4.15 PA, 0.89 H, 1.45 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.2 FPts
4. Royce Lewis: 4.07 PA, 1.0 H, 1.73 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.09 FPts
5. Kyle Farmer: 3.87 PA, 0.88 H, 1.36 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.24 FPts
6. Ryan Jeffers: 3.9 PA, 0.83 H, 1.5 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.04 FPts
7. Manuel Margot: 3.8 PA, 0.92 H, 1.33 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.42 FPts
8. Willi Castro: 3.67 PA, 0.8 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.61 FPts
9. Max Kepler: 3.34 PA, 0.7 H, 1.22 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.64 FPts

KC Hitter Projections

1. Maikel Garcia: 4.63 PA, 1.12 H, 1.62 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.88 FPts
2. Bobby Witt Jr.: 4.55 PA, 1.24 H, 2.33 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.22 SB, 10.59 FPts
3. Vinnie Pasquantino: 4.43 PA, 1.1 H, 1.81 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.31 FPts
4. Salvador Perez: 4.29 PA, 1.0 H, 1.74 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.95 FPts
5. MJ Melendez: 4.21 PA, 0.86 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.15 FPts
6. Hunter Renfroe: 4.11 PA, 0.81 H, 1.29 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.55 FPts
7. Adam Frazier: 3.72 PA, 0.89 H, 1.21 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.69 FPts
8. Nelson Velazquez: 3.74 PA, 0.73 H, 1.59 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.78 FPts
9. Kyle Isbel: 3.53 PA, 0.76 H, 1.19 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.44 FPts

Best Bets

Byron Buxton MIN - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+140.0) - 0.203 value
Manuel Margot MIN - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+160.0) - 0.153 value
Pablo Lopez MIN - Walks Under 1.5 (+105.0) - 0.153 value
Royce Lewis MIN - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-185.0) - 0.142 value
Cole Ragans KC - Strikeouts Under 6.5 (-150.0) - 0.138 value
Adam Frazier KC - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.122 value
Ryan Jeffers MIN - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.12 value
Max Kepler MIN - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+145.0) - 0.114 value
Carlos Santana MIN - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+165.0) - 0.1 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) SS $6200: 10.59 Proj, 1.36 Score
Royce Lewis (MIN) 3B $4900: 8.09 Proj, 1.13 Score
Byron Buxton (MIN) OF $4600: 7.52 Proj, 1.13 Score
MJ Melendez (KC) OF $3300: 7.15 Proj, 1.1 Score
Maikel Garcia (KC) 3B $3800: 7.88 Proj, 1.1 Score

DET @ CWS

Projected Game Score:

DET 3.96 - CWS 3.16
DET 55.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.12

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Tarik Skubal: 14 GS, 1166 Pitches, 31.8 K%, 4.7 BB%, 16.1 SwStr%, 53.2 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%, 52.4 GB%, 4 Brl%
Garrett Crochet: 0 GS, 292 Pitches, 18.8 K%, 20.3 BB%, 11.6 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 40.1 Ball%, 34.2 GB%, 10 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Tarik Skubal (DET): 89 Pitches 5.75 IP, 5.3 H, 2.4 ER, 7.1 K, 0.9 BB, 19.5 FPts
Garrett Crochet (CWS): 79 Pitches 4.65 IP, 3.9 H, 2.0 ER, 4.8 K, 2.1 BB, 13.09 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Tarik Skubal - 6.5 strikeouts
Garrett Crochet - 4.5 strikeouts

DET Hitter Projections

1. Matt Vierling: 4.43 PA, 0.99 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.92 FPts
2. Gio Urshela: 4.35 PA, 1.07 H, 1.44 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.64 FPts
3. Riley Greene: 4.26 PA, 0.95 H, 1.47 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.23 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.2 PA, 0.91 H, 1.8 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.49 FPts
5. Mark Canha: 4.04 PA, 0.83 H, 1.29 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.86 FPts
6. Javier Baez: 3.91 PA, 0.85 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.16 FPts
7. Colt Keith: 3.88 PA, 0.74 H, 1.2 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.77 FPts
8. Jake Rogers: 3.65 PA, 0.71 H, 1.3 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.07 FPts
9. Parker Meadows: 3.52 PA, 0.65 H, 1.08 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.29 FPts

