NFL DFS Week 4 Lineup Review
A review of the NFL DFS lineup I put out for this NFL week
This week got a bit tougher after Friday’s injury report. We had a ton of big names missing the game, and that shook up the DFS landscape. I ended up making some big changes to my lineup on Sunday morning, and it cost me.
The Lineup
I initially had Hubbard at RB instead of Hall. After Deebo Samuel was ruled in, I had to get away from Brandon Aiyuk. I also wanted to get to Higgins at tight end. So I went from Aiyuk to Tre Tucker (a good play) and then from Tremble to Higgins (both sucked, but Tremble put up zero, so it was a positive move). That gave me the money to upgrade with. I chose to go from Hubbard to Breece Hall with it. I didn’t love Hall when writing up the slate, but he was clearly a better raw projection play, and with all of that money to spend it made sense to me. This was the worst game of his career, so I think we can say there was some bad luck for me there.
The other big blow was the goose egg from Rashee Rice, who left the game in the first quarter with a knee injury.
The core plays who didn’t get hurt were all successful. Daniels, Johnson, Collins, and Robinson all smashed. But the Rice and Hall plays ended any chance I had a decent week. That’s the way she goes!
Results
Double Ups: Finished 5,361 out of 8,620. Not close to cash.
Hundos: The third straight week of missing the cash line in Hundos, and it was the worst performance so far. I finished 56th, 54th, and 54th.
Head to Heads: Won just 20 of 58 matchups (35.4%)
Weekly ROI Results:
Week 1: +215%
Week 2: +6%
Week 3: -6%
Week 4: -49%Overall: +19%
Weekly Head-to-Head Results
Week 1: 58/58 (100%)
Week 2: 44/51 (86%)
Week 3: 43/59 (73%)
Week 4: 20/58 (35%)Overall: 73%
To put it simply:
Week 1: Huge Win
Week 2: Small Win
Week 3: Small Loss
Week 4: Moderate Loss
Still positive for the year, but all of the profit was from week one. There’s going to be variance and losses along the way; this isn’t an easy game to play. The key really comes down to making the right choices inside the narrow player pool. Every week so far, there have been a ton of ways to make a really good lineup from the player pool - I just haven’t ended up making the right choices at the end of the week. Hopefully, you’re making those final decisions better than I am! We are moving on to week 5! Let me know if you’re having any success so far in the comments if you’re playing. Peace out!