MLB Postseason Game Previews - October 3
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Welcome to the postseason! I’m excited for day one, so I’m putting a game previews post out there - and I add plenty of commentary along the way. I’ll be looking for bet values and will be playing this DFS slate, so that’s mostly what I’ll be focused on below, but we’ll talk more in general terms about the games as well, hope you enjoy!
Slate Preview
We’re not going to see many high projections on the hitting side as most of these teams have at least a stud pitcher or two and they’ll be out there as often as possible in the postseason.
Matchups
ARI (Pfaadt) vs. MIL (Burnes)
MIL -180, O/U 8
MIA (Luzardo) vs. PHI (Wheeler)
PHI -162, O/U 7.5
TEX (Montgomery) vs. TB (Glasnow)
TB -152, O/U 7.5
TOR (Gausman) vs. MIN (Lopez)
TOR -102, O/U 7.5
One of those SPs is not like the other. The Diamondbacks had to keep the foot on the gas at the end of the season, and their starting rotation is not set up the way they want because of it. Merrill Kelly pitched on the 30th, and Gallen went on the 29th - so they decided to give those guys an extra day’s rest to keep them on a regular schedule. I suppose for them it doesn’t really matter because they’ve got to win two games, so if Kelly & Gallen are going to be the winners it doesn’t really matter when those wins happen - but anyways, the Brewers clearly have the best pitcher matchup of the night.
Bullpens
So not only are the D’Backs throwing out the clear worst SP, they also probably have the worst bullpen.
That doesn’t lead the Brewers to being the top projected offense, because their lineup simply isn’t as good as other teams playing today. Here are the full team hitting projections:
I’m certainly not gung-ho on stacking up Rangers against Glasnow, but some credit to them must be given for just being a much better lineup than the rset of the slate, even though they’re in arguably the toughest matchup as far as opposing SPs go.
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers
I can just show the full projections, so let’s do that.
Gausman + Glasnow is probably the correct cash game combination for DFS purposes. The pricing comes down in the playoffs, and those two are well ahead of the pack in the projections. The price on Pfaadt is so low that it’s awful tempting. He’s been pretty good since returning to the Majors in July:
For the season, he has averaged 11.4 DraftKings points per start, but since the All-Star Break, it’s up to 15.8. That’s still a long ways from the ~22 average points that you’ve gotten from Gausman & Glasnow, but he’s half-price, so there ya go.
If we’re playing a bunch of tourney lineups, we have to plant some flags. It’s probably not the optimal strategy to go in using all eight pitchers. The worst plays of the bunch, by value, are Jordan Montgomery ($7,100) and Zack Wheeler ($8,600) with projections of 13.2 and 16.6 respectively.
So if we’re really leaning into the projections here, my GPP pitchers would be this, ordered by how much exposure I’d want.
Tyler Glasnow
Kevin Gausman
Jesus Luzardo
Brandon Pfaadt
Pablo Lopez
Corbin Burnes
I could probably even be fine leaving Burnes off there. I know that pitch count stuff goes out the window in the postseason, but Burnes did throw just 66 pitches in his last start on the 28th. That means he’s been two weeks since he’s thrown a full outing. That probably won’t matter, but the projection doesn’t like him all that much even with a projected pitch count of 90.
Catchers
1. William Contreras ($4600.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.27 points, 1.23 score
2. J.T. Realmuto ($4800.0) vs. Jesus Luzardo: 8.0 points, 1.16 score
3. Alejandro Kirk ($2900.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 6.85 points, 1.14 score
4. Mitch Garver ($4000.0) vs. Tyler Glasnow: 7.19 points, 1.05 score
5. Gabriel Moreno ($3400.0) vs. Corbin Burnes: 6.4 points, 0.98 score
I think the Brewers are going to pop here a lot. Pfaadt has given up a .323 xwOBA on the season, that leads the slate by a good margin - but again, he’s been better since returning. He gives up the most fly balls no matter what date sample you’re looking at (34% on the year), so that gives the Brewers some increased home run upside at home (they’re still projected for the fourth-most homers on the slate though).
Cash Play: William Contreras
Tourney Pool: Contreras, Realmuto, Jeffers, Fortes (punt)
First Base
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4900.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 8.35 points, 1.17 score
2. Yandy Diaz ($5400.0) vs. Jordan Montgomery: 8.68 points, 1.11 score
3. Brandon Belt ($3900.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 7.38 points, 1.09 score
4. Bryce Harper ($5800.0) vs. Jesus Luzardo: 8.17 points, 1.09 score
5. Carlos Santana ($4100.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.69 points, 1.06 score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grades out as the top play even after his lackluster fantasy season and the $4,900 price tag. That’s more about this position just being really weak on this particular slate. Bryce Harper is the big name at the position, but he’s against a really tough lefty in Luzardo who has allowed just a .278 xwOBA to lefties this year with a 32% K% and a 5% BB%.