CWS Hitter Projections

1. Yoan Moncada: 4.33 PA, 0.93 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.15 FPts
2. Luis Robert: 4.2 PA, 1.07 H, 2.19 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.72 FPts
3. Andrew Vaughn: 4.21 PA, 0.98 H, 1.69 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.81 FPts
4. Eloy Jimenez: 4.1 PA, 0.98 H, 1.7 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.93 FPts
5. Paul DeJong: 3.93 PA, 0.69 H, 1.26 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.37 FPts
6. Andrew Benintendi: 3.88 PA, 0.92 H, 1.22 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.49 FPts
7. Kevin Pillar: 3.52 PA, 0.76 H, 1.34 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.44 FPts
8. Martin Maldonado: 3.49 PA, 0.58 H, 1.08 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.61 FPts
9. Nicky Lopez: 3.3 PA, 0.78 H, 0.97 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.1 SB, 4.79 FPts

Best Bets

Tarik Skubal DET - Walks Under 1.5 (-175.0) - 0.14 value
Luis Robert CWS - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+105.0) - 0.132 value
Jake Rogers DET - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.121 value
Mark Canha DET - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+155.0) - 0.11 value
Parker Meadows DET - Hitter K Under 1.5 (-200.0) - 0.109 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Luis Robert (CWS) OF $5500: 8.72 Proj, 1.14 Score
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 1B $4900: 8.49 Proj, 1.07 Score
Matt Vierling (DET) 3B/OF $3500: 6.92 Proj, 1.01 Score
Jake Rogers (DET) C $3400: 6.07 Proj, 0.98 Score
Mark Canha (DET) OF $3900: 6.86 Proj, 0.96 Score

WSH @ CIN

Projected Game Score:

CIN 5.94 - WSH 5.62
CIN 51.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 11.56

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Josiah Gray: 30 GS, 2812 Pitches, 20.5 K%, 11.3 BB%, 12.1 SwStr%, 44.7 Strike%, 38.7 Ball%, 38.0 GB%, 9 Brl%
Frankie Montas: 0 GS, 26 Pitches, 14.3 K%, 14.3 BB%, 15.4 SwStr%, 38.5 Strike%, 42.3 Ball%, 80.0 GB%, 0 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Josiah Gray (WSH): 88 Pitches 5.06 IP, 4.6 H, 2.8 ER, 5.1 K, 2.6 BB, 12.13 FPts
Frankie Montas (CIN): 80 Pitches 5.16 IP, 5.2 H, 2.9 ER, 3.8 K, 2.8 BB, 9.05 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Josiah Gray - 5.5 strikeouts
Frankie Montas - 4.5 strikeouts

WSH Hitter Projections

1. C.J. Abrams: 4.51 PA, 1.24 H, 2.33 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.29 SB, 11.62 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.42 PA, 1.11 H, 2.09 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.13 SB, 10.06 FPts
3. Jesse Winker: 4.01 PA, 0.74 H, 1.05 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.25 FPts
4. Joey Meneses: 4.25 PA, 1.1 H, 1.76 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.14 FPts
5. Joey Gallo: 3.8 PA, 0.6 H, 1.47 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.26 FPts
6. Keibert Ruiz: 4.02 PA, 1.04 H, 1.8 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.13 FPts
7. Eddie Rosario: 3.69 PA, 0.92 H, 1.77 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.08 FPts
8. Nick Senzel: 3.59 PA, 0.78 H, 1.19 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.49 FPts
9. Luis Garcia: 3.52 PA, 0.93 H, 1.49 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.97 FPts

CIN Hitter Projections

1. Jonathan India: 4.46 PA, 1.01 H, 1.82 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.3 FPts
2. Elly De La Cruz: 4.43 PA, 0.95 H, 1.73 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.28 SB, 9.92 FPts
3. Spencer Steer: 4.34 PA, 0.95 H, 1.63 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.04 FPts
4. Jake Fraley: 4.06 PA, 0.9 H, 1.64 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.24 SB, 9.65 FPts
5. Jeimer Candelario: 4.09 PA, 0.91 H, 1.71 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.57 FPts
6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3.98 PA, 1.01 H, 1.88 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.19 FPts
7. Will Benson: 3.67 PA, 0.77 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.23 SB, 8.42 FPts
8. Tyler Stephenson: 3.71 PA, 0.86 H, 1.52 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.16 FPts
9. Nick Martini: 3.56 PA, 0.8 H, 1.47 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.37 FPts

