MLB Postseason Game Previews - October 9
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Review
I’m not really buying all the talk about the days off hurting the top seeds. We hardly have any data on that, so all we have here are anecdotes and assumptions. Obviously playing baseball for seven months having one significant break, and then having five straight days off is going to be something to a player, but it’s not like these dudes are laid up in bed all week. I’m sure they’re all taking swings and BP and whatnot. And I would imagine that any bit of “rustiness” would be offset by the value of the rest - they clearly are coming into that game in better health than usual with the four or five days off to take care of whatever they need to.
But that’s all the talk, and baseball will probably change the playoffs again because of it. The best way to go would be just to have four teams from each league go to the playoffs, play like a nine-game series, and give the top overall seeds a 1-0 lead from the beginning. It’s pretty ridiculous from a fairness standpoint that an 85-win team can take two of three from a 105-win team and knock them out. But the end goal here isn’t really fairness as much as entertainment (and therefore $$$), and that’s fine - I’m not even complaining about that, we have to live in reality here. But I do wish they’d pick something and stick with it (and honestly I kind of miss the one-game wild cards).
Pablo Lopez showed up big and the Twins jumped on Framber Valdez to even that series at 1-1. He’s been great in both of his playoff outings and he could be a household name by the end of all of this. The Twins are still an underdog in the series even taking a 1-1 tie back to Minnesota for two games. I don’t see a ton to love in the Astros pitching rotation until they get back to Verlander - and I don’t even really like Verlander all that much for what he’s done this year, so I really do think the Twins can take this thing down. But that’s only mentioning half the game - and Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker are certainly tough to keep off the board for a five-game series.
The Orioles out-hit the Rangers 14-11, seven of which were extra base hits (the Rangers only had two extra base hits), but lost 11-8.
That is not to mention that the Orioles walked 11 Rangers - lol. So that’s 22 hits plus walks given up, not something you’re going to be able to overcome very often.
The O’s fans love to blame the off days and the umps, but I don’t know bro #ThrowStrikes.
We are down to just two-game slates now, although we could have another four-gamer on Thursday if things go right. But I figured that’s enough to throw out a post here, but it’ll be short and sweet.
I can’t recommend playing DFS at all with just two games, but a Python script does all the typing here for me so here are those top plays you’re used to seeing:
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Max Fried $8000.0 vs. PHI: 17.27 points
Zack Wheeler $8800.0 vs. ATL: 15.17 points
Zac Gallen $8500.0 vs. LAD: 14.29 points
Bobby Miller $6900.0 vs. ARI: 13.67 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Max Fried $8000.0 vs. PHI: 17.27 points, 2.16 value
Bobby Miller $6900.0 vs. ARI: 13.67 points, 1.98 value
Zack Wheeler $8800.0 vs. ATL: 15.17 points, 1.72 value
Zac Gallen $8500.0 vs. LAD: 14.29 points, 1.68 value
Catchers
1. Will Smith ($4500.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 7.95 points, 1.09 score
2. Gabriel Moreno ($3100.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 7.12 points, 1.08 score
3. J.T. Realmuto ($4200.0) vs. Max Fried: 7.42 points, 1.01 score
4. Sean Murphy ($3900.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 6.53 points, 0.9 score
First Base
1. Freddie Freeman ($6000.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 9.22 points, 1.12 score
2. Christian Walker ($4300.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 8.18 points, 1.07 score
3. Matt Olson ($5800.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 8.35 points, 1.0 score
4. Bryce Harper ($5000.0) vs. Max Fried: 7.72 points, 0.96 score
Second Base
1. Mookie Betts ($6200.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 9.78 points, 1.2 score
2. Ketel Marte ($4400.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 7.95 points, 1.03 score
3. Ozzie Albies ($5100.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 8.07 points, 0.98 score
4. Bryson Stott ($3800.0) vs. Max Fried: 6.29 points, 0.84 score
Third Base
1. Max Muncy ($4200.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 7.8 points, 1.13 score
2. Austin Riley ($4800.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 7.86 points, 1.04 score
3. Evan Longoria ($2800.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 5.94 points, 0.99 score
4. Alec Bohm ($3700.0) vs. Max Fried: 6.8 points, 0.92 score
Shortstop
1. Trea Turner ($5200.0) vs. Max Fried: 8.18 points, 1.1 score
2. Miguel Rojas ($2600.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 5.45 points, 0.91 score
3. Orlando Arcia ($3200.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 5.61 points, 0.85 score
4. Geraldo Perdomo ($3200.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 5.33 points, 0.79 score
Outfield
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6500.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 11.0 points, 1.39 score
2. Corbin Carroll ($5600.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 9.44 points, 1.25 score
3. Michael Harris II ($3800.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 8.45 points, 1.24 score
4. Mookie Betts ($6200.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 9.78 points, 1.2 score
