MLB Opening Day Preview, Projections, & Picks!
Happy Opening Day my people! Needless to say, I am excited to get going. There will be a ton of stuff going on here on my SubStack this year, so thank you for coming along for the ride.
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Strikeout Prop Standouts
If you take a look at that player prop sheet, we see some huge differences in strikeout totals between my projections and the sportsbook lines. Those being:
Max Scherzer - Over 5.5 Strikeouts
There are a lot more ways for an under to hit as compared to an over (injuries, pitch counts, rain delays, etc.), so I do always make sure I think twice before betting on an over (especially in the first couple of weeks) - but in this case, come on. Scherzer did this in spring:
He cleared 100 pitches in his last two outings, so there’s little doubt that he’ll do that again today. I’m not going to look it up, but I’m certain that it’s pretty rare for Scherzer to throw 90+ pitches and not strike out at least six hitters. The line is juiced up, of course, but it’s nothing crazy.
Gerrit Cole - Under 8.5 Strikeouts
I planned Cole for 98 pitches, which is generous - and the model still spits out just 5.9 strikeouts. That feels low, to be sure, but there’s a lot of wiggle room here.
Hunter Greene - Under 7.5 Strikeouts
When all is said and done for the year, Greene will probably go over 7.5 just as often or more than he goes under, but that seems like a reasonable line for him - and it’s the first start of the season.
It’s cold in the north, which is good for pitchers in the “balls in play performance” sense, but I do think it makes it a bit more likely we see some quick hooks today.
Greene faced a max of 19 batters in spring and faced just 14 last time out. If he goes to 22 batters faced, he’ll need to strike out 35% of them to get to 8 strikeouts. The Pirates don’t profile as a super high strikeout team either (besides that Oneil Cruz guy…), so the under is feeling pretty cozy to me here.
DFS Picks
I’m not going to go in-depth here today, but here’s a quick rundown of what the projections are pointing to - using just the afternoon main slate.
Team Offenses
The Braves draw one of the best DFS matchups you can get against Patrick Corbin, who has an ERA near 6 in the last two years - and that’s in over 300 innings pitched. The beautiful thing for us is that the Nationals don’t even pull the guy when he’s getting shelled. They have fully embraced the sunk cost fallacy. Seemingly, they just want to see how many innings he can throw before his contract finally expires. It’s like that episode of The Office when they make the stripper answer customer service phone calls because they already paid her for the time.
That game is in Washington, where it’s cold - so that lowers the chances of an offensive boom - but even considering all of that they project for the most points on the slate.
The other spot that usually gets our attention is Cincinnati. It was the best park for DraftKings scoring last year, and the Reds aren’t exactly facing an imposing force in Mitch Keller.
That said, I think a Reds stack is probably a bad idea in tournaments/leverage situations. They aren’t a high-powered offense and Mitch Keller isn’t the gas can people think he is. The temperature looks higher in Cincy (60 degrees) than in other places though, so the park probably will play very favorably for hitters. Last year, 10.6% of flyballs/line drives went for homers in Cincy, but prior to May 15th that number was just 9.4% - a pretty big drop. Temperature matters, don’t go overboard on Great American Ballpark today. In fact, that under 8 runs line on DraftKings seems appealing to me.
SP
Scherzer separates way above the pack in my projections (25.8 projected points, next highest is 21.9). Part of that is because I have him projected for 10-15 more pitches than anybody else, but the other part is the matchup.
Scherzer $9400 - 25.9
Burnes $8800 - 21.9
Nola $8100 - 21.3
deGrom $9600 - 18.8 (assuming just 72 pitches)
Cole $9000 - 18.4
I don’t think we need to go cheap today, but if you need someone the highest projections under $8000 are:
Manoah $7900 - 17.9
McClanahan $7700 - 16.3
Lopez $7500 - 16.2
Catchers
It’s going to be a different-feeling year at the catcher position. I can’t remember when we had this many competent hitters at the position. DraftKings’ first move was to leave them all pretty cheap too. Sean Murphy is the clear standout play.
Murphy $3400 - 7.48
William Contreras $3600 - 7.68
Bethancourt $2800 - 6.52
McGuire $2200 - 5.75
First Base
The projections really hate the first base position today. Yandy Diaz is the highest-projected player there with 8.26 points leading off against Eduardo Rodriguez. Good spot to pay down in, it would seem.
Best Per-Dollar Plays:
Casas $2900 - 7.37
Santana $3500 - 7.85
Pasquantino $4000 - 8.23
Best Raw Projection Plays:
Diaz $4300 - 8.26
Pasquantino $4000 - 8.23
Santander $5000 - 8.15
Second Base
Another pretty light position in terms of what the expensive guys are expected to do. The best scorers (Jazz & Semien) have awful matchups - which is probably a reason to play them in tournaments but not in a cash-game situation.
Per-Dollar:
Massey $2800 - 7.50
Turang $2000 - 6.17
Gordon $2900 - 7.17
Raw Projection:
India $4900 - 7.88
Lowe $4000 - 7.62
Hoerner $4200 - 7.50
Shortstop
Per-Dollar:
Tovar $2000 - 6.76
Turang $2000 - 6.17
Gordon $2900 - 7.17
Volpe $2500 - 6.16 (assuming he’s hitting 9th)
Raw Projection:
Correa $5400 - 8.16
Franco $4700 - 8.06
Cruz $5100 - 8.00
Third Base
Per-Dollar:
Steer $3200 - 7.46
Riley $4600 - 8.62
Diaz $4300 - 8.26
Raw Projection:
Rafael Devers $5900 - 9.32
Austin Riley $4600 - 8.62
Machado $5400 - 8.40
Outfield
Per-Dollar:
Benson $2000 - 6.96
Suwinski $2300 - 6.70
Vierling $2400 - 6.72
Larnach $2500 - 6.78
Fraley $4200 - 8.66
Kepler $3400 - 7.66
Raw Projection:
Judge $6300 - 9.67
Acuna Jr. $5700 - 9.60
Mullins $5400 - 8.89
Buxton $5800 - 8.80
Arozarena $5100 - 8.77
That is it for the Opening Day preview! I’ll be back tomorrow with a summary of what went down today. There will be free content here every day, so consider subscribing even if you’re not willing to pay.