Best Bets

Frankie Montas CIN - Walks Over 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.224 value
Frankie Montas CIN - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (+120.0) - 0.219 value
Joey Gallo WSH - Hitter K Under 1.5 (+145.0) - 0.187 value
Keibert Ruiz WSH - Hitter K Under 0.5 (-135.0) - 0.103 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

C.J. Abrams (WSH) SS $4600: 11.62 Proj, 1.69 Score
Lane Thomas (WSH) OF $4300: 10.06 Proj, 1.43 Score
Jake Fraley (CIN) OF $4300: 9.65 Proj, 1.4 Score
Jonathan India (CIN) 2B $3900: 9.3 Proj, 1.37 Score
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) SS $5600: 9.92 Proj, 1.37 Score

SF @ SD

Projected Game Score:

SF 4.16 - SD 3.52
SF 54.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.68

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Yu Darvish: 23 GS, 2218 Pitches, 24.6 K%, 7.3 BB%, 11.7 SwStr%, 47.5 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%, 42.7 GB%, 7 Brl%
Logan Webb: 33 GS, 3182 Pitches, 22.8 K%, 3.6 BB%, 9.9 SwStr%, 48.3 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%, 62.7 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Yu Darvish (SD): 82 Pitches 5.58 IP, 4.9 H, 2.5 ER, 5.9 K, 2.0 BB, 15.71 FPts
Logan Webb (SF): 95 Pitches 5.8 IP, 6.1 H, 2.5 ER, 4.6 K, 1.3 BB, 13.33 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Yu Darvish - 5.5 strikeouts
Logan Webb - Prop Not Found

SF Hitter Projections

1. Jung Hoo Lee: 4.52 PA, 0.91 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.34 FPts
2. Matt Chapman: 4.37 PA, 0.88 H, 1.76 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.11 FPts
3. LaMonte Wade Jr.: 4.1 PA, 0.88 H, 1.61 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.1 FPts
4. Jorge Soler: 4.17 PA, 0.87 H, 1.92 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.65 FPts
5. Michael Conforto: 3.93 PA, 0.82 H, 1.36 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.94 FPts
6. Thairo Estrada: 3.99 PA, 0.94 H, 1.45 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.77 FPts
7. Mike Yastrzemski: 3.67 PA, 0.74 H, 1.31 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.34 FPts
8. Patrick Bailey: 3.7 PA, 0.86 H, 1.48 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.4 FPts
9. Nick Ahmed: 3.24 PA, 0.59 H, 0.86 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.06 SB, 4.14 FPts

SD Hitter Projections

1. Xander Bogaerts: 4.41 PA, 1.08 H, 1.59 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.3 FPts
2. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.29 PA, 1.05 H, 1.88 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.4 FPts
3. Jake Cronenworth: 4.22 PA, 0.93 H, 1.35 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.34 FPts
4. Manny Machado: 4.1 PA, 0.96 H, 1.64 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.93 FPts
5. Ha-Seong Kim: 3.96 PA, 0.85 H, 1.23 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.2 SB, 6.87 FPts
6. Jurickson Profar: 3.88 PA, 0.87 H, 1.23 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.7 FPts
7. Luis Campusano: 3.76 PA, 1.01 H, 1.52 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.96 FPts
8. Tyler Wade: 3.68 PA, 0.84 H, 1.09 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.24 SB, 6.12 FPts
9. Jackson Merrill: 3.46 PA, 0.84 H, 1.44 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.19 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF) 1B $3400: 8.1 Proj, 1.18 Score
Matt Chapman (SF) 3B $4000: 8.11 Proj, 1.14 Score
Jorge Soler (SF) OF $4900: 8.65 Proj, 1.13 Score
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) OF $5800: 8.4 Proj, 1.12 Score
Michael Conforto (SF) OF $3700: 6.94 Proj, 0.98 Score

STL @ LAD

Projected Game Score:

LAD 6.18 - STL 4.74
LAD 56.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 10.92

