NFL DFS Week 12 Lineup Review
A review of the NFL DFS lineup I put out for this NFL week
The Lineup
Things were looking bad early on Sunday. DeVito had like like eight yards in the first quarter, and Chiefs not named Hunt or Kelce kept scoring touchdowns. I came out of the 1:00 games only with one good score from Achane.
And the first halves of the late games didn’t go super well for me either, but then a swam of points hit after 5:30. I had logged off and was doing dinner and baths with the kids. After I got one of them into the bath, I opened my phone and saw numbers I was not expecting. It was fantastic. Sutton and Meyers both went nuts, and JSN had a nice game himself. All three of those guys had massive second halves, and it took me to a very nice week.
The lineup changed quite a bit after the news that Brock Purdy wouldn’t play. I initially had CMC and Jennings. Jennings was an easy pass without Purdy. I still considered McCaffrey, but figured out pretty quick that I wouldn’t be paying the big tag for him in a downgraded spot.
That is the angle I’ve been playing all year. I’m being extremely price-sensitive. Buy the players whose prices don’t reflect a positive change in environment, and sell the players whose prices don’t reflect a negative change. The CMC price did not reflect that negative change, and it turned out to be the proper fade.
I’d make the Kareem Hunt play 100 times out of 100. That price was hugely wrong. He did not come through, but he was 90% owned, so it didn’t matter too much.
Anyway, I was bailed out by the mid-range wide receivers. I feel pretty lucky about it this week. Here are the results.
Results
I cashed in every content. I took 10th in both Hundos for a 3:1 return, and was in the top 10% of the double ups.
I won 97% of head-to-head and more than doubled my money overall. Shout out to me!
Weekly ROI Results:
Week 1: +215%
Week 2: +6%
Week 3: -6%
Week 4: -49%
Week 5: -59%
Week 6: +81%
Week 7: -52%
Week 8: +43%
Week 9: +11%
Week 10: -10%
Week 11: +1%
Week 12: +107%Overall: +14%
Weekly Head-to-Head Results
Week 1: 75/76 (99%)
Week 2: 62/76 (82%)
Week 3: 54/76 (71%)
Week 4: 37/101 (37%)
Week 5: 25/79 (32%)
Week 6: 47/58 (81%)
Week 7: 30/77 (39%)
Week 8: 48/81 (59%)
Week 9: 52/78 (67%)
Week 10: 41/71 (58%)
Week 11: 55/81 (68%)
Week 12: 74/76 (97%)Overall: 600/930 (77%)
And it’s Thanksgiving week! That means two things.
We have a Thanksgiving slate to play on Thursday.
I have two fewer days to write sports stuff this week (off work Thursday and Friday)
The Thanksgiving NFL slate is probably my favorite DFS occurrence of the entire year. It’s the best, so I will be getting full analysis out on that without a doubt.
I’ll do my best to get a Sunday slate analysis out as well, but I can’t 100% guarantee I can get it done since I’ll be very busy Thursday doing the Thanksgiving business with my family.
I don’t think the Thanksgiving slate should count for tracking. Having just three games makes things pretty random, that’s more of a slate you just play for fun. I’ll probably even attack with a bunch of lineups and just try to luck into one paying off big.
Talk to you later!