MLB Postseason Game Previews - October 4
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Review of Yesterday
The bet recommendations I put out were insanely good, so that’s lucky. Went 9-3 and six of those were positive moneylines.
Walks:
Pablo Lopez over 1.5 +110 ✔
Tyler Glasnow over 1.5 -110 ✔Strikeouts:
Kevin Gausman over 6.5 -140H+R+RBI:
Jake Burger over 0.5 -175 ✔
Evan Carter over 0.5 -135 ✔Hitter K:
Geraldo Perdomo under 0.5 +210 ✔Jon Berti under 0.5 +200Ryan Jeffers over 1.5 +185Runs Scored:
Corey Seager over 0.5 +125 ✔Games:
PHI -1.5 ✔
ARI ML +150 ✔
TEX ML +130 ✔
So obviously I am the greatest MLB handicapper in history. But if my recommendations lose today, that’s just bad luck.
Here is the full picture on the SP side:
Wheeler was very, very good to get the Phillies a pretty easy game-one victory. Huge 18% SwStr%, incredibly tiny .153 xwOBA allowed - great stuff from him.
Burnes, Gausman, and Pfaadt really struggled. Burnes gave up three barrels and homers on all of them as the Diamondbacks jumped on him and held on for the win. Gausman got Royce Lewis’d twice, which was all Lopez+Varland+Thielbar+Jax+Duran needed.
Here’s how that Twins pitching shook out yesterday, hitting you with some raw data here:
Maybe they would have preferred one more inning out of Lopez so as to not have used all three of those big bullpen arms when they might need to cover three games in three days, but none of them threw many pitches and they got the win - so the Twins have to be thrilled with how that went.
Dingers yesterday:
Royce Lewis (2)
Tyrone Taylor
Ketel Marte
Gabriel Moreno
Corbin Carroll
Barrels yesterday:
Lewis (2), Josh Bell (2), Yandy, Vlad, Tyrone Taylor, Trea Turner, Chapman, Marte, Moreno, Seager, Carroll, Walker, Santana
World Series Odds movement:
Four elimination games today now, the stakes are high! Let’s check out this slate today.
DFS Preview
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers
More “good” arms than great ones pitching today. Freddy Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in the league for several months now, since July 1st:
14 GS, 18.3% SwStr%, 36.7% K%, 6.2% BB%, .243 xwOBA
So he’s the clear top arm there. You’re going to see him a lot below in the betting section, and I think that’s because I am projecting him for more pitches than the books are. I have him over on the outs, strikeouts, and walks and the bet values are all really popping. Maybe a 93 pitch projection is too high, because yes - facing elimination, you’re pretty quick to get rid of a pitcher who isn’t doing well. However, Peralta has been just so, so good lately and it’s not like the Brewers have anyone great to come in for him if they need to cover several innings. I don’t want to like stake my whole day on Peralta pitching deep into the game and pitching well, but he’s clearly the top arm going today.
In terms of the prices, Jose Berrios $7,600 is right there with Peralta at a 2.04 value mark. Berrios has been more average this year than anything else, but the Twins whiff a bunch. Eovaldi $7,800, Garrett $6,700, and Nola $8,000 are right around the same value mark - and then Gallen/Eflin/Gray seem too expensive for the projection.
I think it’s fair to prefer the SPs on teams that won game one, since there’s a bit less urgency to pull them if they get into some trouble early on.
My SP rankings on this slate:
Peralta $9,000
Gallen $9,200
Nola $8,000
Eovaldi $7,800
Berrios $7,600
Gray $8,300
Eflin $8,800
Garrett $6,700
The team hitting projections are insanely tight. Every team is projected between 61 and 64 DraftKings points, which is hard to freaking believe for me - that’s really wild:
Vegas implied runs:
PHI 4.44
TB 4.32
MIN 4.29
MIL 3.93
TOR 3.71
TEX 3.68
ARI 3.57
MIA 3.56
Pretty tight there but it does push us toward playing the Phillies against Garrett and that bad bullpen. I don’t expect Garrett to get very deep into this game, and the Phillies are certainly one of the better lineups here - especially after you get that left-handed starter out of there. Garrett might end up functioning more like an opener than a traditional starter. He threw just 77 pitches last time out, and they Marlins have their backs against the wall. I could see him being in there just to face Schwarber & Harper twice and then exiting - so the Phillies are my favorite offense to attack for sure.
The Rays project pretty well against Eovaldi, who hasn’t been right for awhile it would seem.
