MLB Postseason Game Previews - October 11
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
I was going to paywall this one, but it’s the end of the year and this one was really fun to read so I want to share it with the masses. That also means I feel confident enough to drop the tip jar here! Send me some cash if you like the free content - I’m not too proud to ask for it!
This will officially be our final slate with more than two games on it for the year; a sad day indeed. We have:
5:07: Braves @ Phillies, Elder vs. Nola, PHI -122, O/U 9
7:07: Astros @ Twins, Urquidy vs. Ryan, MIN -125, O/U 8
9:07: Dodgers @ D’Backs, Lynn vs. Pfaadt, LAD -135, O/U 9.5
The Twins and Dodgers are facing elimination, but neither team is facing an overly imposing SP. It projects to be a pretty tight day of baseball action, and it’s going to be non-stop starting at 5:07. Why do all the games start on the seventh minute of the hour? I do not know. So people will tune in seven minutes early and see some extra ads or something?
Anyways let’s break this bad boy down!
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitch counts are really tough to nail down in this spot.
Joe Ryan hasn’t pitched yet this postseason and the Twins are facing elimination, which would function into a pretty quick hook if he gets in trouble
The Braves didn’t even announce Elder as the starter until this morning, and clearly, there’s going to be a lack of confidence there with his second-half performance
Jose Urquidy was basically a long reliever in the second half and the Astros have a fresh bullpen after a 9-1 blowout last night
Pfaadt doesn’t set up very well against this loaded Dodgers lineup facing elimination
I have Lynn and Nola as the top pitch counts with Ryan right behind. Anything can happen in one game, but I don’t see a ton of point in wasting DFS ownership on Elder/Pfaadt/Urquidy even if you’re multi-entering.
Full projections:
I am sticking to the top three there, and I’m having trouble even picking two of those three - they’re all super close, but Joe Ryan does have the price advantage there so my cash duo would probably be Ryan + Lynn.
Team Offense Projections:
Clear tiers here, and they are separated by game. The Braves & Phillies are at the top, and then a drop-down to Twins and Astros, and then the Astros and Diamondbacks a tier below that game.
Catchers
1. Will Smith ($4300.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.78 points, 1.1 score
2. J.T. Realmuto ($4200.0) vs. Bryce Elder: 7.82 points, 1.09 score
3. Sean Murphy ($3900.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.19 points, 1.02 score
4. Gabriel Moreno ($3400.0) vs. Lance Lynn: 6.82 points, 1.01 score
5. Ryan Jeffers ($3600.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 5.98 points, 0.84 score
First Base
1. Bryce Harper ($5200.0) vs. Bryce Elder: 9.58 points, 1.16 score
2. Freddie Freeman ($5900.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 9.59 points, 1.16 score
3. Matt Olson ($5700.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 8.87 points, 1.06 score
4. Christian Walker ($4500.0) vs. Lance Lynn: 7.72 points, 0.99 score
5. Jose Abreu ($3600.0) vs. Joe Ryan: 6.41 points, 0.88 score
Second Base
1. Mookie Betts ($6100.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 9.5 points, 1.15 score
2. Edouard Julien ($3500.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.24 points, 1.14 score
3. Jorge Polanco ($4800.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.69 points, 1.1 score
4. Bryson Stott ($3700.0) vs. Bryce Elder: 7.71 points, 1.02 score
5. Ozzie Albies ($5100.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 8.39 points, 1.01 score
Third Base
1. Jorge Polanco ($4800.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.69 points, 1.1 score
2. Max Muncy ($4400.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.94 points, 1.09 score
3. Royce Lewis ($5600.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.49 points, 1.07 score
4. Austin Riley ($4900.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 8.23 points, 1.05 score
5. Willi Castro ($3100.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 6.9 points, 1.0 score
Shortstop
1. Trea Turner ($5400.0) vs. Bryce Elder: 8.92 points, 1.13 score
2. Carlos Correa ($4100.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 7.19 points, 1.0 score
3. Orlando Arcia ($3200.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 6.14 points, 0.89 score
4. Jeremy Pena ($3300.0) vs. Joe Ryan: 5.77 points, 0.86 score
5. Miguel Rojas ($2800.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 5.42 points, 0.82 score