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Tyler Glasnow: 20 GS, 1894 Pitches, 33.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 17.2 SwStr%, 50.6 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 50.9 GB%, 12 Brl%
Miles Mikolas: 35 GS, 3197 Pitches, 15.9 K%, 4.5 BB%, 8.3 SwStr%, 46.4 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%, 39.0 GB%, 10 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 86 Pitches 5.4 IP, 4.5 H, 2.5 ER, 6.9 K, 2.2 BB, 17.66 FPts
Miles Mikolas (STL): 91 Pitches 5.39 IP, 6.4 H, 3.3 ER, 4.1 K, 1.7 BB, 9.32 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Tyler Glasnow - 7.5 strikeouts
Miles Mikolas - 3.5 strikeouts

STL Hitter Projections

1. Brendan Donovan: 4.49 PA, 1.11 H, 1.72 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.53 FPts
2. Paul Goldschmidt: 4.33 PA, 0.9 H, 1.7 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.17 FPts
3. Nolan Gorman: 4.25 PA, 0.86 H, 1.91 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.06 SB, 9.04 FPts
4. Nolan Arenado: 4.16 PA, 1.02 H, 1.87 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.18 FPts
5. Willson Contreras: 4.06 PA, 0.89 H, 1.74 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.19 FPts
6. Matt Carpenter: 3.81 PA, 0.56 H, 1.1 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.21 FPts
7. Jordan Walker: 3.85 PA, 0.88 H, 1.52 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.03 FPts
8. Victor Scott II: 3.77 PA, 0.72 H, 1.11 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.3 SB, 7.09 FPts
9. Masyn Winn: 3.54 PA, 0.63 H, 0.89 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.1 SB, 4.98 FPts

LAD Hitter Projections

1. Mookie Betts: 4.38 PA, 1.21 H, 2.36 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.07 SB, 10.76 FPts
2. Shohei Ohtani: 4.34 PA, 1.21 H, 2.55 TB, 0.35 HR, 0.11 SB, 11.62 FPts
3. Freddie Freeman: 4.22 PA, 1.25 H, 2.16 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.09 SB, 10.08 FPts
4. Will Smith: 4.2 PA, 1.04 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.26 FPts
5. Max Muncy: 4.01 PA, 0.85 H, 1.76 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.53 FPts
6. Teoscar Hernandez: 3.99 PA, 1.08 H, 2.1 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.88 FPts
7. James Outman: 3.79 PA, 0.9 H, 1.58 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.04 FPts
8. Jason Heyward: 3.35 PA, 0.81 H, 1.52 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.75 FPts
9. Gavin Lux: 3.53 PA, 0.89 H, 1.36 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.77 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

CHC @ TEX

Projected Game Score:

CHC 4.74 - TEX 4.58
CHC 50.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.32

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Justin Steele: 30 GS, 2678 Pitches, 24.5 K%, 5.0 BB%, 12.7 SwStr%, 49.1 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%, 50.3 GB%, 5 Brl%
Nathan Eovaldi: 25 GS, 2232 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 8.1 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 45.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 51.5 GB%, 8 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Justin Steele (CHC): 75 Pitches 4.69 IP, 4.7 H, 2.3 ER, 4.6 K, 1.3 BB, 12.25 FPts
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 79 Pitches 4.47 IP, 4.4 H, 2.2 ER, 4.2 K, 1.6 BB, 10.88 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Justin Steele - 5.5 strikeouts
Nathan Eovaldi - 5.5 strikeouts

CHC Hitter Projections

1. Ian Happ: 4.51 PA, 0.97 H, 1.63 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.53 FPts
2. Seiya Suzuki: 4.44 PA, 1.11 H, 1.95 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.94 FPts
3. Cody Bellinger: 4.32 PA, 0.98 H, 1.59 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.62 FPts
4. Christopher Morel: 4.18 PA, 0.92 H, 1.86 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.57 FPts
5. Dansby Swanson: 4.08 PA, 0.93 H, 1.59 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.42 FPts
6. Michael Busch: 4.04 PA, 0.88 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.56 FPts
7. Nico Hoerner: 3.88 PA, 0.94 H, 1.3 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.71 FPts
8. Mike Tauchman: 3.66 PA, 0.78 H, 1.2 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.74 FPts
9. Yan Gomes: 3.47 PA, 0.79 H, 1.29 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.49 FPts

