NFL DFS Week 11 Lineup Review
A review of the NFL DFS lineup I put out for this NFL week
The Lineup
This was the least I’ve tinkered with a lineup all season long. It was very clear to me that the play was to cram in all of CMC, Kamara, and Achane with the Jameis Winston value at QB. Achane had a nice game, but CMC and Kamara were pretty disappointing (although you do really see the floors there as they both exceeded a dozen points despite not having much go their way).
The result was a push. It would have been a bad week if not for a Sunday morning swap of Cedric Tillman → Jauan Jennings. After Kittle was marked doubtful, it became pretty clear that Jennings was the better play, and that paid off big time.
Results
The lineup was good enough to cash in double ups but missed the cash line in Hundos and tourneys, but it was a solid 68% win rate in head to heads.
Weekly ROI Results:
Week 1: +215%
Week 2: +6%
Week 3: -6%
Week 4: -49%
Week 5: -59%
Week 6: +81%
Week 7: -52%
Week 8: +43%
Week 9: +11%
Week 10: -10%
Week 11: +1%Overall: +9%
Weekly Head-to-Head Results
Week 1: 75/76 (99%)
Week 2: 62/76 (82%)
Week 3: 54/76 (71%)
Week 4: 37/101 (37%)
Week 5: 25/79 (32%)
Week 6: 47/58 (81%)
Week 7: 30/77 (39%)
Week 8: 48/81 (59%)
Week 9: 52/78 (67%)
Week 10: 41/71 (58%)
Week 11: 55/81 (68%)Overall: 526/854 (68%)
The head-to-head has proven a success, and that has kept the overall profit positive. I have yet to have the week where everything goes right or I get the 40+ point explosion for a player not universally owned. So I’m hoping we get some positive variance in this final month, and we can get the ROI to 15-20%.
On to week 12!