Money Matchups, May 21st
Analyzing the best hitter and pitcher matchups on today's MLB slate
MLB Savant data is not available yet, so I’m getting money matchups out first. There’s a ton of rain in the forecast, so it’s a tough slate to analyze and play with confidence. But here’s what I’ve got for you today!
Hunter Brown vs. Rays
The Rays will probably roll out seven left-handed bats today against Brown. And for most right-handed pitchers, that would be bad news. But not Brown. Since last year, he has not struggled with the splits thing whatsoever.
K% vs. RHB: 25.1%
K% vs. LHB: 28.2%
He has a 13.6% SwStr% and a .283 xwOBA allowed against lefties dating back to last year. His four-seamer has been phenomenal in any matchup, and then he has this changeup that is a real lefty-neutralizer.
The Rays have a team 23.4% K% against righties this year, that’s the fourth-highest in the league. And they are not an offense that is knocking guys around very often with a well below-average .323 xwOBA.
The prices on Brown are tough.
→ 7+ Strikeouts -135
→ 18+ Outs -195
→ Under 4.5 Hits -105
The best line my model finds is the over 8.5 strikeouts +280 on FanDuel. My model projects Brown for 8.8 strikeouts - a huge number. It should be a big game from Hunter Brown, who just might end up getting some Cy Young votes this year.