NFL DFS Week 10 Lineup Review

A review of the NFL DFS lineup I put out for this NFL week

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The Lineup

This was my least favorite week of the year so far. I did not feel good about the lineup, so I just plugged in the few values we had, leaned into the projections, and hoped for the best.

It was not a winning week, but I played less volume because of the uncertainty, so the -10% ROI didn’t make a significant dent in the bankroll. I also took second in my friend’s contest, so I’d call it a push.

I was not coming off of Alvin Kamara or Josh Downs. Those were locks. I also very much liked the Hopkins play, as his price had not adjusted to his full-time role with the Chiefs. I liked the idea of Taysom Hill at tight end. With Olave out, I thought he could see an elevated role and maybe even steal a touchdown like he’s prone to doing. He did not steal a touchdown, and Kamara couldn’t get one either - so that’s cool. The Aaron Jones play was pretty obvious to me and most of the field, as the Vikings faced a horrible defense as a big favorite - but they fell flat.

Overall, Barkley was the only play that truly busted. I was also saved by a DST with that nine-sack game from the Patriots - so that’s luck that went my way.

This was the lowest-scoring week of the year, I believe. I was feeling pretty great going into the late games with Barkley and Herbert, but Barkley busted for me at 5% owned. He could not get a single one of the Eagles four touchdowns. It wasn’t a phenomenal play, but clearly, there’s some bad luck there.

That’s been a theme for me. I have not gotten the big game from my expensive running backs this year. But it will come.

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Results

Weekly ROI Results:

Week 1: +215%
Week 2: +6%
Week 3: -6%
Week 4: -49%
Week 5: -59%
Week 6: +81%
Week 7: -52%
Week 8: +43%
Week 9: +11%
Week 10: -10%

Overall: +10%

Weekly Head-to-Head Results

Week 1: 75/76 (99%)
Week 2: 62/76 (82%)
Week 3: 54/76 (71%)
Week 4: 37/101 (37%)
Week 5: 25/79 (32%)
Week 6: 47/58 (81%)
Week 7: 30/77 (39%)
Week 8: 48/81 (59%)
Week 9: 52/78 (67%)
Week 10: 41/71 (58%)

Overall: 471/773 (61%)