Eovaldi
April-June: 16 GS, 13% SwStr%, 24.8% K%, 5.7% BB%
July-Sep: 9 GS, 11.8% SwStr%, 18.2% K%, 14.1% BB%
It’s been bad the whole way through with just an 11.2% SwStr% in his last four, but that has come with an improved 22.1% K% and 13.0% BB% (still pretty bad numbers). Eovaldi might not last long in this spot at all, so I’d be off of him in DFS and fine with some Rays bats.
Catchers
1. William Contreras ($4600.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 8.1 points, 1.16 score
2. J.T. Realmuto ($4800.0) vs. Braxton Garrett: 8.02 points, 1.14 score
3. Alejandro Kirk ($3000.0) vs. Sonny Gray: 6.79 points, 1.1 score
4. Gabriel Moreno ($3100.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 6.7 points, 1.07 score
5. Ryan Jeffers ($3500.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 6.13 points, 0.92 score
First Base
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4900.0) vs. Sonny Gray: 8.31 points, 1.15 score
2. Yandy Diaz ($5200.0) vs. Nathan Eovaldi: 8.36 points, 1.11 score
3. Brandon Belt ($3800.0) vs. Sonny Gray: 7.47 points, 1.1 score
4. Bryce Harper ($5800.0) vs. Braxton Garrett: 8.27 points, 1.08 score
5. Luis Arraez ($4500.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.95 points, 1.03 score
Second Base
1. Jorge Polanco ($4600.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 8.45 points, 1.17 score
2. Edouard Julien ($4400.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 7.93 points, 1.08 score
3. Ketel Marte ($5100.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 8.15 points, 1.03 score
4. Luis Arraez ($4500.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.95 points, 1.03 score
5. Isaac Paredes ($4400.0) vs. Nathan Eovaldi: 7.15 points, 1.02 score
Third Base
1. Royce Lewis ($4700.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 8.26 points, 1.2 score
2. Jorge Polanco ($4600.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 8.45 points, 1.17 score
3. Jake Burger ($4300.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.34 points, 1.1 score
4. Alec Bohm ($4400.0) vs. Braxton Garrett: 7.33 points, 1.0 score
5. Josh Donaldson ($3500.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 6.19 points, 0.98 score
Shortstop
1. Corey Seager ($6300.0) vs. Zach Eflin: 8.89 points, 1.12 score
2. Trea Turner ($6000.0) vs. Braxton Garrett: 8.83 points, 1.12 score
3. Bo Bichette ($5300.0) vs. Sonny Gray: 8.11 points, 1.07 score
4. Jon Berti ($3200.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 6.65 points, 0.99 score
5. Willy Adames ($4100.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 6.88 points, 0.98 score
Outfield
1. Corbin Carroll ($5900.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 9.54 points, 1.23 score
2. Christian Yelich ($4900.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 8.81 points, 1.2 score
3. Jazz Chisholm ($5000.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 8.48 points, 1.2 score
4. Randy Arozarena ($5400.0) vs. Nathan Eovaldi: 8.77 points, 1.19 score
5. Josh Lowe ($4500.0) vs. Nathan Eovaldi: 8.29 points, 1.18 score
6. George Springer ($4700.0) vs. Sonny Gray: 8.32 points, 1.15 score
7. Kyle Schwarber ($5500.0) vs. Braxton Garrett: 8.23 points, 1.13 score
8. Max Kepler ($4300.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 7.83 points, 1.11 score
9. Jose Siri ($3600.0) vs. Nathan Eovaldi: 6.91 points, 1.06 score
10. Jorge Soler ($4800.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.71 points, 1.06 score
11. Mark Canha ($3400.0) vs. Zac Gallen: 7.2 points, 1.06 score
12. Adolis Garcia ($4900.0) vs. Zach Eflin: 7.54 points, 1.05 score
13. Tommy Pham ($4200.0) vs. Freddy Peralta: 7.34 points, 1.04 score
14. Matt Wallner ($3400.0) vs. Jose Berrios: 6.14 points, 0.98 score
15. Bryan De La Cruz ($3800.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 6.58 points, 0.97 score
This player pool looks a whole lot like it did yesterday. Very interestingly, Royce Lewis’s price came down to $4,700 even though he’s in a much better matchup. He’s going to be extremely popular.