Outfield
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6300.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 11.64 points, 1.43 score
2. Kyle Schwarber ($4400.0) vs. Bryce Elder: 9.33 points, 1.27 score
3. Corbin Carroll ($5500.0) vs. Lance Lynn: 9.44 points, 1.19 score
4. Yordan Alvarez ($5800.0) vs. Joe Ryan: 9.67 points, 1.17 score
5. Mookie Betts ($6100.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 9.5 points, 1.15 score
6. Kyle Tucker ($5300.0) vs. Joe Ryan: 9.11 points, 1.14 score
7. Max Kepler ($3800.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.19 points, 1.14 score
8. Michael Harris II ($3600.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.87 points, 1.12 score
9. Tommy Pham ($3700.0) vs. Lance Lynn: 7.36 points, 1.05 score
10. Marcell Ozuna ($4100.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.63 points, 1.03 score
11. Matt Wallner ($3200.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 6.59 points, 1.0 score
12. Willi Castro ($3100.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 6.9 points, 1.0 score
13. J.D. Martinez ($4600.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.33 points, 0.99 score
14. Michael Brantley ($3400.0) vs. Joe Ryan: 7.09 points, 0.98 score
15. James Outman ($3400.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 6.77 points, 0.98 score
Game by Game Previews
It looks like I’m mostly in line with the sportsbook on expected pitching counts, as evidenced by not having any huge differences on the strikeout props:
I’m really low on Urquidy’s pitch count, but I think I’m right. However, if he’s really only out there for three innings then he’s going to be throwing more aggressively for strikeouts - which would make my base strikeout rate projection on him too low. So keep that in mind, we’re really gambling here if we’re taking any of these lines.
Some general stuff about betting that I think should be said. If you’re going to be a successful sports bettor, there’s really only one way to do it. You have to beat them at their own game. I just don’t believe that you can beat the books with your own head knowledge. You need to develop your own projection models that beat the sportsbook models. That’s incredibly, incredibly tough to do. I have certainly not done it. If you took every positive bet value my model spits out across all categories you would lose your ass in a hurry. Luckily for me this year, I’ve been able to beat them in a few very niche markets like walk props (and that is only true when we get the somewhat rare 10% or more differential).
There’s a good chance that will be wiped out next year if the books take the time to improve their walk model. They aren’t going to spend a ton of time and money fine-tuning markets where there’s not a lot of volume, so that’s where you have to go to beat them. But the catch-22 is that once enough people pick up on that, then the volume goes up - which red flags it to them, and then they put in the work to close that opening so you can no longer beat them. So then you have to go somewhere else. So not only do you have to have the base ability to develop strong models, you have to constantly be shifting where you’re attacking. It’s all incredibly hard and really just a bad life choice to invest any significant amount of money to attempt this whole thing.
I’ve said this repeatedly but I have to keep saying it - you should not be risking more than “fun money” on anything my models spit out. I just don’t want to lead people into that because I know it’s not a long-term sustainably profitable exercise. But I do think we can negate the losses enough to make it worth the time and effort because it’s fun. If this isn’t fun for you or you’re losing more money than you’re comfortable with - run.
Let’s get into these games now.
ATL @ PHI
This series has already been a ton of fun, and this is definitely the game to watch tonight even with neither team facing elimination. The environment in Philadelphia is just sick. It’s pretty fun to watch an inning or two with your face closer to the TV than normal and with the volume extremely loud. My wife loves when I do that, believe me.
Bryce Elder was a clear mid-season sell, and in the second-half he put up a 5.11 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP on a 16% K% in 13 starts. Bad stuff. The GB% even fell from 56% in the first half to 43% in the second. And a guy with this little strikeout ability just isn’t going to have sustained success in the Majors without the ability to keep the ball out of the air at a very positive rate.