5. Tommy Pham ($3700.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 7.58 points, 1.14 score
6. J.D. Martinez ($4300.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 7.32 points, 1.07 score
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3500.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 6.98 points, 1.04 score
8. Marcell Ozuna ($4000.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 7.3 points, 1.03 score
9. Kyle Schwarber ($4600.0) vs. Max Fried: 7.38 points, 1.02 score
10. James Outman ($3600.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 6.57 points, 0.98 score
11. Eddie Rosario ($3300.0) vs. Zack Wheeler: 6.22 points, 0.93 score
12. Alek Thomas ($2900.0) vs. Bobby Miller: 5.96 points, 0.92 score
13. Jason Heyward ($3100.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 6.11 points, 0.92 score
14. Nick Castellanos ($4100.0) vs. Max Fried: 6.24 points, 0.88 score
15. David Peralta ($3000.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 5.68 points, 0.85 score
Game by Game Previews
PHI @ ATL
Jon’s Thoughts
Huge game for the Braves. It would be pretty devastating to go down 0-2 and then fly to Philadelphia after burning Strider and Fried. They are a -162 favorite tonight as Fried takes on Wheeler. My model agrees with that assessment.
I believe in Fried tonight, so I gave him a pitch count of 93 - which spits out 6.25 strikeouts against the Phillies. That’s a hit on the over 4.5 K -125 line, so we’ll lean into that one.
We like the over 14.5 outs there too, but like we talked about before - that’s basically the same bet as the strikeout line.
The reason for the difference here is probably the blister. He hasn’t pitched since September 21st and finished the regular season on the IL with a blister issue. We’ve seen over and over again these blisters be recurrent problems, and that could end his outing early - so let’s not go overboard with any of these bets. But if he can get over 90 pitches we’ll very likely cash these lines.
I’m not all about that Eddie Rosario H+R+RBI line, but it does hit in the model. Just doesn’t seem entertaining at all to hope for a small return on boring Eddie Rosario hitting a bloop single. PASS.
Projected Game Score:
ATL 4.88 - PHI 3.62
ATL 57.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8
Projected Total: 8.5
2023 Pitcher Stats
Max Fried: 14 GS, 1244 Pitches, 25.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 46.2 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%, 59.2 GB%, 4 Brl%
Zack Wheeler: 32 GS, 3155 Pitches, 26.8 K%, 5.0 BB%, 14.7 SwStr%, 48.8 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 5 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Max Fried (ATL): 93.0 Pitches 5.73 IP, 5.4 H, 2.5 ER, 6.2 K, 1.4 BB, 17.27 FPts
Zack Wheeler (PHI): 90.0 Pitches 5.61 IP, 5.8 H, 2.8 ER, 6.0 K, 1.4 BB, 15.17 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Max Fried - 4.5 strikeouts
Zack Wheeler - 5.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.45 PA, 0.77 H, 1.55 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.38 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.31 PA, 1.07 H, 1.71 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.18 FPts
3. Alec Bohm: 4.24 PA, 1.05 H, 1.6 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.8 FPts
4. Bryce Harper: 4.09 PA, 0.92 H, 1.53 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.72 FPts
5. J.T. Realmuto: 4.01 PA, 0.93 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.42 FPts
6. Nick Castellanos: 3.92 PA, 0.92 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.24 FPts
7. Bryson Stott: 3.81 PA, 0.92 H, 1.31 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.29 FPts
8. Cristian Pache: 3.36 PA, 0.61 H, 0.95 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.25 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.41 PA, 0.73 H, 0.97 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.15 SB, 4.91 FPts
ATL Hitter Projections
1. Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.53 PA, 1.2 H, 2.03 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.35 SB, 11.0 FPts
2. Ozzie Albies: 4.44 PA, 1.04 H, 1.71 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.07 FPts
3. Austin Riley: 4.34 PA, 1.02 H, 1.79 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.86 FPts
4. Matt Olson: 4.23 PA, 0.91 H, 1.74 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.35 FPts
5. Marcell Ozuna: 4.11 PA, 0.89 H, 1.66 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.3 FPts
6. Michael Harris II: 4.02 PA, 1.13 H, 1.84 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.45 FPts
7. Sean Murphy: 3.91 PA, 0.82 H, 1.44 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.53 FPts
8. Eddie Rosario: 3.57 PA, 0.83 H, 1.37 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.22 FPts
9. Orlando Arcia: 3.55 PA, 0.78 H, 1.24 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.61 FPts
Best Bets
Max Fried ATL - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-125.0) - 0.191 value
Max Fried ATL - Outs Over 14.5 (-120.0) - 0.189 value
Eddie Rosario ATL - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.148 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) OF $6500: 11.0 Proj, 1.39 Score
Michael Harris II (ATL) OF $3800: 8.45 Proj, 1.24 Score
Trea Turner (PHI) SS $5200: 8.18 Proj, 1.1 Score
Austin Riley (ATL) 3B $4800: 7.86 Proj, 1.04 Score
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) OF $4000: 7.3 Proj, 1.03 Score
ARI @ LAD
Jon’s Thoughts
Big moment for Bobby Miller here. He finished the year pitching really, really well - but this will a pretty unmatched environment for him and that stuff probably does matter a bit.