GPP Pool
SP: Peralta, Gallen, Berrios, Nola, Gray
C: Contreras, Realmuto, Jeffers
1B: Vlad, Yandy, Harper, Bell, Kirilloff
2B: Polanco, Julien, Paredes, Turang
3B: Lewis, Polanco, Burger, Bohm, Caminero
SS: Turner, Seager, Bichette, Adames
OF: Carroll, Chisholm, Yelich, Arozarena, Lowe, Springer, Schwarber, Kepler, Canha, Siri, Wallner, Grossman, Sanchez, Soler
Game by Game Previews
TEX @ TB
Jon’s Thoughts
The Rays are a pretty sizeable favorite here (-148), which sounds right to me given what we mentioned about Eovaldi’s struggles. The Rays pitching is clearly setup much better here. My model has the game pretty close, but also my model does that most of the time - it doesn’t really like to put out a big favorite, so I wouldn’t be on either team here.
The bet that the model really likes here is Eovaldi over 3.5 K, which goes against what we talked about before. My skill projection on him is a 22% K%, which seems very reasonable here - and that plus a 75 pitch projection gets him over five projected strikeouts, so I like the over there - let’s book it.
The Evan Carter over 0.5 H+R+RBI hit yesterday, and it’s on here again - but this time the projection/price combo is less appealing at -170. We pointed out yesterday that those H+R+RBI bet props were only profitable over 0.17 yesterday, and this one’s at 0.11 - so I’m staying away personally.
Adolis Garcia under 1.5 strikeouts seems like a good one at near even money, so we’re definitely booking that one!
Projected Game Score:
TB 4.04 - TEX 3.96
TB 50.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.0
2023 Pitcher Stats
Nathan Eovaldi: 25 GS, 2232 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 8.1 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 45.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 51.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Zach Eflin: 31 GS, 2577 Pitches, 26.5 K%, 3.3 BB%, 12.0 SwStr%, 49.9 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%, 50.4 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 84.0 Pitches 5.3 IP, 4.8 H, 2.4 ER, 5.8 K, 1.7 BB, 15.4 FPts
Zach Eflin (TB): 83.0 Pitches 4.98 IP, 4.8 H, 2.3 ER, 5.2 K, 1.2 BB, 14.26 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Nathan Eovaldi - 3.5 strikeouts
Zach Eflin - 5.5 strikeouts
TEX Hitter Projections
1. Marcus Semien: 4.32 PA, 1.0 H, 1.68 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.7 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.21 PA, 1.14 H, 2.15 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.89 FPts
3. Robbie Grossman: 4.01 PA, 0.77 H, 1.27 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.35 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.01 PA, 0.86 H, 1.63 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.54 FPts
5. Nathaniel Lowe: 3.96 PA, 0.96 H, 1.53 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.81 FPts
6. Jonah Heim: 3.81 PA, 0.82 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.99 FPts
7. Leody Taveras: 3.75 PA, 0.9 H, 1.38 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.36 FPts
8. Josh Jung: 3.58 PA, 0.77 H, 1.37 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.64 FPts
9. Evan Carter: 3.41 PA, 0.73 H, 1.27 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.16 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.44 PA, 1.14 H, 1.8 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.36 FPts
2. Junior Caminero: 4.44 PA, 0.94 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.43 FPts
3. Randy Arozarena: 4.33 PA, 0.97 H, 1.67 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.77 FPts
4. Josh Lowe: 4.13 PA, 1.0 H, 1.7 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.29 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 4.04 PA, 0.85 H, 1.59 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.15 FPts
6. Jonathan Aranda: 3.96 PA, 0.75 H, 1.22 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.69 FPts
7. Jose Siri: 3.87 PA, 0.77 H, 1.51 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.91 FPts
8. Taylor Walls: 3.71 PA, 0.63 H, 1.01 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.0 FPts
9. Rene Pinto: 3.26 PA, 0.62 H, 1.13 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.7 FPts
Best Bets
Nathan Eovaldi TEX - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-195.0) - 0.169 value
Evan Carter TEX - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-170.0) - 0.123 value
Adolis Garcia TEX - HitterK Under 1.5 (-110.0) - 0.11 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Randy Arozarena (TB) OF $5400: 8.77 Proj, 1.19 Score
Josh Lowe (TB) OF $4500: 8.29 Proj, 1.18 Score
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $6300: 8.89 Proj, 1.12 Score
Yandy Diaz (TB) 1B $5200: 8.36 Proj, 1.11 Score
Jose Siri (TB) OF $3600: 6.91 Proj, 1.06 Score
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