Splits vs. Elder (2022-2023)
RHB: 1,859 pitches, 22.2% K%, 8.4% BB%, 13.1% SwStr%, 6% Brl%, .355 SLG
LHB: 1,863 pitches, 14.5% K%, 9.1% BB%, 8.6% SwStr%, 6% Brl%, .398 SLGSo lefties put more balls in play, but the Brl% and SLG stuff isn’t much different. He should still be viewed as a guy that is tough to homer off of, so I’m not jumping in on Phillies homers or huge DFS stacks or anything like that - although if you’re playing DFS you probably do want to stack some Phillies/Braves/Dodgers in multi-lineup situations.
We know pretty much everything about Aaron Nola, we’ve seen more of him over the last five years than almost any pitcher. The Braves know him quite well too. He doesn’t have a significant splits differential, and it’s just really about what kind of specific command and luck he has on any given night. There’s no reason to do more analysis for Nola like we did with Elder there.
I don’t have any bets to put my name on here. Eddie Rosario over 0.5 H+R+RBI is here again, but at -170 what’s the real point of that - and he was pinch hit for by Kevin Pillar after just two PAs last time. My model builds that probability in, but it’s probably understating that because it’s using just regular season games where teams are probably less aggressive with their pinch hitting and defensive substitutions.
Projected Game Score:
ATL 5.26 - PHI 4.8
ATL 52.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 10.06
2023 Pitcher Stats
Aaron Nola: 32 GS, 3087 Pitches, 25.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 12.8 SwStr%, 49.6 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%, 43.1 GB%, 8 Brl%
Bryce Elder: 31 GS, 2849 Pitches, 17.5 K%, 8.5 BB%, 10.9 SwStr%, 44.1 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 50.6 GB%, 6 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Aaron Nola (PHI): 85.0 Pitches 5.12 IP, 5.3 H, 2.6 ER, 5.2 K, 1.3 BB, 13.37 FPts
Bryce Elder (ATL): 68.0 Pitches 4.22 IP, 4.3 H, 2.2 ER, 3.6 K, 1.7 BB, 9.4 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Aaron Nola - 4.5 strikeouts
Bryce Elder - 3.5 strikeouts
ATL Hitter Projections
1. Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.49 PA, 1.22 H, 2.17 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.34 SB, 11.64 FPts
2. Ozzie Albies: 4.41 PA, 1.07 H, 1.82 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.39 FPts
3. Austin Riley: 4.31 PA, 1.03 H, 1.88 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.23 FPts
4. Matt Olson: 4.2 PA, 0.94 H, 1.87 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.87 FPts
5. Marcell Ozuna: 4.08 PA, 0.92 H, 1.77 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.63 FPts
6. Sean Murphy: 3.99 PA, 0.87 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.19 FPts
7. Eddie Rosario: 3.66 PA, 0.86 H, 1.47 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.53 FPts
8. Orlando Arcia: 3.75 PA, 0.83 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.14 FPts
9. Michael Harris II: 3.51 PA, 0.98 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.87 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.61 PA, 0.81 H, 1.79 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.33 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.47 PA, 1.09 H, 1.78 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.92 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.33 PA, 1.02 H, 1.83 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.58 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 4.29 PA, 1.04 H, 1.57 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.14 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.17 PA, 1.03 H, 1.56 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.71 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 4.05 PA, 0.94 H, 1.64 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.82 FPts
7. Nick Castellanos: 3.94 PA, 0.92 H, 1.57 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.84 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.72 PA, 0.8 H, 1.28 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.75 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.54 PA, 0.74 H, 0.99 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.38 FPts
Best Bets
Eddie Rosario ATL - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-170.0) - 0.165 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) OF $6300: 11.64 Proj, 1.43 Score
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $4400: 9.33 Proj, 1.27 Score
Bryce Harper (PHI) 1B $5200: 9.58 Proj, 1.16 Score
Trea Turner (PHI) SS $5400: 8.92 Proj, 1.13 Score
Michael Harris II (ATL) OF $3600: 7.87 Proj, 1.12 Score
HOU @ MIN
We should see a good amount of the Astros bullpen in this spot. Yesterday they used Hunter Brown (22 pitches), Rafael Montero (15), Bryan Abreu (12), and Phil Maton (10) out of the pen. Brown is probably down today but that would be it. Their bullpen is good but not great, it definitely wasn’t a huge strong point for them this year - so this is about as good a spot for the Twins as you’re going to find in the playoffs. They’re given the slight advantage at home by model and the sports books.