TEX Hitter Projections

1. Marcus Semien: 4.57 PA, 1.05 H, 1.73 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.1 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.45 PA, 1.14 H, 2.07 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.75 FPts
3. Adolis Garcia: 4.34 PA, 0.92 H, 1.79 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.1 FPts
4. Josh Jung: 4.24 PA, 0.94 H, 1.66 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.13 FPts
5. Evan Carter: 4.19 PA, 0.8 H, 1.21 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.92 FPts
6. Wyatt Langford: 4.08 PA, 0.85 H, 1.42 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.7 FPts
7. Jonah Heim: 3.91 PA, 0.9 H, 1.5 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.56 FPts
8. Ezequiel Duran: 3.68 PA, 0.93 H, 1.62 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.03 FPts
9. Leody Taveras: 3.59 PA, 0.85 H, 1.28 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.01 FPts

Best Bets

Nathan Eovaldi TEX - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-140.0) - 0.173 value
Yan Gomes CHC - Hitter K Under 0.5 (+170.0) - 0.117 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

CLE @ OAK

Projected Game Score:

CLE 4.06 - OAK 3.38
CLE 54.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.44

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Shane Bieber: 21 GS, 1954 Pitches, 19.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 11.2 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%, 47.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Alex Wood: 12 GS, 1708 Pitches, 17.2 K%, 9.8 BB%, 10.0 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 45.9 GB%, 6 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Shane Bieber (CLE): 88 Pitches 5.56 IP, 4.9 H, 2.4 ER, 6.2 K, 1.7 BB, 16.86 FPts
Alex Wood (OAK): 78 Pitches 4.46 IP, 4.5 H, 2.1 ER, 3.3 K, 1.5 BB, 9.0 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Shane Bieber - 6.5 strikeouts
Alex Wood - 3.5 strikeouts

CLE Hitter Projections

1. Steven Kwan: 4.45 PA, 1.11 H, 1.39 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.38 FPts
2. Jose Ramirez: 4.34 PA, 1.13 H, 1.87 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.83 FPts
3. Josh Naylor: 4.24 PA, 1.08 H, 1.72 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.82 FPts
4. Ramon Laureano: 4.04 PA, 0.87 H, 1.43 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.29 FPts
5. Andres Gimenez: 4.02 PA, 0.97 H, 1.47 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.33 FPts
6. David Fry: 3.67 PA, 0.84 H, 1.46 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.29 FPts
7. Gabriel Arias: 3.68 PA, 0.74 H, 1.25 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.27 FPts
8. Bo Naylor: 3.62 PA, 0.72 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.89 FPts
9. Brayan Rocchio: 3.48 PA, 0.75 H, 1.15 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.82 FPts

OAK Hitter Projections

1. Ryan Noda: 4.2 PA, 0.83 H, 1.52 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.38 FPts
2. Zack Gelof: 4.21 PA, 0.98 H, 1.78 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.93 FPts
3. JJ Bleday: 3.92 PA, 0.69 H, 1.19 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.07 FPts
4. Brent Rooker: 3.89 PA, 0.8 H, 1.52 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.71 FPts
5. Seth Brown: 3.68 PA, 0.83 H, 1.52 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.33 FPts
6. J.D. Davis: 3.72 PA, 0.85 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.99 FPts
7. Shea Langeliers: 3.71 PA, 0.73 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.57 FPts
8. Lawrence Butler: 3.4 PA, 0.74 H, 1.24 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.9 FPts
9. Nick Allen: 3.29 PA, 0.69 H, 0.89 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.1 SB, 4.26 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

COL @ ARI

Projected Game Score:

ARI 4.86 - COL 3.7
ARI 56.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.56

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Zac Gallen: 34 GS, 3248 Pitches, 25.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 46.8 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%, 42.3 GB%, 9 Brl%
Kyle Freeland: 28 GS, 2414 Pitches, 13.8 K%, 6.2 BB%, 8.8 SwStr%, 43.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%, 40.9 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Zac Gallen (ARI): 90 Pitches 5.48 IP, 5.2 H, 2.4 ER, 6.4 K, 1.4 BB, 16.77 FPts
Kyle Freeland (COL): 84 Pitches 5.41 IP, 6.4 H, 3.1 ER, 3.2 K, 1.6 BB, 7.79 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Zac Gallen - 5.5 strikeouts
Kyle Freeland - 3.5 strikeouts

