MLB Postseason Game Previews - October 19
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Tip Jar
You thought I was done when the three game slates ended, and so did I, but I’m not! We have two games here, and it could be the very last multiple-game slate of the year, so let’s hit these games. I also have been trying to bink (as the gamblers say) a cheap DraftKings GPP all postseason and haven’t been able to do it, but I have one more shot at it now. I’ve been max entering like a $0.25 or $1 entry, and it hasn’t gone super well yet but the losses have been minimal - so maybe we can at least get all that back today.
DFS Breakdown
Starting Pitching
It is a mess today on the pitching front.
Postseason pitch counts:
Suarez: 53, 69
Urquidy: 82
Pfaadt: 67, 42
Heaney: 56
In that Heaney game, it was planned that Dane Dunning would come in after him, and that happened - but Dunning ended up only throwing 30 pitches. I can’t see any of these guys going above 90 pitches, and I have projected them all under 75. My projections:
Suarez 74
Urquidy 75
Pfaadt 53
Heaney 50
I want to be pretty thin with my DFS player pool here, and pitching is definitely a key to it. It’s been pretty evenly distributed on these four games slates, which has been surprising for me to see. I think it’s clear that Suarez and Urquidy have the best shots at double-digit points here. Pfaadt was pulled early in has last starting despite keeping the Dodgers off of the board for his 4+ innings with a 2-0 series lead. Now he gets the Phillies down 0-2, so I think there’s a very good chance he doesn’t even face Schwarber that second time. As for Heaney, if he’s pitching well he can probably get into the fifth, but I think the best bet if that he gets yanked after 2-3 innings for Dunning.
So I think my first DFS decision here is just to lock in Suarez & Urquidy in every lineup. It’s an interesting angle to take to play Dane Dunning at $7,000, but that’s just from an ownership perspective. He is probably capped at three innings, and he’s not a strikeout pitcher, so he’d be hard-pressed to get to 10 points in that situation - but if all of these other guys blow maybe his 8-12 points would end up being optimal. I don’t think I’m going to go that way, because I think there’s enough of an edge here in just going 100% Urquidy + Suarez and hoping they both exceed Pfaadt & Heaney by a handful of points - that would put us way ahead. So that’s what I’m doing.
Team Offense
Astros: 73 projected DraftKings points
Rangers: 71
Phillies: 68
D’Backs: 66
Pretty tight here but clearly we like the Astros the most and the D’Backs the least.
Catchers
Maldonado is the worst hitter in these playoffs, and they’ve been swapping in Yainer Diaz for him, so even at the punt cost of $2,800 I will exclude him.
I don’t really want to go in to this with four different catchers, but I can’t really parse between the remaining four. If forced to exclude another, it would be Moreno. He’s just not a good (fantasy) hitter with little power (despite what he’s shown this postseason) and no steals - and he’s at the bottom of the lowest-projected lineup tonight, so I’ll exclude him but I don’t think it’s some slam-dunk thing here and any of these exclusions could cost me any shot at first place, but that’s what we have to do.
1. J.T. Realmuto ($4300.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.95 points, 1.07 score
2. Mitch Garver ($3600.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 7.51 points, 1.07 score
3. Gabriel Moreno ($3400.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 7.43 points, 1.04 score
4. Jonah Heim ($3200.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 7.12 points, 1.02 score
5. Martin Maldonado ($2800.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 5.12 points, 0.73 score
First Base
Cannot possibly leave off Bryce Harper in this spot. I don’t really care for Abreu or Lowe, neither of them showed much power/speed during the season, although once again we’re talking about one game here and any single home run from an excluded player knocks us out.
But we’re going for it here, Abreu and Lowe are gone.