Splits vs. Urquidy (2022-2023):
RHB: 18% K%, 7% BB%, 11.6% SwStr%, 10% Brl%, .347 xwOBA, .467 SLG
LHB: 20% K%, 6% BB%, 12.4% SwStr%, 7.6% Brl%, .294 xwOBA, .410 SLGI’m skeptical that “reverse splits” are a real thing. My belief is that if Urquidy pitched 10,000 PA’s against both sides of the plate, eventually lefties would end up ahead of righties - but I could be wrong, and I can’t deny that righties have hit him better the last two years than lefties have.
The Twins love to pinch hit, and they’ve constantly been playing platoon advantages this year, moreso than most other teams. However, the Astros only lefty on the roster is Framber Valdez, so there is no real risk of guys like Edouard Julien getting yanked mid-game, what you see in this lineup is probably what you’ll get.
Splits vs. Joe Ryan (2022-2023):
RHB: 32% K%, 5% BB%, 16.4% SwStr%, 11% Brl%, .293 xwOBA, .476 SLG
LHB: 22% K%, 7.7% BB%, 11.3% SwStr%, 6.6% Brl%, .279 xwOBA, .355 SLGSome reverse-splitsy stuff here too, although it’s mixed. The righties have struck out a bunch but have hit for power, while lefties make much more contact but it’s not as loud. Ryan is a fly baller (34% FB% since 2022, that is sixth-highest in the league for SPs with 25+ starts), so that sets up well for the Astros power bats like Yordan Alvarez (33% FB%), Kyle Tucker (35%), Alex Bregman (32%), Chas McComrick (31%), and hey even Martin Maldonado (30%) can get a ball in the air.
Obviously we’re going to want a good amount of this Astros lineup in DFS multi-entry situations because of their upside, but Joe Ryan sitting them down is a distinct possibility as well, he’s a very good pitcher overall.
Betting-wise, we like the under on Urquidy, although I did mention above that my model probably isn’t quite high enough on his base K% because he’ll be going a little bit more effort here if he really is only out there for a couple innings (meaning that if my pitch count is right, I should probably upgrade his K%), but I have to make some recommendations here so let’s take that Urquidy under 3.5 strikeouts at -115.
The model also likes Kyle Tucker (+170) and Alex Bregman (+140) to avoid a strikeout here. We saw above that Ryan is a league-average strikeout pitcher against lefties, so +170 on Tucker feels nice. As for Bregman, he just makes a bunch of contact all the time. He has a 90% Contact% this post-season, and he’s routinely one of the higher guys in that stat (although he does take a good number of strikes). But we don’t really have to get into the details with these prop bets because the model already factors all of that in.
Personally, I’m a Twins fan this postseason so I’m really hoping they can find a way to get a win here and force a very fun game five - although the Astros would be a pretty large favorite in that spot back at home with Verlander ready to go and the Twins probably going with Pablo Lopez on short rest.