Yandy Diaz is actually the top raw projection up at 8.68 points, but the price tag at $5,400 and the relative lack of ceiling is a put-off.
Cash Play: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Tourney Pool: Yandy, Vlad, Santana (MIL stacks), Harper, Belt, Biggio (punt)
Second Base
1. Jorge Polanco ($4400.0) vs. Kevin Gausman: 8.23 points, 1.2 score
2. Edouard Julien ($3900.0) vs. Kevin Gausman: 7.57 points, 1.11 score
3. Marcus Semien ($5700.0) vs. Tyler Glasnow: 8.39 points, 1.05 score
4. Cavan Biggio ($2800.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 6.46 points, 1.02 score
5. Ketel Marte ($5300.0) vs. Corbin Burnes: 8.1 points, 1.02 score
The projections have been liking Jorge Polanco most of the year while he’s been healthy, and that’s true again today at $4,400. Brutal matchup, of course, but there isn’t a ton to love at this position either.
Marcus Semien is an interesting play at the high price of $5,700. It’s really tough to hit Glasnow, but Semien has the stolen base upside - and Glasnow can definitely give up some steals. So if the Rangers have a day and get into the Rays bullpen early, Semien will set up nicely there.
Cash Play: Jorge Polanco
GPP Pool: Polanco, Julien, Semien, Turang (punt)
Third Base
1. Jorge Polanco ($4400.0) vs. Kevin Gausman: 8.23 points, 1.2 score
2. Royce Lewis ($5500.0) vs. Kevin Gausman: 7.79 points, 1.1 score
3. Alec Bohm ($4300.0) vs. Jesus Luzardo: 7.33 points, 1.03 score
4. Josh Donaldson ($3800.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 6.3 points, 1.01 score
5. Jake Burger ($4400.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 6.95 points, 1.0 score
Polanco again here at the top. The dual-position eligibility probably raises his ownership, so maybe that’s a reason to fade the guy - but regardless, he’s a fine play by the price/projection. Royce Lewis is certainly an interesting target as well with his .921 OPS and 15.9 PA/HR on the year - he’s been a masher and he should be in the lineup tonight. But you can see the price is there to match, so that’s a bit tough to play against Gausman.
Luzardo has been pretty middle-of-the-road against right-handed bats with a .759 OPS allowed, that opens up a decent spot for Alec Bohm at $4,300.
Jake Burger always gives you a good shot at long ball, even though Wheeler prevents those pretty well. This is a positive park shift for the Marlins, so Burger is in play.
One other guy to highlight is Junior Caminero at $3,200, who recently got called up to the Rays and projects to be in the lineup today. In 36 PAs, he has a .631 OPS with an 11.5% Brl% and a good 22% K%. In the minors this year he went .324/.384/.591 with 31 bombs and a 19.6% K%. He certainly has homer upside, but early on he has had this problem a lot of rookies do with a 62% GB%.
Cash Play: Jorge Polanco, Alec Bohm
GPP Pool: Lewis, Burger, Chapman, Bohm, Caminero
Shortstop
1. Corey Seager ($6200.0) vs. Tyler Glasnow: 9.65 points, 1.18 score
2. Trea Turner ($5900.0) vs. Jesus Luzardo: 8.78 points, 1.14 score
3. Bo Bichette ($5000.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 8.19 points, 1.13 score
4. Willy Adames ($4400.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.05 points, 1.02 score
5. Carlos Correa ($4300.0) vs. Kevin Gausman: 7.07 points, 0.99 score
One of the best hitters on the slate is Corey Seager, and he is the top play even at $6,200 here. Trea Turner and Bo Bichette are right behind him. I like Turner for $5,900 just fine with how many different ways he can score, and we’ve already mentioned that Luzardo isn’t all that great against righties.