1. Bryce Harper ($5400.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 9.43 points, 1.13 score
2. Jose Abreu ($4100.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 7.72 points, 1.01 score
3. Christian Walker ($4400.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 8.12 points, 1.0 score
4. Nathaniel Lowe ($3900.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 7.15 points, 0.89 score
Second Base
The price on Altuve is hard to take, but he’s the clear top projection. Semien and Marte are in fine spots themselves, and it’s hard to exclude Stott given the how much cheaper he is than the rest of the group. We need to leave in a handful of guys that are priced under $4000, so I might just roll with leaving this whole group in play and see what the optimizer spits out.
1. Jose Altuve ($5700.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 9.71 points, 1.13 score
2. Marcus Semien ($5200.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.85 points, 1.03 score
3. Ketel Marte ($4500.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 8.61 points, 1.0 score
4. Bryson Stott ($3800.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 7.44 points, 0.95 score
Third Base
I’m just going to get rid of Longoria here for the same reasons that I excluded Moreno, as well as the pinch hitting risk. I want a good amount of Bregman here and then sprinkle in some Bohm/Jung.
1. Alex Bregman ($4800.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 8.54 points, 1.1 score
2. Alec Bohm ($3700.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 6.99 points, 0.93 score
3. Evan Longoria ($3000.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 6.06 points, 0.92 score
4. Josh Jung ($4000.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 6.67 points, 0.92 score
Shortstop
I pretty much just want Seager and Turner from this group, so I’m going to try that out - but I doubt it’s going to work out when I run the optimizer for a bunch of lineups. Those prices are way up there and the projections don’t even really jive with the cost.
If I have to, I’ll throw Perdomo back in there but try to keep the exposure as low as possible.
1. Corey Seager ($6200.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 9.88 points, 1.13 score
2. Trea Turner ($5600.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 8.78 points, 1.04 score
3. Jeremy Pena ($3400.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 6.99 points, 0.97 score
4. Geraldo Perdomo ($2900.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 5.56 points, 0.73 score
Outfield
Michael Brantley is the model’s favorite, but there is a concern here that maybe the model isn’t judging fairly. They have been swapping in Chas McCormick for him for defensive purposes. This usually isn’t a consideration until late in the game, so it doesn’t make a huge difference to us but could cost him a plate appearance. The Astros have also moved their lineup around, so we can’t lock in projected lineup right now, and it’s extra tough because this is the late game - so we might not even have a lineup until after decisions have been made.
I’m not sure if Mauricio Dubon will be in the lineup, only two of Brantley/Dubon/McCormick can start, so I might just exclude all three of them there and hope some other people get caught after the first lock starting one of them that isn’t playing. But the model loves Brantley here, so maybe I’ll just exclude Dubon & McCormick and hope Brantley ends up at the top of that lineup again like he did last night.
If the lineups come out before the first game, maybe I’ll change some of this stuff. But we have to trim down the player pool, so here’s who I am going to exclude for now:
Alek Thomas, Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick
I’m tempted to exclude Castellanos as well, whose price just doesn’t reflect what he has done in the last couple of seasons - and don’t give me any of this “he’s hot in the playoffs” stuff! Let’s just do that, that’ll be one of my big stands on the night.
1. Michael Brantley ($3300.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 8.56 points, 1.2 score
2. Kyle Tucker ($5100.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 9.58 points, 1.2 score
3. Kyle Schwarber ($4700.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 9.16 points, 1.19 score
4. Yordan Alvarez ($6300.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 10.26 points, 1.19 score
5. Corbin Carroll ($5500.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 9.39 points, 1.12 score
6. Tommy Pham ($3500.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 8.04 points, 1.1 score
7. Adolis Garcia ($5000.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.98 points, 1.1 score
8. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3200.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 7.18 points, 1.0 score
9. Evan Carter ($4200.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 8.55 points, 0.97 score
10. Mauricio Dubon ($2900.0) vs. Andrew Heaney: 6.75 points, 0.94 score
11. Brandon Marsh ($3000.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 6.57 points, 0.91 score
12. Leody Taveras ($3100.0) vs. Jose Urquidy: 6.51 points, 0.9 score
13. Nick Castellanos ($4600.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 6.67 points, 0.86 score
14. Alek Thomas ($2800.0) vs. Ranger Suarez: 5.89 points, 0.82 score
15. Johan Rojas ($2900.0) vs. Brandon Pfaadt: 5.27 points, 0.69 score
The Optimizer
So yeah it turns out that I can’t lock in Suarez & Urquidy and then optimize any lineups unless I get some of these cheaper guys back in the player pool.