COL Hitter Projections

1. Charlie Blackmon: 4.52 PA, 1.05 H, 1.59 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.09 FPts
2. Kris Bryant: 4.31 PA, 0.91 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.65 FPts
3. Nolan Jones: 4.32 PA, 1.03 H, 1.87 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.97 FPts
4. Brendan Rodgers: 4.23 PA, 1.0 H, 1.51 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.68 FPts
5. Ryan McMahon: 4.08 PA, 0.89 H, 1.6 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.19 FPts
6. Elias Diaz: 3.97 PA, 0.88 H, 1.41 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.98 FPts
7. Ezequiel Tovar: 3.86 PA, 0.88 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.05 FPts
8. Elehuris Montero: 3.77 PA, 0.72 H, 1.21 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.92 FPts
9. Brenton Doyle: 3.43 PA, 0.63 H, 1.06 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.06 FPts

ARI Hitter Projections

1. Ketel Marte: 4.42 PA, 1.16 H, 2.03 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 9.12 FPts
2. Corbin Carroll: 4.29 PA, 1.13 H, 1.81 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.26 SB, 9.5 FPts
3. Gabriel Moreno: 4.23 PA, 1.19 H, 1.79 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.29 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.09 PA, 0.99 H, 1.89 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.85 FPts
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 4.01 PA, 1.08 H, 1.83 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.93 FPts
6. Eugenio Suarez: 3.93 PA, 0.9 H, 1.69 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.79 FPts
7. Emmanuel Rivera: 3.6 PA, 0.91 H, 1.4 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.15 FPts
8. Alek Thomas: 3.58 PA, 0.89 H, 1.37 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.17 FPts
9. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.44 PA, 0.7 H, 0.92 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.41 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

BOS @ SEA

Projected Game Score:

SEA 4.7 - BOS 4.08
SEA 53.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.78

2023-2024 Pitcher Stats

Luis Castillo: 33 GS, 3207 Pitches, 27.3 K%, 7.0 BB%, 15.9 SwStr%, 50.2 Strike%, 33.5 Ball%, 39.5 GB%, 9 Brl%
Brayan Bello: 28 GS, 2618 Pitches, 19.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, 11.8 SwStr%, 44.7 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%, 56.3 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Luis Castillo (SEA): 92 Pitches 5.91 IP, 4.8 H, 2.4 ER, 7.4 K, 1.8 BB, 19.89 FPts
Brayan Bello (BOS): 91 Pitches 5.41 IP, 5.4 H, 2.7 ER, 5.0 K, 2.0 BB, 12.81 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Luis Castillo - 6.5 strikeouts
Brayan Bello - 4.5 strikeouts

BOS Hitter Projections

1. Jarren Duran: 4.41 PA, 0.96 H, 1.56 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.82 FPts
2. Rafael Devers: 4.42 PA, 1.07 H, 2.14 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.15 FPts
3. Trevor Story: 4.37 PA, 0.8 H, 1.25 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.47 FPts
4. Triston Casas: 4.19 PA, 0.81 H, 1.58 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.93 FPts
5. Tyler O'Neill: 4.16 PA, 0.85 H, 1.47 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.09 FPts
6. Masataka Yoshida: 4.0 PA, 1.03 H, 1.61 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.04 FPts
7. Ceddanne Rafaela: 3.94 PA, 0.85 H, 1.51 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.89 FPts
8. Enmanuel Valdez: 3.42 PA, 0.74 H, 1.34 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.97 FPts
9. Connor Wong: 3.42 PA, 0.64 H, 1.1 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 4.94 FPts

SEA Hitter Projections

1. J.P. Crawford: 4.45 PA, 1.05 H, 1.63 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.27 FPts
2. Julio Rodriguez: 4.37 PA, 1.16 H, 2.15 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.81 FPts
3. Jorge Polanco: 4.24 PA, 0.9 H, 1.73 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.57 FPts
4. Mitch Garver: 4.19 PA, 0.88 H, 1.76 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.13 FPts
5. Cal Raleigh: 4.07 PA, 0.85 H, 1.75 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.81 FPts
6. Mitch Haniger: 3.8 PA, 0.79 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.14 FPts
7. Dominic Canzone: 3.71 PA, 0.95 H, 1.77 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.13 FPts
8. Ty France: 3.71 PA, 0.93 H, 1.42 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.13 FPts
9. Josh Rojas: 3.25 PA, 0.73 H, 1.02 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.5 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Jon A
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share