Cash Play: Seager, Turner
GPP Pool: Seager, Turner, Adames
Outfield
1. Christian Yelich ($4900.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.89 points, 1.27 score
2. Corbin Carroll ($6000.0) vs. Corbin Burnes: 9.47 points, 1.23 score
3. George Springer ($4600.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 8.38 points, 1.2 score
4. Randy Arozarena ($5500.0) vs. Jordan Montgomery: 8.89 points, 1.18 score
5. Max Kepler ($4200.0) vs. Kevin Gausman: 7.79 points, 1.14 score
6. Kyle Schwarber ($5600.0) vs. Jesus Luzardo: 8.05 points, 1.13 score
7. Jazz Chisholm ($5200.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 8.19 points, 1.12 score
8. Mark Canha ($3600.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.2 points, 1.08 score
9. Tommy Pham ($4200.0) vs. Corbin Burnes: 7.28 points, 1.05 score
10. Adolis Garcia ($5100.0) vs. Tyler Glasnow: 7.85 points, 1.05 score
11. Manuel Margot ($3300.0) vs. Jordan Montgomery: 6.89 points, 1.04 score
12. Jorge Soler ($4700.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 7.34 points, 1.0 score
13. Harold Ramirez ($3700.0) vs. Jordan Montgomery: 7.03 points, 0.99 score
14. Kevin Kiermaier ($2900.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 6.11 points, 0.98 score
15. Daulton Varsho ($3100.0) vs. Pablo Lopez: 6.1 points, 0.98 score
Lots of outfielders to choose from, let’s just go right into the picks.
Cash Plays: Yelich, Carroll, Arozarena, Springer, Chisholm, Canha, Pham, Margot
GPP Pool: All of the above, Schwarber, Castellanos, Wallner, Kepler, Garcia
Cash Lineup:
SP Gausman $9,800
SP Pfaadt $5,300
C Kirk $2,900
1BGuerrero Jr. $4,900
2B Polanco $4,400
3B Caminero $3,200
SS Turner $5,900
OF Yelich $4,900
OF Springer $4,600
OF Canha $3,600
Game by Game Previews
For the betting stuff, you’re going to see a lot of H+R+RBI recommendations. Note that I’ve been tracking those recommended bets, and they’ve not been profitable. The final total was -5.3 units on 396 bets. So that’s not like egregiously horrible or anything, but I can’t say these bets are +EV.
If I go into the tracker and look just at the bets that were a 0.17 bet value or better, we actually were profitable at +6 units on 245 bets. At 0.18 or better, we were +10.7 units on 181 bets. That’s pretty good actually, so let’s just focus on those bets beating the 0.18 mark.
TEX @ TB
Jon’s Thoughts
My projections are not good at picking game winners, but I feel like it’s still worth saying that I project the Rangers for more runs than the Rays today, and they are a +130 underdog. I’m going to lay a couple of bucks down on them.
I’m not sure if Evan Carter will actually make the lineup, but we have a hit on the H+R+RBI value there at 0.19 for him, so I’ll take that one.
Our best bet type of the year has been walk props (by far), and Glasnow shows up here on the over 1.5 walks. I’m throwing a unit on that one. I didn’t track the runs scored props, but I would imagine they weren’t very good - but we’re having fun here so let’s lay a little bit down on Corey Seager to score a run.
Projected Game Score:
TEX 4.5 - TB 4.08
TEX 52.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.58
2023 Pitcher Stats
Tyler Glasnow: 20 GS, 1894 Pitches, 33.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 17.2 SwStr%, 50.6 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 50.9 GB%, 12 Brl%
Jordan Montgomery: 31 GS, 2920 Pitches, 21.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, 12.4 SwStr%, 45.1 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 43.8 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Tyler Glasnow (TB): 88.0 Pitches 5.71 IP, 4.4 H, 2.4 ER, 7.9 K, 2.2 BB, 20.69 FPts
Jordan Montgomery (TEX): 89.0 Pitches 5.63 IP, 5.7 H, 2.6 ER, 4.8 K, 1.6 BB, 13.21 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Tyler Glasnow - 7.5 strikeouts
Jordan Montgomery - 4.5 strikeouts
TEX Hitter Projections
1. Marcus Semien: 4.51 PA, 1.0 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.39 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.39 PA, 1.14 H, 2.21 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.65 FPts
3. Mitch Garver: 4.32 PA, 0.76 H, 1.48 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.19 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.18 PA, 0.82 H, 1.61 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.85 FPts
5. Nathaniel Lowe: 4.12 PA, 0.91 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.21 FPts
6. Josh Jung: 3.98 PA, 0.77 H, 1.43 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.1 FPts
7. Jonah Heim: 3.85 PA, 0.78 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.22 FPts
8. Leody Taveras: 3.76 PA, 0.85 H, 1.35 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.58 FPts
9. Evan Carter: 3.55 PA, 0.68 H, 1.21 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.45 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.46 PA, 1.2 H, 1.93 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.68 FPts
2. Junior Caminero: 4.46 PA, 0.97 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.6 FPts
3. Harold Ramirez: 4.27 PA, 1.11 H, 1.62 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.03 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.25 PA, 0.98 H, 1.74 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.89 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 4.06 PA, 0.89 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.2 FPts
6. Curtis Mead: 3.92 PA, 0.87 H, 1.42 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.46 FPts
7. Manuel Margot: 3.9 PA, 0.99 H, 1.5 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.89 FPts
8. Christian Bethancourt: 3.65 PA, 0.79 H, 1.28 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.37 FPts
9. Taylor Walls: 3.51 PA, 0.65 H, 1.0 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.79 FPts
Best Bets
Evan Carter TEX - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-135.0) - 0.19 value
Tyler Glasnow TB - Walks Over 1.5 (-110.0) - 0.109 value
Corey Seager TEX - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+125.0) - 0.102 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Randy Arozarena (TB) OF $5500: 8.89 Proj, 1.18 Score
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $6200: 9.65 Proj, 1.18 Score
Yandy Diaz (TB) 1B $5400: 8.68 Proj, 1.11 Score
Marcus Semien (TEX) 2B $5700: 8.39 Proj, 1.05 Score
Mitch Garver (TEX) C $4000: 7.19 Proj, 1.05 Score
TOR @ MIN
Jon’s Thoughts
My projections lineup with the books here with Toronto as a very small favorite.