I had to re-configure it and run it to get the 20 lineups I want. I don’t think anybody really cares about the details here, but I ended up with 100% exposure on Urquidy, Suarez, and Trea Turner. And then we have 95% on Brantley, and an ugly 75% on Maldonado - but I can live with that. So my 20 lineups are in for $1.25 each, wish me luck.
Game by Game Previews
PHI @ ARI
I really don’t think we see Pfaadt for long in this spot. I think it’s possible they just go with him once through the lineup, and I doubt he’s in there to face Schwarber-Turner-Harper again if there are men on base and things are happening in the second or third inning. So you can bet the under 3.5 strikeouts line here.
We have a couple O/U’s that are higher than we’ve seen for most of these playoffs, and this one sits at 9. My model is always high, but in this case it’s not all that much higher above, so I could get into an under bet here. You could do narrative stuff like the Phillies won’t have that crowd hype behind them. I have my doubts that that kind of stuff matters too much - but maybe it does. And the D’Backs will be in total desperation mode so they’ll be playing every single matchup they can. They have three lefties in that bullpen, so expect to see those names up against Schwarber and Harper. Not that Schwarber and Harper can’t pound lefties too, but they’re both worse against lefties than righties.
So I would ride with Pfaadt under 3.5 strikeouts and the under here.
Projected Game Score:
PHI 4.72 - ARI 4.54
PHI 51.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 9.26
2023 Pitcher Stats
Ranger Suarez: 22 GS, 2023 Pitches, 22.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 10.4 SwStr%, 44.5 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 48.8 GB%, 8 Brl%
Brandon Pfaadt: 18 GS, 1612 Pitches, 22.3 K%, 6.2 BB%, 12.3 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 32.6 GB%, 12 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Ranger Suarez (PHI): 74.0 Pitches 4.72 IP, 4.6 H, 2.3 ER, 3.6 K, 1.9 BB, 10.27 FPts
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 53.0 Pitches 3.25 IP, 3.4 H, 1.8 ER, 3.0 K, 1.1 BB, 7.65 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Ranger Suarez - 2.5 strikeouts
Brandon Pfaadt - 3.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.43 PA, 0.85 H, 1.9 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.16 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.29 PA, 1.07 H, 1.79 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.78 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.17 PA, 1.02 H, 1.85 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.43 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 4.12 PA, 1.02 H, 1.58 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.99 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.0 PA, 1.01 H, 1.56 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.44 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 3.89 PA, 0.95 H, 1.69 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.95 FPts
7. Nick Castellanos: 3.79 PA, 0.91 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.67 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.57 PA, 0.8 H, 1.31 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.57 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.4 PA, 0.73 H, 1.01 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.14 SB, 5.27 FPts
ARI Hitter Projections
1. Ketel Marte: 4.6 PA, 1.11 H, 1.83 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.61 FPts
2. Corbin Carroll: 4.47 PA, 1.07 H, 1.64 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.32 SB, 9.39 FPts
3. Tommy Pham: 4.28 PA, 0.92 H, 1.53 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.04 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.25 PA, 0.94 H, 1.7 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.12 FPts
5. Gabriel Moreno: 4.2 PA, 1.1 H, 1.57 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.43 FPts
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 4.07 PA, 1.03 H, 1.62 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.18 FPts
7. Alek Thomas: 3.85 PA, 0.87 H, 1.29 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.89 FPts
8. Evan Longoria: 3.56 PA, 0.72 H, 1.33 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.06 FPts
9. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.58 PA, 0.69 H, 0.93 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.56 FPts
Best Bets
Brandon Pfaadt ARI - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (+125.0) - 0.21 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $4700: 9.16 Proj, 1.19 Score
Bryce Harper (PHI) 1B $5400: 9.43 Proj, 1.13 Score
Corbin Carroll (ARI) OF $5500: 9.39 Proj, 1.12 Score
Tommy Pham (ARI) OF $3500: 8.04 Proj, 1.1 Score
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) C $4300: 7.95 Proj, 1.07 Score
HOU @ TEX
Same bets we’ve been seeing all post season popup here. Another change for an under on the strikeouts with Heaney. Under 3.5 for -145 is just barely qualifying, and that’s not a very appealing price tag - but we’ll take it, I don’t think he gets past the third inning here honestly and the Astros make a bunch of contact .