I have him at 87 pitches, and that might feel a little bit generous. I actually have him for 4.7 strikeouts and his line is 5.5, but the under is -170 so the math doesn’t work for us there.
I don’t really like any of these bets, so I think I’ll sit it out, I’m going to be asleep by the sixth inning of this bad boy anyways.
Projected Game Score:
LAD 4.54 - ARI 4.22
LAD 51.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8
Projected Total: 8.76
2023 Pitcher Stats
Zac Gallen: 34 GS, 3248 Pitches, 25.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 46.8 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%, 42.3 GB%, 9 Brl%
Bobby Miller: 22 GS, 1961 Pitches, 23.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 47.4 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%, 47.7 GB%, 6 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Zac Gallen (ARI): 93.0 Pitches 5.69 IP, 5.5 H, 2.8 ER, 5.5 K, 2.0 BB, 14.29 FPts
Bobby Miller (LAD): 87.0 Pitches 5.68 IP, 5.5 H, 2.6 ER, 4.9 K, 1.7 BB, 13.67 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Zac Gallen - 4.5 strikeouts
Bobby Miller - 5.5 strikeouts
ARI Hitter Projections
1. Corbin Carroll: 4.58 PA, 1.05 H, 1.73 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.31 SB, 9.44 FPts
2. Ketel Marte: 4.5 PA, 1.02 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.95 FPts
3. Tommy Pham: 4.29 PA, 0.9 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.58 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.26 PA, 0.96 H, 1.82 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.18 FPts
5. Gabriel Moreno: 4.2 PA, 1.06 H, 1.54 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.12 FPts
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 4.08 PA, 1.0 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.98 FPts
7. Alek Thomas: 3.86 PA, 0.87 H, 1.35 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.96 FPts
8. Evan Longoria: 3.56 PA, 0.7 H, 1.35 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.94 FPts
9. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.59 PA, 0.66 H, 0.93 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.33 FPts
LAD Hitter Projections
1. Mookie Betts: 4.38 PA, 1.1 H, 2.1 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.78 FPts
2. Freddie Freeman: 4.32 PA, 1.15 H, 1.95 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.22 FPts
3. Will Smith: 4.3 PA, 0.99 H, 1.71 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.95 FPts
4. Max Muncy: 4.12 PA, 0.75 H, 1.52 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.8 FPts
5. J.D. Martinez: 4.03 PA, 0.88 H, 1.72 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.32 FPts
6. Jason Heyward: 3.58 PA, 0.78 H, 1.33 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.11 FPts
7. David Peralta: 3.55 PA, 0.83 H, 1.3 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.68 FPts
8. James Outman: 3.66 PA, 0.73 H, 1.26 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.57 FPts
9. Miguel Rojas: 3.34 PA, 0.79 H, 1.17 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.45 FPts
Best Bets
Bobby Miller LAD - Outs Over 15.5 (+130.0) - 0.197 value
Geraldo Perdomo ARI - HitterK Under 0.5 (+195.0) - 0.153 value
Zac Gallen ARI - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-105.0) - 0.137 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Corbin Carroll (ARI) OF $5600: 9.44 Proj, 1.25 Score
Mookie Betts (LAD) 2B/OF $6200: 9.78 Proj, 1.2 Score
Tommy Pham (ARI) OF $3700: 7.58 Proj, 1.14 Score
Max Muncy (LAD) 3B $4200: 7.8 Proj, 1.13 Score
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1B $6000: 9.22 Proj, 1.12 Score
That’s it, enjoy the games!