We have a hitter strikeout prop standing out with good value on Ryan Jeffers over 1.5 strikeouts +185.
And a strikeout prop pops here too, Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts -140.
Projected Game Score:
TOR 4.28 - MIN 4.0
TOR 51.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.28
2023 Pitcher Stats
Kevin Gausman: 30 GS, 3069 Pitches, 31.1 K%, 7.2 BB%, 14.3 SwStr%, 50.8 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%, 42.9 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pablo Lopez: 32 GS, 3024 Pitches, 29.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 15.6 SwStr%, 50.4 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%, 45.3 GB%, 6 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Kevin Gausman (TOR): 93.0 Pitches 5.89 IP, 4.9 H, 2.5 ER, 8.1 K, 1.9 BB, 20.99 FPts
Pablo Lopez (MIN): 96.0 Pitches 6.02 IP, 5.4 H, 2.6 ER, 6.6 K, 2.0 BB, 17.7 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Kevin Gausman - 6.5 strikeouts
Pablo Lopez - 6.5 strikeouts
TOR Hitter Projections
1. George Springer: 4.64 PA, 1.06 H, 1.75 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.38 FPts
2. Brandon Belt: 4.36 PA, 0.82 H, 1.52 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.38 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.43 PA, 1.09 H, 1.9 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.35 FPts
4. Bo Bichette: 4.32 PA, 1.14 H, 1.87 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.19 FPts
5. Cavan Biggio: 4.01 PA, 0.78 H, 1.26 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.46 FPts
6. Alejandro Kirk: 4.11 PA, 1.02 H, 1.53 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.85 FPts
7. Kevin Kiermaier: 3.82 PA, 0.84 H, 1.22 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.11 FPts
8. Matt Chapman: 3.85 PA, 0.78 H, 1.48 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.6 FPts
9. Daulton Varsho: 3.55 PA, 0.72 H, 1.26 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.1 FPts
MIN Hitter Projections
1. Edouard Julien: 4.38 PA, 0.78 H, 1.4 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.57 FPts
2. Jorge Polanco: 4.47 PA, 0.91 H, 1.71 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.23 FPts
3. Carlos Correa: 4.34 PA, 0.93 H, 1.6 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.07 FPts
4. Max Kepler: 4.17 PA, 0.95 H, 1.72 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.79 FPts
5. Royce Lewis: 4.15 PA, 0.97 H, 1.69 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.79 FPts
6. Alex Kirilloff: 3.89 PA, 0.9 H, 1.44 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.17 FPts
7. Ryan Jeffers: 3.96 PA, 0.73 H, 1.32 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.82 FPts
8. Matt Wallner: 3.59 PA, 0.63 H, 1.3 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.83 FPts
9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.35 PA, 0.61 H, 1.07 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 4.98 FPts
Best Bets
Ryan Jeffers MIN - HitterK Over 1.5 (+185.0) - 0.118 value
Kevin Gausman TOR - Strikeouts Over 6.5 (-140.0) - 0.112 value
Pablo Lopez MIN - Walks over 1.5 (+110.0) - .104 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Jorge Polanco (MIN) 2B/3B $4400: 8.23 Proj, 1.2 Score
George Springer (TOR) OF $4600: 8.38 Proj, 1.2 Score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $4900: 8.35 Proj, 1.17 Score
Alejandro Kirk (TOR) C $2900: 6.85 Proj, 1.14 Score
Max Kepler (MIN) OF $4200: 7.79 Proj, 1.14 Score
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