Projected Game Score:
HOU 5.48 - TEX 5.18
HOU 51.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.66
2023 Pitcher Stats
Jose Urquidy: 10 GS, 1096 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%, 36.5 GB%, 9 Brl%
Andrew Heaney: 28 GS, 2603 Pitches, 23.6 K%, 9.4 BB%, 12.8 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%, 41.9 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Jose Urquidy (HOU): 75.0 Pitches 4.42 IP, 4.6 H, 2.4 ER, 3.4 K, 1.6 BB, 8.83 FPts
Andrew Heaney (TEX): 50.0 Pitches 3.06 IP, 3.0 H, 1.6 ER, 2.6 K, 1.3 BB, 6.94 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jose Urquidy - 2.5 strikeouts
Andrew Heaney - 3.5 strikeouts
HOU Hitter Projections
1. Jose Altuve: 4.56 PA, 1.07 H, 1.91 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.71 FPts
2. Michael Brantley: 4.58 PA, 1.25 H, 1.9 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.56 FPts
3. Alex Bregman: 4.45 PA, 1.0 H, 1.68 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.54 FPts
4. Yordan Alvarez: 4.37 PA, 1.07 H, 2.1 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.26 FPts
5. Jose Abreu: 4.22 PA, 0.97 H, 1.68 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.72 FPts
6. Kyle Tucker: 4.11 PA, 1.0 H, 1.83 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.19 SB, 9.58 FPts
7. Mauricio Dubon: 4.01 PA, 0.97 H, 1.51 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.75 FPts
8. Jeremy Pena: 3.89 PA, 0.93 H, 1.48 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.99 FPts
9. Martin Maldonado: 3.48 PA, 0.6 H, 1.13 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.12 FPts
TEX Hitter Projections
1. Marcus Semien: 4.41 PA, 1.04 H, 1.79 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.85 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.3 PA, 1.18 H, 2.23 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.88 FPts
3. Evan Carter: 4.25 PA, 0.91 H, 1.6 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.55 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.1 PA, 0.93 H, 1.83 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.98 FPts
5. Jonah Heim: 3.99 PA, 0.88 H, 1.54 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.12 FPts
6. Mitch Garver: 3.92 PA, 0.81 H, 1.57 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.51 FPts
7. Nathaniel Lowe: 3.82 PA, 0.92 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.15 FPts
8. Josh Jung: 3.65 PA, 0.85 H, 1.56 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.67 FPts
9. Leody Taveras: 3.47 PA, 0.84 H, 1.33 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.51 FPts
Best Bets
Martin Maldonado HOU - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-110.0) - 0.187 value
Yordan Alvarez HOU - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-125.0) - 0.151 value
Andrew Heaney TEX - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (-145.0) - 0.144 value
Jose Altuve HOU - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.101 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Michael Brantley (HOU) OF $3300: 8.56 Proj, 1.2 Score
Kyle Tucker (HOU) OF $5100: 9.58 Proj, 1.2 Score
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) OF $6300: 10.26 Proj, 1.19 Score
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $6200: 9.88 Proj, 1.13 Score
Jose Altuve (HOU) 2B $5700: 9.71 Proj, 1.13 Score
That’s it, and that’s all. I really do think this will be the last game previews of the season - so I hope they have helped and people have enjoyed them! Talk to you next time!