Projected Game Score:
MIN 4.65 - HOU 4.36
MIN 51.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 9.01
2023 Pitcher Stats
Joe Ryan: 29 GS, 2683 Pitches, 29.2 K%, 5.1 BB%, 14.8 SwStr%, 52.6 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%, 33.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Jose Urquidy: 10 GS, 1096 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%, 36.5 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Joe Ryan (MIN): 80.0 Pitches 5.01 IP, 4.7 H, 2.4 ER, 5.1 K, 1.6 BB, 13.62 FPts
Jose Urquidy (HOU): 52.0 Pitches 3.31 IP, 3.2 H, 1.7 ER, 2.9 K, 1.4 BB, 7.57 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Joe Ryan - 4.5 strikeouts
Jose Urquidy - 3.5 strikeouts
HOU Hitter Projections
1. Jose Altuve: 4.3 PA, 1.0 H, 1.74 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.3 FPts
2. Alex Bregman: 4.29 PA, 0.97 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.42 FPts
3. Yordan Alvarez: 4.21 PA, 1.11 H, 2.18 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.67 FPts
4. Kyle Tucker: 4.09 PA, 1.01 H, 1.82 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.18 SB, 9.11 FPts
5. Jose Abreu: 3.99 PA, 0.89 H, 1.49 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.41 FPts
6. Michael Brantley: 3.92 PA, 1.1 H, 1.67 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.09 FPts
7. Chas McCormick: 3.78 PA, 0.84 H, 1.48 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.84 FPts
8. Jeremy Pena: 3.67 PA, 0.82 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.77 FPts
9. Martin Maldonado: 3.28 PA, 0.51 H, 0.92 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.03 FPts
MIN Hitter Projections
1. Edouard Julien: 4.21 PA, 0.82 H, 1.48 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.24 FPts
2. Jorge Polanco: 4.31 PA, 0.93 H, 1.73 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.69 FPts
3. Max Kepler: 4.1 PA, 0.96 H, 1.73 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.19 FPts
4. Royce Lewis: 4.09 PA, 1.01 H, 1.77 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.49 FPts
5. Carlos Correa: 3.97 PA, 0.91 H, 1.58 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.19 FPts
6. Alex Kirilloff: 3.74 PA, 0.91 H, 1.46 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.42 FPts
7. Matt Wallner: 3.58 PA, 0.69 H, 1.41 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.59 FPts
8. Willi Castro: 3.69 PA, 0.82 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.18 SB, 6.9 FPts
9. Ryan Jeffers: 3.46 PA, 0.71 H, 1.3 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.98 FPts
Best Bets
Martin Maldonado HOU - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.172 value
Jose Urquidy HOU - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (-115.0) - 0.137 value
Kyle Tucker HOU - HitterK Under 0.5 (+170.0) - 0.107 value
Alex Bregman HOU - HitterK Under 0.5 (+140.0) - 0.105 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) OF $5800: 9.67 Proj, 1.17 Score
Max Kepler (MIN) OF $3800: 8.19 Proj, 1.14 Score
Kyle Tucker (HOU) OF $5300: 9.11 Proj, 1.14 Score
Edouard Julien (MIN) 2B $3500: 8.24 Proj, 1.14 Score
Jorge Polanco (MIN) 2B/3B $4800: 8.69 Proj, 1.1 Score
LAD @ ARI
I’m a little surprised the Dodgers aren’t a bigger favorite here against Pfaadt. Lance Lynn had a pretty bad year overall, but did have some success after arriving in LA. It’s very much notable that Lynn’s strikeout rate was just 17% (unheard of for him in his career) with the Dodgers. That’s probably small-sample stuff, and his base K% projection is still much higher than that, but he did change the arsenal a bit after arriving - so maybe the Dodgers are okay with him pitching more to contact.
The result was bad for Pfaadt in his first outing (he pitched game one of their wild card series), but he did have a very impressive 20.9% SwStr% and a 52.2% in that spot. He just gave up a .600 BABIP and a homer that really crushed him. He’s prone to giving up the long ball with a very low 33% GB% and an 11.7% Brl% allowed in the Majors this year. He doesn’t project well against a tough lineup in LA, and I don’t think he’s going to have much of a leash even with the two game lead in the series.
The model likes the over on outs for both of these pitchers even with my less than aggressive pitch count projections. Lynn is a guy that has been hit around a bunch this year, and the Dodgers cannot afford a loss here, but the line here is 11.5 outs, meaning he just needs to go four innings to cash that. Getting a little overly-granular here, the D’Backs posted just a 6.2% Brl% as a team against righties this year, which is certainly Lynn’s weakness. So they aren’t in the best spot to hit a couple of dingers and knock him out early - so I’ll lean into that Lance Lynn over 11.5 outs -130 bet, let’s go for it.
That’s the only one I’m going for. A little #GutBet here is that the Dodgers should be more than -135 on the moneyline, so we can sprinkle some there. Why not even just do a full money line parlay for funsies
Braves +105
Twins -125
Dodgers -135
That turns into a +542, which is me risking one nitro cold brew daddy to potentially win seven of them.
