NFL DFS Week 3 Lineup Review
A review of the NFL DFS lineup I put out for this NFL week
This was by far the toughest slate of the young season. I was decently nervous about it, and there were some big mistakes made in retrospect. But at the end of the day, it was effectively a push.
The Lineup
Quarterback
I was between Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. I couldn’t afford Murray until a few things changed with Friday news, but I ended up getting to him comfortably. After a big first drive, he busted out and we only got 16 points, which is not worth the money at all. That game fell almost 20 points below the projected O/U, so it was a bit of a trap game.
Geno didn’t do much better, scoring just 11 points at a cheaper price tag. The best way to go turned out to be to Andy Dalton, who ripped off 28 points, so that’s wild.
I think the lesson to be learned here is that we really need to lean into cheaper QBs. QB scoring is pretty tight, and you don’t see that many huge ceiling games that you have to have in order to cash. Passing rates are down, and there are only a few QBs who can go absolutely bonkers in the box score, so I will be looking more closely at the $5000-$6000 QBs in the weeks to come.
Running Backs
This is where I made a mistake. I pivoted down from Zach Charbonnet to Cam Akers, and that cost me quite a bit. Charbonnet scored twice and scored 26 points, while Akers put up just 10. I wanted the $1300 so I could get to my preferred QB and TE, but it didn’t work out.
I also got to Murray by going down from Alvin Kamara to DeVon Achane. That also turned out to be a bad choice. The Dolphins scored just three points, which put Achane in the pits. Kamara wasn’t all that great either, but he still managed 16 points due to a massive workload.
And the Jordan Mason play didn’t work well, which shows you the floor of a running back who doesn’t catch passes. That didn’t hurt that much with his high ownership.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith got hurt and missed the last couple of drives, but still had a decent game. I think that was the right play.
I also believe the Brandon Aiyuk play was the right one. This lineup lost to everybody who played Jauan Jennings, who led the slate with 49.5 points. I was off Jennings in the write-up because I just wanted to get to the big three names ahead of him with Aiyuk, Mason, and Kittle. Jennings was cheap, but I still figured he wouldn’t see a ton of usage. I suppose I should have changed my perspective after Kittle was ruled out. That moved him up the ladder in usage. That was certainly a 100th-percentile outcome for Jennings, but I can’t say it was a bad play that just got lucky. For $4100 or whatever he was, I should have considered him more.
The play that saved me was sticking on Diontae Johnson. The Panthers had no trouble moving the ball, and Johnson indeed benefitted from a more competent QB.
Tight End
I was happy to get to Jake Ferguson, and that play worked nicely. He was the third-highest-scoring tight end of the week to Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet. Goedert took a bunch of the A.J. Brown usage and became the main playmaker in the passing game after Smith went down. Not many people played him, but he should have been considered a bit more with all that usage from Brown available.
Results
Double Ups: I was not cashing most of the day, and then at the end, I sneaked into the cash, but at the last second, I fell out. I finished in the 44th percentile, just missing cash. I play very light on the double-ups; I just enter one or two to track where my lineup is versus the field. Most of my money is in the head-to-heads.
Hundos: No cash. I finished 43rd, 38th, and 36th - so it's still not a bad showing considering all the plays I missed, but we’ve gotta be in the top 22 to cash there.
Head to Heads: Successful again. I took on 59 other people and beat 43 of them for a 73% win rate.
Overall, for the week, it was an 11% ROI.
Weekly ROI Results:
Week 1: +215%
Week 2: +6%
Week 3: -6%Overall: +64%
Weekly Head-to-Head Results
Week 1: 58/58 (100%)
Week 2: 44/51 (86%)
Week 3: 43/59 (73%)Overall: 86%