Projected Game Score:
LAD 4.74 - ARI 4.16
LAD 53.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 8.9
2023 Pitcher Stats
Lance Lynn: 32 GS, 3167 Pitches, 23.6 K%, 8.2 BB%, 14.3 SwStr%, 46.6 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 36.3 GB%, 10 Brl%
Brandon Pfaadt: 18 GS, 1612 Pitches, 22.3 K%, 6.2 BB%, 12.3 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 32.6 GB%, 12 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Lance Lynn (LAD): 84.0 Pitches 5.23 IP, 5.0 H, 2.5 ER, 4.6 K, 1.6 BB, 12.67 FPts
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 72.0 Pitches 4.41 IP, 4.6 H, 2.4 ER, 3.7 K, 1.6 BB, 9.23 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Lance Lynn - 3.5 strikeouts
Brandon Pfaadt - 3.5 strikeouts
LAD Hitter Projections
1. Mookie Betts: 4.3 PA, 1.08 H, 2.01 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.5 FPts
2. Freddie Freeman: 4.23 PA, 1.17 H, 2.02 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.59 FPts
3. Will Smith: 4.22 PA, 0.97 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.78 FPts
4. Max Muncy: 4.04 PA, 0.77 H, 1.57 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.94 FPts
5. J.D. Martinez: 3.95 PA, 0.91 H, 1.73 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.33 FPts
6. Jason Heyward: 3.51 PA, 0.79 H, 1.36 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.24 FPts
7. David Peralta: 3.47 PA, 0.83 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.65 FPts
8. James Outman: 3.59 PA, 0.75 H, 1.3 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.77 FPts
9. Miguel Rojas: 3.27 PA, 0.78 H, 1.15 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.42 FPts
ARI Hitter Projections
1. Corbin Carroll: 4.54 PA, 1.06 H, 1.79 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.29 SB, 9.44 FPts
2. Ketel Marte: 4.45 PA, 1.02 H, 1.7 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.01 FPts
3. Tommy Pham: 4.24 PA, 0.88 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.36 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.21 PA, 0.93 H, 1.73 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.72 FPts
5. Gabriel Moreno: 4.16 PA, 1.04 H, 1.51 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.82 FPts
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 4.03 PA, 0.97 H, 1.56 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.63 FPts
7. Alek Thomas: 3.82 PA, 0.86 H, 1.34 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.85 FPts
8. Evan Longoria: 3.52 PA, 0.68 H, 1.28 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.62 FPts
9. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.55 PA, 0.65 H, 0.92 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.3 FPts
Best Bets
Lance Lynn LAD - Outs Over 11.5 (-130.0) - 0.292 value
Brandon Pfaadt ARI - Outs Over 12.5 (+130.0) - 0.127 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Corbin Carroll (ARI) OF $5500: 9.44 Proj, 1.19 Score
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1B $5900: 9.59 Proj, 1.16 Score
Mookie Betts (LAD) 2B/OF $6100: 9.5 Proj, 1.15 Score
Will Smith (LAD) C $4300: 7.78 Proj, 1.1 Score
Max Muncy (LAD) 3B $4400: 7.94 Proj, 1.09 Score
DFS Lock Buttons
Yordan Alvarez $5,800
Joe Ryan $8,100
Lance Lynn $8,500
Aaron Nola $9,600
You can’t really lock button three pitchers, but I’ll probably go about 40% Ryan, 40% Lynn, and 20% Nola.
DFS Value Picks
Max Kepler $3,800
Edouard Julien $3,500
Michael Harris $3,600
Tommy Pham $3,700
Willi Castro $3,100
Matt Wallner $3,200
So, basically the Twins lefties.
Bets Taken
ATL+MIN+LAD moneylines, +542 (not algorithm-based)
Lance Lynn over 11.5 outs, -130 (this is -160 now so that’s gross)
Jose Urquidy under 3.5 K -115
Kyle Tucker under 0.5 K +170
Alex Bregman under 0.5 K +140
Here is hoping for a fun (and hopefully slightly profitable!) night of baseball! Thanks for checking out the post, it’s been a fun one to read!